Coronavirus Thread

[Corky]

We're going to have another lockdown in January, not in doubt. Christmas "freedom" is the trade-off.

[Chrysalis]

On 24/11/2020 at 16:06, Leicester_Loyal said:

It's not spreading because of supermarkets, schools, colleges or universities then? The virus will no doubt spread when meeting up with friends and family, but this is only a small percentage of where it's spreading, even if the small number of people doing it stopped, it wouldn't reduce the case count by a couple of hundred a day.

 

It's just yet another statement to put the blame sorely at the feet of the public

No its easier to blame it on the people instead.

[Chrysalis]

1 minute ago, Corky said:

We're going to have another lockdown in January, not in doubt. Christmas "freedom" is the trade-off.

For me its no different, I have been in lockdown since march.  

[Chrysalis]

On 24/11/2020 at 18:10, kingfox said:

Leicester’s cases have started to drop over the past five days, little mention of that though, they’d rather concentrate on our high infection rate and certain areas where the virus is supposedly accelerating. 
 

With the Christmas household announcement though, it will probably get extremely messy in January and the whole of the UK’s numbers will accelerate again, people won’t listen anyway, but to have approval from the Government is extremely risky business.

Its not worth mentioning to be honest, the trend needs to persist probably for 2 weeks minimum, if you look at the last 28 days data, you can see multiple periods of dropping case loads followed by increases.  We had a little stagnation from school half term, once that effect is done, and people are out for christmas shopping it will rise again.  The cases are not hitting low levels again either until next school summer holiday period, or vaccination.

[Chrysalis]

On 24/11/2020 at 18:41, Countryfox said:

Soulsby banging on about hoping the government gives him the right tools to get out of tier 3 in his usual sarcastic manner ..  you’ve got the same tools as everyone else you plonker ! ..  so stop fvckin moaning and try and improve things to levels other parts of the country are achieving. 

Have the government done the following then?

 

Gave him powers to close schools and send uni students home.

Provided funding for housing to decrease over crowded accommodation.

Provided extra police forces to enforce rules everywhere.

Provided him the same level of funds as manchester and liverpool so businesses have less motivation to break rules.

Stopped sending covid infected patients from India to Leicester hospitals? (conveniently left out of the news)

Announced a long overdue investment in the area to encourage higher paid employers into the area.

 

It was interesting that other mayors collaborated his experience when they too had to deal with the government.

Edited 26 November 2020 by Chrysalis

[Trav Le Bleu]

If you took the Tiers map and put it next to a population density map (on a county basis) they would be practically identical.

 

No surprise really. If there's been one constant in all this it's that close proximity of people increases transmission.

[Chrysalis]

On 24/11/2020 at 19:35, Facecloth said:

Not only this but things like the three strikes rule for sickness should be illegal.  But lets blame the people instead.  In higher positions like management, you are more likely to see better policies, than say working on a shop floor, Leicester is a poverty area with poverty jobs, so its no surprise things like the workshop factories have been exposed.  Walkers crisps isn't a lot better in that regard as well.

[Chrysalis]

10 hours ago, Captain... said:

https://www.centreforcities.org/data/coronavirus-cases-uk-cities-large-towns/

 

This is an up to date list of covid rates, it seems anyone with an infection rate of over 200 per 100,000 is highest level although it's not quite as clear cut as that Warrington is middle tier.

 

This gives an indicator of where Leicester ranks in the covid league.

Is a link to poverty looking at that data, which isnt surprising.  I dont just mean personal levels of poverty either but also resource poverty.

[Chrysalis]

10 hours ago, adam said:

Cant sit in a small restaurant 2 metres apart from everyone but can go shopping around the high cross with 100s of others. Makes sense. Its gonna be impossible to get out of tier 3. 

How many restaurants have you seen with 2m distancing 

[Nod.E]

[Chrysalis]

7 hours ago, kingfox said:

It was working at the back end of August when we got it down to 25 per 100,000 people.

 

They took the handbrake off certain things, which coincided with Schools and Uni’s going back, then over the past three months it’s sky rocketed again.

 

Since this new second national lockdown though, cases in Leicester over the past week have began to drop, our rate few weeks ago was 530 per 100,000 at one point, most recent number on the Council website says it’s gone down to 350 per 100,000.

 

How long do you leave it before you take the handbrake off again? We made great progress in August, data clearly shows that, yet you open certain things back up again, especially Schools and Uni’s, then unsurprisingly kaboom, the rate gets out of control again.

What happens in July and August every year?

[Chrysalis]

4 hours ago, Mark 'expert' Lawrenson said:

Bloody Liverpool must of been mentioned 30 times, I’m in a real huff about this because whilst Leicester was still under severe restrictions Liverpool carried on like there was no virus. I know someone who visited Liverpool and their exact words were “it’s as if the virus didn’t exist” no masks etc pubs were normal no social distancing. 
I object to them being lauded as some heroic City.

 

But but but "people in Leicester dont care, they dont behave themselves whilst everyone else is".

[Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot]

I'm in Notts and we're in tier 3. We're below national average and only went bananas with infections when the unis came back and were mass tested. It stinks if you ask me, more and more I'm starting to agree with Mr YouTube conspiricy theorist Bell end. It's hard not to see this as some sort of mental breakdown when that's what it is. 

[fuchsntf]

Its an Alien plot...Trump, Johnson,Grove/Hancock..etc. do let their human/reptilien fasade drop occasionally..

I mean..ffs look how they walk, and their Eyes have become with their Facial expressions a massive giveaway....

 

No Human govt, would have even dared this lockdown/ Holidays/Lockdown/xmas,Lockdown....stragedy..

Businesses Agreeing with all & sundry,without a murmur..!!

 

We have been slowly infultrated, curfews & lockdowns, so we dont see the saucers landing...

& To Beat it all...my Medi's being tampered with....!!  Plus they have slown down my Bloody wheelchair...

 

since I joined FT, they have sabotaged my Bloody  Grammer,&  punctuation ....and it doesn't Snow at xmas,anymore

But they are Scared of Santa...they are playing clever,so  to see we have still something honest & True to Keep us conveniently happy..!!

you dare and tell me I am Not right...I know I have spoke to all my nurses & doctors...,and after 40 years vor the First Time  my Wife nods happily..!!

Don t worry about them coming, they are already here,  their Russian & Chinas Experiment was successful..!!

 

And they tried to Blame it all on our cute animals.....

[leicsmac]

5 hours ago, st albans fox said:

 

Can either of you suggest a strategy that does ? 

Repeated for emphasis.

[Dan LCFC]

2 hours ago, Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot said:

I'm in Notts and we're in tier 3. We're below national average and only went bananas with infections when the unis came back and were mass tested. It stinks if you ask me, more and more I'm starting to agree with Mr YouTube conspiricy theorist Bell end. It's hard not to see this as some sort of mental breakdown when that's what it is. 

If people aren't cynical by now then they never will be.

[leicsmac]

Brief update from this side of the world, cases had been creeping up recently then they jumped to a (comparatively) big number of 550-600 cases yesterday and today, more young people catching it this time so less hospitalizations.

 

No lockdown, but some restrictions county wide on restaurants and schools doing only two days per week staggered for groups of students. Gatherings of above 100 people not allowed. Other than that, things are reasonably calm, no one having problem with masks being worn in a public environment. Hopefully numbers still start to wind down again as the restrictions have an effect.

 

Amazing how two different places with similar population numbers and one big important cultural and financial centre each can differ in the way things have turned out.

 

[leicsmac]

Something else that occurs: there seems to be a prevailing attitude, not only on here but also out in many parts of the wider world, that an incompetent government response (and yes, judging by the numbers the UK response as well as other places has been incompetent) means that there should be no real kind of response/restrictions at all.

 

Now, with that assumed, a couple of thoughts.

 

Firstly, how does no restrictions at all actually cause anything other than healthcare system and subsequent business collapse anyway? And if I'm reading the room wrong and the naysayers want a different kind of response rather than none at all, what exactly would that response be and how would it avoid the above outcome?

 

[Nalis]

1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

Brief update from this side of the world, cases had been creeping up recently then they jumped to a (comparatively) big number of 550-600 cases yesterday and today, more young people catching it this time so less hospitalizations.

 

No lockdown, but some restrictions county wide on restaurants and schools doing only two days per week staggered for groups of students. Gatherings of above 100 people not allowed. Other than that, things are reasonably calm, no one having problem with masks being worn in a public environment. Hopefully numbers still start to wind down again as the restrictions have an effect.

 

Amazing how two different places with similar population numbers and one big important cultural and financial centre each can differ in the way things have turned out.

 

Also helps if the people are very compliant in general.

[leicsmac]

35 minutes ago, Nalis said:

Also helps if the people are very compliant in general.

Compliant when the need is understood, not so much when it is not.

 

Ask Park Gyun-Hye how compliant the people were for her governance back in 2016, for instance.

 

Edit: oh, and the churches this year, too.

Edited 27 November 2020 by leicsmac

[Mapperleyfox]

7 hours ago, Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot said:

I'm in Notts and we're in tier 3. We're below national average and only went bananas with infections when the unis came back and were mass tested. It stinks if you ask me, more and more I'm starting to agree with Mr YouTube conspiricy theorist Bell end. It's hard not to see this as some sort of mental breakdown when that's what it is. 

Nottinghamshire reduces infections by about 70% and ends up in a higher tier despite being locked down. Makes perfect sense.

 

I'm by no means a conspiracy theorist but some of the decisions and changes of direction appear to be mind boggling and totally irrational.

 

When you see the doubling down on strategies that don't appear to work particularly well, changing goalposts on what metrics to use to suit agendas, and refusing to listen to broader scientific advice then you have to start wondering if there's something more sinister going on, or whether they're so far down the road that their pride won't allow them to back down.

[bmt]

2 hours ago, leicsmac said:

Something else that occurs: there seems to be a prevailing attitude, not only on here but also out in many parts of the wider world, that an incompetent government response (and yes, judging by the numbers the UK response as well as other places has been incompetent) means that there should be no real kind of response/restrictions at all.

 

Now, with that assumed, a couple of thoughts.

 

Firstly, how does no restrictions at all actually cause anything other than healthcare system and subsequent business collapse anyway? And if I'm reading the room wrong and the naysayers want a different kind of response rather than none at all, what exactly would that response be and how would it avoid the above outcome?

 

I don't think to criticise something you need to have a better alternative.

 

However, I think here there would be a myriad of different responses but the key differences with what the government has done with all of them would be:

- Clear messages to the population to avoid confusion, and no mixed messages 

- A spelled out end game for any new restrictions and rules (what the rules aim for and how it will achieve it) 

- Evidence that a proper cost-benefit analysis has been done and decisions aren't being made based on media hype 

- A unified approach which doesn't try to shift blame to groups of the public (eg. students)

- An equitable response which doesn't prioritise London ahead of other places

 

For me there have always been two preferable paths which the government could have taken but haven't:

1. Very strict initial lockdown to get domestic cases down to near-zero, strict track and trace, complete halt on most international activities/travel and very harsh testing/quarantining where travel is unavoidable. Similar to NZ, China, areas of Asia. End game: wait until a vaccine is produced whilst accepting economic contraction in areas such as airlines etc. Pros: low deaths, very protective of population. Cons: sharp shocks to the economy, life comes to complete standstill during the initial harsh lockdown.

2. Very strict protection of vulnerable groups whilst letting lower risk groups act similar to normal albeit with masks, capacity limits on things, and testing to control spread. Similar to what Sweden intended to do but they messed it up. Pros: economy is mostly protected. Cons: higher deaths, life would be hell for vulnerable groups, NHS may become overwhelmed if spread is quicker than intended.

 

We have done mixes of both with no clear evidence as to why, and no clear end game. Pros: you can say you've tried to protect health and the economy. Cons: does nothing to protect health or the economy. Too much importance is placed on trying to retain political power and not enough on what is good for the country in the long term.

 

 

[ealingfox]

Whatever the reasons are, they really haven't helped themselves in justifying lockdowns by making most people no better off and many worse off after a month lockdown that was unpopular to start with.

 

It's all the ammo the usual suspects need to argue that lockdowns don't work.

[stix]

16 hours ago, FoxesDeb said:

A Sage report has already quite clearly stated that cases were already on the rise in the wider community before schools reopened though? As I said, I'd like to see evidence to back up your claim, rather than just opinion.

 

https://schoolsweek.co.uk/child-infection-rate-rise-began-when-schools-reopened-but-direct-link-unproven-says-sage/

 

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-schools/no-clear-link-between-school-opening-and-covid-surge-study-finds-idUKKBN26L3UE

The only ‘evidence’ I can offer is the fact that at my child’s school, the whole of Year 7, 6/8 classes in Year 8 & the whole of Year 9 are currently self isolating. 

[Guest Harrydc]

Out of interest, when will some of you say 'enough is enough'? Or will you do everything the government tells you to do even if it makes absolutely no sense? Yes, I'll be that guy. It lockdowns work, why would you put places in a higher tier than they were before? (I'll await some response about not undoing our hard work)

 

It's very important to ask questions when there is our freedom and livelihoods involved.