2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[Rsswmu]

1 hour ago, Deeg67 said:

The problem is that Liverpool doesn't have to do anything remotely amazing, they just need to TCOB against weak opposition.  That's why it would be huge for them to drop points against United.  A draw would be a huge win for us.

 

Chelski could certainly drop points at Villa, not impossible.  We're ahead of them, so a draw in our league game is still a good result for us.

Winning 4 games in 10 days is a big ask for any team. Like us they don’t have a stacked bench. Players will run out of juice by the end of the stretch. Rather have the points in hand.

[Deeg67]

21 minutes ago, Rsswmu said:

Winning 4 games in 10 days is a big ask for any team. Like us they don’t have a stacked bench. Players will run out of juice by the end of the stretch. Rather have the points in hand.

No one said anything about trading our position with theirs - the proverbial "bird in the hand" to a T.  But my point is that if they beat Manure, "amazing" is way off the table.  They may not be as deep as Man City or Chelsea but their tired stars are still better than the teams they're playing.

[Rsswmu]

51 minutes ago, Deeg67 said:

No one said anything about trading our position with theirs - the proverbial "bird in the hand" to a T.  But my point is that if they beat Manure, "amazing" is way off the table.  They may not be as deep as Man City or Chelsea but their tired stars are still better than the teams they're playing.

Yes but it’s still a gauntlet of games. 4 games in 10 days is a slog and I’d imagine burnley or palace will at least get a draw in one of those games. Liverpool will be running on fumes at the end. 
 

Palace in the last game in Roy’s retirement game will make it tougher.

Edited 13 May 2021 by Rsswmu

[Deeg67]

23 minutes ago, Rsswmu said:

Yes but it’s still a gauntlet of games. 4 games in 10 days is a slog and I’d imagine burnley or palace will at least get a draw in one of those games. Liverpool will be running on fumes at the end. 
 

Palace in the last game in Roy’s retirement game will make it tougher.

Owl-stretching time...

[mohammedsaqib]

Am I right in saying if Utd win tonight, we only need a point out the last 2 games? 
 

 

[Deeg67]

8 hours ago, mohammedsaqib said:

Am I right in saying if Utd win tonight, we only need a point out the last 2 games? 
 

 

Technically no, because if we got a point and West Ham won their last three games, it would come down to GD as we'd both be on 67 points.  But we're far enough ahead that unless West Ham had a Sourthampton in there somewhere they'd never catch us on differential.

Edited 13 May 2021 by Deeg67

[foxfanazer]

Wow just scanning through Rawk (Liverpool forum) and I'm actually staggered by the victim mentality on there! And it's not just a few crazy posters it's 90% of them. Blaming everyone else for their dismal title defence including VAR... Oh the irony. 

 

Also seen a few on there stating that top 4 is firmly in their own hands...... Does somebody wanna tell them its really not

 

https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=346098.5400

Edited 13 May 2021 by foxfanazer

[shailen]

5 hours ago, Deeg67 said:

The problem is that Liverpool doesn't have to do anything remotely amazing, they just need to TCOB against weak opposition.  That's why it would be huge for them to drop points against United.  A draw would be a huge win for us.

 

Chelski could certainly drop points at Villa, not impossible.  We're ahead of them, so a draw in our league game is still a good result for us.

I think we'd be very unlucky to be the team that misses out now from the position we're in. Assuming we lose our next two games, Liverpool would need to win at least three of their next four or West Ham would need to win all their remaining games for us to drop out. 

 

A draw or better against Chelsea or Spurs and that takes West Ham realistically out the equation unless they win massively in their remaining games. Liverpool would need 3 wins and a draw which is a big ask even for them. If they lose tonight, we need 1 point from the remaining two games and it's done. 

[Guest ttfn]

24 minutes ago, foxfanazer said:

Wow just scanning through Rawk (Liverpool forum) and I'm actually staggered by the victim mentality on there! And it's not just a few crazy posters it's 90% of them. Blaming everyone else for their dismal title defence including VAR... Oh the irony. 

 

Also seen a few on there stating that top 4 is firmly in their own hands...... Does somebody wanna tell them its really not

 

https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=346098.5400

It is in their hands though...

[HighPeakFox]

3 minutes ago, ttfn said:

It is in their hands though...

I'm confused, I thought it was in our hands... 

[HighPeakFox]

1 hour ago, mohammedsaqib said:

Am I right in saying if Utd win tonight, we only need a point out the last 2 games? 

Pretty much. 

[foxfanazer]

7 minutes ago, ttfn said:

It is in their hands though...

I didn't factor in the fact that we play Chelsea so can't both pick up maximum points. 

[HighPeakFox]

1 minute ago, foxfanazer said:

I didn't factor in the fact that we play Chelsea so can't both pick up maximum points. 

Ah, you're right. 

[foxfanazer]

1 minute ago, HighPeakFox said:

Ah, you're right. 

Still a tall order regardless 

[HighPeakFox]

Just now, foxfanazer said:

Still a tall order regardless 

Oh absolutely, yes. 

[1972 Fox]

2 hours ago, mohammedsaqib said:

Am I right in saying if Utd win tonight, we only need a point out the last 2 games? 
 

 

Probably but not mathematically. West Ham and Everton could both still reach 67 points but overhauling the goal difference would be unlikely, particularly Everton.

[harpendenfox]

9 hours ago, weller54 said:

Spuds match!.. and don't call me Shirley.

What’s your vector victor?

[KrefelderFox666]

1 hour ago, HighPeakFox said:

I'm confused, I thought it was in our hands... 

Us, Liverpool and Chelsea can all make Top 4 based on their own results (however, it can only be one of us or Chelsea that does it on own merit as we play each other). West Ham, Everton and Spurs need results from others to go in their favour. Quite an interesting scenario.

 

However, by the time we get round to playing Chelsea, all that could have changed again. Before we play again, Everton will play twice, Liverpool will play twice, West Ham will play once and Spurs will play once.

[foxinsocks]

1 minute ago, KrefelderFox666 said:

Us, Liverpool and Chelsea can all make Top 4 based on their own results (however, it can only be one of us or Chelsea that does it on own merit as we play each other). West Ham, Everton and Spurs need results from others to go in their favour. Quite an interesting scenario.

 

However, by the time we get round to playing Chelsea, all that could have changed again. Before we play again, Everton will play twice, Liverpool will play twice, West Ham will play once and Spurs will play once.

If we can finish ahead of Chelsea then even if liverpool crash the top 4 ahead if us we will be 4th and chelsea drop out

[fuchsntf]

10 hours ago, tom27111 said:

G'day mate 

 

My mistake! I was only 3 at the time!

No excuses, you could of asked....ALEXA...or SIRI....

[KrefelderFox666]

8 minutes ago, foxinsocks said:

If we can finish ahead of Chelsea then even if liverpool crash the top 4 ahead if us we will be 4th and chelsea drop out

Yes exactly. Yesterday helped in the fact that even a draw on Tuesday would mean that Chelsea would be forced to win their last game against Villa (with a CL final looming) and hope we slip up against Spurs.

 

However, if we lose to Chelsea, then we would need them to slip up and beat Spurs.

 

The best chance is to keep Liverpool and West Ham at bay but we know have an opportunity to keep Chelsea behind us too. If we win on Tuesday, then job done and it doesn't matter if Liverpool overtake us.

 

Lots of possibilities. Relegation and Title is sorted, but the race for Europe is wide open.

[foxinsocks]

Just now, KrefelderFox666 said:

Yes exactly. Yesterday helped in the fact that even a draw on Tuesday would mean that Chelsea would be forced to win their last game against Villa (with a CL final looming) and hope we slip up against Spurs.

 

However, if we lose to Chelsea, then we would need them to slip up and beat Spurs.

 

The best chance is to keep Liverpool and West Ham at bay but we know have an opportunity to keep Chelsea behind us too. If we win on Tuesday, then job done and it doesn't matter if Liverpool overtake us.

 

Lots of possibilities. Relegation and Title is sorted, but the race for Europe is wide open.

Simply if man u don't win then time need to beat chelsea next tuesday

[Gerard]

1 hour ago, foxfanazer said:

Wow just scanning through Rawk (Liverpool forum) and I'm actually staggered by the victim mentality on there! And it's not just a few crazy posters it's 90% of them. Blaming everyone else for their dismal title defence including VAR... Oh the irony. 

 

Also seen a few on there stating that top 4 is firmly in their own hands...... Does somebody wanna tell them its really not

 

https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=346098.5400

 

Liverpool win their last four they get top four.

 

The only way that doesn't happen is:

 

Chelsea beat Leicester

Leicester beat Tottenham by a minimum of two goals and that's only if we got beat of Chelsea by a goal and Liverpool win all their games by a solitary goal. For every result in those fives games that more than a goal difference means we would have to beat Tottenham by another goal so it could be 3,4,5 goals we have to win by.

[foxfanazer]

2 minutes ago, Gerard said:

 

Liverpool win their last four they get top four.

 

The only way that doesn't happen is:

 

Chelsea beat Leicester

Leicester beat Tottenham by a minimum of two goals and that's only if we got beat of Chelsea by a goal and Liverpool win all their games by a solitary goal. For every result in those fives games that more than a goal difference means we would have to beat Tottenham by another goal so it could be 3,4,5 goals we have to win by.

Yeah realised my mistake. I fancy us to beat Spurs last game regardless 

[UniFox21]

Still in our hands, but we're only a step closer than we were. A United win would really help us out