2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[Deeg67]

1 hour ago, Gerard said:

 

I said before the Newcastle match we just need one good week when we win and our opponents don't.

 

if Manchester United can beat Liverpool tomorrow that will be enough barring a perfect set of results for our opponents until the rest of the season with one of them winning all thie games and us losing all of ours.

Not really.  Liverpool have what really should be three sitters for them after Man United, so probably best to assume they win those games and exceed us in GD.  We'd still need one more point.

[Gerard]

2 minutes ago, Deeg67 said:

Not really.  Liverpool have what really should be three sitters for them after Man United, so probably best to assume they win those games and exceed us in GD.  We'd still need one more point.

 

What have I said that you disagree with?

 

If Liverpool lose tomorrow I stated "that will be enough barring a perfect set of results for our opponents". ie they win all their games and we lose all ours.

[Ric Flair]

2 hours ago, Deeg67 said:

I felt 68 all along, and I still think 68.  Two draws, one win.  Gonna be tough to get anything off Chelsea - they're in a stunning run of form, still have nothing assured, and really don't need to rest anybody to prioritize the CL match.  If they rest anybody it won't be in the league game, it'll be the FA Cup.  

 

That leaves Tottenham.  Not that good, and absent needing to beat them, we might beat them.  But all the pressure on us will be huge if we do need a win.  Hopefully they won't be playing for anything at that point.

Chelsea's home form under Tuchel isn't that impressive and we all know how good we are away from home. It will be tough but I think we will be a problem for them in at least 1 of these 2 games against them.

[Xen]

39 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

Chelsea's home form under Tuchel isn't that impressive and we all know how good we are away from home. It will be tough but I think we will be a problem for them in at least 1 of these 2 games against them.

First game with fans back in the stadiums though, so the typical home/away form might not necessarily apply...

[UniFox21]

3 hours ago, mozartfox said:

Bellend Sinclair talking shite on TalkShite at the moment. Basically if you have a strong squad, it is fine to rotate and OGS will be responsible if Liverpool and West Ham fail to accumulate enough points over 38 games to finish top 4.  Interesting.

Laughed out loud when he said that. Man City making 8 changes regularly is fine but anyone else dare change is a crime.

 

People Jump to assume he's being antagonistic on purpose, but I genuinely dont think he has the brain capacity to fake an opinion like that 

[Ric Flair]

1 minute ago, Xen said:

First game with fans back in the stadiums though, so the typical home/away form might not necessarily apply...

Oh yeah, forgot about that

[STUHILL]

1 minute ago, UniFox21 said:

Laughed out loud when he said that. Man City making 8 changes regularly is fine but anyone else dare change is a crime.

 

People Jump to assume he's being antagonistic on purpose, but I genuinely dont think he has the brain capacity to fake an opinion like that 

Imagine if he was still playing and he was asked to play 4 games in 8 days. Don't think he would be spouting this rubbish if so. 

[davieG]

It was still 1-1 when they brought Rashford and Cavani on.

 

That's when we scored though 

[Stuntman_Mike]

3 hours ago, mozartfox said:

Bellend Sinclair talking shite on TalkShite at the moment. Basically if you have a strong squad, it is fine to rotate and OGS will be responsible if Liverpool and West Ham fail to accumulate enough points over 38 games to finish top 4.  Interesting.

He's normally quite sound but he's being completely bias towards West Ham at the moment. 

He wouldn't say the same about Man City rotating their team, just because they have £60 million pound players sat on the bench.

[Bats8711]

OK - Professor Bats needs to step in here I think. Those saying we want Chelsea to win today are overthinking it - it would be a horrible result for us, just like them beating Man City was.

 

- If Chelsea drop any points today (loss or draw), then a win against them next week guarantees CL.  It's done.  No needing to get anything against Tottenham.  No worrying about Liverpool or West Ham.

- If Chelsea lose today, even a draw against them means they would need to win their final game against AV to be able overtake us.

- If Chelsea draw today, against us, and against Villa, we'd only need a draw against Spurs to finish above them.

 

Simply put, it gives us way more outs.  Because we could finish above them just as easily as above Liverpool.  In the scenarios above, 3 1 & 2 points respectively are good enough for CL.  Chelsea are not out of sight, they are not a shoe in for top 4, they are not guaranteed to finish above us. 

 

Typing this out is just reminding me what a gutting result them winning against Man City was.  Imagine if they were on 61 points right now?  We'd be one result away from CL (either by us or a chaser dropping points), as it stands we're two results away.  The thought that Aguero pen (not to mention MC making 9 changes and the non-call on Sterling at the end) may cost us CL is... annoying

 

The entire basis of saying a Chelsea win is better is that if Liverpool lose to Man Utd then we only need to draw them to clinch.  But - if Liverpool lose to Man Utd we're a result away anyway.  What we need is a hedge if Liverpool beat Man Utd.  Because if that happens, well, I'll be worried.  If we knew now that Liverpool lost that game then I guess you can make that argument.  But we don't know.  Those cheering for a Chelsea win will feel pretty silly if it happens then Liverpool win tomorrow. Because we're back to needing 4 points from our last 2. 

 

edit: actually even if Liverpool lost to Man Utd we'd still want Chelsea to lose today.  It doesn't really matter.  Because then we have the upper hand on 2 teams for 2 spots instead of just 1 team for 1 spot.

Edited 12 May 2021 by Bats8711

[Pliskin]

Chelsea will lose to Arsenal today. They will probably rotate the squad and it’s a scalp for Arteta to save his job.

[Deeg67]

I’m confused.  Why would any Leicester fan be rooting for Chelsea tonight?  Is it some kind of 5-D chess thinking that it weakens them in the cup final?

[Bats8711]

2 minutes ago, Deeg67 said:

I’m confused.  Why would any Leicester fan be rooting for Chelsea tonight?  Is it some kind of 5-D chess thinking that it weakens them in the cup final?

From what I've read, the thought process is if they win today, and Liverpool lose tomorrow, they're guaranteed CL then will take it easy against us in the league game, allowing us to waltz to a 0-0 draw and clinch CL.

[KrefelderFox666]

16 minutes ago, Bats8711 said:

OK - Professor Bats needs to step in here I think. Those saying we want Chelsea to win today are overthinking it - it would be a horrible result for us, just like them beating Man City was.

 

- If Chelsea drop any points today (loss or draw), then a win against them next week guarantees CL.  It's done.  No needing to get anything against Tottenham.  No worrying about Liverpool or West Ham.

- If Chelsea lose today, even a draw against them means they would need to win their final game against AV to be able overtake us.

- If Chelsea draw today, against us, and against Villa, we'd only need a draw against Spurs to finish above them.

 

Simply put, it gives us way more outs.  Because we could finish above them just as easily as above Liverpool.  In the scenarios above, 3 1 & 2 points respectively are good enough for CL.  Chelsea are not out of sight, they are not a shoe in for top 4, they are not guaranteed to finish above us. 

 

Typing this out is just reminding me what a gutting result them winning against Man City was.  Imagine if they were on 61 points right now?  We'd be one result away from CL (either by us or a chaser dropping points), as it stands we're two results away.  The thought that Aguero pen (not to mention MC making 9 changes and the non-call on Sterling at the end) may cost us CL is... annoying

 

The entire basis of saying a Chelsea win is better is that if Liverpool lose to Man Utd then we only need to draw them to clinch.  But - if Liverpool lose to Man Utd we're a result away anyway.  What we need is a hedge if Liverpool beat Man Utd.  Because if that happens, well, I'll be worried.  If we knew now that Liverpool lost that game then I guess you can make that argument.  But we don't know.  Those cheering for a Chelsea win will feel pretty silly if it happens then Liverpool win tomorrow. Because we're back to needing 4 points from our last 2. 

 

edit: actually even if Liverpool lost to Man Utd we'd still want Chelsea to lose today.  It doesn't really matter.  Because then we have the upper hand on 2 teams for 2 spots instead of just 1 team for 1 spot.

But we want Liverpool to win tomorrow so we can still catch Man U and finish 2nd......

[Bats8711]

1 minute ago, KrefelderFox666 said:

But we want Liverpool to win tomorrow so we can still catch Man U and finish 2nd......

 

[Deeg67]

8 minutes ago, Bats8711 said:

From what I've read, the thought process is if they win today, and Liverpool lose tomorrow, they're guaranteed CL then will take it easy against us in the league game, allowing us to waltz to a 0-0 draw and clinch CL.

Oy. 

[Bats8711]

3 minutes ago, Deeg67 said:

Oy. 

バカじゃない

[FoxinNotts]

17 minutes ago, Bats8711 said:

From what I've read, the thought process is if they win today, and Liverpool lose tomorrow, they're guaranteed CL then will take it easy against us in the league game, allowing us to waltz to a 0-0 draw and clinch CL.

This. I really don’t want to go into our final game of the season needing to produce anything! Heart can’t take it

Edited 12 May 2021 by FoxinNotts

[foxinsocks]

28 minutes ago, Deeg67 said:

I’m confused.  Why would any Leicester fan be rooting for Chelsea tonight?  Is it some kind of 5-D chess thinking that it weakens them in the cup final?

I am rooting for arse tonight. If chelsea finish behind us but someone overtakes us then we will be 4th

Tomorrow i am rooting for man utd as liverpool can catch us

Edited 12 May 2021 by foxinsocks

[Nalis]

We were always almost definitely going to need something from the last game v Spurs anyway werent we? This is fine though. Spurs this season aren't exactly an in form Man U on the last day of last season so its not the same scenario. Confident we'll get at least a point which should be enough regardless of what happens against Chelsea.

 

 

Edited 12 May 2021 by Nalis

[OhYesNdidi]

6 minutes ago, Nalis said:

We were always almost definitely going to need something from the last game v Spurs anyway werent we? This is fine though. Spurs this season aren't exactly an in form Man U on the last day of last season so its not the same scenario. Confident we'll get at least a point which should be enough regardless of what happens against Chelsea.

 

 

Not if we’d had beaten either Southampton or Newcastle...

[FoxOnWheels]

Man U beating Liverpool would be gigantic for us 

[Gerard]

5 minutes ago, Nalis said:

We were always almost definitely going to need something from the last game v Spurs anyway werent we? This is fine though. Spurs this season aren't exactly an in form Man U on the last day of last season so its not the same scenario. Confident we'll get at least a point which should be enough regardless of what happens against Chelsea.

 

 

 

It's probably a 50% chance that it's already decided by the last day, I hope so.

 

We really could do with Liverpool losing tomorrow as it means that the three teams that can catch us outside the top four need a Hail Mary that they win all their games and we lose both ours.

 

I'd begrudgingly accept a draw tomorrow although we would potentially need two points which isn't ideal for us in this position. Liverpool win tomorrow and it's game on I'm afraid.

[Stevosevic]

Yep. Arsenal win please.

[norwichfox]

Has anyone calculated what we and our challengers need to do to secure a top four place?