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Les-TA-Jon

2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

By Les-TA-Jon, in Leicester City Forum

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Ric Flair

Ric Flair

Posted
Posted

It's an interesting dilemma, I think many want Chelsea to win tonight if it then transpires that Man Utd win tomorrow because then a draw next week pretty much secures CL for us both. However I'm more than happy for Chelsea to fail to win tonight as has been discussed, it gives us another team to be able to secure CL instead of/before.

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cruzFOX

cruzFOX

Posted
Posted

I predict an arsenal masterclass today!

this season they either turn up or they don’t but with arteta under pressure again and certainly arsenal players back in form again they will suprise and give Chelski one hell of a game. Something they do not want considering they want to be all fit and rested for the weekend. Pressure is on them against their London rivals. The germans might start firing blanks again as we’ve seen before. I will be watching.

 

as for Thursday’s game I prefer a Man U win for the reason already stated by some of you but I reckon it will be a tightly contested 1-1 or 0-0 draw.

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KingsX

KingsX

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Hard to believe I was ready to promise my firstborn for a United defeat yesterday … and I’m ready to promise my second for a United victory tomorrow.

 

Funny old game and all that.

 

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v6rat

v6rat

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, norwichfox said:

Has anyone calculated what we and our challengers need to do to secure a top four place?

Chelsea max 73 points

West Ham max 67 points

Liverpool max 69 points.

Everton max 67 points

 

Leicester need 4 more (70 points max and 4th place) to guarantee CL If the teams above drop points, then we need less

Edited by v6rat
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Lichfieldfox.

Lichfieldfox.

Posted
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50 minutes ago, Spudulike said:

You can almost be sure that one of either West Ham, Merseyside Redsox or Everton will get maximum points. Its going to be a very nervy final match and we're not very good at home. 

We just need to focus on ourselves as in our hands. We can end up with 66 (2L), 67 (1D, 1L), 68 (2D), 69 (1W, 1L), 70 (1W, 1D) oŕ 72 (2W). More chance of Chelsea slipping up. Spurs will be wearing flip flops for final game.

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psychonaut

psychonaut

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Spudulike said:

You can almost be sure that one of either West Ham, Merseyside Redsox or Everton will get maximum points. Its going to be a very nervy final match and we're not very good at home. 

If West Ham or Everton get max points, as long as we draw one game out of our final two it wont matter as they've both got dogsh1t goal difference.

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Bats8711

Bats8711

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Posted
2 hours ago, v6rat said:

Chelsea max 73 points

West Ham max 67 points

Liverpool max 69 points.

Everton max 67 points

 

Leicester need 4 more to guarantee CL If the teams above drop points, then we need less

Yep - you guys don't seem to utilize it in the UK but a good way to think about it is the Magic Number, which would be the cumulative amount of points we need to gain OR chasers need to drop to clinch.  There would be a M# for each team that can catch us.

 

- Liverpool is 4 points

- West Ham is technically 2 points, but effectively 1 due to GD (they'd have to make up an additional 7 goals beyond what the results needed for them to catch us dictate - so they'd need their wins and our defeats to each be by an average of over 2 goals.  Not impossible but even I'd say that's pretty unlikely)

- Everton same thing - technically 2, but effectively 1 due to even worse GD

- Chelsea is more complicated because we play them ("6 pointer"). But based on what I can tell it's 8.  Seems a lot, but if we beat them that's 6 right there (we gain +3, they drop -3)

 

We need to finish ahead of three of these teams.  WH + EVE are first to target.  We're one result away from clinching above them both.  People are taking it for granted that Liverpool is the 3rd team. The thing is, if Chelsea lose or draw today, our M# with them goes down to 5-6.  Normally that would be 2 results, but because we play them it could be one.  They become just as likely to finish below us as Liverpool does.  More outs = better.  Also I'm not greedy but the thought of Chelsea losing CL final, losing FA cup final + finishing 5th is quite delicious.

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Duncan_K

Duncan_K

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Bats8711 said:

Also I'm not greedy but the thought of Chelsea losing CL final, losing FA cup final + finishing 5th is quite delicious.

It is, but i've already made the deal with the devil that if they give us the FA cup and Champions League place then they are allowed to win the CL final. 

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Foxaholic ME

Foxaholic ME

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Spudulike said:

You can almost be sure that one of either West Ham, Merseyside Redsox or Everton will get maximum points. Its going to be a very nervy final match and we're not very good at home. 

Its amazing that our home record is ignored by Rogers  anything like our away record and we would be challenging for the title.There must be at least half the league who we have done worse at home against than away

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Motty

Motty

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, Foxaholic ME said:

Its amazing that our home record is ignored by Rogers  anything like our away record and we would be challenging for the title.There must be at least half the league who we have done worse at home against than away

2 4 38 17 +21 38
2 West Ham Utd 18 9 4 5 29 22 +7 31
3 Tottenham 17 9 3 5 32 18 +14 30
4 Chelsea 17 8 6 3 29 16 +13 30
5 Manchester Utd 17 9 3 5 35 23 +12 30
6 Liverpool 18 9 3 6 27 20 +7 30
7 Leicester City 18 9 1 8 32 26 +6 28
8 Leeds Utd 18 7 5 6 25 20 +5 26
9 Arsenal 18 7 4 7 22 21 +1 25
10 Wolverhampton 18 7 4 7 20 23 -3 25
11 Southampton 17 7 3 7 25 22 +3 24
12 Aston Villa 17 6 3 8 27 26 +1 21
13 Newcastle Utd 17 5 5 7 22 29 -7 20
14 Crystal Palace 17 5 5 7 16 27 -11 20
15 Everton 17 5 4 8 23 27 -4 19
16 Burnley 17 4 6 7 14 20 -6 18
17 Brighton 17 3 8 6 18 19 -1 17
18 West Brom 17 3 6 8 13 34 -21 15
19 Sheffield Utd 18 4 1 13 11 27 -16 13
20 Fulham 18 2 4 12 9 26 -17 10
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