2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

[Ricey]

11 minutes ago, Gerard said:

If it comes down to GD we almost certainly finish 5th.

We'd need to only lose to Chelsea by one, Liverpool only beat Burnley and Palace by one and then hope we beat we beat Spurs by three.

 

Makes those goals conceded against Newcastle and even Tielemans chance towards the end of the Man Utd game all the more agonising.

[OhYesNdidi]

1 minute ago, peach0000 said:

True. Just pointing out where things may have been lost. We will lose games over the course of a season but if we don’t make top 4 on goal difference it’ll be the games we really didnt turn up and got hammered that’ll make the difference. Losing and drawing games is to be expected. Losing heavily shouldn’t happen (thankfully it doesn’t too often). Anyway we’ll do Chelsea tomorrow and all of this talk will be pointless anyway!

It looked like we threw it away vs west ham so to get it back in our hands with other teams messing up was a huge relief, especially with Southampton & Newcastle back to back to bascially secure top 4. But hopefully there is another twist. 

[me_plus_one]

If we finish 4th and Chelsea finish 5th and win this year's CL does that mean we don't qualify?

[KFS]

Just now, me_plus_one said:

If we finish 4th and Chelsea finish 5th and win this year's CL does that mean we don't qualify?

For the last time 

 

NO

 

In this scenario there would be five English teams in the CL.

[nnfox]

5 minutes ago, Ricey said:

We'd need to only lose to Chelsea by one, Liverpool only beat Burnley and Palace by one and then hope we beat we beat Spurs by three.

 

Makes those goals conceded against Newcastle and even Tielemans chance towards the end of the Man Utd game all the more agonising.

Highly unlikely that it would happen like that, but if it did, then Iheanachos two late goals at West Ham and the two we scored towards the end of the Newcastle game would be more important than anyone imagined at the time.

[Gravel]

3 minutes ago, me_plus_one said:

If we finish 4th and Chelsea finish 5th and win this year's CL does that mean we don't qualify?

Chelsea should rollover in the league, accept 5th and then win the Champions League.

 

Everybody happy. Except Pep maybe 🤔

[NasPb]

3 minutes ago, LaCiudad said:

Key to what? Just having more income?

 

Have you not seen Saturday?

 

I just don't get this attitude I guess.

It gives us more financial flexibility especially after covid. We'll surely finance transfers through it 

[STUHILL]

7 minutes ago, me_plus_one said:

If we finish 4th and Chelsea finish 5th and win this year's CL does that mean we don't qualify?

Burnley would qualify in that case

[Guest Chocolate Teapot]

2 minutes ago, NasPb said:

It gives us more financial flexibility especially after covid. We'll surely finance transfers through it 

For one season. Might help with short term cash flow, might bring in more commercial revenue but Saturday was as big for us as that. We won't suddenly buy a player for 50m and spend 200k on wages.

[oxtonfox]

One things for sure, the top 4 shootout is tighter than a nun’s chuff and a duck’s arse. 
I think it may take VAR to decide it. 

 

Hopefully a Kasper header in the 99th minute at home to Spurs, Allison style, will decide it in our favour on goals scored or something like that.

[SixtiesFox]

Let's keep it in our own hands and forget about goal difference. Although a win against Chelsea would be a fairy tale ending to an extraordinary season and brilliant for our blood pressure, a draw with Chelsea would leave us needing to win in our final game against Spurs. With our fans roaring us on and creating a cup tie atmosphere it would be entirely doable. A fitting way to clinch a fully deserved top 4 finish. And there's always agent Wood as a back up. Can't see that Liverpool defence looking too clever against an aerial bombardment. 

[Grebfromgrebland]

20 minutes ago, LaCiudad said:

Key to what? Just having more income?

 

Have you not seen Saturday?

 

I just don't get this attitude I guess.

The world doesn't end now we've won the FA cup. The next step up is to be in the champions league we're ready for this.

[Guest bennytwohats]

18 minutes ago, KFS said:

For the last time 

 

NO

 

In this scenario there would be five English teams in the CL.

I’m not sure this is right. It won’t be the last time someone needs to explain it 

[STUHILL]

Just to be clear. Not one poster is suggesting that we should sack the UCL off and just be content with the FA Cup win. Everyone wants us to win tomorrow and be in the Champions league. It would be a monumental achievement for this club. 

 

We are just playing that "what if" game. What if we finish 5th. How would you view that and how would that impact the club moving forward etc. I think it's also a natural coping mechanism to prepare ourselves if we don't quite make it, and we can have a list of positives ready to help us cope with that 

 

 

 

[OhYesNdidi]

17 minutes ago, STUHILL said:

Burnley would qualify in that case

If we finished 19th but Chelsea win the champions league, do we still qualify?

[STUHILL]

1 minute ago, OhYesNdidi said:

If we finished 19th but Chelsea win the champions league, do we still qualify?

No, Wigan would then qualify instead of Man City 

[Scotch]

49 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

For it to come down to goal difference, Liverpool would win 2 more games, and us only 1. Or we draw with Chelsea, lose against Spurs and Chelsea beat Villa. In both cases they'd almost certainly have better GD than us. 

I don't think that you quoted the correct person here, buddy...

[Les-TA-Jon]

2 minutes ago, Foxy_Bear said:

I don't think that you quoted the correct person here, buddy...

I certainly did not haha

[STUHILL]

'...If Chelsea do win 1-0 on Tuesday night but then the Foxes go on to beat Tottenham 3-0 on Sunday, while the Reds win 3-2 at Burnley and 2-1 against Crystal Palace, then both Leicester and Liverpool would have identical points and scoring records – not only for goal difference but for scored and against.

So what happen in that situation?

 

Well it is taken to head-to-head record and there is very little to separate the two teams there either.

 

November’s clash at Anfield ended 3-0 to the home side while Leicester secured revenge in February, with a 3-1 win.

But Mo Salah’s goal that night would prove crucial in such circumstances, as it would hand Liverpool the advantage and secure Champions League football for Klopp’s men.'

 

Imagine if this transpired!!! 

 

[Les-TA-Jon]

14 minutes ago, STUHILL said:

'...If Chelsea do win 1-0 on Tuesday night but then the Foxes go on to beat Tottenham 3-0 on Sunday, while the Reds win 3-2 at Burnley and 2-1 against Crystal Palace, then both Leicester and Liverpool would have identical points and scoring records – not only for goal difference but for scored and against.

So what happen in that situation?

 

Well it is taken to head-to-head record and there is very little to separate the two teams there either.

 

November’s clash at Anfield ended 3-0 to the home side while Leicester secured revenge in February, with a 3-1 win.

But Mo Salah’s goal that night would prove crucial in such circumstances, as it would hand Liverpool the advantage and secure Champions League football for Klopp’s men.'

 

Imagine if this transpired!!! 

 

That would be...painful

[LaCiudad]

36 minutes ago, Grebfromgrebland said:

The world doesn't end now we've won the FA cup. The next step up is to be in the champions league we're ready for this.

As I said earlier...

 

That's not what people are saying though.

 

People are saying that we've won the FA Cup, stop writing it off as if CL was the only thing that mattered. Enjoy the moment and go 100% for CL too. If we don't get it, still a great season - second most successful in the club's history!

[An Away Move]

I think we’ll beat them tomorrow night.  

Edited 17 May 2021 by SydenhamFox

[urban fox]

Yes players will be attracted to sides that are playing CL, however we are not going to attract those players over our competitors as we simply cannot afford the sort of wages they would be offering.

 

if on the other hand a player sees what it means to be part of a real club, where, as Kasper so eloquently put it, everyone is valued for their contribution, including the backroom staff and we get that, where loyalty is prized and rewarded (No furlough here, we even paid our casual match day staff their full wages throughout, we look after our injured players etc), there is a clear ambition and the best training facilities anywhere, somewhere where they can develop their potential and become part of something special, then they are the players we want, not the mercenaries.

we worry about our talent getting tapped up when on international duty etc but i can also see the likes of Youri, Nacho, Kasper etc telling their international team mates what its like to work for such a great club.

If you were a player looking for a new club, just watching the celebrations, and what it meant to everyone on Saturday, would make you want to be part of something like that. If it didn't then they are not the players for us.

[Number 6]

Also it's been a matter of hours, people are still buzzing about the cup. We were all shouting expletives when Allison scored yesterday and we'll all be watching with clenched cheeks tomorrow...but nice to have some perspective and allow ourselves to enjoy the moment.

[urban fox]

2 minutes ago, Number 6 said:

Also it's been a matter of hours, people are still buzzing about the cup. We were all shouting expletives when Allison scored yesterday and we'll all be watching with clenched cheeks tomorrow...but nice to have some perspective and allow ourselves to enjoy the moment.

Spot on. I really do hope we make it this time. if its not to be, then que sera, but at least we are still in a position to be nervous about it with two games to go, rather than languishing in 9th place with nothing to play for like Arsenal.