leicsmac Posted 30 May 2021 Posted 30 May 2021 1 minute ago, ozleicester said: Out of interest, havent polls been found to be completely useless over the past 5 years... Brexit wrong Trump wrong Aust Gvt Wrong People have figured out what pollsters want and answer to influence polls rather than tell the truth I wouldn't be sure about this without more precise data, but they've still gotten more right than wrong within error margins even with the seeming shift to cults of personality and (as you say) people trying to game them. 1
UpTheLeagueFox Posted 30 May 2021 Posted 30 May 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, ozleicester said: Out of interest, havent polls been found to be completely useless over the past 5 years... Brexit wrong Trump wrong Aust Gvt Wrong People have figured out what pollsters want and answer to influence polls rather than tell the truth Remain was about 2-3% ahead in the poll of polls in the build up to the Brexit vote so not that far out. However, in the 10 polls just before the 2019 GE, the Conservative leads were: 5% / 9% (three times) / 10% (twice) / 11% (twice) / 12% (twice) The winning margin was about 11.5 % so the pollsters were pretty bang on in the build up. FWIW, Labour were ahead for most of March-June 2019 - and having a 10pt lead twice - (with Brexit party and Lib Dems having a couple of brief leads, around the time of the Euro elections) but from mid July onwards, Labour had a single poll lead (1%) in the five months before the actual GE. That coincided with Boris taking over the Conservatives. The Tories had some even bigger leads (not just the "Tory-owned" YouGov) ... 19% (Opinium), 18% (Kantar), 17% (Ipsos Mori), 16% (Opinium) and a few others at 12-15%. As I said, the ones just before the GE were very close to correct. ~~~~~ EDIT: Latest poll, Labour eating into the Tory lead again. They cut it by seven points yesterday, four points today. Edited 30 May 2021 by UpTheLeagueFox
LiberalFox Posted 31 May 2021 Posted 31 May 2021 Tbf polls are rarely wrong, it's just that when results are close and binary the outcome is often within the margin of accuracy. 1
HybridFox Posted 1 June 2021 Posted 1 June 2021 Currently watching Piers Morgan Life Stories with Keir Starmer. Whatever you think of the man, it's pretty heartbreaking to hear about his mother. No one should have to see a loved one go through that.
Popular Post LVFox Posted 1 June 2021 Popular Post Posted 1 June 2021 35 minutes ago, TK95 said: Currently watching Piers Morgan Life Stories with Keir Starmer. Whatever you think of the man, it's pretty heartbreaking to hear about his mother. No one should have to see a loved one go through that. As much criticism as him sitting down with Morgan will get, it was a good idea. You realise the man actually has a life of decency behind him, which cannot be aimed at his opponent. He really needs to be more natural to the electorate though, he’s far more “normal” than he’s willing to let on. To his detriment in my eyes 5
UpTheLeagueFox Posted 1 June 2021 Posted 1 June 2021 1 hour ago, TK95 said: Currently watching Piers Morgan Life Stories with Keir Starmer. Whatever you think of the man, it's pretty heartbreaking to hear about his mother. No one should have to see a loved one go through that. 55 minutes ago, LVocey said: As much criticism as him sitting down with Morgan will get, it was a good idea. You realise the man actually has a life of decency behind him, which cannot be aimed at his opponent. He really needs to be more natural to the electorate though, he’s far more “normal” than he’s willing to let on. To his detriment in my eyes Fair play to him for laying his soul bare on telly like that, something Boris would never do. Talking about his parents was moving. Made a very salient point about the Labour party that it has to "stop looking in on itself and looks out to the voters." Overall a fascinating watch. PS. Quite a funny line in it. Starmer: "My mum and dad loved donkeys and they rescued donkeys." Morgan: "Is that what made you become leader of the Labour party?" 4
Buce Posted 9 June 2021 Author Posted 9 June 2021 Brexit going well then: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jun/09/eu-uk-talks-to-resolve-northern-ireland-crisis-end-without-agreement https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/09/australian-government-prepared-to-walk-away-from-uk-free-trade-deal-over-agricultural-access
StanSP Posted 9 June 2021 Posted 9 June 2021 Is he taking the piss? 'fairer and greener' *takes a plane from London to Cornwall*
bovril Posted 9 June 2021 Posted 9 June 2021 1 hour ago, Buce said: Brexit going well then: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jun/09/eu-uk-talks-to-resolve-northern-ireland-crisis-end-without-agreement https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/09/australian-government-prepared-to-walk-away-from-uk-free-trade-deal-over-agricultural-access Try not to distract people from the news of a student common room taking down a photo of the Queen. 1
bovril Posted 9 June 2021 Posted 9 June 2021 I am trying to decide whether the UK Gov either didn't know what they'd signed, didn't care, or knew and thought the ensuing row would work in their favour with the electorate. None of which look good. I imagine it's a combination of the first two which is a pretty fair reflection of the British public. 1 1
Popular Post Alf Bentley Posted 9 June 2021 Popular Post Posted 9 June 2021 2 minutes ago, bovril said: I am trying to decide whether the UK Gov either didn't know what they'd signed, didn't care, or knew and thought the ensuing row would work in their favour with the electorate. None of which look good. I imagine it's a combination of the first two which is a pretty fair reflection of the British public. I assume they absolutely did know what they'd signed, but didn't care and/or thought they'd be able to worm out of it or water it down once the deal was in place. The "border in the Irish Sea" was discussed at the time. The broad nature of it was clear from comments by all experts and even by one of Johnson's ministers, even if Johnson chose to lie and deny it. His priority was to hold onto power - and win a majority at a snap election on the grounds that he'd got Brexit done. The EU weren't going to agree a deal that involved an Irish land border. The UK parliament wasn't going to approve a deal with May's backstop arrangement. So, Johnson opted to shaft the Unionists and resurrected the "border in the sea" that the EU had offered to May and that she'd rejected - as his route to full and continued power. Very successful the cynical tactics proved, too. What does it matter if Loyalist anger is stirred up endangering peace and/or if the EU-UK relationship becomes fractious long-term.....when set against the great achievement of full power for Boris Johnson? I'm sure the ensuing rows with the EU will work as an added bonus, though, whipping up hostility against our neighbours as a useful distraction from other stuff....a bit similar to stories about the Queen's photo in the common room. 5
UpTheLeagueFox Posted 9 June 2021 Posted 9 June 2021 Not much movement on the polls in the last few weeks Since the local elections, the Govt leads have been in double figures for 15 of the past 22 polls, lowest 6% and highest 16% Latest one today.
Alf Bentley Posted 9 June 2021 Posted 9 June 2021 22 minutes ago, UpTheLeagueFox said: Not much movement on the polls in the last few weeks Since the local elections, the Govt leads have been in double figures for 15 of the past 22 polls, lowest 6% and highest 16% Latest one today. No "Piers bounce" for Starmer, then? Maybe there'll be a slight Con->Lab swing if the Govt has to postpone the end to lockdown? If so, that might make the difference between Labour losing or holding Batley & Spen at next month's byelection.....which in turn might determine whether Starmer faces a leadership challenge. In politics, small or unconnected developments can have a surprisingly big impact. A bit like football....imagine if Kasper hadn't chosen the Spurs match to make a very rare howler: 2-1 or 3-1 & CL qualification the likeliest outcome, I think. (I like my football v. politics analogies ) 1
UpTheLeagueFox Posted 9 June 2021 Posted 9 June 2021 1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said: No "Piers bounce" for Starmer, then? Maybe there'll be a slight Con->Lab swing if the Govt has to postpone the end to lockdown? If so, that might make the difference between Labour losing or holding Batley & Spen at next month's byelection.....which in turn might determine whether Starmer faces a leadership challenge. In politics, small or unconnected developments can have a surprisingly big impact. A bit like football....imagine if Kasper hadn't chosen the Spurs match to make a very rare howler: 2-1 or 3-1 & CL qualification the likeliest outcome, I think. (I like my football v. politics analogies ) I thought there might be some movement with Starmer's interview and the tightening of travel restrictions but there'll definitely be anger if June 21st gets pushed back. Batley & Spen I think will be a narrow Labour hold anyway, enough for KS to hang on. As for the other KS analogy, I agree mate. Kasper might have had a shocker in the cup final rather than vs Spurs so we didn't get the cup but managed top four. Fine margins as always. Lot of talk of Andy Burnham being a shout for Labour leader but he isn't an MP, he would have to wait for one of those roles to come up first presumably. 1
CosbehFox Posted 9 June 2021 Posted 9 June 2021 4 hours ago, StanSP said: Is he taking the piss? 'fairer and greener' *takes a plane from London to Cornwall* £70 million this is costing to host - fcuking mad
Leicester_Loyal Posted 9 June 2021 Posted 9 June 2021 4 hours ago, StanSP said: Is he taking the piss? 'fairer and greener' *takes a plane from London to Cornwall* Unbelievable. Do as I say, not do as I do. 4
leicsmac Posted 10 June 2021 Posted 10 June 2021 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-57414195 Interesgin insight on UK/US relations before the summit. NB. Agree with the sentiment above regarding Johnson using a plane rather than a more eco-friendly line of transport (though it's, again, a strawman to say that we need to abandon air travel to fight climate change), but I never had you down as an environmental advocate, @Leicester_Loyal
Leicester_Loyal Posted 10 June 2021 Posted 10 June 2021 7 hours ago, leicsmac said: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-57414195 Interesgin insight on UK/US relations before the summit. NB. Agree with the sentiment above regarding Johnson using a plane rather than a more eco-friendly line of transport (though it's, again, a strawman to say that we need to abandon air travel to fight climate change), but I never had you down as an environmental advocate, @Leicester_Loyal My hate of hypocrites means I occasionally have to be environmentally friendly 1
StanSP Posted 10 June 2021 Posted 10 June 2021 Hancock's turn to be grilled today after Cummings' appearance in front of the committee. Wonder what level of sliminess and smarminess he'll go to.
Popular Post Footballwipe Posted 10 June 2021 Popular Post Posted 10 June 2021 11 minutes ago, StanSP said: Hancock's turn to be grilled today after Cummings' appearance in front of the committee. Wonder what level of sliminess and smarminess he'll go to. Doesn't really matter though, does it? There's no accountability, no bounce back, no consequence. Ride the wave, survive the news cycle and move on to the next thing. Blind loyalty to the Johnson/Tory badge (which works both ways in other parties) and an 80+ seat majority means Hancock could come out today and say he's spray painted profanity on a war memorial and he'd still be Health Secretary in a year's time. 9 1
Popular Post Voll Blau Posted 10 June 2021 Popular Post Posted 10 June 2021 46 minutes ago, Footballwipe said: Doesn't really matter though, does it? There's no accountability, no bounce back, no consequence. Ride the wave, survive the news cycle and move on to the next thing. Blind loyalty to the Johnson/Tory badge (which works both ways in other parties) and an 80+ seat majority means Hancock could come out today and say he's spray painted profanity on a war memorial and he'd still be Health Secretary in a year's time. Yep. Likewise with another judgment of unlawful behaviour from the Government yesterday. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-57413115 Corrupt as fvck. We're now a country where cheating and lying your way through life is held in the highest regard. It's a national embarrassment, but who cares? That's hair's all messy and funny hahaha! 9 1
Buce Posted 10 June 2021 Author Posted 10 June 2021 55 minutes ago, Footballwipe said: Doesn't really matter though, does it? There's no accountability, no bounce back, no consequence. Ride the wave, survive the news cycle and move on to the next thing. Blind loyalty to the Johnson/Tory badge (which works both ways in other parties) and an 80+ seat majority means Hancock could come out today and say he's spray painted profanity on a war memorial and he'd still be Health Secretary in a year's time. Ridiculous. I doubt he could spell profanity.
CosbehFox Posted 10 June 2021 Posted 10 June 2021 Well we only have to look at a false furore regards a portrait of the Queen and sportsmen past social media posts to disguise a cluster**** of the NI/Brexit headache, an unlawfully awarded contract, Hancock ignoring advice regards the Care homes leading to numerous deaths and a £70 million spend on a summit regards climate change. What a political system! 1
Buce Posted 10 June 2021 Author Posted 10 June 2021 4 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said: Well we only have to look at a false furore regards a portrait of the Queen and sportsmen past social media posts to disguise a cluster**** of the NI/Brexit headache, an unlawfully awarded contract, Hancock ignoring advice regards the Care homes leading to numerous deaths and a £70 million spend on a summit regards climate change. What a political system! Every country has the government it deserves. Joseph de Maistre 2
BenTheFox Posted 10 June 2021 Posted 10 June 2021 13 hours ago, UpTheLeagueFox said: I thought there might be some movement with Starmer's interview and the tightening of travel restrictions but there'll definitely be anger if June 21st gets pushed back. Batley & Spen I think will be a narrow Labour hold anyway, enough for KS to hang on. As for the other KS analogy, I agree mate. Kasper might have had a shocker in the cup final rather than vs Spurs so we didn't get the cup but managed top four. Fine margins as always. Lot of talk of Andy Burnham being a shout for Labour leader but he isn't an MP, he would have to wait for one of those roles to come up first presumably. I may be wrong but I think that he'd be a smart choice. I think he's presentable enough that he can appeal to voters who don't really have an allegiance to a political party, but also he's more in touch with working class voters in the North and the Midlands having earned credibility with his involvement in the Hillsborough inquiry and the way he stood up for Greater Manchester when they put under local covid restrictions.
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