Not The Politics Thread.

[Buce]

1 hour ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

 

The parties were level pegging on 38% in Survation's last poll at the end of April.

PS Don't think Survation is or ever has been Tory-owned.

 

 

 

 

Christ, you must have a really empty life.

[UpTheLeagueFox]

47 minutes ago, Bellend Sebastian said:

Given that the data for the poll above was gathered BEFORE Cummings' 'revelations', how do we think an updated poll would look now? Given by how things have been, a couple more points for the Tories, I expect.

To swing 11 points is quite something. There hasn't been, to my knowledge, anything in the past 4 weeks which has been really seismic (good or bad) from either side to indicate such a swing so it's actually quite baffling really. 

The alleged sleaze stuff seemed to cut through a bit in polls but that was before the elections at the start of the month.

The next test will be the Batley & Spen by election at the start of July which should be a Labour hold.

[Raj]

The general  public do not care at the moment with what's actually going on.

BlowJo could literally say anything and do what he wants and people will just shrug their shoulders and say" Meh its olde Boris innit!".

It's an amazing situation to be in.

He's like a boxer on the ropes swaying his opponents punches and you just know he will catch whoever's the opponent  is with a thunderous right uppercut!

Hes a very very lucky man.

[foxile5]

18 minutes ago, Raj said:

The general  public do not care at the moment with what's actually going on.

BlowJo could literally say anything and do what he wants and people will just shrug their shoulders and say" Meh its olde Boris innit!".

It's an amazing situation to be in.

He's like a boxer on the ropes swaying his opponents punches and you just know he will catch whoever's the opponent  is with a thunderous right uppercut!

Hes a very very lucky man.

It's not lucky. This is the 'my old mate Boris' persona he's crafted. People are very forgiving if they feel connected. 

[Heathrow fox]

On 10/05/2021 at 22:46, Facecloth said:

Yeah my mistake on Anderson was using my phone and could only see the left side of the 

Edited 27 May 2021 by Heathrow fox
Wrong thread

[Alf Bentley]

6 hours ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

 

The parties were level pegging on 38% in Survation's last poll at the end of April.

PS Don't think Survation is or ever has been Tory-owned.

 

 

 

That Survation poll in April looks to have been a rogue poll.

While a lot of polls had the parties at level-pegging before Xmas, almost all polls had the Tories well ahead by April - a trend confirmed by the council elections in May.

 

So, there probably hasn't been anything like an 11% swing. The current poll is probably about right - but the one in April looks to have been rogue, overstating Lab vote and understating Con vote.

 

Unsurprisingly, the bookies have the Tories as odds-on favourites to win the Batley & Spen byelection - 3500 Lab majority with 6500 votes going to an ex-UKIP independent in 2019.

 

I can't imagine that all the Cummings shenanigans will have much impact. Plenty of voters assume all politicians are incompetent and self-seeking - and just accept that these were difficult times, which we're now leaving behind us for post-Covid sunlit uplands.

 

What might have a big impact on the polls in the short-term & on the byelection result is if there's a real upsurge in Covid hospitalisations due to the new variant - and particularly if the Govt is forced to delay the final relaxation of lockdown on 21st June. That would rather dent the mood of relief and optimism.

[Dunge]

4 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

That Survation poll in April looks to have been a rogue poll.

While a lot of polls had the parties at level-pegging before Xmas, almost all polls had the Tories well ahead by April - a trend confirmed by the council elections in May.

 

So, there probably hasn't been anything like an 11% swing. The current poll is probably about right - but the one in April looks to have been rogue, overstating Lab vote and understating Con vote.

 

Unsurprisingly, the bookies have the Tories as odds-on favourites to win the Batley & Spen byelection - 3500 Lab majority with 6500 votes going to an ex-UKIP independent in 2019.

 

I can't imagine that all the Cummings shenanigans will have much impact. Plenty of voters assume all politicians are incompetent and self-seeking - and just accept that these were difficult times, which we're now leaving behind us for post-Covid sunlit uplands.

 

What might have a big impact on the polls in the short-term & on the byelection result is if there's a real upsurge in Covid hospitalisations due to the new variant - and particularly if the Govt is forced to delay the final relaxation of lockdown on 21st June. That would rather dent the mood of relief and optimism.

Maybe I’m being naive, but I reckon the choice of Labour candidate will be highly significant in Batley & Spen. I understand Jo Cox’s sister will be standing for them, and that she’s massively respected in the area. So my money would be on that local choice transcending national party politics. But as I say, maybe I’m calling it wrong.

[Alf Bentley]

4 minutes ago, Dunge said:

Maybe I’m being naive, but I reckon the choice of Labour candidate will be highly significant in Batley & Spen. I understand Jo Cox’s sister will be standing for them, and that she’s massively respected in the area. So my money would be on that local choice transcending national party politics. But as I say, maybe I’m calling it wrong.

 

That's certainly one of a few factors that give Labour a slightly better chance than in Hartlepool, I'd say. But they're still underdogs given the state of the polls overall (not any one single poll).

 

Even a popular or unpopular local candidate usually only has a minor impact on the outcome (maybe slightly more in a byelection). So, if the candidate is well respected, that will probably only be crucial in a close race.

If Johnson does end up delaying or diluting the 21st June end of lockdown, though, I reckon that could conceivably swing it. We'll see in a few weeks, I suppose.

[Tuna]

 

[Chocolate Teapot]

I see GB news is finally getting around to launching.

 

A big reason for the delay is apparently its founder Andrew Neil, a proud patriot, being stuck on the French riveria. 

 

Theyve obviously spent a lot of money on presenters and they see a gap in the market, however I'm interested to see whether it'll stick. I don't buy the hysterical 'it'll be just like fox' it'll still be regulated by ofcom so I don't see it heading down that path.

 

Nice they've employed the lovely Dan Wooton, a man who's never had a bad word said about him. 

[UpTheLeagueFox]

On 28/05/2021 at 00:11, Alf Bentley said:

I can't imagine that all the Cummings shenanigans will have much impact.

Early days but the first post-Cummings poll has been released by Survation.

"26% of Brits tell Survation they watched the story of Dominic Cummings giving evidence to a parliamentary committee on Wednesday closely."

Might actually be a bit soon for any fallout to really cut through.

I suspect the real changes will come if lockdown easing later this month is pushed back as some have suggested might happen. The Govt will get a clobbering over that for sure.

 

 

[doverfox]

Have we learnt nothing from the last two football seasons it is only where you end up after the last game that matters. So regardless of what the polls say it only matters what the result of the count of votes cast at the ballot box in an election.

[UpTheLeagueFox]

2 hours ago, doverfox said:

Have we learnt nothing from the last two football seasons it is only where you end up after the last game that matters. So regardless of what the polls say it only matters what the result of the count of votes cast at the ballot box in an election.

Polls do give you a sense of how the political winds are blowing over a period of time, how the electorate react to what those in power, and those who aren't, are saying and doing, what's working and what isn't etc. If these polls were largely irrelevant, the pollsters wouldn't spend so much time and money doing them on a regular basis. You're right that the only ones that really matter are GE's, by elections and, to a lesser extent, local elections.

They've been grim reading for Keith for some time but the latest one might give him a boost, a seven point swing in Labour's favour, although admittedly it's not where he'd want to be but I suspect their HQ will be slightly lifted by movement in the right direction for them.

 

 

[Gordon the Great]

On 27/05/2021 at 16:22, Voll Blau said:

 

Pathetic that we've lowered ourselves to a man this week and cowardly leading the country.

 

But who needs scrutiny when the polls says he's fine and dandy, eh? Don't argue with the polls. It's your problem if you can't understand why people still love this absolute fvcking excuse of a Prime Minister. 

You may need to get used to it, I fancy Boris may well outdo Maggie's 11 years.

[Gordon the Great]

On 28/05/2021 at 00:32, Alf Bentley said:

 

That's certainly one of a few factors that give Labour a slightly better chance than in Hartlepool, I'd say. But they're still underdogs given the state of the polls overall (not any one single poll).

 

Even a popular or unpopular local candidate usually only has a minor impact on the outcome (maybe slightly more in a byelection). So, if the candidate is well respected, that will probably only be crucial in a close race.

If Johnson does end up delaying or diluting the 21st June end of lockdown, though, I reckon that could conceivably swing it. We'll see in a few weeks, I suppose.

If they can`t win this one with a mid term government, the sentiment vote for Jo Cox`s sister and the Cummings back stabbings they really are in trouble, Big trouble.

[WigstonWanderer]

Honestly think that political correctness and identity politics (I’m no expert) play so badly with people my age that Labour face a huge uphill battle at least partially of their own making. Perhaps when my generation have laid down and died things might change, but by that time there could well be a backlash against this humourless philosophy by future young people. People seem to have lost the ability to laugh at themselves. Perhaps I shouldn’t post when I’m pissed.

[Dunge]

1 hour ago, WigstonWanderer said:

Honestly think that political correctness and identity politics (I’m no expert) play so badly with people my age that Labour face a huge uphill battle at least partially of their own making. Perhaps when my generation have laid down and died things might change, but by that time there could well be a backlash against this humourless philosophy by future young people. People seem to have lost the ability to laugh at themselves. Perhaps I shouldn’t post when I’m pissed.

I say keep doing it because I agree with what you’ve written. 

[leicsmac]

1 hour ago, WigstonWanderer said:

Honestly think that political correctness and identity politics (I’m no expert) play so badly with people my age that Labour face a huge uphill battle at least partially of their own making. Perhaps when my generation have laid down and died things might change, but by that time there could well be a backlash against this humourless philosophy by future young people. People seem to have lost the ability to laugh at themselves. Perhaps I shouldn’t post when I’m pissed.

I've no reason to suspect that you're wrong, to be honest.

 

However, then the big question becomes: how do we address the problems that idpol and PC seek to correct? Because those problems clearly do exist.

[yorkie1999]

15 hours ago, doverfox said:

Have we learnt nothing from the last two football seasons it is only where you end up after the last game that matters. So regardless of what the polls say it only matters what the result of the count of votes cast at the ballot box in an election.

It’s not about how it ends up, it’s about providing pointless jobs to pointless people.

[leicsmac]

12 hours ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

Polls do give you a sense of how the political winds are blowing over a period of time, how the electorate react to what those in power, and those who aren't, are saying and doing, what's working and what isn't etc. If these polls were largely irrelevant, the pollsters wouldn't spend so much time and money doing them on a regular basis. You're right that the only ones that really matter are GE's, by elections and, to a lesser extent, local elections.

They've been grim reading for Keith for some time but the latest one might give him a boost, a seven point swing in Labour's favour, although admittedly it's not where he'd want to be but I suspect their HQ will be slightly lifted by movement in the right direction for them.

 

 

This is true.

 

If we want to overextend the metaphor that is being used here, you can't really formulate a plan for the latter part of the season when you don't know what the league table looks like, can you? Not exactly pointless.

[Guest ttfn]

Boris failing the “half your age plus 7” rule is this week’s real scandal.

[Sharpe's Fox]

7 minutes ago, ttfn said:

Boris failing the “half your age plus 7” rule is this week’s real scandal.

for Boris it's now 3 Weddings and 150,000 Funerals.

[DANGEROUS TIGER]

Hearty congratulations, Boris. Hope you will both be very happy together.    

[DANGEROUS TIGER]

On 27/05/2021 at 18:57, Bellend Sebastian said:

Given that the data for the poll above was gathered BEFORE Cummings' 'revelations', how do we think an updated poll would look now? Given by how things have been, a couple more points for the Tories, I expect.

 

You know that thing when the right wing media pile on to a left wing politician or commentator, asking why does so and so hate Britain so much?  At the minute it feels like the electorate hate Britain more than anyone. Think I'll try it myself, will probably make things easier

However did Dominic Cummings escape from his straight jacket? 

[ozleicester]

Out of interest, havent polls been found to be completely useless over the past 5 years...

Brexit wrong

Trump wrong

Aust Gvt Wrong

People have figured out what pollsters want and answer to influence polls rather than tell the truth