Ukraine

[SpacedX]

4 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

The first step to any atrocity is viewing the "other", as a people or group, as less than human.

The irony being that the amateur historian Putin declares Ukrainians and Russians to be “one people”. One of the reasons that Lenin lay the foundations of the modern Ukraine in terms of formal independence lay in his recognition that of its separate language and culture, concession to which was absolutely necessary if the Bolsheviks were to maintain control over it.

 

Vladimir Putin has made his objectives very clear and his motives can be divined in part from his book and his frequent essays and major speeches, all seething with resentment, propaganda and pompous self-justification. As @String fellow alludes to , he deploys what is known as “useful history” manipulated through collective and selective memory for his personal and political agenda, as a means to smother himself and the Russian state with the illusion of legitimacy. In terms of the justification for invading Ukraine, this self-contradictory useful history is now at full stretch. We are told that this is not an invasion but a "reunification" - to you, a "military operation" (don't mention the war) -  it’s not a violation of international law but the return of historic Russian land. In his autobiography, "First Person", he states: “If you become jittery, they will think that they are stronger,”. Then going on to describe his contempt towards Russia’s enemies. “Only one thing works in such circumstances - to go on the offensive. You must hit first, and hit so hard that your opponent will not rise to his feet.”

[leicsmac]

7 minutes ago, Line-X said:

The irony being that the amateur historian Putin declares Ukrainians and Russians to be “one people”. One of the reasons that Lenin lay the foundations of the modern Ukraine in terms of formal independence lay in his recognition that of its separate language and culture, concession to which was absolutely necessary if the Bolsheviks were to maintain control over it.

 

Vladimir Putin has made his objectives very clear and his motives can be divined in part from his book and his frequent essays and major speeches, all seething with resentment, propaganda and pompous self-justification. As @String fellow alludes to , he deploys what is known as “useful history” manipulated through collective and selective memory for his personal and political agenda, as a means to smother himself and the Russian state with the illusion of legitimacy. In terms of the justification for invading Ukraine, this self-contradictory useful history is now at full stretch. We are told that this is not an invasion but a "reunification" - to you, a "military operation" (don't mention the war) -  it’s not a violation of international law but the return of historic Russian land. In his autobiography, "First Person", he states: “If you become jittery, they will think that they are stronger,”. Then going on to describe his contempt towards Russia’s enemies. “Only one thing works in such circumstances - to go on the offensive. You must hit first, and hit so hard that your opponent will not rise to his feet.”

An observation on the bolded:

 

This is another reason why all the talk of "rebuilding the Soviet Union" is wide of the mark here, unless one wants to engage in some good old-fashioned "ZOMGZ COMMIE!" Red Scare-stirring. Putin's mindset is very much Russian Empire/Tsarist in outlook here; he's hardly a reborn Bolshevik.

[Innovindil]

17 minutes ago, Zear0 said:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/mar/07/donald-trump-russia-ukraine-jets-chinese

 

Nobel Peace Prize winning solution put forward by Biden's predecessor.

Ridiculously not even the most insane idea these threads have produced. 

[Sampson]

Apparently the UK only has 1 person (currently) processing visa applications, in Warsaw - Poland. (LBC) 
 

 

[SecretPro]

4 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Apparently the UK only has 1 person (currently) processing visa applications, in Warsaw - Poland. (LBC) 
 

 

The very large racist part of Britain will be overjoyed with this.

Edited 7 March 2022 by SecretPro

[SpacedX]

44 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

An observation on the bolded:

 

This is another reason why all the talk of "rebuilding the Soviet Union" is wide of the mark here, unless one wants to engage in some good old-fashioned "ZOMGZ COMMIE!" Red Scare-stirring. Putin's mindset is very much Russian Empire/Tsarist in outlook here; he's hardly a reborn Bolshevik.

He is the self-styled cultural and ethnic personification of the Slavic people - but he regards the demise of the 'Soviet Empire' as the 'greatest geopolitical tragedy of the century'. 

[ClaphamFox]

52 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

An observation on the bolded:

 

This is another reason why all the talk of "rebuilding the Soviet Union" is wide of the mark here, unless one wants to engage in some good old-fashioned "ZOMGZ COMMIE!" Red Scare-stirring. Putin's mindset is very much Russian Empire/Tsarist in outlook here; he's hardly a reborn Bolshevik.

Have you not been paying any attention to the things that Putin has actually said?

[WigstonWanderer]

1 hour ago, Line-X said:

Steady with the Russophobia. You don't know what he has been lead to believe or influences his belief, and may be perpetuating one based upon the liberation of the country from tyrants and oppressors as opposed to some arrogant nationalistic or provocative statement. The Kremlin is responsible for these atrocities, not the majority of the Russian people. 

But as I mentioned in another thread, having just escaped one dictatorship, stumbling into another almost immediately is positively careless.They cannot escape some of the blame for allowing Putin to rise to power. Of course, the West are complicit by cosying up to the oligarchs and doing business for cheap oil, etc.

Edited 7 March 2022 by WigstonWanderer

[leicsmac]

11 minutes ago, Line-X said:

He is the self-styled cultural and ethnic personification of the Slavic people - but he regards the demise of the 'Soviet Empire' as the 'greatest geopolitical tragedy of the century'. 

Perhaps there's a bit of both in there then, but see below.

 

7 minutes ago, ClaphamFox said:

Have you not been paying any attention to the things that Putin has actually said?

I've been paying more attention to what he does: which, as Line-X pointed out doesn't exactly tally with the way the Bolsheviks did things when they ran the show in terms of ideological standpoint - even during the days on post-WWII Iron Curtain building.

 

Also, the guy did say "Whoever does not miss the Soviet Union has no heart. Whoever wants it back has no brain." Perhaps when he said that he was either lying or has done a 180 on the topic, who knows.

 

I maintain that direct Soviet comparisons without further nuance are lazy.

Edited 7 March 2022 by leicsmac

[Stivo]

Proposed peace deal

 

https://twitter.com/christogrozev

With some negotiation it might work.  It’s a humiliating climb down for Putin, he cannot keep the troops quiet when they get home…

[Lionator]

13 minutes ago, Stivo said:

Proposed peace deal

 

https://twitter.com/christogrozev

With some negotiation it might work.  It’s a humiliating climb down for Putin, he cannot keep the troops quiet when they get home…

It’s a starting point, Ukraine won’t accept this although I think Germany have pretty much said no today to them joining the EU/NATO, which means that bit of it may be done before it’s over. 

[MPH]

 

How kind of Putin to offer an evacuation corridor for refugees right into Russia. And no where else.

 

 

A perfect human shield in case this escalates.

[Stivo]

15 minutes ago, Lionator said:

It’s a starting point, Ukraine won’t accept this although I think Germany have pretty much said no today to them joining the EU/NATO, which means that bit of it may be done before it’s over. 

You are right. Joining nato with an unresolved territorial dispute was never possible.  Ukraine have shown Russia that it can never win a war against them so they don’t actually need Nato.

 

Ukraine would surely demand that the breakaways have no forces other than customs as an example and no foreign troops or irregulars.

it’s tough but diplomacy isn’t about right and wrong it’s the art of the possible.

 

the bigger loss is the eu, but having dealt with war, maybe the west and Russia could agree to remove sanctions in 6 months and let Ukraine have some associate membership like Norway

 

there is a shed load of face saving going on, I doubt Russia really cares long term.

Edited 7 March 2022 by Stivo

[MPH]

9 minutes ago, Lionator said:

It’s a starting point, Ukraine won’t accept this although I think Germany have pretty much said no today to them joining the EU/NATO, which means that bit of it may be done before it’s over. 

 

no way would the Ukrainians accept those terms. Recognizing the sovereignty of those areas is bad enough but not allowing them to Join NATO is a deal breaker.

[ClaphamFox]

39 minutes ago, Stivo said:

Proposed peace deal

 

https://twitter.com/christogrozev

With some negotiation it might work.  It’s a humiliating climb down for Putin, he cannot keep the troops quiet when they get home…

The proposed deal is a lot more humiliating for Ukraine than it is for Putin. It gives Putin a way out that will enable him to save face, even if it's not exactly what he wanted. It doesn't help Ukraine's future prospects in any way whatsoever.

[st albans fox]

The problem is what guarantees would ukraine have in the future to stop the same thing occurring? Russia wants ukraine to declare neutrality but what security does ukraine get ??

 

But I think there are some chinks of light from that statement ………

 

 

 

 

[Lionator]

21 minutes ago, MPH said:

 

no way would the Ukrainians accept those terms. Recognizing the sovereignty of those areas is bad enough but not allowing them to Join NATO is a deal breaker.

But if NATO won’t accept Ukraine then what’s the point of them putting that on the table with Russia? They need some sort of security arrangement. 

[st albans fox]

2 minutes ago, ClaphamFox said:

The proposed deal is a lot more humiliating for Ukraine than it is for Putin. It gives Putin a way out that will enable him to save face, even if it's not exactly what he wanted. It doesn't help Ukraine's future prospects in any way whatsoever.

Humiliation?  Ukraine will have withstood an invasion from the red army …… They are not humiliated …..

 it will be their ‘boxing day’ song for ever more !

[Lionator]

23 minutes ago, Stivo said:

You are right. Joining nato with an unresolved territorial dispute was never possible.  Ukraine have shown Russia that it can never win a war against them so they don’t actually need Nato.

 

Ukraine would surely demand that the breakaways have no forces other than customs as an example and no foreign troops or irregulars.

it’s tough but diplomacy isn’t about right and wrong it’s the art of the possible.

 

the bigger loss is the eu, but having dealt with war, maybe the west and Russia could agree to remove sanctions in 6 months and let Ukraine have some associate membership like Norway

 

there is a shed load of face saving going on, I doubt Russia really cares long term.

You’re right here about the last part. The West will hate Putin anyway, for China/India/UAE this changes pretty much nothing. For the Russian population, their interpretation of events can be manipulated. Sanctions probably drop after a few weeks/months and everyone moves on. It’s tragic. 

[LiberalFox]

Unless I missed something isn't it giving Putin everything he wanted? Russian puppet government - check. Breakaway regions officially out of Ukraine - check. Ukraine out of NATO&EU - check. Crimea officially part of Russia - check.

 

It's up to Zelenskyy but I don't see that being accepted and if it were there would almost certainly be some form of insurgency. 

[nnfox]

1 minute ago, LiberalFox said:

Unless I missed something isn't it giving Putin everything he wanted? Russian puppet government - check. Breakaway regions officially out of Ukraine - check. Ukraine out of NATO&EU - check. Crimea officially part of Russia - check.

 

It's up to Zelenskyy but I don't see that being accepted and if it were there would almost certainly be some form of insurgency. 

Dead right.  This has been Russia's stance for a while.  Ukraine won't fold to these demands.

[ClaphamFox]

5 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Humiliation?  Ukraine will have withstood an invasion from the red army …… They are not humiliated …..

 it will be their ‘boxing day’ song for ever more !

Being forced to agree to a deal that will effectively ban Ukraine from forming alliances of its own choosing is humiliating. It's basically making Ukraine a vassal state of Russia, which is what Putin wants. That's why I can't see Zelenksy even considering this.

Edited 7 March 2022 by ClaphamFox

[Countryfox]

I think the minute an aircraft from Poland gets up in the sky and shoots down a Rusky jet will be a pivotal moment. Although Putin has decreed many actions as ‘acts of war’ this one is right in his face, and if he does nothing could be seen as an act of weakness.  The question is what does he do ..  no way he’ll target the primary supplier ie the US (bullies never pick on someone stronger) but he might consider a missile attack on an airbase in Poland (nuclear???). If that’s the case what would NATO do ? ..  they are there to defend all members but would any form of retaliation be deemed defensive ?? ..  I think it would be a very prudent move to categorically and openly state that any attack on a NATO country would be a declaration of war. 

[Stivo]

We are talking on the basis that the puppet pm is negotiated away, it seems to have been dropped but may pop up again.

4 minutes ago, LiberalFox said:

Unless I missed something isn't it giving Putin everything he wanted? Russian puppet government - check. Breakaway regions officially out of Ukraine - check. Ukraine out of NATO&EU - check. Crimea officially part of Russia - check.

 

It's up to Zelenskyy but I don't see that being accepted and if it were there would almost certainly be some form of insurgency. 

The puppet pm is a non starter and seems to have disappeared in the Russian statement.

 

the breakaways and crimea are lost unless they want to invade over the line of control, yes it’s wrong but they didn’t control them last week.  Get them demilitarised so there is no threat to rest of the disputed land in Ukraine proper and the shelling stops.

 

constitutions can be changed , they could never have joined nato with an outstanding territorial dispute - it’s not allowed.

 

the eu can be fudged in a few years.

[Stivo]

10 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Humiliation?  Ukraine will have withstood an invasion from the red army …… They are not humiliated …..

 it will be their ‘boxing day’ song for ever more !

Imagine the victory parade , tractor after tractor…