LCFC v Cov - Post Match Thread

[Corky]

Hardest game so far and thought we were decent in the main. Like the look of James, Winks played well as did Fatawu. We desperately need to drop or move Ayew, our wingers are too quick for him to stay up with. 

 

Take the point and move on.

[Parafox]

13 minutes ago, Muzzy_no7 said:

1. Ayew cannot continue playing up top.

 

2. Winks was brilliant and has to start moving forward.

 

3. Stiffy needs benching. 

4. Luke Thomas is a major weak link, VK deserves a shot. 

 

5. Soumare needs dropping, move JJ deeper and put Ayew at 10 until Ramsay is back. 

Pretty much agree apart from point 4.

 

Neither are competent at LB. Thomas is weak in most challenges and his distribution is poor when he has the ball, VK runs around a lot, but so does my dog and the dog doesn't achieve anything either. 

[ClaphamFox]

3 minutes ago, CH1_Fox said:

Must have watched a different game to most on here. Far from perfect but thought we did ok today, and I’m feeling much better about the rest of the season after today. They will be one of the better sides this season and we really should have won the game

If we’d have played with an actual centre forward (by which I mean Carranza) from the start I think we would have won. Overall it was a decent performance - not perfect, but we were resilient, kept another clean sheet and put together some very nice passages of play. If we carry on improving, which we will, we’ll be in the mix at the top at the end of the season. I’d have taken that before the season started. 

[The Doctor]

1 hour ago, Number 6 said:

There's no single way to go up. You can be a free scoring team or a right defensive one. You've just got to get the results.

Well yes, but you're ignoring that to get the results you need to score goals. Like, Burnley are an absurd outlier.

 

In the last 10 seasons (not scraping more data than that for the sake of a point), the average goals scored by promoted teams is 77, rising to 80 for those promoted automatically, while goals conceded is 41, dropping to 38 for those promoted automatically - Burnley are at basically half that of the closest defences (Leeds last season and Watford 20/21, both with 30 conceded).

 

In terms of our defence, at 5 conceded in 6 games we're par for 38 conceded in a season, which is fine, perfectly respectable, but it's not Burnley levels of absurd, and only 8 teams have gone up in the last decade scoring less than 70 (6 through play-offs), only 3 less than 60, all through the playoffs. We're currently at a rate of 61. We desperately need to score more goals.

 

Edit: Since I've got nothing better to do on a saturday night apparently, I ran prediction intervals on the 10 seasons worth of data. Expected position for a team scoring 61 goals is 11.32, in the interval 10.73 - 11.91 with 95% probability - so, a thoroughly midtable return that would get you 11th or 12th.. For a team conceding 38, 3.85, in the interval 2.78 - 4.92 with 95% probability (so, 3rd to 5th, good play-off return). Our defence is looking good for a promotion challenge, our attack is nowhere near what you would want for a promotion challenge.

Edited 20 September 2025 by The Doctor

[Parafox]

5 minutes ago, ClaphamFox said:

If we’d have played with an actual centre forward (by which I mean Carranza) from the start I think we would have won. Overall it was a decent performance - not perfect, but we were resilient, kept another clean sheet and put together some very nice passages of play. If we carry on improving, which we will, we’ll be in the mix at the top at the end of the season. I’d have taken that before the season started. 

 

Some of the negative naysayers on this forum need to face facts. (Not you). We're never going to have a Maresca season in the Championship again. We will be ok without being completely dominant like we were 2 years ago. There's a reason Maresca is now manager of a PL side like Chelsea and why we won the Champ easily.

Some supporters need to move on. Even move on from the PL title and the FA cup, but so many can't, and they expect the success of those halcyon times to be repeated. Never gonna happen again. 

That said I think we have it in us to be a regular PL side if there was proper interest from KP. 

 

[StanSP]

Anyone got a clip of their player falling over the ball in front of their fans

 

[Stadt]

Carranza’s header was a completely run of the mill bit of forward play but it was so refreshing just watching a striker move near the goal.

 

Besides the obvious negative impact on our ability to win the game just watching Ayew does my head in. The bloke plays hero ball all the time but it’s like he’s got steel toe caps on.

Edited 20 September 2025 by Stadt

[Xen]

1 hour ago, Parafox said:

Pretty much agree apart from point 4.

 

Neither are competent at LB. Thomas is weak in most challenges and his distribution is poor when he has the ball, VK runs around a lot, but so does my dog and the dog doesn't achieve anything either. 

Luke struggled today, but they were constantly doubled up on him and he had Mavididi and Soumare 'helping' him down that side, which is enough pressure to make anyone look bad. I don't think VK solves that problem, although if we can fix the supporting positions then VK would probably be the better LB. Not much in it though, both decent if unspectacular championship full backs.

- - - - - -

 

 

As for Ayew, I'm not sure where I've got this from as he doesnt come across as arrogant in interviews or anything, but when he plays he always seems like he thinks he has main character energy. A reasonable option in the side/off the bench, sure, but he's one of the most infuriating players to watch. Hopefully when Ramsey is back and Carranza settled, they'll be the AM/ST pairing

[Number 6]

1 hour ago, The Doctor said:

Well yes, but you're ignoring that to get the results you need to score goals. Like, Burnley are an absurd outlier.

 

In the last 10 seasons (not scraping more data than that for the sake of a point), the average goals scored by promoted teams is 77, rising to 80 for those promoted automatically, while goals conceded is 41, dropping to 38 for those promoted automatically - Burnley are at basically half that of the closest defences (Leeds last season and Watford 20/21, both with 30 conceded).

 

In terms of our defence, at 5 conceded in 6 games we're par for 38 conceded in a season, which is fine, perfectly respectable, but it's not Burnley levels of absurd, and only 8 teams have gone up in the last decade scoring less than 70 (6 through play-offs), only 3 less than 60, all through the playoffs. We're currently at a rate of 61. We desperately need to score more goals.

 

Edit: Since I've got nothing better to do on a saturday night apparently, I ran prediction intervals on the 10 seasons worth of data. Expected position for a team scoring 61 goals is 11.32, in the interval 10.73 - 11.91 with 95% probability - so, a thoroughly midtable return that would get you 11th or 12th.. For a team conceding 38, 3.85, in the interval 2.78 - 4.92 with 95% probability (so, 3rd to 5th, good play-off return). Our defence is looking good for a promotion challenge, our attack is nowhere near what you would want for a promotion challenge.

I quoted Burnley but literally only one team scored above 70 goals last season. It's also looking like a very open season this season. 

 

I'd hope our attacking output improves over the season, but I won't grumble if we're picking up results. We're still working with a very small sample on determining what our attacking output is likely to live.

[DesertFox]

Cov were pretty crap. Birmingham were fairly lame. Ipswich, Southampton, Sheff U all having shockers.

The one thing we have learned this season is the same thing we were saying this time two years ago - the Championship is absolute horse shit! 💩

It's there for the taking. But can we take it?

[The Doctor]

28 minutes ago, Number 6 said:

I quoted Burnley but literally only one team scored above 70 goals last season. It's also looking like a very open season this season. 

 

I'd hope our attacking output improves over the season, but I won't grumble if we're picking up results. We're still working with a very small sample on determining what our attacking output is likely to live.

Last season was something of an outlier in that regard though. Early doors sure but currently 5-8 teams are on course to hit around the 70 goal mark and historically speaking a team with our current attacking output and defensive output, sustained over a season, would just sneak into the play-offs. As you say, small sample size and if we'd scored today, our current output sustained over a season would be around a third place finish, but its really our attack that is dragging us down

Edited 20 September 2025 by The Doctor

[MPH]

6 hours ago, SafewayFox said:

Daka, Page showed that was possibly his biggest attribute yet doesn’t even make the bench.

 

Abdul has the work rate to do this, Stephy if someone has a word and he’s not sulking.

 

Apparently Carranza is a good presser too.

 

Ayew up top will always prevent a collective press, hate to say it but similarly like Vardy the past season or two.

I personally wouldn’t  pick a striker who can’t hit a cow’s arse with A banjo just because he can press.

 

and I’d actually argue he can press. Stays too central. Might take a few steps towards the goalkeeper but that’s about it..

[brookfox]

Tbh I thought there were a lot of positives to take despite the result:

Winks, Faes and Ricardo back in the 11 and all looking good.

James looked positive. Clearly an 8 not a 10 but should’ve scored and got into good positions.

Decent cameo from Carranza.

Overall the desire looks back.

We’re not in the Prem so don't have to hear Rooneys expert analysis on us on MotM or experience VAR.

 

The main questions seem to be what to do with Stephy and Ayew. Both have strengths but not firing currently.

[SafewayFox]

2 hours ago, MPH said:

I personally wouldn’t  pick a striker who can’t hit a cow’s arse with A banjo just because he can press.

 

and I’d actually argue he can press. Stays too central. Might take a few steps towards the goalkeeper but that’s about it..

I don’t like Daka myself but the experiment of Ayew as the 9 is hardly being fruitful.

 

We cannot expect to win games when struggle to score, would happily take a pressing Carranza and Page if means that we actually pin back the oppositions back 4/5.

 

We must be so easy to defend against right now as it’s all played in front of their CB’s.

[Dan]

Another wank first half. He's got to fix that.

[LCFCJohn]

11 hours ago, Number 6 said:

Burnley scored 69 goals last season.

We will concede about 3 times more than they did across the season to be fair though so we will need to score a lot more to get the results.

[dayday]

10 hours ago, Parafox said:

 

Some of the negative naysayers on this forum need to face facts. (Not you). We're never going to have a Maresca season in the Championship again. We will be ok without being completely dominant like we were 2 years ago. There's a reason Maresca is now manager of a PL side like Chelsea and why we won the Champ easily.

Some supporters need to move on. Even move on from the PL title and the FA cup, but so many can't, and they expect the success of those halcyon times to be repeated. Never gonna happen again. 

That said I think we have it in us to be a regular PL side if there was proper interest from KP. 

 

Did we really win the champ easily , if it wasn’t for our really good start then who  knows what would have happened.

 

 

[LCFCJohn]

I thought it was a decent game. We definitely looked like we have the potential to click with how we played in the second half until we faded at the end. Overall, I think we need to be quicker, more dynamic and press. Just have a higher tempo about what we do as everything seems very slow and laboured.

 

Positives were keeping Coventry out as they have shown they can score for fun this season. Winks, James, Ricardo and Fatawu were very good as well. I liked the look of Carranza and hope he can be the striker we need. I agree with others that say whilst Ayew is not a bad player, he hinders us when playing as striker. He is always too deep and there’s no outlet up top which Carranza immediately showed he will be. Monga also excellent when he came on.

 

Less positive.

 

Choudhury was a bomb scare when he came on. Turning into trouble and seemed determined to give it away.

 

I always feel we are conceding every time the opposition come forward with Faes and Vestergaard. Nobody will convince me otherwise that they are poor poor players and defenders who purely get away with it at this level. Even if we go up, knowing these two will still be in contract and probably be the partnership again just means we come straight back down in embarrassing fashion again. Vestergaard was so sloppy late in the game. He gave the ball away a few times. Faes when he got lost under the ball! Thankfully it was in their half not ours. But yeah, Nelson’s the problem!

 

Attacking set pieces awful. What is Hughes doing?

 

Mav was poor but was growing into the game before the miss. I don’t know if he needs a spell out the side or playing into form.

[LCFCJohn]

5 minutes ago, dayday said:

Did we really win the champ easily , if it wasn’t for our really good start then who  knows what would have happened.

 

 

No, our points total flattered us in the end I thought. We weren’t particularly good for large parts of the season and like you say, that run in September/October carried us but we were average at best most of the rest of that season.

[Pliskin]

11 hours ago, Parafox said:

Pretty much agree apart from point 4.

 

Neither are competent at LB. Thomas is weak in most challenges and his distribution is poor when he has the ball, VK runs around a lot, but so does my dog and the dog doesn't achieve anything either. 

I do agree with the point about Thomas. He’s got away with a lot mainly due to the poor standards int he final third in this league. Sakamoto turned him inside out at times albeit to no avail ultimately. 
 

I think VK might be worth giving a go, because his willingness to drive forward. I do think he would be slightly better than Thomas at this level. Thomas is a steady defender….. but I’m not adverse to dropping him for VK.  

[teblin]

One thing this team does that we haven’t had for a few years is that if you can’t win don’t lose battling quality.

 

We were solid and rarely troubled, should’ve won the game against what people say is one of the stronger teams in the league. 
 

Slowly we are getting better.

[Jazzy_Jeff]

Overall, I’m happy with the performance yesterday. The changes that Marti made had us more solid defensively - still needs work at top end of the pitch.

 

All four that came in were class - need to keep their places going forward.

 

The final third is what concerns me the most. Ayew is a 10, I liked what I saw from Carranza so I would take Soumare out next week (who did ok btw) move JJ back and make that change.

 

Stephy needs taking out, he’s a shadow of the player from 2yrs ago. Lacks confidence going forward which is affecting his decision making and didn’t do enough defensively. Got to start Monga next week.

 

The only other change I would make is Kristensen for Thomas. Luke hasn’t played badly but offers little going forward. VK would offer more of a threat especially with a “9” in the box.

 

Thought Cov were ok - Rudoni is a player. Never felt overly threatened and if we had nicked a goal I think we would have comfortably seen it out. 
 

We are still a work in progress but I think we’re getting there. It will click soon. 

[Sky Blues]

Good morning all. Enjoyed the game yesterday. Thought we were the best side for about the first 30 minutes although you had a very good chance during this time. Then you took control of the game. Second half started exactly the same. We didn't get back into it until towards the end. Easily the best side we've played so far. I have Rushworth as MOTM. Didn't have many good shots to save but did everything without fault. We had a few decent chances but your GK was up to it when needed. You were a good side until it came to shooting. It was though you were shooting at our GK most of the time and not the goal. 

 

Very happy with the point. Could have won it near the end but we wouldn't have deserved the win. See you all January for the return.

[Cadno'r Cymoedd]

12 hours ago, Parafox said:

 

Some of the negative naysayers on this forum need to face facts. (Not you). We're never going to have a Maresca season in the Championship again. We will be ok without being completely dominant like we were 2 years ago. There's a reason Maresca is now manager of a PL side like Chelsea and why we won the Champ easily.

Some supporters need to move on. Even move on from the PL title and the FA cup, but so many can't, and they expect the success of those halcyon times to be repeated. Never gonna happen again. 

That said I think we have it in us to be a regular PL side if there was proper interest from KP. 

 

We lost 11 games that season and we had some moments late on where looked like possibly missing out to Ipswich and Leeds for automatic promotion, so I don't think it was easy. We nearly faltered. 

[Speedwell 🦊]

Start Jeremy monga instead of Mavs and carranza instead of ayew and I think it will be better.I still think we play a little bit too deep at times.