Points Required for Survival

[TrentFox]

Title says it all. Google suggests 50 is a likely number to survive with. That means 18 points from 14 games. I did a quick run through our fixture list and, in my head, the last game against Blackburn we will still need something. So might they! Without yet another rehash of hate from the haters, pointing out - for the millionth boring time how crap we are - how many do you think we finish with? Enough? 🥴

[Tommy G]

We will finish with somewhere in the 40's at a push, it's going to the wire ffs. 

[Iran]

About 50.

[BirminghamFox]

Depends whether we have a proven manager or stick with Kingy

[Stuntman_Mike]

Almost feels a pointless thread until we have something to back. 

 

I genuinely don't see us getting another win in this moment. 

[StanSP]

@Les-TA-Jon get your stats up, 

[Stevosevic]

Just hope Blackburn and West Brom continue to be crap and we can get a few wins. 

[jammie82uk]

27 minutes ago, TrentFox said:

Title says it all. Google suggests 50 is a likely number to survive with. That means 18 points from 14 games. I did a quick run through our fixture list and, in my head, the last game against Blackburn we will still need something. So might they! Without yet another rehash of hate from the haters, pointing out - for the millionth boring time how crap we are - how many do you think we finish with? Enough? 🥴

Since 04/05 Only 3 teams have been relegated having scored more then 50 points, Peterborough and Us went down by 1 point, Blackburn (GD -12) went down on goal difference after scoring the same points as Nottingham Forest (GD -10) 

 

•    Peterborough United: 22nd, 54 points (2012–13).
•    Leicester City: 22nd, 52 points (2007–08).
•    Blackburn Rovers: 22nd, 51 points (2016–17).

[Rubbersoul]

Stoke A
Norwich H

QPR H

Bristol City H 

Watford A

Preston H

Swansea H

Sheffield Wednesday A 

Portsmouth A

Blackburn A

We have plenty of games where you look at them and think we should be able to get something.
 

You just have to ignore the fact we are absolutely revolting, lost 4 out of 5, haven’t kept a clean sheet in 26 and no sign of a manager coming in.  

[Fox92]

10 minutes ago, Rubbersoul said:

Stoke A
Norwich H

QPR H

Bristol City H 

Watford A

Preston H

Swansea H

Sheffield Wednesday A 

Portsmouth A

Blackburn A

We have plenty of games where you look at them and think we should be able to get something.
 

You just have to ignore the fact we are absolutely revolting, lost 4 out of 5, haven’t kept a clean sheet in 26 and no sign of a manager coming in.  

You missed Middlesbrough away although that will be 0 points anyway.

 

So hard to predict because some teams are not consistent (Stoke, Bristol City, QPR...) but right now I think a point at Stoke is all we offer for this month. The only games I look at and believe we 100% can win is Sheffield Wednesday, perhaps Swansea too. Blackburn are beatable but if it comes down to the last game, winner takes all, I wouldn't pick us in a battle.

Edited 13 February by Fox92

[honeybradger]

knowing our luck Blackburn are about to go on a strong run of results and we will be left adrift at the end of the next 5 games

[Les-TA-Jon]

STATS DUMP

 

Points for finishing 21st in the Championship, based on the last 21 seasons:

• Low 41
• Average 48.2
• High 55

Based on PPG to date, I'd be surprised if more than 49 points is required to stay up this season. 

 

SEASON LONG PPG 

 

We can see that on season long PPG to date, there's only 1.4 points separating West Brom, Leicester and Blackburn. And Portsmouth's 3 games in hand continue to be an annoying wrinkle. 

 

RECENT FORM PPG AND EXTRAPOLATIONS

 

 

Looking at shorter term form doesn't make for good reading and of course Last 10 form gets closer to replicating the 14 game run we have remaining. Both have us in the relegation zone, but again, only 0.7 points separating West Brom, Leicester and Blackburn. (Portsmouth would be on 47.4 points if they lose their 3 games in hand). So could be 3-4 teams in the mix

 

Too close to call, especially with such much football to play. We've got to win 4-6 games. One hope would be Oxford and Blackburn continue to struggle. Away from the stats themselves, we've obviously got the 'eye test' of Leicester not having any grit and it feels like 3-4 years since we won a crutch match with something significant riding on it - so the prospect of needing a win at Blackburn Away on the final day is terrifying. 

 

For completeness sake here's the full run in for teams down the bottom and fixtures against each other highlighted

 

Edited 13 February by Les-TA-Jon

[Foxin_Mad]

We need to get over 50 points, that should be enough. Unless Oxford pick up quite a lot of wins they wont be anywhere near that, and that means probably it will be a lower amount to stay up. There is always some odd results in this division at the end of the season. 

[TonyN11]

Good to know we'll still have something to play for in the final matches 

[Stadt]

What's troubling is we've lost or drawn to most of the teams we have to play already, when we were in better form with less pressure to get a result. Blackburn should be the one place you would want to go needing a result but not with our lot.

 

 

I think we'll get 3 wins. 2 at home and win at Wednesday, then we're relying on draws which is an awful place to be in. Given we can't keep a clean sheet we're looking at needing 2 or 3 to win, which we are certainly capable of but the defensive balance is all wrong. We have no DMs and barely any CMs. Arribo, Skipp, James just aren't goo enough without the ball as a collective. We should have recalled Cartwright, he's at least combative and not even started half of Falkirk's games.

 

Additionally, what's also awful is we're relying players to get fit to have half a chance too. If Kristiansen and Souttar ever actually get on the pitch we're instantly better off in two positions.

 

 

Edited 13 February by Stadt

[South Shire Fox]

48 minutes ago, Rubbersoul said:

Stoke A
Norwich H

QPR H

Bristol City H 

Watford A

Preston H

Swansea H

Sheffield Wednesday A 

Portsmouth A

Blackburn A

We have plenty of games where you look at them and think we should be able to get something.
 

You just have to ignore the fact we are absolutely revolting, lost 4 out of 5, haven’t kept a clean sheet in 26 and no sign of a manager coming in.  

All harder fixtures then Charlton, Oxford etc which we lost

[Fox92]

31 minutes ago, honeybradger said:

knowing our luck Blackburn are about to go on a strong run of results and we will be left adrift at the end of the next 5 games

I don't think they'll get much this month (QPR/Preston/Bristol City/Derby) but what is worrying is in March they've got Portsmouth and Oxford back to back. Obviously they have a game in hand on us too.

[Les-TA-Jon]

11 minutes ago, Stadt said:

What's troubling is we've lost or drawn to most of the teams we have to play already, when we were in better form with less pressure to get a result. Blackburn should be the one place you would want to go needing a result but not with our lot.

 

 

I think we'll get 3 wins. 2 at home and win at Wednesday, then we're relying on draws which is an awful place to be in. Given we can't keep a clean sheet we're looking at needing 2 or 3 to win, which we are certainly capable of but the defensive balance is all wrong. We have no DMs and barely any CMs. Arribo, Skipp, James just aren't goo enough without the ball as a collective. We should have recalled Cartwright, he's at least combative and not even started half of Falkirk's games.

Results in return fixtures of remaining games:

 

18 points - exactly what we need to finish on 50...

 

But yeah agree with your concerns. Especially since 10 of those 18 points we gained in the reverse fixtures, appear very hard to replicate now. 

Edited 13 February by Les-TA-Jon

[Rubbersoul]

30 minutes ago, South Shire Fox said:

All harder fixtures then Charlton, Oxford etc which we lost

Was sort of looking at them if we actually had a new manager. 
 

But agree 

[Muzzy_no7]

I genuinely can’t see us getting past 43pts

[MonarchFox]

We need 6 wins and 2 draws then if you are saying 50 points, I can't see us getting that

[StanSP]

I've resigned myself to getting relegated at Blackburn on the final day, if not earlier because we have players that just don't have the mental or physical fight within them to pull themselves out of the shit. Too many passengers, too many mercenaries and has-beens, and too many players on wages they shouldn't be on. 

 

It doesn't bode for a successful outcome. Survival on the final day of the championship isn't, and should not be, classed as a success even. 

[Mickyblueeyes]

Not sure what it would be but I would so surprised if we do survive. They just don’t have it

[Pita]

How cares anymore interest in the club must be at all times low 

[Qwerty]

So far we’ve averaged 1.1875 points per game.  If that continues, we’ll get 16 points in the remaining 14 games, giving us a total of 48 points. 
Blackburn have averaged 1.03 points per game , so they would end up with 47 points. 
Oxford 40 points. 

On a different subject, I find it surprising that Portsmouth aren’t being penalised for having such a crap pitch that they’re 3 matches behind.  If they’d taken steps to fix it, it would have cost a fortune, and they’d have breached PSR, so they’d have been punished for that anyway!