Scottish Independence Poll

[ADK]

All 3 main parties are already committed to more devolution to Scotland if there's a 'No' vote, which itself could be the catalyst for more decentralisation of power in the rest of the UK - which I'd like, too. I was hearing the other day that there's a lot of support now for devolution in the North East (as the region closest to Scotland), whereas it voted heavily against a Regional Assembly in 2004.

 

Until such time as there's a political realignment or electoral reform, it's also very likely that there'd be a right-wing Tory-led government in what remains of the UK. What motivation would it have to decentralise power, unless people in Tory-voting areas started demanding it? I've not heard of any such shift in SE England, the suburbs, small towns or rural areas, which are the Tory heartland....

 

If it worked out for Scotland I think Wales and the North-East would see a strong independence movement form, essentially the poorer areas of the UK would probably feel better off as separate states than under Westminster rule.

[Webbo]

If it worked out for Scotland I think Wales and the North-East would see a strong independence movement form, essentially the poorer areas of the UK would probably feel better off as separate states than under Westminster rule.

Wales and the N. East don't have any oil.

[Finnegan]

Wales and the N. East don't have any oil.

Nor want to be independent states? The North East ffs? What national identity do they have? Jesus wept.

[ADK]

Probably more national identity than the UK has.

[RobHawk]

Living in Wales i can assure you that the vast majority of the country would not want to leave the UK.

Most Welsh people i know are extremely proud of being Welsh but understand that the country is stronger for being part of the UK.

You might get a few from Plaid spouting off about it, but they are a minority party at best and nothing would come of it!

[Vacamion]

Despite the narrowing of the polls the No side still leads.

Yes were always going to put on a late surge. Their momentum has been exaggerated by a piss poor performance by Darling 2nd time out.

Still think it's not going to happen.

As an aside, I hope this vote provokes English devolution - MPs from Scotland, Wales and Norn Iron have no place voting on England's education or health etc.

[Webbo]

There's going to be a shake up after the vote. The devo max means the Scots will have their own tax raising powers meaning they'll be more accountable for their decisions instead of blaming us all the while.

[Alf Bentley]

It's silly to say that independence will lead to eternal left-wing Scotland and right wing rest of UK. If govt is seen to fail then they'll be voted out and replaced by the alternative.

 

 

True enough. After all, Labour would have won a large majority in 1997 & 2001 without its Scottish seats - and would even have scraped home in 2005.

 

However, in Scotland, in the short-term at least the alternative to the SNP would be Labour. Obviously, the Scottish Tories might rebuild to a strong position there (which they had some decades back) or there might be some sort of political realignment.

But that would take a decade or two, I'd imagine.

 

In England/Wales, while it would still be possible for a non-Tory majority to be voted in, it would make it that much less likely. The political balance would shift rightwards - in the short-term, again. In the longer-term, God knows what will happen, as politics is becoming a lot less predictable than it was when you and I were younger, Webbo. Younger generations have less instinctive loyalty to a particular party and issues are shifting. UKIP and the Greens could easily be significant players within 10-20 years, I'd say - or there could be some sort of realignment.

 

If it worked out for Scotland I think Wales and the North-East would see a strong independence movement form, essentially the poorer areas of the UK would probably feel better off as separate states than under Westminster rule.

 

Although I'm sure there'll be pressure for more powers to be devolved to the Welsh Assembly, and maybe even to certain regions of England, I can't imagine there being enough support for us to see an independent Wales any time soon, still less the resurrection of the ancient kingdom of Northumbria!

 

Probably more national identity than the UK has.

 

Maybe, but states have to be viable political entities - and a state isn't necessarily a nation. The UK is a state of several nations, as is Spain and as was the USSR; even the USA effectively has to inculcate its citizens with a concept of "US nationality" based on an acquired identity not a historical one....even if most states are effectively nation states now...

[ADK]

A United States of Britain style set up would be ok. I do think we need a shake up of the Victorian style government we have at the moment.

[Guest MattP]

It's silly to say that independence will lead to eternal left-wing Scotland and right wing rest of UK. If govt is seen to fail then they'll be voted out and replaced by the alternative.

Whatever happens in Scotland the Tories/England will be blamed for the bad things and get no credit for the good things. After independence they won't have that excuse,although they'll probably still try it on.

Exactly, an eternal left wing Scotland would run out of money quicker than one with Rincewind in charge of it's finances. You'd see the growth of the Tories again and the SNP and Labour would have to stop just offering more and more lavish bribes to the country given they would be responsible for their budget fully.

The polls are closer but I still think the no vote will nick it unfortunately.

I'm still hoping the Tories are playing a smart game and George Osborne is ready to go and take a turd on a William Wallace statue at any point.

[Buce]

I'm still hoping the Tories are playing a smart game and George Osborne is ready to go and take a turd on a William Wallace statue at any point.

Why not, he shits on everyone else...

[Guest MattP]

Why not, he shits on everyone else...

Does he? If that's the case how come his approval rating is so high and the job he has done has single handedly taken the Tories back to neck and neck with Labour in the polls?

He's shat on the workshy, and it's about time someone did.

[Strokes]

Does he? If that's the case how come his approval rating is so high and the job he has done has single handedly taken the Tories back to neck and neck with Labour in the polls?

He's shat on the workshy, and it's about time someone did.

Its a shame he hasn't got a great leader ahead of him, Cameron does him and the Torys a disservice.

[Trav Le Bleu]

There is one argument from the Independenistas that makes me roll my eyes, which is "The government in Westminster is so far removed it doesn't understand or care what happens in Scotland."

 

Wise up Salmond and co. The government in Westminster is so far removed it doesn't understand or car what happens any further away than Watford and Basingstoke. By that argument most of England should seek independence from a Westminster based government!

[The Doctor]

There is one argument from the Independenistas that makes me roll my eyes, which is "The government in Westminster is so far removed it doesn't understand or care what happens in Scotland."

 

Wise up Salmond and co. The government in Westminster is so far removed it doesn't understand or car what happens any further away than Watford and Basingstoke. By that argument most of England should seek independence from a Westminster based government!

 

Well, the obvious difference there is that Scotland is a separate country in a union with England & Wales, while Yorkshire is just a county in England.

[lavrentis]

Well, the obvious difference there is that Scotland is a separate country in a union with England & Wales, while Yorkshire is just a county in England.

 

Yorkshire has more reason to be "independent" than Scotland.

[The Doctor]

Yorkshire has more reason to be "independent" than Scotland.

 

And those reasons are?

[Guest MattP]

I wonder if some of the Tory right are actively hoping that there's a 'Yes' vote? Cameron probably isn't as it wouldn't look good on his CV - and Scottish Labour/SNP MPs would still be elected to Westminster in 2015 (but only until 2017, I think?). But I bet there's a few on the Tory right licking their lips at the thought of a 'Yes' vote, Cameron getting the bullet and then a right-wing Tory majority government of England, Wales & N. Ireland after 2017.... 

 

Would UKIP have to change its name? Would the UK change its name? After all, UK stands for "United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland", and there'd no longer be a "Great Britain", unless you count just England & Wales. Could be the "United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland", I suppose....

 

I think the Tory leadership has played an absolute blinder here, if they stay they carry on as normal and if they vote 'Yes' the blame will clearly be put onto the 'better together' campaign that has been fronted by Alistair Darling and his cronies, I doubt Cameron is remotly bothered about the loss of Scotland on his CV, he has 50 things more important to worry about than this as his legacy.

 

I think all Tories should be hopeful of a yes vote, England is generally a right-wing Tory country and we have had to put up with numerous Labour governments in the past when we haven't voted for them, it's a complete win/win situation for us, if they go and fcuk up who cares, if they do go and become a successful nation then they will be in the EU anyway so anyone with any ambition can just jet up across the border and live there to try and benefit from it. I'm certain you will eventually also see a Tory surge up there again after years and years of Labour and the SNP offering more and more lavish bribes to the electorate ends up in disaster as they have to eventually pay for it. We are talking about a country here where over 50% of the population receives benefits in some way shape or form.

 

UKIP are already in the process of changing the name over the next few years to just the 'Independence Party' anyway There's a bit of inside info for you.

 

Its a shame he hasn't got a great leader ahead of him, Cameron does him and the Torys a disservice.

 

This.

[Buce]

UKIP are already in the process of changing the name over the next few years to just the 'Independence Party' anyway There's a bit of inside info for you..

What's the rationale behind this, Matt?

[Guest MattP]

What's the rationale behind this, Matt?

 

Trying to broaden the party I think, to get to the public on a wider range of issues than just immigration and Europe and making a huge play to support greater local independence for areas of the UK and deregulation.

 

Plus research tends to suggest people often associate political parties with UK, British, English etc in the name as being of a far-right nature, which is something that needs to be removed for more widespread elctoral success.

 

'The Independence Party' also sits very nicely on a ballot form for people who want to vote for 'none of the above'.

[leicsmac]

Still can't see the 'Yes' vote getting enough traction on polling day, purely for economic reasons more than anything else.

 

Purely from a personal perspective I'm strongly in favour of the union, but I would like more independence and power in the hands of local governments.

[Buce]

Trying to broaden the party I think, to get to the public on a wider range of issues than just immigration and Europe and making a huge play to support greater local independence for areas of the UK and deregulation.

Plus research tends to suggest people often associate political parties with UK, British, English etc in the name as being of a far-right nature, which is something that needs to be removed for more widespread elctoral success.

'The Independence Party' also sits very nicely on a ballot form for people who want to vote for 'none of the above'.

That sounds like a very astute move.

Thanks.

[Alf Bentley]

 

I think all Tories should be hopeful of a yes vote, England is generally a right-wing Tory country and we have had to put up with numerous Labour governments in the past when we haven't voted for them, it's a complete win/win situation for us, if they go and fcuk up who cares, if they do go and become a successful nation then they will be in the EU anyway so anyone with any ambition can just jet up across the border and live there to try and benefit from it. I'm certain you will eventually also see a Tory surge up there again after years and years of Labour and the SNP offering more and more lavish bribes to the electorate ends up in disaster as they have to eventually pay for it. We are talking about a country here where over 50% of the population receives benefits in some way shape or form.

 

UKIP are already in the process of changing the name over the next few years to just the 'Independence Party' anyway There's a bit of inside info for you.

 

 

In which years did the UK have Labour governments due to Scottish votes? I can't research it just now - have work to do - but obviously that didn't apply in 1997 or 2001, when England voted overwhelmingly for Labour (in terms of seats). Surprisingly, I believe Labour would also have still had a majority without the Scots in 2005 - they had a majority of about 40-50, I think, and less than an advantage of 40-50 in Scotland, I think.

 

So, we'd have to be talking about 1945 or the 60s/70s, and maybe not even then, as the Tories used to win lots of Scottish seats back then, didn't they?

 

Interesting news re. the "Independence Party". Sounds like a good move from the UKIP perspective. I wouldn't expect them to make a massive breakthrough in 2015, but in 2020 or whenever, who knows? Maybe. They might also implode or there might be a realignment, but party politics and allegiances are certainly in flux. I'm just hoping for a similar Green upsurge some time soon, but no sign of it just yet....

[Buce]

I'm just hoping for a similar Green upsurge some time soon...

Amen to that.

[Trav Le Bleu]

Well, the obvious difference there is that Scotland is a separate country in a union with England & Wales, while Yorkshire is just a county in England.

 

You should go into politics Al. You successfully avoid the point altogether and came round with something entirely different to support your own view that had no relevance what-so-ever, but to the casual observer appears to be an answer.