Scottish Independence Poll

[PAPA LAZAROU]

Wales and the N. East don't have any oil.

 

 

Neither does Scotland, they haven't voted for independence as yet . So it's still the Uk's oil.

[The Doctor]

You should go into politics Al. You successfully avoid the point altogether and came round with something entirely different to support your own view that had no relevance what-so-ever, but to the casual observer appears to be an answer.

 

Well no, because A) I don't really care about independence, the only reason I'd have for wanting it is to get Salmond to shut up - my own view is probably better off in the union, but if independence will shut him up then go for it & b) while westminster doesn't have much interest in the north, or the south west, the north isn't a separate country in a union - Scotland is.  It's like saying that Paris alone should declare independence from the EU - France could, it's part of a union, but Paris isn't, Paris is part of a country in a union.

[johnny the fox]

Does anybody really think that if no oil had been found this would be even on the agenda?, I don't like Salmond,I  think he is a con man, he has to plough this furrow to the bitter end, its his and his friends reason to exist ,  unfortunately since Thatcher, Westminster has given the jocks every reason to want out..personally I don't give a fook either way.

[lavrentis]

Think if I was Scottish I would vote Yes, if it meant leaving the European Union and controlling borders

[Webbo]

Think if I was Scottish I would vote Yes, if it meant leaving the European Union and controlling borders

I don't think voluntarily leaving the EU is on the agenda.

[purpleronnie]

I don't think voluntarily leaving the EU is on the agenda.

I very much doubt most scot's want to leave the EU anyway.

[Webbo]

I very much doubt most scot's want to leave the EU anyway.

Exactly, as soon as we stop subsidising them directly, they'll need us to do it through the EU instead.

[Guest ttfn]

Lots of talk today that it is "neck and neck".

 

I can't imagine that people who aren't absolutely 1000% sure they want to be independent from the UK are going to turn up and actually vote for independence.

No chance this is going to happen.

[Finnaldo]

Lots of talk today that it is "neck and neck".

I can't imagine that people who aren't absolutely 1000% sure they want to be independent from the UK are going to turn up and actually vote for independence.

No chance this is going to happen.

The Guardian said a poll held it at 51%-49% in favour of independence, although that poll was done by the 'Yes' camp so I'm not entirely sure.

[Finnaldo]

I very much doubt most scot's want to leave the EU anyway.

Salmond has mentioned negotiating it 'from within' the EU, although a European official apparently said they would negotiate outside the EU and that could take up to 5 years.

To be honest, I hope they vote 'No' just so we don't have a third world country on our border.

[Spiritwalker]

I know oil revenue is only part of the equation, but it doesn't seem fair that one of the reasons

the Scots want independence is to keep oil revenue to themselves. The Union was formed in

good faith hundreds of years before North Sea oil was discovered. How would the Scots have

reacted had oil been discovered off the coast of England and we decided to kick them out of

The Union so we keep it for ourselves.

[Webbo]

I would love it if the Shetlands and Orkneys decided they didn't want to be part of Scotland and keep all the oil in their area to themselves.

[ADK]

It's not purely about oil is it? Not convinced by the Yes polls myself, it smacks of when a betting company gets wind of something not happening and shortens the odds in a bid to lure people in. I think Yes are hoping to drum up some momentum but I think on the day the "don't knows" who actually vote will vote no.

 

It's not brilliant for the Union in any case, at least 40% of the country are probably going to say they don't want to be British. In the event of a yes, the same quantity being forced to lose the nationality they want. All a bit messy.

[Webbo]

If it wasn't for oil the SNP would have less members than Bentley's Roof.

[purpleronnie]

Makes me sad, vote NO webbo, don't leave us.

[Guest ttfn]

No vote is now 2/5. Surely that's just buying money, it's just not going to happen.

[GingerrrFox]

If it is a yes vote Salmond won't know what he's got himself into. Cameron and Miliband have both stated that if Scotland go independent that a border patrol will initially have to be set up until Scotland have negotiated there way into the EU. If the Scots agree to the Schengen Agreement then it could be absolute carnage with people trying to get themselves into England and Wales. Alex has declared that this "threat" from Westminster is scaremongering to prevent independence, but what he hasn't got into that thick skull of his is that if they get independence they have no say in the UK's (England, Wales and NI) foreign policy. 

 

It would all be an absolute mess initially, what happens to the British army? Do Scots in the Army get given their P45? NHS? Free Prescriptions and Free Universities? Give it 20 years and Scotland will be a ****ing mess.

[Jordan]

No doubt the trend shows Yes closing in on No, but it looks like that poll excludes undecided voters. I would need to see a lot more polling data before I were convinced the Yes side has the edge heading into Sept. 19.

As an outsider that is curious about this referendum, it seems to me that a big reason why the pro-independence side is gaining ground is due to the starkly contrasting messages each side presents. Despite Salmond's weaknesses as a politician, Yes Scotland presents a positive message to the Scottish people. The economic case they present for independence has a lot more legs than I had originally thought. Also, they push a meme about Scotland being a great country, and of their people being empowered to lead it in a way that can benefit all.

Meanwhile, I couldn't pick out a bigger bunch of condescending pricks than the folks that lead the pro-Union side. The "Better Together" campaign started out with every advantage in the world, yet their message has completely degenerated. The whole "No Thanks" thing has become a dreadfully negative campaign. Instead of extolling the virtues of the Union, they're just talking all this shit about how poor little Scotland can't do anything, and drumming up fear about what would happen if it gains independence. Even the whole "No Thanks" thing just sucks. It's clearly a spiteful tone kind of "no thanks," and hardly meant to be it's original, more polite meaning. What kind of people were in the focus group Better Together used to decide using this message was a good idea? Talking down to people is a losing tactic in any political campaign anywhere in the world.

I get the feeling that Yes Scotland also has a much better "ground game" than the pro-Union groups; it's almost as if the pro-Union campaigners don't think the grass roots part of campaigning is worth the trouble.

It's just the complete opposite on how campaigns should be run. The pro-Union side started with a huge advantage in opinion polling and funding, and had massive leverage in the discourse about independence. The "incumbent" needs to promote past success, stability, and project confidence that success will continue in the future. The challengers should be the underdogs, and Yes Scotland did that early on, attacking Westminster for being out of touch and unable to work for Scottish interests. Now, though, the tables seemed to have completely turned. If the Yes vote scrapes out a win, it will be a massive upset, and the pro-Union Scots will have a lot of fierce yet valid grievances about how their side somehow managed to campaign as if they were fighting from behind when they were leading. I still think No will win by about 6 points (unless a decent amount of new data comes out from now until the referendum that may change my mind), but I can see a few of the undecideds going with a Yes vote on the 19th just to say, "**** you."

[johnny the fox]

Cameron will look like a right cant if its yes..totally absent from the fight.. he will go down in history as the twat who lost the uk... coward of the county.

[Guest MattP]

Nearly there. Come on Scots get those yes votes out.

Bye bye Labour party The ball and chain around the neck of England could soon be gone.

[Buce]

If it wasn't for oil the SNP would have less members than Bentley's Roof.

Where did Bentley's Roof get their oil from?

[Papasmurf]

Very interested what the turnout will be for this.

[GingerrrFox]

Cameron will look like a right cant if its yes..totally absent from the fight.. he will go down in history as the twat who lost the uk... coward of the county.

It would be a blessing for us if the Scots fook off.

[Sir Fynwy]

It would be a blessing for us if the Scots fook off.

An ageing population with their main raw material stocks running down, challenging topography and poor climate won't be a major miss but I'd prefer the UK became a federal state with England, Wales, Scotland and NI all having their own political assemblies and London being farmed off like Washington DC is in the US.

[Finnegan]

This smacks of the Lib Dems in the last GE. I wouldn't get your hopes up, Matt.

Everyone getting swept up in the romance of the issue, the emotive debating, the clever campaign.

They still haven't answered most of the important, practical issues and they aren't looking likely to. Come the anonymity of the voting booth the No voters will come flying out of the woodwork.