DanTheMan Posted 29 January 2014 Posted 29 January 2014 If we don't win the league now, I would be pissed off. We are pretty much confirmed to finish in the playoffs now automatic promotion is the next step, I reckon that could be secured in the next 7 games. I wouldn't say that - we ourselves set the record low for a playoff place last season at 68pts, the average is 74pts, with the worst case being 76pts... so a few more wins needed yet to guarantee a playoff place minimum! Having said that, I think we are all thinking the aim should be for autos now, I would be annoyed if we mess up automatic promotion given our current form! Our form for the remainder of the season, in order to finish in the autos (based on the point totals I mentioned earlier) is: Best Case: 0.94pts/game Average: 1.29pts/game Worst Case: 1.61pts/game Currently, we're averaging 2.25pts/game, so as others have said we'd have to have a pretty calamitous drop in form! One game at a time, though!
Happy Fox Posted 29 January 2014 Posted 29 January 2014 I wouldn't say that - we ourselves set the record low for a playoff place last season at 68pts, the average is 74pts, with the worst case being 76pts... so a few more wins needed yet to guarantee a playoff place minimum! Having said that, I think we are all thinking the aim should be for autos now, I would be annoyed if we mess up automatic promotion given our current form! Our form going forward to finish in the autos (based on the point totals I mentioned earlier) is: Best Case: 0.94pts/game Average: 1.29pts/game Worst Case: 1.61pts/game Currently, we're averaging 2.25pts/game, so as others have said we'd have to have a pretty calamitous drop in form! One game at a time, though! If you treat 2 points a game, 23 point gap to 7th spot means roughly Ipswich and the teams below them have to win roughly 11 games on the spin that isn't going to happen, so we are guaranteed for the playoffs I would say.
dmayne7 Posted 29 January 2014 Posted 29 January 2014 Another 27 points would all but guarantee it. Definitely think we could pick up 2/3 of points of offer to take us around the 100 mark.
Bert Posted 2 February 2014 Posted 2 February 2014 Been saying 90 points for a month now and I still stand by that. 8 more wins does it.
Guest Bilo Posted 2 February 2014 Posted 2 February 2014 8 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats would mean 92 points and more or less certain promotion, so we can afford a comparative wobble between now and the end of the season and still win promotion.
Guest ttfn Posted 2 February 2014 Posted 2 February 2014 Was it not after 29 games last season when it all went tits up? Even if we have the same disastrous end to this season as last (15 points from 17 games) we'd get 81 points, which probably wouldn't be enough. If we had the same collapse in relative terms (given that we have 66 points this year rather than 53) we'd end up with 85 - that is to say that getting 15 points from 17 would be even more of a collapse this year given that the points we've put on the board show that we're a better side than 12 months ago. I think QPR have it well within themselves to catch us. I'm pretty much discounting them from this "analysis" because I think they'll get promoted regardless. Perhaps a reasonable top-end expectation for them would be 2.33 ppg, which would be an extension of their form in the last six games. Which would give them a total of 98 points. Realistically, I can't see Burnley getting more than 2 ppg from hereon out considering that they're averaging 1.4 ppg from their last 15 games. So even 2 points a game would be a huge upturn in form. So the absolute maximum I can see them getting is 89. Derby are a funny one, but again, any more than, say 2.2 ppg from now on would be pretty outrageous. Even since McClaren came in they're averaging "just" 2.05 ppg. So the maximum I could see them getting is also 89 points. Forest are on a great run, but even if they sustain their incredible form since they started their unbeaten run all the way until the end of the season, they will average another 2 ppg. Let's be generous and say they can get 2.2ppg from now on - so an upturn in form even from a position of 10 unbeaten - that would give them (you've guessed it!) 89 points. As for Reading I think they're out of it, at least in terms of catching us, but they have been a club which has got real momentum behind them towards the end of the season in their last couple of Championship seasons. Even if they repeat their heroics of the comparable time in 2011-12 they'd get 2.44 ppg which would equate to a total of 88 (!) points. Essentially it would take an absolutely freakish set of circumstances or a dramatic upturn in form from Burnley for us not to go up with 90 points. And if we can't get 24 points from the last 17 games of the season then we have no business being promoted. Our worst 17 game run of the season so far (Charlton away to QPR away) yielded 32 points.
XLM Posted 2 February 2014 Posted 2 February 2014 Got to bare in mind that the relegation scrap starts now as well. Teams at the lower end will be picking up unexpected points in their fight for survival.
Pegosteve Posted 2 February 2014 Posted 2 February 2014 I think 90 is the magic number. 24 points from 17 games is mid table performance. If we don't do it from here we don't deserve it.
Deucalion Posted 2 February 2014 Posted 2 February 2014 93 to be on the safe side. It will take a historic 3rd place points total for 93 to not be enough.
Guest kristianity77 Posted 2 February 2014 Posted 2 February 2014 Like others have said, I cant see us needing more than 90 to go up. 24 points from the last 17 you'd think is a case of how quickly we get them points not a case of if. Bookies are not often wrong, and the fact that some of them have us down as 1/20 for promotion, tells you all you need to know.
Steven Posted 2 February 2014 Posted 2 February 2014 93 to be on the safe side. It will take a historic 3rd place points total for 93 to not be enough. This.
Pegosteve Posted 2 February 2014 Posted 2 February 2014 Based on points average for last 6 games being carried on and taking us out of the equation then QPR - 98 Florist - 93 Reading - 84 Burnley - 83 Sheep - 75 I still think 90 will be enough though.
sdb Posted 2 February 2014 Posted 2 February 2014 Beat Watford and Forest and we'll be well on the way. Those 2 will really come at us and if we beat them I think the rest of the league will almost accept fate at that point. Lose them both and it's all back up for grabs.
Bluetintedspecs Posted 2 February 2014 Posted 2 February 2014 Been saying 90 points for a month now and I still stand by that. 8 more wins does it. Totally agree Bert, when I was talking about it with my son I stated I thought that 90 would be the magic numer to guarantee!
Fox92 Posted 2 February 2014 Posted 2 February 2014 ttfn, on 02 Feb 2014 - 12:12 PM, said: Was it not after 29 games last season when it all went tits up? Peterborough away, February 9th.
Mark 'expert' Lawrenson Posted 2 February 2014 Posted 2 February 2014 I will be happy if we can get to 80pts as soon as poss (maybe in the next 6 or 7 games) then it should be a case of picking up wins here and there over the last 10 games.
cjslcfc Posted 2 February 2014 Posted 2 February 2014 Peterborough away, February 9th. To be fair we weren't 10 points clear of second. We were in fact 10 points off Cardiff and were in 2nd before the Peterborough game last season.
Paulmot Posted 2 February 2014 Posted 2 February 2014 We still have to play Florist, Burnley and QPR. I think if we win these games we will need 89 for promotion. 87 points is the highest ever 3rd place total., Need to beat Watford on Saturday to keep the heat on. That would mean we would have the best home and away records in the league. A lot of the top 6 still have games against each other. As a side note 1/3rd of the league is made up of teams starting with B if this has been mentioned before i apologise.
Father Ted Posted 2 February 2014 Posted 2 February 2014 8 more wins... 7 more wins and 3 draws... 6 more wins and 6 draws... 90 points should do it. I can see us winning 6 or 7 of our remaining 9 home games at least. We've dispatched of the likes of Watford, Yeovil, Charlton, Blackpool, Sheff Weds, Doncaster with ease most of this season.
MGLCFC Posted 8 February 2014 Posted 8 February 2014 16 games to go - think we'll get there with quite a bit to spare. Not loosing today was like a win and keeping that winning record going was adding extra pressure. We can now go on another winning run now - win our next 5 games and we'll virtually be there. 10 games ago, anyone offering you 28 points, you'd have snapped their hands off.
Happy Fox Posted 9 February 2014 Posted 9 February 2014 6 wins should be enough for automatic promotion.
weller54 Posted 9 February 2014 Posted 9 February 2014 Foxes 92, QPR 90, Burnley 84, Forest 80, Derby 79, Ipswich 74....
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