Can we stay up?

[Fox92]

Just can't afford to lose to the teams around us. We're in a good position regarding the fact that we've still got teams around us to play (Burnley, Sunderland, QPR) and we can directly influence those teams. 

[Manwell Pablo]

We can.

 

Whether or not we will is a completley different question, I'm still of the opinion that we will end up fcking it up but we certainly have a chance, did not see either  the West Ham or West Brom result coming and they have at the very least made the next to months worth taking a keen interest in instead of sitting their watching football waiting to be relegated.

[Finn Claw II]

The Swansea game is massive for putting a lot of pressure on those around us.

The Burnley, QPR and Sunderland games are massive as they are against our relegation rivals.

The Newcastle game is massive because it is very winnable.

The Chelsea game is massive because any points are a bonus.

I'm not quite sure why the Southampton game is massive but it will be...

In short a lot of big games coming up!

[fuchsntf]

It is not down to any individual game or games from the rest fixtures.

Football is what it is....

Draw against Swansea, then some will say we need points, from Soton + Chelsea.

All permatations are possible, also for all our fellow strugglers.

Newcastle and how they fair against a couple our fellow strugglers.

Plus, plus, plus, etc.

For me if we can afford, to lose the last game against QPR...that would be nice.!

Knowing city we beat Soton and Chelsea, go down, by drawing against Burnley and

Sunderland. We get 34-35pts but Hull, WBA, Sunderland nick 2 good results, and to make it worse

QPR without Harry do come back to haunt us.

Oh God I hate nightmares..!!!

[fuchsntf]

We can.

 

Whether or not we will is a completley different question, I'm still of the opinion that we will end up fcking it up but we certainly have a chance, did not see either  the West Ham or West Brom result coming and they have at the very least made the next to months worth taking a keen interest in instead of sitting their watching football waiting to be relegated.

There you have it Pablo !!

Its waiting for the inevitable that hurts.

If we could at least go down, fighting keeping the suspense right up to the last game.....or

better still win 4-5 games, So we can do all our complaining and moaning in the Premier league.

Sort of gives our whining and yapping some class higher up, dunnit.

[Guest]

We just need to keep attacking.

 

Other teams are going to score goals - we have to score more. Never sit back on a score.

[Trav Le Bleu]

Imagine if it comes down to the last match with a win for either us or QPR ensuring safety for either. The ground will be rocking!

[Guest]

Imagine if it comes down to the last match with a win for either us or QPR ensuring safety for either. The ground will be rocking!

 

But it'd be even nicer if we're already assured promotion and they aren't.

[Trav Le Bleu]

But it'd be even nicer if we're already assured promotion and they aren't.

 

I'd prefer to beat them 5-0 and send them down personally.

[Dan LCFC]

I can actually see it being QPR, Hull & Sunderland. I've got a feeling we're going to send two teams down imagine the irony of that.

[ronnup]

I couldn't agree more, the Sunderland match is massive.

If we lose then they have a seven point gap on us as things stand and it's highly likely they will finish above us.

It's looking like it will be three from the current bottom five and a if Sunderland finish above us then we have no room for error and are vulnerable to one of the other side having a miraculous end of season run like Sunderland did last season.

A loss to Burnley would put them four points clear with us still having a game in hand so it's not ideal but not defining either.

One things for sure is that Burnley and Sunderland will look at their fixture list and see their home against us as their most important fixture left and a "must win" game for them.

Key point at the end there. They'll be going at us like mad men and that could play into our hands, we are ace on the break and rapid

[sylofox]

Bob the Builder says.

 

 

"Yes we Can"

[jonathan_ross]

Given the wun of fixtures we have fwom now till the end of the season to avoid safety I think we'd be simply fwowing it away but a loss on Saturday and a win for Sunderland puts us back to square one again!

[Ollie93]

Given the wun of fixtures we have fwom now till the end of the season to avoid safety I think we'd be simply fwowing it away but a loss on Saturday and a win for Sunderland puts us back to square one again!

       

[Monsell1976]

Of course we can stay up, but we have yet to see if we have the ability or bottle to do so.

Sunderland and hull are struggling, as are qpr and burnley, but all have been above us most of the season, and I'm sure will get unexpected results.

So it's not rocket science, we have got to be at the top of our game for the rest of the season, and win more than 3 teams

[Guest]

Bob the Builder says.

 

 

"Yes we Can"

 

[Babylon]

I look at those fixtures and always come to it being Hull, Sunderland and QPR going down.

[weller54]

If we beat Swansea then I think we're 60/40 in favour of staying up... MASSIVE GAME!

[Guest]

If we beat Swansea then I think we're 60/40 in favour of staying up... MASSIVE GAME!

 

I'll be happy with a point, ecstatic with 3. 

[davieG]

The final countdown: Who will stay up? A look at the run-ins for the eight BPL teams seeking to avoid relegation

•  

• 

  Newcastle's Moussa Sissoko must serve a ban for his red card against Liverpool

 

 

With only four points separating the bottom four sides of the division and six matches of the season remaining, the Barclays Premier League survival race is taking on a life of its own. Just two weeks ago nine points separated Hull City and Leicester City, at the foot of the table, but now that gap is only three points.

Indeed recent results have been such that the bottom three clubs all harbour realistic hopes of avoiding relegation, while from Newcastle United, in 13th place, down there are fully eight clubs who could still find themselves slipping into the Championship come the end of the season.

In a relegation battle that looks very set to go down to the wire, there is every possibility that some of the clubs will be involved in a final-day showdown.

Only twice before has this ever happened, with Wigan Athletic condemning Sheffield United in the 2006/07 season and Blackburn Rovers and Wolverhampton Wanderers going mano a mano on 2010/11's 'Survival Sunday'.

Here we look at the run-ins of the chief protagonists and the pros and cons of their bids to avoid second-tier status next term.

13. Newcastle United

P32; GF33; GA51; GD-18; Pts35

Reasons to be cheerful
Simply put, Newcastle have plenty of points on the board, are nine clear of third-bottom Queens Park Rangers with a match in hand and one more win from their remaining six matches would make survival a virtual certainty. Interim manager John Carver was also buoyed by the nature of his side's performance in defeat to Liverpool on Monday, which suggests he feels a victory lies just around the corner.

Reasons to be fearful
But where is that win going to come from? Carver's men have won only twice since the turn of the year and the 2-0 defeat at Anfield marked a fifth consecutive reverse. Their previous two victories came against teams below them in the table - Hull City and Aston Villa - and they might have to repeat this trick in May encounters with Leicester City, West Bromwich Albion and QPR.

Run-in
19 Apr: Spurs (H); 25 Apr: Swansea (H); 2 May: Leicester (A); 9 May: WBA (H), 16 May: QPR (A); 24 May: West Ham (A)

•  
•  

• 

  When it comes to avoiding relegation scraps, Tony Pulis has a strong track record

• 

  Since Tim Sherwood took over at Villa, Christian Benteke has scored the most BPL goals

 

 

14. West Bromwich Albion

P32; GF30; GA46; GD-16; Pts33

Reasons to be cheerful

Tony Pulis. The West Brom head coach has made a habit of steering clear of the messy business of relegation scraps. He led Stoke City to four consecutive mid-table finishes spanning 2009/10 to 2012/13, before masterminding Crystal Palace's incredible escape last term. It all suggests that Albion have the right man in their corner.

Reasons to be fearful

The Baggies have lost their last three, conceding 10 goals in the process, with the latter two of those damaging defeats coming against QPR and Leicester - both of whom sit in the drop zone.

"I made a point before the QPR game that we weren't safe and we needed a few more points," Pulis said after Leicester completed a thrilling late turnaround by winning 3-2 at the weekend. "We've got to get back to basics and defend properly."

Pulis' players would do well to heed this warning, particularly in light of their daunting run-in.

Run-in
18 Apr: C Palace (A); 25 Apr: Liverpool (H); 2 May: Man Utd (A); 9 May: Newcastle (A); 18 May: Chelsea (H); 24 May: Arsenal (A)

15. Aston Villa

P33; GF24; GA45; GD-21; Pts32

Reasons to be cheerful

Tim Sherwood's appointment as manager in February has clearly galvanised Aston Villa, who boast the Barclays Premier League's hottest striker on current form. Christian Benteke's winner against Sherwood's former club Tottenham Hotspur on Saturday was his eighth goal in the past six matches and the Belgium international appears primed to fire the Birmingham club to safety.

Reasons to be fearful

Villa's position six points above the relegation zone is slightly inflated by the fact they have played a match more than most of the teams around them. Leicester have two matches in hand and the table could have a very different complexion when they return to Barclays Premier League action following their FA Cup semi-final against Liverpool this weekend.

Run-in
25 Apr: Man City (A); 2 May: Everton (H); 9 May: West Ham (H); 16 May: Southampton (A); 24 May: Burnley (H)

•  
•  

• 

  Sunderland could do with more goals like Jermain Defoe's if they are to escape relegation

• 

  Hull need more performances like this one against Chelsea if they are to stay up

 

 

16. Sunderland

P32; GF25; GA48; GD-23; Pts29

Reasons to be cheerful

Dick Advocaat's second match in charge heralded a fifth consecutive Wear-Tyne derby victory over Newcastle at a time when three points were desperately needed. Jermain Defoe smashed home a brilliant winner before a raucous Stadium of Light crowd and both the striker and Sunderland's fans can be huge assets over the coming weeks.

Reasons to be fearful

Sunderland's form either side of retaining local bragging rights is poor, most worryingly at home. Aston Villa thumped them 4-0 on their own patch to bring about Gus Poyet's demise, while Crystal Palace left the Stadium of Light with a similarly emphatic 4-1 win on Saturday. There is a sense that this form must be turned around by the time Leicester visit the north-east in the Black Cats' final home fixture. They close the season with daunting trips to Arsenal and Chelsea.

Run-in
25 Apr: Stoke (A); 2 May: Southampton (H); 9 May: Everton (A); 16 May: Leicester (H); 20 May: Arsenal (A); 24 May: Chelsea (A)

17. Hull City

P32; GF29; GA45; GD-16; Pts28

Reasons to be cheerful

Hull's stirring display in last month's 3-2 defeat by Chelsea showed that Steve Bruce's players have the talent to beat the drop. They will need to repeat that intensity against Liverpool and then Manchester United on the final day of the season; matches in a run of four of their final five fixtures coming at the KC Stadium.

Reasons to be fearful

The Chelsea loss was the first of three defeats on the bounce and Hull are winless in their past six outings. Burnley are the only fellow strugglers they have to face in their remaining six matches, with a trip to in-form Crystal Palace coming next. Bruce desperately needs a spark.

Run-in
25 Apr: C Palace (A); 28 Apr: Liverpool (H); 4 May: Arsenal (H); 9 May: Burnley (H); 16 May: Spurs (A); 24 May: Man Utd (H)

 

 

•  
•  

• 

  Improved displays and the form of Charlie Austin is cause for optimism for QPR fans

• 

  George Boyd's winner against Man City last month is Burnley's only goal in six outings

 

 

18. Queens Park Rangers

P33; GF38; GA59; GD-21; Pts26

Reasons to be cheerful

Queens Park Rangers have arguably produced their best three displays under Chris Ramsey in the past three matches, apparently hitting form at the perfect time. A resounding 4-1 win at West Brom was followed by a remarkable 3-3 draw at Aston Villa before Chelsea scraped a late 1-0 victory at Loftus Road. If they can maintain those performance levels, they have a chance.

Reasons to be fearful

The other side of that coin is that the Chelsea loss has the potential to prove deeply demoralising, leaving Ramsey with a considerable job to rally his troops. Having completed 33 matches, QPR have played once more than everyone around them, with the exception of Villa, and twice more than Leicester. They will look on powerlessly this weekend and hope their position does not take a further turn for the worst.

Run-in
25 Apr: West Ham (H); 2 May: Liverpool (A); 10 May: Man City (A); 16 May: Newcastle (H); 24 May: Leicester (A)

19. Burnley

P32; GF26; GA50; GD-24; Pts26

Reasons to be cheerful

Sean Dyche and his team have won admirers across the country this season with their all-action, committed and passionate displays. Four of their 26 points have come against reigning champions Manchester City while Chelsea were held at Stamford Bridge in February. Arsenal were also made to work for a 1-0 triumph at Turf Moor last Saturday. Regularly pushing the best the Barclays Premier League has to offer should give Burnley confidence for the run-in.

Reasons to be fearful

Goals, or more accurately, a worrying lack of them. George Boyd's winner against Man City last month stands as the only time Burnley have found the net in their past six outings. Danny Ings is without a goal since opening the scoring against Manchester United eight matches ago and, with encounters against three of the bottom six in their run-in, Dyche badly needs his leading marksman to rediscover the Midas touch.

Run-in
18 Apr: Everton (A); 25 Apr: Leicester (H); 2 May: West Ham (A); 9 May: Hull (A); 16 May: Stoke (H); 24 May: Aston Villa (A)

20. Leicester City

P31 GF32 GA51 GD-19 Pts25

Reasons to be cheerful

From a seemingly hopeless situation, Leicester have won their past two matches against West Ham United and West Brom to spark hopes of a great escape. Although still last, Nigel Pearson's men are now firmly back among the pack with a match in hand - and two on Aston Villa and QPR - as they lie three points from safety. They head to Burnley before the month is out and everything could be on the line when they host QPR on the final day.

Reasons to be fearful

The main fear is that Leicester have left their charge too late. Bleak mid-season form left Pearson's team with an awful lot to do and, usually, the team finding themselves bottom of the pile midway through April should not hold out too much hope of remaining in the Barclays Premier League.

Run-in
18 Apr: Swansea (H); 25 Apr: Burnley (A); 29 Apr: Chelsea (H); 2 May: Newcastle (H); 9 May: Southampton (H); 16 May: Sunderland (A); 24 May: QPR (H)

[Nod.E]

Hull and Sunderland are gone for me. 

Sunderland:                          Hull:

(A) Stoke                               (A) Palace
(H) Southampton                  (H) Liverpool
(A) Everton                           (H) Arsenal
(H) Leicester                         (H) Burnley
(A) Arsenal                            (A) Spurs
(A) Chelsea                           (H) United


I can only really see Sunderland taking anything from Stoke out of their remaining fixtures. Everton are resurgent. Southampton at their place are a tough nut to crack. We should do them, and Arsenal and Chelsea away speaks for itself. 3 points max for them as long as we do our part.

As for Hull, I wouldn't back them to take anything there. Maybe a point at Burnley!

Either way, there's little chance either Hull or Sunderland will end on anything more than 32 points. Hull will end on 30 and finish the season bottom IMO.

That leaves a mini 3-team league table between QPR, Burnley and us. The bottom team goes down, the top 2 stay up.


QPR:                                     Burnley:

(H) West Ham                       (A) Everton
(A) Liverpool                         (H) Leicester
(A) City                                 (A) West Ham
(H) Newcastle                       (A) Hull
(A) Leicester                         (H) Stoke
                                              (A) Villa


QPR - Take the game against us out of the equation and realistically they will probably beat West Ham and Newcastle at home. Very surprised if they get anything from City and Liverpool as they're so poor away from home. 6 points - 32 points

Burnley - A decent run in but they have only won a single game away from home all season. Think they'll probably get 6 or 7 points (again, ignoring the game against us.) 32/33 points


So, back to us. What all of this means is that our safety is in our hands. I believe if we beat QPR, Burnley and Sunderland, we will stay up even if we lose to Swansea, Newcastle, Chelsea and Southampton.

9 points would take us to 34 points, finishing the season in 16th. (and that's with losing to Newcastle, which I don't think will happen.)

I think it goes without saying that all of the games against the teams around us are must-not-lose games. If we were to draw to all 3 teams, the new goal becomes 33 points, (remembering that we have better goal difference.) That means 5 points from Swansea, Newcastle, Southampton and Chelsea. I can see us beating Newcastle, so we would just need to find two draws.

 

 

Basically if we win all 3 crunch games we will be safe.
If we draw all 3 we need to find 5 more points.
If we win just one of them and draw 2, I think we will stay because we'll beat Newcastle.

I've done a predictor based on:

Swansea (DRAW)
Burnley (DRAW)
Chelsea (LOSS)
Newcastle (WIN)
Southampton (LOSS)
Sunderland (DRAW)
QPR (WIN)


With one game to go that leaves us:

16 SUN -27 33
17 QPR -24 32
18 BUR -24 32
19 LEI -20 31
20 HUL -24 29

You'd think Sunderland and Hull will lose to Chelsea and United.

Burnley play Villa away. If Burnley drew there, as I've predicted, we would need to beat QPR to send them down instead of us. If they lose, a draw will send Burnley down on GD!

16 LEI -19 34
17 BUR -24 33
18 SUN -28 33
19 QPR -25 32
20 HUL -26 29

Alternatively, if Burnley lost and we drew to QPR, Sunderland would stay up and we'd send QPR and Burnley down!

Fasten your seatbelts, lads. It's gonna be a bumpy ride.

[nnfox]

It's all still too complicated.  I have been through all the fixtures a few times now and there are way too many variables yet to relax or be too fearful.  I would say though, in one nightmare situation I had us going into the QPR game needing to win AND needing Villa to do us a favour and beat Burnley.  God I felt sick at the thought.

[Gerard]

I can't right Hull and Sunderland off so easily. They both have points on the board and these fixtures which will probably determine their fates:

 

Hull vs Burnley

Sunderland vs Leicester

 

If they win those fixtures they probably just need to nick a couple of points elsewhere to be safe. Both those games are massive and if either have a home defeat that will probably seal their fate.

[MC Prussian]

What are the odds of us winning all remaining games this season?

[Foxes1]

I believe