Brexit Discussion Thread.

[fuchsntf]

On Monday, June 05, 2017 at 21:47, SMX11 said:

Pretty sure all special interest groups will moan like hell if you try and take away subsidies, but New Zealand's experience tells me that the large majority will be fine assuming they are meeting the needs of consumers. It is up to the farmers to adjust what they do to be globally competitive and they will succeed. 

Subsidising farmers, is the nature of the beast, world wide.....Globally competitiveness Doesnt  lie in their individual hands...Society needs them and unlike other businesses couldnt afford to see the Various  farmers life Die. Like doctors and nurses...

Hotels, Restaurants....fk em. Not farmers..

[Strokes]

14 hours ago, toddybad said:

Yet the ever more ridiculous mrs may keeps telling the right wing of her party that no deal is better than a bad deal. 

Because it is  

[Innovindil]

12 minutes ago, Strokes said:

Because it is  

Shhhhh. Tell everyone we'll stay in the eu if the deal we're offered is bad.  

 

Best negotiation tactics eu. Sure to play the reverse psychology card and make them offer us a great deal! 

 

Maybe not... 

[Steven]

Sobering graph for all the Brexit fan boys and girls.

 

[Countryfox]

1 minute ago, Steven said:

Sobering graph for all the Brexit fan boys and girls.

 

 

Too small to read ...    but it looks pretty.   

[Steven]

Just now, Countryfox said:

 

Too small to read ...    but it looks pretty.   

Get some glasses.  Updated with a bigger version.

[Webbo]

3 minutes ago, Steven said:

Sobering graph for all the Brexit fan boys and girls.

 

Have you got a graph from last year?

[Countryfox]

1 minute ago, Steven said:

Get some glasses.  Updated with a bigger version.

 

Ta ...    looks even prettier now.    

[Steven]

1 minute ago, Webbo said:

Have you got a graph from last year?

Nobody had voted for Brexit in the corresponding period last year. Now where is my £350 million a week for the NHS?

[Webbo]

Just now, Steven said:

Nobody had voted for Brexit in the corresponding period last year. Now where is my £350 million a week for the NHS?

We haven't left yet, remember.

[Steven]

Just now, Webbo said:

We haven't left yet, remember.

... but the impact is being felt. 

[Webbo]

Quote

 

The International Monetary Fund has revised up its UK growth forecast for the second time in three months after admitting that the performance of the economy since the Brexit vote last year had been stronger than expected.

In its half-yearly World Economic Outlook, the IMF said it now envisaged the British economy expanding by 2% in 2017 – making it the second fastest-growing advanced economy after the US..

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/18/imf-ratchets-up-uk-economic-growth-forecast-to-2

[theessexfox]

How can we have the lowest growth in the EU and be the second-fastest growing economy after the US, which statistics are actually reflective of the situation? 

[Webbo]

1 minute ago, theessexfox said:

How can we have the lowest growth in the EU and be the second-fastest growing economy after the US, which statistics are actually reflective of the situation? 

Steven's figures are for the first quarter of the year, ignoring the last 3 quarters of last year. It's selective use of statistics.

[Steven]

2 minutes ago, Webbo said:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/18/imf-ratchets-up-uk-economic-growth-forecast-to-2

I don't understand. My memory is that many Brexiteers were questioning the voracity of the IMF during the referendum campaign and yet are using the same organisation to justify the Brexit vote after the event.  

 

Maybe the IMF are always wrong?

[Steven]

2 minutes ago, theessexfox said:

How can we have the lowest growth in the EU and be the second-fastest growing economy after the US, which statistics are actually reflective of the situation? 

For the record we have the lowest growth among the G7 countries.

[Alf Bentley]

8 minutes ago, theessexfox said:

How can we have the lowest growth in the EU and be the second-fastest growing economy after the US, which statistics are actually reflective of the situation? 

 

@Steven's figure is an actual figure for the first quarter of 2017

@Webbo's figure is an IMF forecast for the whole of the year 2017.

 

This is arguably the most important bit of Webbo's article:

"“The 0.9 percentage point upward revision to the 2017 forecast and the 0.2 percentage point downward revision to the 2018 forecast reflect the stronger-than-expected performance of the UK economy since the June Brexit vote, which points to a more gradual materialisation than previously anticipated of the negative effects of the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union,” the IMF said.

 

In other words, UK growth has surprised the IMF with its resilience since the referendum. They still expect a downturn, but now expect it be a slower process than before.

Steven's figure, based on actual data and not a forecast (though data that might be adjusted) may suggest that the IMF is already being proved wrong - or it may be a blip and growth may be higher next quarter.

Either way, you need at least a couple of quarters to identify a trend.....the next set of quarterly data will be interesting. 

[Steven]

1 minute ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

@Steven's figure is an actual figure for the first quarter of 2017

@Webbo's figure is an IMF forecast for the whole of the year 2017.

 

This is arguably the most important bit of Webbo's article:

"“The 0.9 percentage point upward revision to the 2017 forecast and the 0.2 percentage point downward revision to the 2018 forecast reflect the stronger-than-expected performance of the UK economy since the June Brexit vote, which points to a more gradual materialisation than previously anticipated of the negative effects of the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union,” the IMF said.

 

In other words, UK growth has surprised the IMF with its resilience since the referendum. They still expect a downturn, but now expect it be a slower process than before.

Steven's figure, based on actual data and not a forecast (though data that might be adjusted) may suggest that the IMF is already being proved wrong - or it may be a blip and growth may be higher next quarter.

Either way, you need at least a couple of quarters to identify a trend.....the next set of quarterly data will be interesting. 

Conveniently after the next election. 

[theessexfox]

@Webbo @Alf Bentley

 

Thank you - I guess there's only so much you can read into quarterly figures and predictions - the impacts will become much clearer over 2-3 years I'd imagine.

[Webbo]

1 minute ago, theessexfox said:

@Webbo @Alf Bentley

 

Thank you - I guess there's only so much you can read into quarterly figures and predictions - the impacts will become much clearer over 2-3 years I'd imagine.

It'll probably be at least 10 years before anyone can say definitively and then people will still disagree.

[Alf Bentley]

19 minutes ago, Steven said:

Conveniently after the next election. 

 

True but, to be fair, Labour barely mentioned Brexit and its potential economic impact during the election. Presumably they didn't want to draw attention to the issue as a potential vote-loser.

 

The debate about Brexit (biggest issue for decades) was pathetic. The Tories just used it to support their claim to "strong and stable leadership" without saying much else. Lib Dems and Greens called for a second referendum (a stupid policy at this point IMHO as most people just want the Brexit process to proceed - and will then doubtless react depending on what, if anything, is negotiated). Labour announced a good Brexit policy....then chose not to mention it again for electoral reasons.

 

Pathetic, irresponsible and dangerous on all sides......though possibly inevitable. Time to await events, impact - and public reaction to them now. 

 

 

15 minutes ago, theessexfox said:

@Webbo @Alf Bentley

 

Thank you - I guess there's only so much you can read into quarterly figures and predictions - the impacts will become much clearer over 2-3 years I'd imagine.

 

The short to medium-term impacts will start becoming clearer much quicker than that, I reckon - probably within months, depending on how well or badly the negotiations are going.

 

As Webbo says, the argument as to whether it is a good idea in the long-term won't be resolved for decades, though.

The saner Brexit supporters accept that the UK will probably suffer significant economic and social disruption for the next 2-5 years - might be moderate and containable, might be utterly disastrous.

However, they can still claim that the UK will be in a stronger position in the long-term when all the short-term disruption is dealt with, we have a new global role, multiple trade deals with US/China/India, better competitiveness etc.

I don't believe they're right about that, but it won't be proven either way for at least 10-20 years.....by which time I'll be dead or decrepit! 

[LiberalFox]

Put this in the election thread but it's more of a Brexit thing:

 

Should the government agree to negotiate on a cross-party basis on what Britain's preferred strategy on Brexit should be?

 

Ken Clarke mentioned it on the election coverage. As he said, there are divides within the main parties on Brexit so it is less of a party political issue.

 

Theresa May asked for a mandate to carry out her vision of Brexit but didn't get it. 

 

We know the DUP want a softer Brexit, at least where N.I. is concerned, but should a party that represents <1% of voters get such a big say?

 

There are divisions within the Conservatives on the best approach to Brexit.

 

What happens if the Tories remove May mid negotiation? 

 

There isn't a crystal clear picture what voters want, but it's reasonable to say results suggest there isn't huge support from a referendum re-run, nor is the idea of a "Hard" Brexit particularly popular.

[Webbo]

Basically the remainers have won. We'll either get pretend brexit or no Brexit at all.

[Bobby Hundreds]

Just now, Webbo said:

Basically the remainers have won. We'll either get pretend brexit or no Brexit at all.

 

[Carl the Llama]

1 hour ago, Webbo said:

Basically the remainers have won. We'll either get pretend brexit or no Brexit at all.

G'won prexit.