Brexit Discussion Thread.

[lifted*fox]

1 hour ago, Webbo said:

Basically the remainers have won. 

 

[Thracian]

3 hours ago, Webbo said:

Basically the remainers have won. We'll either get pretend brexit or no Brexit at all.

The way I've been seeing it going for a while. 

[The Doctor]

4 hours ago, Carl the Llama said:

G'won prexit.

So that's what he's been up to since he went missing on his way here

[Spiritwalker]

5 hours ago, Webbo said:

Basically the remainers have won. We'll either get pretend brexit or no Brexit at all.

One of the many miscalculations of this Tory government was to go into 

this election with a promise of hard Brexit. Just do the maths, 48% didn't

want to leave at all, of the 52% that voted to leave many would have wanted

a soft Brexit.

We may never know how many people want a hard Brexit but my best guess

is about 25%, which means they were alienating 75% of the electorate.

[Spudulike]

27 minutes ago, Spiritwalker said:

One of the many miscalculations of this Tory government was to go into 

this election with a promise of hard Brexit. Just do the maths, 48% didn't

want to leave at all, of the 52% that voted to leave many would have wanted

a soft Brexit.

We may never know how many people want a hard Brexit but my best guess

is about 25%, which means they were alienating 75% of the electorate.

... and over 80% of the electorate voted for leave parties. Who'd have thought it.

[Spiritwalker]

18 minutes ago, Spudulike said:

... and over 80% of the electorate voted for leave parties. Who'd have thought it.

From memory the only party that formally supported Brexit was UKIP, maybe the DUP.

1.8% + 0.9% = not 80%.

[Webbo]

Just now, Spiritwalker said:

From memory the only party that formally supported Brexit was UKIP, maybe the DUP.

1.8% + 0.9% = not 80%.

Not at this election.

[Spudulike]

1 minute ago, Spiritwalker said:

From memory the only party that formally supported Brexit was UKIP, maybe the DUP.

1.8% + 0.9% = not 80%.

Check out the manifesto's.

[Spiritwalker]

1 minute ago, Webbo said:

Not at this election.

At this election most of the main parties have fallen in behind the line of

" we will carry out the will of the British people", none of the main parties were

in favour of Brexit at the referemdum.

[Alf Bentley]

Just now, Webbo said:

Not at this election.

 

For anyone who's interested, here's the excellent Soft Brexit policy from Labour's election manifesto: 

http://www.labour.org.uk/page/-/Images/manifesto-2017/Labour Manifesto 2017.pdf (page 24 onwards)

 

A very different policy from the Hard Brexit policy that the Tories have been proposing (rhetorically, at least - God knows what they're planning in reality).

 

I'm not suggesting that Brexit policy was a major issue at the election, mind.

Tories and Labour alike avoided the Brexit issue and other issues dominated.

Also, most voters just see Brexit as a done deal and are waiting for it to happen, I think.

[Spudulike]

...but surely you wouldn't vote for a party that is promoting leaving the EU (in whatever flavour) if that's not what you want ??

[The Doctor]

24 minutes ago, Spudulike said:

...but surely you wouldn't vote for a party that is promoting leaving the EU (in whatever flavour) if that's not what you want ??

Eh, at this point we're gone, for most remainers it's now about voting for the party that will deliver the least worst deal and potentially having a route back in in a generation or two.

[Charl91]

30 minutes ago, Spudulike said:

...but surely you wouldn't vote for a party that is promoting leaving the EU (in whatever flavour) if that's not what you want ??

 

It's inevitable that we're going to leave now.

 

So why vote Lib Dem, and waste my vote, if it won't make a difference. Better to vote Labour, and hope they give us a slightly less shit Brexit then Theresa May's "Red White and Blue Hard Brexit-means-Brexit" Brexit.

[Foxxed]

On 08/06/2017 at 11:38, Webbo said:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/18/imf-ratchets-up-uk-economic-growth-forecast-to-2

How does this relate to

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/08/uk-economy-falls-to-bottom-of-eu-growth-league

 

Quote

The UK economy was the worst performer in the European Union in the opening months of 2017 as the Brexit vote took its toll, according to official statistics that underscore the challenge facing the next British government.

 

With economic growth of just 0.2% in the first three months of this year, the UK was well behind its European neighbours. Official EU figures released as Britons went to the polls on Thursday showed the growth for the whole of the EU was 0.6% in the first quarter. The eurozone single currency bloc also grew 0.6% in the opening quarter, buoyed by strong domestic demand.

 

The article you posted is from April. The one below is from June.

[Foxxed]

She goes hard Brexit and you have Irish terrorism due to a border of any kind.

 

Or she goes soft Brexit and her party splits.

 

Or she gives NI a soft Brexit but GB a hard Brexit and the DUP sees this as giving NI to Ireland.

 

Terrorism, Tory party split or coalition breakdown.

 

Can she convince Sinn Fein - the political arm of the IRA - not to "complain" about a hard border?

 

Can she convince her party not to complain about a border-less soft Brexit?

 

Can she convince the DUP not to complain about NI having different border and trade laws to the UK?

 

She's ****ed. The Tories are ****ed.

 

****ed by Northern Ireland, ****ed by May's poor election performance, ****ed by her decision to do a deal with the DUP and ****ed by her own party's stance on Brexit.
 

 

 

[Rincewind]

It could be the Conservative and Unionist Negotiating Team  going to Brussels then? 

[Thracian]

11 hours ago, Foxxed said:

How does this relate to

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/08/uk-economy-falls-to-bottom-of-eu-growth-league

 

 

The article you posted is from April. The one below is from June.

It's easy to pull stats out to support a point of view.

The EU hasn't done especially well in the past and uncertainty isn't helping the UK now after what's been a solid enough spell.

What was a clear cut decision requiring positive action has evolved into a fudge courtesy of a declared Remainer supposingly guiding us safely and soundly towards the exit door.

And a pretty catastrophic fudge as far as this nation's identity, safety and wellbeing is concerned.

So many mistakes and so little  leadership.

It only emphasises to me why I'm so doubtful about democracy and, ironically,  I'm not sure Corbyn will be any different when the time comes and in his own deceptively ruthless/relentless/committed way.

Crobyn standing four-square for Britain and the British?

It's hard to imagine but then May talked about being tough and trustworthy so I really shouldn't mock.         

[boots60]

14 hours ago, Rincewind said:

It could be the Conservative and Unionist Negotiating Team  going to Brussels then? 

Good acronym ☺

[Great Boos Up]

This will go to the last day. With the next round of our political game of thrones, bickering and in fighting. The other influential EU pauses as other countries elections come and go. Global disasters, resignations and deciding which sandwiches to order may result in not a single tariff being set. Back to W.T.O in two years then and that's just basically a 15% tax on everything we buy or sell.

So the rich won't really notice and the general struggling household will incur more austerity.

Somebody just start talking and stop pontificating about how our electoral result went as there is no hard or soft brexit left now.

It's a giant shit sandwich and we're all gonna take a bite.

 

 

[Foxxed]

On 06/10/2017 at 11:32, Thracian said:

It's easy to pull stats out to support a point of view.

The EU hasn't done especially well in the past and uncertainty isn't helping the UK now after what's been a solid enough spell.

What was a clear cut decision requiring positive action has evolved into a fudge courtesy of a declared Remainer supposingly guiding us safely and soundly towards the exit door.

And a pretty catastrophic fudge as far as this nation's identity, safety and wellbeing is concerned.

So many mistakes and so little  leadership.

It only emphasises to me why I'm so doubtful about democracy and, ironically,  I'm not sure Corbyn will be any different when the time comes and in his own deceptively ruthless/relentless/committed way.

Crobyn standing four-square for Britain and the British?

It's hard to imagine but then May talked about being tough and trustworthy so I really shouldn't mock.         

You say it's a fudge. You mean it's not extreme.

 

We voted to leave the EU. The EU is the political entity that jointly decides a superset of laws, some involved with non economic issues like security and the environment.

 

But mostly it jointly decides - through treaty signings, the eu parliament and the national ministers - economic laws.

 

These economic laws make up what we call the Single Market. And to have a single market we need goods, firms and people to pass freely through that market.

 

This is not easy to follow but you can abide by the Single Market rules - just like Norway - to benefit from selling your goods and, in our case, services to a larger market without impediments.

 

Our financial sector benefits massively from selling services without impediments. Our chemical and pharmaceutical industry benefits from the lack of impediments making goods in different parts of the Single Market. This names just three industries.

 

And now the financial sector is already moving to Dublin, Paris and Frankfurt. Our chemical industry has already warned it will not be competitive. Our fintech firms needing access to the Single Market are leaving by 2019.

 

You say it's a fudge. You mean it hasn't gone further than the referendum's mandate.

 

You want to erect a border so it's harder for UK firms to be profitable. Some people think this is economic madness. Some think this engagers jobs. Some think this is a retreat from Britain's fine history of economic competence.

[Foxxed]

Also, it's easy to pull a more up to date stat to prove a point, yes.

[Guest MattP]

Anyone else a bit surprised to see Labour now committed to taking us out the single market? 

 

McDonnell confirmed it on Peston

[LiberalFox]

38 minutes ago, MattP said:

Anyone else a bit surprised to see Labour now committed to taking us out the single market? 

 

McDonnell confirmed it on Peston

Not really, Corbyn was always a bit eurosceptic and they know that arguing for freedom of movement would be a vote loser. Jump on the customs union position before the Tories can and they gain so much politically because I think that is the most popular position. Now either the Tories have to change course and agree with Corbyn or they look like UKIP going for a hard Brexit.

[Alf Bentley]

53 minutes ago, MattP said:

Anyone else a bit surprised to see Labour now committed to taking us out the single market? 

 

McDonnell confirmed it on Peston

 

It was implied in the manifesto, which stated that the priority was "retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union" (not retaining membership): 

Indeed, they were criticised for this by some pro-EU people: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-hard-brexit-stance-jeremy-corbyn-eu-withdrawal-keir-starmer-open-britain-campaign-group-a7739226.html

 

I presume that this is connected to the manifesto commitment to accept the end of free movement. If they had announced that they intended to end free movement and stay in the Single Market, they would have been crucified as the EU has already made it clear that this is a non-starter. Likewise, if they had not committed to end free movement they would have been crucified and probably lost the support of many core voters for whom immigration is a big issue.

 

Whether it is feasible to negotiate to end free movement, leave the Single Market but still retain many of the benefits of the Single Market and Customs Union is open to debate. Open Britain (Independent article) obviously think not. Maybe it would be an option if the UK continued to make payments to the EU? I don't see any manifesto commitment not to make payments to the EU....

 

Being cynical, there might also be an option to change policy further down the line: e.g. if the potential economic damage of leaving the Single Market was becoming more apparent and voters started seeing that as a higher priority than ending free movement...

 

Here's the manifesto: http://www.labour.org.uk/page/-/Images/manifesto-2017/Labour Manifesto 2017.pdf

- pp.24-27 re. Brexit

- pp. 28-29 re. immigration

- pp.30-31 re. international trade

[SMX11]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

Anyone else a bit surprised to see Labour now committed to taking us out the single market? 

 

McDonnell confirmed it on Peston

They can't have their socialist utopia if they have the regulation controlled in Brussels. This is main reason why Corbyn went missing in the EU referendum.

 

As far as I know both manifestos said or implied that we will leave the single market and customs union, so I don't understand the idea that it will no suddenly stay in. Think it is more of the BBC's wet dream than reality.