Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

[Countryfox]

7 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

Brexit uncertainty putting 860,000 jobs at risk, says car industry

needs Britain to remain in customs union ‘Sectoras a minimum’, says lobby group

 

Car manufacturers have warned Theresa May there is “no Brexit dividend” for the industry, with 860,000 jobs being put at risk unless the government “rethinks” its red lines in negotiations.

 

In the starkest warning yet from a single business sector, the car lobby has told the government that it needs “as a minimum” to remain in the customs union and a deal that delivers “single market benefits”.

“There is no Brexit dividend for our industry,” Michael Hawes, the chief executive of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), said.

It said Brexit uncertainty was thwarting investment and repeated calls for the UK to stay in the customs union until the government came up with a “credible plan B”.

With investment slowing and time running out, negotiators had to get on with the job of agreeing a deal that would put an end to uncertainty and prioritise the needs of the automotive sector, the SMMT said.

The sector had grown for the eighth successive year with turnover at a record £82bn in 2017. However, it said 2018 has showed a slowdown in output, with investment earmarked for new models, equipments and facilities in the UK halving to about £347m.

In a lengthy statement showing the depth of frustration over Brexit in the sector, the SMMT hinted that car firms including BMW, Honda and Nissan would have to move production elsewhere if the uncertainty around Brexit continued for much longer.

“With decisions on new vehicle models in the UK due soon, government must take steps to boost investor confidence and safeguard the thousands of jobs that depend on the sector,” it said ahead of a key conference for the automotive industry.

 

The government had “no credible plan B” for customs arrangements post-Brexit, it said, that would keep the port of Dover flowing freely.

Car manufacturers rely on what is known as “just in time” production whereby components, mostly from the EU, cross the Channel just hours before they are needed on the assembly line. More than 1,000 trucks a day cross the Channel with these components.

“The current position, with conflicting messages and red lines, goes directly against the interests of the UK automotive sector which has thrived on single market and customs union membership,” said Hawes. “There is no credible ‘plan B’ for frictionless customs arrangements, nor is it realistic to expect that new trade deals can be agreed with the rest of the world that will replicate the immense value of trade with the EU. Government must rethink its position on the customs union.”

Frictionless borders could only be achieved through continued membership of the customs union and maintenance of the benefits that the single market delivered, he added.

“There is no Brexit dividend for our industry, particularly in what is an increasingly hostile and protectionist global trading environment. Our message to government is that until it can demonstrate exactly how a new model for customs and trade with the EU can replicate the benefits we currently enjoy, don’t change it,” he said.

The car industry is one of the leading employers in the country, responsible for 856,000 jobs, 186,000 of which are on the production lines.

 

Hawes told reporters at the International Automotive Summit in London that “signs were more ominous” for investment this year after eight years of growth.

 

“If we cannot cut through the fog of the uncertainty there will be casualties,” he said. “For this year are more ominous, contingency planning, job losses, investment halved to less than £350m so far year, that’s the cost of uncertainty, that that’s the price we pay for slow decision-making,” he said.

Ian Robertson, the most senior British executive at the German firm BMW, said: “We are not turning our backs on the UK.” But he said that any delay in Dover “would start to impact” upon manufacturing and its competitiveness.

He said BMW was not intending to move any car production to any of its other plants around the world but it would be “foolhardy” not to have “contingency ideas”.

The company uses 5m components a day, with 250 trucks a day delivering many of these from Europe on the Calais-Dover route.

He said that the car industry was “the most competitive” it had ever been, inferring that added costs would not be something the British consumer would bear.

“We can ill afford to have things that are thrust into that competitive equation,” said Robertson.

 

Hawes’ comments came hours after BMW said it would be forced to close its production sites in the UK, putting 8,000 jobs at risk, if components for Mini and Rolls-Royce cars were caught up in customs delays after Brexit.

 

Bosses from BMW and other car companies have been urging the government for months not to damage the supply chain that keeps Britain’s car assembly lines running.

Speaking later on the BBC, Hawes said the car industry was not likely to close overnight, but it was suffering “a death by 1,000 cuts”.

Honda told the Financial Times on Tuesday it still only stored enough parts to maintain production of the Honda Civic for 36 hours.

To keep its plant in Swindon open for nine days, it would need to build the largest building in the world, with the equivalent of 42 football pitches, almost three times the size of Amazon’s main US distribution centre.

 

 

 

We're all dooooomed !!! .... dooomed i tell ye !!!! .....      

[Strokes]

11 minutes ago, Countryfox said:

 

We're all dooooomed !!! .... dooomed i tell ye !!!! .....      

We need to bring back horse and cart anyway, might as well get ahead of the game.

[Milo]

9 minutes ago, Countryfox said:

We're all dooooomed !!! .... dooomed i tell ye !!!! .....      

Best get used to it - Ready made excuse for underperforming companies! Or companies that want to 'restructure' (get rid of staff) so they can increase profits. 

 

[Strokes]

6 minutes ago, Milo said:

Best get used to it - Ready made excuse for underperforming companies! Or companies that want to 'restructure' (get rid of staff) so they can increase profits. 

 

It will be a great time to be an entrepreneur with all these big businesses pissing off to the united states of europe. I cant wait.....

Edited 26 June 2018 by Strokes

[Guest MattP]

Big Business good, vote Tory, vote Remain.

Big Business bad, vote Labour, vote Leave.

Big Business good sometimes, vote Labour, vote Remain.

Big business bad sometimes, vote Tory, vote Leave.

[Donut]

15 minutes ago, Strokes said:

It will be a great time to be an entrepreneur with all these big businesses pissing off to the united states of europe. I cant wait.....

 

And not so great for people who could well lose their jobs.

 

Quite a few probably voted TO lose their job.

[Strokes]

8 minutes ago, Donut said:

And not so great for people who could well lose their jobs.

 

Quite a few probably voted TO lose their job.

Whats your point?

[Donut]

33 minutes ago, Strokes said:

Whats your point?

think the point is obvious isn't it? brexit could lose people their jobs.

 

Not sure what the point of talking about how wonderful things will be for entrepreneurs, unless the people losing their jobs become entrepreneurs themselves or are hired by the huge rise in business for the entrepreneurs you speculate will happen.

 

Are these entrepreneurs that wont have to import any components too for their products, or ingredients? or will they have some sort of customs arrangement no one else will?

 

If they voted in the name of sovereignty it was a price worth paying.

Edited 26 June 2018 by Donut

[Strokes]

19 minutes ago, Donut said:

think the point is obvious isn't it? brexit could lose people their jobs.

 

Not sure what the point of talking about how wonderful things will be for entrepreneurs, unless the people losing their jobs become entrepreneurs themselves or are hired by the huge rise in business for the entrepreneurs.

 

Are these entrepreneurs that wont have to import any components too for their products, or ingredients? or will they have some sort of customs arrangement no one else will?

 

If they voted in the name of sovereignty it was a price worth paying.

Id imagine they would have a wide range of varying skills, needs and requirements, otherwise they wouldnt last long. However the rules would be the same for all the local competition, so im really not sure why it would be an issue.

 

You do know that there are countries that are not in the EU right? And they have a population, of which still go to work, and some how manage to provide without the EU.

 

[Carl the Llama]

Sickening to see the same people who cried foul about Labour crippling the global economy and losing lots of people their jobs are now gleefully rubbing their hands at the prospect of job losses because apparently the livelihood of thousands of people you don't know - and the health of the economy as a whole - is now a price worth paying for immigration control powers we already had but chose not to enact.  If only labour thought to claim that the global crisis made it easier to keep immigrants out they'd be government for life. 

 

And of course there's no self-reflection on this, instead let's just double down on the claims of scaremongering: It's just bad businessmen making excuses for their poor performance. Yeah.

[Strokes]

8 minutes ago, Carl the Llama said:

Sickening to see the same people who cried foul about Labour crippling the global economy and losing lots of people their jobs are now gleefully rubbing their hands at the prospect of job losses because apparently the livelihood of thousands of people you don't know - and the health of the economy as a whole - is now a price worth paying for immigration control powers we already had but chose not to enact.  If only labour thought to claim that the global crisis made it easier to keep immigrants out they'd be government for life. 

 

And of course there's no self-reflection on this, instead let's just double down on the claims of scaremongering: It's just bad businessmen making excuses for their poor performance. Yeah.

Carl because we could kick out immigrants on benefits after 3 months does not mean you have contril of immigration and can stop the wage squeeze. Over supply of labour creates cheap labour, the EU has done nothing to prevent this.

It is ironic that the lefties bemoan the motor industry being brought to its knees though...

Edited 26 June 2018 by Strokes

[Buce]

2 hours ago, Strokes said:

It will be a great time to be an entrepreneur with all these big businesses pissing off to the united states of europe. I cant wait.....

 

 

Yeah, mate - all we entrepreneurs will make a fortune with our hand-made cars.

[Claridge]

All these knicker wetters who claim we will be out of work if we leave, seem to ignore the chronic un-employment of the young in many of the EU countries. Lefties listening to project fear and multi nationals.Always thought they were to blame for the loss of jobs?

 

[Guest Foxin_mad]

1 hour ago, Carl the Llama said:

Sickening to see the same people who cried foul about Labour crippling the global economy and losing lots of people their jobs are now gleefully rubbing their hands at the prospect of job losses because apparently the livelihood of thousands of people you don't know - and the health of the economy as a whole - is now a price worth paying for immigration control powers we already had but chose not to enact.  If only labour thought to claim that the global crisis made it easier to keep immigrants out they'd be government for life. 

 

And of course there's no self-reflection on this, instead let's just double down on the claims of scaremongering: It's just bad businessmen making excuses for their poor performance. Yeah.

I am by no means a Brexit backer but we have had a vote and we have to get on with it. We have to look pragmatically, yes there are some enormous arseholes within the EU and it does need reform, there are also so massive twats in our own government. A decision has been made and we need to just get on and stop whining about it. Its not really in anyone's benefit for there to be no deal or to 'punish' the 5th largest consumer economy that would likely trigger a global recession, just so the EU can say in punished naughty Britain for daring to leave its club would be a tad silly...and childish.

 

There is also some shred of irony that the people crying foul of Brexit are the also some of the same people who are wanting to elect a far left extremist government that would crash the economy and see job losses like we have never seen before. 

 

At the end of the day the solution to idiots like the BMW man, is to make sure that absolutely no British people buy BMW cars in that circumstance and make it VERY Clear. Whack a tariff on of 65% if they don't want to manufacture in Britain then it will be assumed that the no longer wish to sell their products here.

 

At the end of the day we are a country of 68 million people, we are the 5th largest consumer market in the world, we will continue to need to buy products whether we are in or out of the EU and someone somewhere in this world will sell us the products we want at a decent price. It should be made pretty clear that companies acting in this manner will not be selling to the world 5th largest consumer marketplace without significant tariffs if they wish to go all political on us.  

[Strokes]

16 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

Yeah, mate - all we entrepreneurs will make a fortune with our hand-made cars.

Maybe not but theyre might be a good market in car maintence and manufacture of pattern parts.

[Buce]

2 minutes ago, Strokes said:

Maybe not but theyre might be a good market in car maintence and manufacture of pattern parts.

 

I'm thinking home-made soups might be the way to go.

 

All those soup kitchens will need to get it from somewhere.

[Strokes]

1 minute ago, Buce said:

 

I'm thinking home-made soups might be the way to go.

 

All those soup kitchens will need to get it from somewhere.

Thats a good idea, theyre will be loads of available pitches on lane 3 of the motorways when the car stocks die up.

[Buce]

 

5 minutes ago, Strokes said:

Thats a good idea, theyre will be loads of available pitches on lane 3 of the motorways when the car stocks die up.

 

I now realise the Leave campaign's fiendish plan to rid ourselves of immigrant workers - destroy all the jobs and they'll all go elsewhere.

 

Almost Machiavellian in its brilliance.

[Claridge]

Well all the thick racist whites who voted  Brexit don’t have jobs or cars anyway, so why worry. As long as the smack gets here?

Edited 26 June 2018 by Claridge
spelling

[Guest MattP]

Some appalling predictions but both side of the divide.

 

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/06/project-fear-two-years-on-six-brexit-predictions-that-failed-to-come-true/

 

Quote

 

It’s just over two years since the UK voted to leave the European Union in what proved to be a shock result that caught both politicians and commentators off guard. Unlike Lord Ashdown’s hat-eating, or Matthew Goodwin’s book eating after the two most recent General Elections, many didn’t get held accountable to their off the mark Brexit predictions.

 

Happily, Mr S is on hand to correct that. Steerpike has compiled a list of some of the Brexit predictions that failed to come true:

 

1. JP Morgan: Scotland will leave the UK and get a new currency

 

Days after the EU referendum, investment company JP Morgan announced in an email to clients that they expected Scotland to leave the union and change currency. (As did Andrew Marr in the immediate aftermath of the vote.) Eagle-eyed readers may have noticed that Scotland is neither independent and nor using a currency other than the pound. In fact, since the EU referendum, 40 polls have shown support for the union, whilst only four have come out in favour of independence. Sturgeon’s IndyRef2 gamble backfired – and she lost several seats in last year’s general election as Scots expressed recoiled from her plan. In JP Morgan’s defence, they said it would have to happen before 2019 – though it’ll have to be a hectic few months…

 

2. Arron Banks: New UKIP to become official opposition

 

Ukip mega-donor and self described ‘bad boy of Brexit’ Arron Banks is far from a shy man, as shown by his comments to the Guardian a week after the referendum:

‘I think we have a good shot at taking over from Labour as the opposition because Labour are imploding and Labour voters for the first time ever have defied their party, voting for leave,’

Perhaps Banks was trying to speak something into existence when he predicted a new, pro-Brexit party would overtake Labour as the opposition party of the UK, amongst other claims. Ukip went on to collapse and has not managed to poll above 5pc this year…

Where Banks was right however, was when he diagnosed UKIP ‘had problems with personnel’ – oddly self-aware too.

 

3. Goldman Sachs: Recession by 2017

As the old saying goes, economists predict fifteen of the next two recessions. Mr S feels it has never been more adequately applied than to Goldman Sachs’ note, which declared the British economy would go into recession by early 2017. (Goldman had donated £500,000 to the Remain campaign.) Credit Suisse predicted a 1pc fall in GDP and Nomura a 1.3pc fall. Chris Giles, the normally brilliant economics editor of the FT, also predicted recession and started a weekly series of economic indicators in his newspaper which he thought would point to this recession. Instead, economic growth actually accelerated: growth was 1.4pc.

 

4. HM Treasury: Half a million job losses

Whilst there were many incorrect takes after the referendum, none quite match the Government’s Project Fear centrepiece: HM Treasury analysis:the long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives.

In the milder of its two disaster scenarios, HM Treasury predicted the UK would slide into recession, “unemployment would increase by around 500,000 with all regions experiencing a rise in rise in the number of people out of work”. It felt able to be very specific: 24,000 job losses in Wales, 43,000 in Scotland, etc. Instead, more than half a million jobs have been created – across every UK region and unemployment has been forced to a 43-year low. Still, at least the Government didn’t bluff an emergency budget! Mr S is in no doubt the Treasury has taken its error on the chin, and has now learnt the lesson of its anti-Brexit bias

 

5. Robert Ward: UKIP revival, Labour split and end of two party politics

Not as grand a claim as many other of the claims in this piece, The Economist’s Robert Ward’s post-Brexit take was impressive, merely by how many individual aspects were completely wrong. Ward claimed UK politics post-Brexit would have more smaller parties (wrong), that Labour would inevitably split (wrong), and that UKIP would take advantage of Labour’s weakness (very, very wrong). Fair play to Robert though – you don’t score any of the shots you don’t take.

 

6. Andrew Cooper: Remain to win by 10 points

 

Although some on this list had to wait years for a reality check on their duff predictions, David Cameron’s former polling guru Andrew ‘Calamity’ Cooper only had to wait an afternoon. On the referendum day, he published a poll for Populus that showed Remain with a ten-point lead – which, given that Calamity was also chief pollster to the In campaign, was quite a statement. And a signal of how far down the garden path he has led his fellow Remainers. When the inevitable embarrassment came, at least Calamity had his personal record to fall back on – predicting Cameron had a 0.5pc chance of a Tory majority in 2015. At the time of writing, Cooper is seeking new clients to advise.

 

 

[DANGEROUS TIGER]

21 hours ago, Carl the Llama said:

So you agree with the current system under EU law...

In that one off instance, yes.

[Guest MattP]

EU withdrawal bill given Royal Assent - Brexit is now enshrined in law.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44615245

[the fox]

 

[lifted*fox]

12 minutes ago, MattP said:

EU withdrawal bill given Royal Assent - Brexit is now enshrined in law.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44615245

 

[lifted*fox]

Teresa May makes me want to chop my dick off and launch it over the garden fence. 

 

I'd rather **** a porcupine riddled with aids tbh. 

 

Foot long BBQ sausage for the neighbours though.