What's in the news?

[Jon the Hat]

5 hours ago, Wymeswold fox said:

Alex Salmond has been arrested.

Charged with 2 counts of attempted rape and multiple sexual assaults.  Nice.

[Innovindil]

Jon the Hat on the rampage 

[Voll Blau]

Quote

Jaguar Land Rover says there will be an additional week-long stand-down of production in April.

The announcement from the Midlands car giant comes due to the potential disruption caused by Brexit.

It will affect all three car plants and its engine plant.

https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/jaguar-land-rover-announces-week-15727912

 

Bostin'! 

[Countryfox]

6 hours ago, Toddybad said:

Airbus CEO:

 

The firm's chief executive, Tom Enders, said the firm "will have to make potentially very harmful decisions for the UK" in the event of no deal.

Mr Enders said it was a "disgrace" that businesses could still not plan for Brexit.

In all, Airbus employs 14,000 people in the UK.

That includes 6,000 jobs at its main wings factory at Broughton in Wales, as well as 3,000 at Filton, near Bristol, where wings are designed and supported.

Mr Enders said: "Please don't listen to the Brexiteers' madness which asserts that, because we have huge plants here, we will not move and we will always be here. They are wrong."

 

Brexiteer MPs:

 

Fake news! 

 

 

Well, if Mr CEO big business Airbus says it might make a dent in his profits we better have another vote.

 

Do you seriously think he’s bothered about what’s best for this country? ...  regardless of what is better ...  or in reality how it affects big business Mr CEO’s profits and what goes into big CEO Airbus mans big bloated bank account??

[Innovindil]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46984349

 

Another case of it's easier to preach than do. Jesus wept. 

[Innovindil]

57 minutes ago, Voll Blau said:

https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/jaguar-land-rover-announces-week-15727912

 

Bostin'! 

The car maker is facing challenging times because of slowing sales in China, declining demand for diesel cars and uncertainty over Brexit.

 

Ooooof. Diesel sales fall, company that makes what? 90% of its cars diesel? Struggles? 

 

Shock. 

[gw_leics772]

31 minutes ago, Innovindil said:

The car maker is facing challenging times because of slowing sales in China, declining demand for diesel cars and uncertainty over Brexit.

 

Ooooof. Diesel sales fall, company that makes what? 90% of its cars diesel? Struggles? 

 

Shock. 

No,.you read it wrong, its all about brexit ????

[Alf Bentley]

1 hour ago, Jon the Hat said:

Let me say with absolute certainty that there is absolutely no chance whatsoever of the Irish Government ordering Garda to the border.  None. 

 

I'm always sceptical when people speak "with absolute certainty" - and no evidence. 

 

I've no idea whether the Irish Govt would order the Gardaí to the border, but am sure they'd be under EU pressure to protect the Single Market against unregulated imports from the UK - and from Irish traders to protect their interests.

 

If there's No Deal and neither Ireland nor the UK erects a hard border, are you assuming that the EU would just accept the integrity of the SM being undermined? Comments from the EU suggest otherwise.

 

Then there's the WTO. They've said that they wouldn't automatically intervene in the unlikely event that Ireland/EU and the UK were operating 2 different Customs regimes without border controls.....but that WTO members could bring cases against the UK and the EU: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/wto-says-its-rules-would-not-force-eu-or-uk-to-erect-hard-irish-border-1.3710136

 

Ireland exports a lot of beef to the UK. Without border controls, Ireland would effectively be exporting beef (and everything else) unregulated and tariff-free to the UK. How would other beef-exporting nations react to that when they were having to meet UK regulations and pay tariffs? Take the USA: is Trump really going to say "that's OK, lads, I'm happy for the US to trade at a disadvantage...America last!"? WTO cases would be brought against the UK and the EU, surely? Objections have already been raised at the WTO about other potential UK post-Brexit actions by the likes of Russia....with even supposedly friendly nations like Australia threatening to do so.

 

1 hour ago, Jon the Hat said:

How long do you think it would take Airbus to build new factories to replace the UK ones, and at what cost?  Maybe more than a couple of months?  They are going nowhere at all.

 

Airbus already has factories in France, Germany and Spain, so they might be able to move some production quicker than you think without building any new factories....though it's presumably no simple task ensuring that you have the right space, machinery, expertise, workforce, suppliers, transport, storage facilities etc. That's why I presume that a major shift would not happen overnight. More likely the shift would take place over several years. There are other complications, though, re. whether the 4000 Airbus suppliers had EU approval etc. This gives some idea of the complexity of the set-up:  file:///C:/Users/User/Downloads/Brexit-Risk-Assessment-21-Jun-FINAL.pdf (at https://www.airbus.com/company/worldwide-presence/uk.html).

 

Stating that Airbus "are going nowhere at all" because it would be a major cost/task to set up new factories is a bit short-sighted. It's reason to believe that it wouldn't all happen overnight......but all the companies and industries that have shifted production to Asia over recent decades had factories in the UK, didn't they? Didn't stop them moving production - over several years - when it was in company interests.

 

1 hour ago, Jon the Hat said:

I'm not sure why you think we should suddenly listen to millionaire CEOs?  You Labour types usually hate the 1%, and now you want them to influence our democratic process?  Bit of a turnaround that. 

 

That comment about "Labour types usually hating the 1%" is a bit of crude attack for you. I wouldn't say that all "you Tory types" usually hate the workers or the poor....and wouldn't see you as a hypocrite if you approved of May speaking to the unions.

 

Anyway, the reason for at least listening to what these "millionaire CEOs" say is because they're talking about their particular industries from the perspective of their corporate self-interest....but raising the prospect of actions that would cause major economic and social harm to people and communities in this country. Doesn't mean they get a democratic veto, but their input should be heard and taken into account.

 

The Risk Assessment doc (linked above) gives more detail (e.g. Airbus support 110,000 jobs in supply chain, they claim). But this corporate blurb from their web site explains why they deserve a hearing:

 

"Employing a 14,000-strong workforce across more than 25 sites, Airbus is firmly rooted in the UK and its advanced technology industrial base stretching the length and breadth of the country from Aberdeen to Portsmouth. Airbus is the largest commercial aerospace company in the UK and its biggest civil aerospace exporter; the biggest supplier of helicopters in the country; the UK’s largest space company and leading commercial provider of military satellite communications; the biggest supplier of large aircraft to the Royal Air Force; and a world leader in cyber security. Each year Airbus spends in excess of £5 billion with UK suppliers. This UK supply chain comprises more than 4,000 companies, ranging from large primes such as Rolls-Royce and GKN to hundreds of small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) suppliers, each playing a vital role in helping Airbus deliver its world-leading products".

[Jon the Hat]

The Irish have been very clear they won’t put in a hard border, as have we; so who is going to enforce it?

 

yes Airbus Christmas uk’s move, as could companies which aren’t trying to influence the democratic process.  They won’t do it due to a possible outcome though, it will be way too expensive.

 

i honestly have to laugh at those normally anti big business suddenly all over it when it supports their point of view - you have to admit it is funny.

[Jon the Hat]

I still believe we will pass a transition agreement when the E.U. let us delete the backstop in a could of weeks.

[Toddybad]

55 minutes ago, Countryfox said:

 

Well, if Mr CEO big business Airbus says it might make a dent in his profits we better have another vote.

 

Do you seriously think he’s bothered about what’s best for this country? ...  regardless of what is better ...  or in reality how it affects big business Mr CEO’s profits and what goes into big CEO Airbus mans big bloated bank account??

Can I assume you've read the rest of the comments that followed and come down off that high horse now? 

[Countryfox]

1 minute ago, Toddybad said:

Can I assume you've read the rest of the comments that followed and come down off that high horse now? 

 

He’s making a very obvious threat cus they will have to pay a bit more to get their wings and a few others bits in to their UK factories ...    I don’t really think they will uproot and move elsewhere ...   he is trying to affect how the government proceed ..   out of order.

[Toddybad]

11 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

The Irish have been very clear they won’t put in a hard border, as have we; so who is going to enforce it?

 

yes Airbus Christmas uk’s move, as could companies which aren’t trying to influence the democratic process.  They won’t do it due to a possible outcome though, it will be way too expensive.

 

i honestly have to laugh at those normally anti big business suddenly all over it when it supports their point of view - you have to admit it is funny.

Brexit in general has seen everybody vote and argue against their normal values. 

 

Really it should be the right arguing to remain in a free trade bloc that was built on trade and big business, and the left arguing for leave. 

 

Also, you find that people argue that a small increase to corporation tax under corbyn would decimate business, whilst at the same time arguing that tariffs on exports are fine. 

 

World's gone mad. 

[AlloverthefloorYesNdidi]

12 minutes ago, Toddybad said:

Brexit in general has seen everybody vote and argue against their normal values. 

 

Really it should be the right arguing to remain in a free trade bloc that was built on trade and big business, and the left arguing for leave. 

 

Also, you find that people argue that a small increase to corporation tax under corbyn would decimate business, whilst at the same time arguing that tariffs on exports are fine. 

 

World's gone mad. 

When Brexit first reared its head this is exactly what I thought. Then as it unfolded it turned out not to be the case at all.

 

I know eff all about politics though so dont know if it was to be expected or not

[Alf Bentley]

11 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

The Irish have been very clear they won’t put in a hard border, as have we; so who is going to enforce it?

 

yes Airbus Christmas uk’s move, as could companies which aren’t trying to influence the democratic process.  They won’t do it due to a possible outcome though, it will be way too expensive.

 

i honestly have to laugh at those normally anti big business suddenly all over it when it supports their point of view - you have to admit it is funny.

 

I answered your first question in my previous post (a long post, I appreciate). Although Ireland and the UK don't want a hard border, it's very possible that the EU will pressure Ireland to impose one - otherwise the EU could face major WTO trade disputes launched by other countries (trade rivals viewing it as unfair competition or simply political "enemies", like Russia, being opportunistic). Cases could also be brought at the WTO against the UK, for breaching "Most favoured nation" rules - and that could do massive damage to UK trading terms worldwide. Might not happen.....but a clear risk.

 

I'm sure any firm with high capital investment and complex operations (like Airbus) will indeed wait for a definite outcome....but that definite outcome might only be 2 months away now. Some businesses without high capital investment in fixed locations have already been moving operations, though, even if the outcome is only "possible" at the moment: e.g. P&O re-registering UK ferries in Cyprus, financial traders moving some operations to Dublin, Frankfurt, Paris etc. If No Deal is confirmed, I'm sure even firms like Airbus, which would face massive expense to relocate, would start making plans - even if it took several years for all the plans to be put into effect (and it wouldn't for some of them).

 

Yes, there's an element of irony in Lefties quoting corporate moguls when it suits them - as there is when Tories quote Blairites criticising Corbyn or Hard Left types supporting Brexit. My interest is in what such CEOs say about their possible actions - and the potential impact of those actions on jobs, the British economy, British society etc. That doesn't mean that I suddenly agree with everything they say (though I don't hate them) or stop thinking that some of them are massively overpaid.

 

 

10 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

I still believe we will pass a transition agreement when the E.U. let us delete the backstop in a could of weeks.

 

I've almost given up trying to work out what's going to happen, but think this is one of the least likely things to happen.

 

No Deal, second referendum, election, parliament capitulating and accepting May's Deal and a delay/renegotiation of Softer Brexit terms could all be more likely than that outcome, I reckon.....

 

Though I have been known to get things wrong occasionally! 

[bovril]

14 minutes ago, Toddybad said:

Brexit in general has seen everybody vote and argue against their normal values. 

 

Really it should be the right arguing to remain in a free trade bloc that was built on trade and big business, and the left arguing for leave. 

 

Also, you find that people argue that a small increase to corporation tax under corbyn would decimate business, whilst at the same time arguing that tariffs on exports are fine. 

 

World's gone mad. 

Not necessarily. One could argue that being in a powerful trading bloc helps us retain workers rights and being isolated opens us up to full neo-liberal shafting the EU could only dream of. 

[bovril]

Some journalists on the continent claiming EU leaders will agree to an extension of art. 50 only if it's for a year and we take part in EU elections. Personally I think it might be good to wait after them anyway as we could see a rise in far-right populists and the EU will be more willing to compromise. Maybe. 

[Alf Bentley]

20 minutes ago, Countryfox said:

 

He’s making a very obvious threat cus they will have to pay a bit more to get their wings and a few others bits in to their UK factories ...    I don’t really think they will uproot and move elsewhere ...   he is trying to affect how the government proceed ..   out of order.

 

It's a bit more complicated than having to pay a bit more to acquire parts, I think.

 

Try having a look at this Airbus "Brexit Risk Assessment" to get some idea of the problems involved:  file:///C:/Users/User/Downloads/Brexit-Risk-Assessment-21-Jun-FINAL.pdf (at https://www.airbus.com/company/worldwide-presence/uk.html).

(It's quite short - and dates from last June)

[Strokes]

5 minutes ago, bovril said:

Some journalists on the continent claiming EU leaders will agree to an extension of art. 50 only if it's for a year and we take part in EU elections. Personally I think it might be good to wait after them anyway as we could see a rise in far-right populists and the EU will be more willing to compromise. Maybe. 

It certainly has the potential to increase our chances of a more favourable deal.

[Alf Bentley]

7 minutes ago, bovril said:

Some journalists on the continent claiming EU leaders will agree to an extension of art. 50 only if it's for a year and we take part in EU elections. Personally I think it might be good to wait after them anyway as we could see a rise in far-right populists and the EU will be more willing to compromise. Maybe. 

 

Interesting point.....though I wonder what the outcome of EU elections in the UK would be if Brexit is still hanging over us.

 

Quite aside from the prospect for public disorder, our own far-right populists could seize the moment and do very well - UKIP featuring Tommy Robinson etc. Euro elections could be just the oxygen they need to grow big.

 

Though the involvement of Farage in this new Brexit Party could offset that. Although I don't like Farage's politics on Brexit or anything else, he has actually been quite helpful in diverting potential Far Right supporters towards his less extremist cause - populist Euroscepticism or whatever you'd call the old UKIP  and this new Brexit Party.

[bovril]

Just now, Alf Bentley said:

 

Interesting point.....though I wonder what the outcome of EU elections in the UK would be if Brexit is still hanging over us.

 

Quite aside from the prospect for public disorder, our own far-right populists could seize the moment and do very well - UKIP featuring Tommy Robinson etc. Euro elections could be just the oxygen they need to grow big.

 

Though the involvement of Farage in this new Brexit Party could offset that. Although I don't like Farage's politics on Brexit or anything else, he has actually been quite helpful in diverting potential Far Right supporters towards his less extremist cause - populist Euroscepticism or whatever you'd call the old UKIP  and this new Brexit Party.

I think you're a bit generous to Farage. I don't think he's far-right but he's happy to use quite far-right tropes to push his Euroscepticism and aligns himself with some quite odious politicians. 

[SpacedX]

34 minutes ago, Countryfox said:

 

He’s making a very obvious threat cus they will have to pay a bit more to get their wings and a few others bits in to their UK factories 

Just curious. Are you aware of the production process at Filton and the associated supply chain?

 

35 minutes ago, Countryfox said:

 I don’t really think they will uproot and move elsewhere ...   he is trying to affect how the government proceed ..   out of order.

No, business are asking for clarity in order to maintain operational efficiency and enable strategic planning. Why would a huge multinational concern continue to invest in plant susceptible to the economic uncertainty of a disorderly Brexit when it can consolidate in France and Germany? 

[Countryfox]

6 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

It's a bit more complicated than having to pay a bit more to acquire parts, I think.

 

Try having a look at this Airbus "Brexit Risk Assessment" to get some idea of the problems involved:  file:///C:/Users/User/Downloads/Brexit-Risk-Assessment-21-Jun-FINAL.pdf (at https://www.airbus.com/company/worldwide-presence/uk.html).

(It's quite short - and dates from last June)

 

Was just quoting what someone said on the news half an hour ago when I was having my dinner...  

 

Dare say it might be a bit more complicated but still believe that’s the long and the short of it ...  dent in profits. 

 

Luckily for these organisations they can ‘hint’ how bad things might be when knowing that is very unlikely to happen to try and get what they want ...   whereas if we say hint at the possibility of a no deal brexit to get a better deal, even if it will not be allowed to happen ...   everyone jumps up and down and says we can’t do that.   

[RODNEY FERNIO]

3 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

Charged with 2 counts of attempted rape and multiple sexual assaults.  Nice.

Another boost for the electorate in trusting our elected members of parliament.

 

Alex Samonella , Vaz, Janner, Cyril Smith etc etc

[Countryfox]

3 minutes ago, Line-X said:

Just curious. Are you aware of the production process at Filton and the associated supply chain?

 

No, business are asking for clarity in order to maintain operational efficiency and enable strategic planning. Why would a huge multinational concern continue to invest in plant susceptible to the economic uncertainty of a disorderly Brexit when it can consolidate in France and Germany? 

 No to the first bit.

 

Of course they want clarity ...   but how can anyone do that when no one has a fookin clue what’s going to happen.    Still sounds like a threat to me.