Alf Bentley Posted 1 February 2019 Posted 1 February 2019 26 minutes ago, MattP said: The bit in bold is very debatable to say the least but I agree with the point in general we need to do everything we can to stop this, although I do fear if what @Izzy is saying has any truth and depth to it we probably need to be preparing for that situation anyway. Hard Border or not we need to be ready for this. There has been an upsurge in paramiltary activity over the last few years so it shouldn't come as any surprise - https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/12/northern-ireland-punishment-attacks-rise-60-in-four-years My own opinion is that the Good Friday agreement was necessary given out of control the situation had become, but it is also a sticking plaster as there will be no end to the campaign for a united Ireland and no end to those who want Northern Ireland to remain British, the eventual outcome of this is always going to be a referendum and those opinions will have to come to a head, as soon as that happens and the result delivered I fail to see how it passes without trouble. Obviously though it goes without saying, British government policy and the democratic mandate given to parliament cannot change because of the threat of violence, whether that's the IRA, ISIS, the far left or the far-right. Long time, no hear.... Depressing that article about punishment beatings within Republican and Loyalist communities - and the news of other isolated incidents (riots in summer, Derry car bomb etc.). Preventing an escalation will be partly a policing an issue - so I hope any relaxation of police cuts makes N. Ireland a priority. Even if a Brexit deal is approved soon, the way it has dominated the political agenda for 2 years has impacted multiple policy areas, including N. Ireland. Getting Stormont up and running again must be a priority very soon - though no easy task when Brexit will continue to dominate the agenda, even if a deal is agreed, and when the Govt depends on the support of the DUP to survive. A No Deal / hard border scenario really must be avoided, though, given the risk of escalation it represents....might not be a major problem, but it might and any significant return to violence would be tragic for us all. Am I right in thinking that the UK and Irish govts would have to agree to a border poll - or there has to be some clear evidence that it's wanted? If so, Sinn Fein calls for a poll at this stage might be largely rhetoric to please their support base. I cannot imagine that there'd be a majority for reunification now - or that Sinn Fein would want a poll that they'd clearly lose and that would stir up extremists on both sides. I don't like SF as a party, but they're not idiots. I cannot see the Republic of Ireland agreeing to a border poll either, unless the situation is much changed: e.g. a massive switch in favour of reunification due to a disastrous Brexit outcome. Don't disagree with your other comments. Hopefully there'll be no reunification referendum at least until there has been more integration between communities in the North and stable devolved politics has been restored (i.e. a good few years).
Mark 'expert' Lawrenson Posted 1 February 2019 Posted 1 February 2019 23 minutes ago, MattP said: Polling indicates he's doing fine... At the minute he's playing a perfect game, making sure he doesn't give any help or momentum to those who want to block Brexit but also making it appear he opposes the Tory Brexit parliament could pass. He knows he's the only alternative to the Tories so he's banking on those pro Remain youngsters still backing him when polling day comws whilst also keeping the leave votes to hold the 26-30 seats he'll also need in the north to get into office. Electorally the biggest problem for him could be Venezuela rather than Brexit given the support he has given the regime. No my point is if they had a decent leader they’d be doing better than fine.
Alf Bentley Posted 1 February 2019 Posted 1 February 2019 14 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said: Not really. You can only cut so much from a small amount of central funding -the fact is that Northern councils have a continue to receive a lot more from central Government. The point is that they have cut a lot more from councils representing poorer areas than they have from richer areas. That was a political choice. Likewise, cutting corporation tax and cutting higher-rate tax during a period of (partly self-enforced) austerity were political choices. Of course, Northern councils (or, at least, councils for poorer areas - not a straight N/S issue) will still receive more than councils for richer areas. But that's a pretty meaningless statement. It's like saying "the rich pay more tax than the poor" - often (if not always) true, but to be expected given the disparity of income/resources. The issue is trends in who pays more/less tax and in who receives more/less funds. In both cases, while making cuts across the board, in comparative terms the Tory Govt has been redistributing from the poor to the rich. It's what they always do (overall). Indeed, it's what they mainly exist to do - to serve "their people" (big corporations and the comparatively wealthy), while conning a few other mugs to vote for them with tales of patriotism, lies about "socialists" and the EU, bullshit about public services etc. Not expecting you to agree with me, of course! Must work...
Guest MattP Posted 1 February 2019 Posted 1 February 2019 54 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said: Long time, no hear.... Depressing that article about punishment beatings within Republican and Loyalist communities - and the news of other isolated incidents (riots in summer, Derry car bomb etc.). Preventing an escalation will be partly a policing an issue - so I hope any relaxation of police cuts makes N. Ireland a priority. Even if a Brexit deal is approved soon, the way it has dominated the political agenda for 2 years has impacted multiple policy areas, including N. Ireland. Getting Stormont up and running again must be a priority very soon - though no easy task when Brexit will continue to dominate the agenda, even if a deal is agreed, and when the Govt depends on the support of the DUP to survive. A No Deal / hard border scenario really must be avoided, though, given the risk of escalation it represents....might not be a major problem, but it might and any significant return to violence would be tragic for us all. Am I right in thinking that the UK and Irish govts would have to agree to a border poll - or there has to be some clear evidence that it's wanted? If so, Sinn Fein calls for a poll at this stage might be largely rhetoric to please their support base. I cannot imagine that there'd be a majority for reunification now - or that Sinn Fein would want a poll that they'd clearly lose and that would stir up extremists on both sides. I don't like SF as a party, but they're not idiots. I cannot see the Republic of Ireland agreeing to a border poll either, unless the situation is much changed: e.g. a massive switch in favour of reunification due to a disastrous Brexit outcome. Don't disagree with your other comments. Hopefully there'll be no reunification referendum at least until there has been more integration between communities in the North and stable devolved politics has been restored (i.e. a good few years). Family bereavement unfortunately, tough time and I had no desire to come on here and argue politics. I read the GFA a long time ago so I can't quote it exactly but there is definitely something in it along the lines of having a referendum if polls consistently showed that there was now majority support for a change in the situation, I have no idea though who decides how and in which way this is implemented. (I think this was the reason many Unionists were against it. Section 1. Status of Northern Ireland. It is hereby declared that Northern Ireland in its entirety remains part of the United Kingdom and shall not cease to be so without the consent of a majority of the people of Northern Ireland voting in a poll held for the purposes of this section in accordance with Schedule 1. But if the wish expressed by a majority in such a poll is that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland, the Secretary of State shall lay before Parliament such proposals to give effect to that wish as may be agreed between Her Majesty’s Government in the United Kingdom and the Government of Ireland. […] Schedule 1 The Secretary of State may by order direct the holding of a poll for the purposes of section 1 on a date specified in the order. Subject to paragraph 3, the Secretary of State shall exercise the power under paragraph 1 if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland. The Secretary of State shall not make an order under paragraph 1 earlier than seven years after the holding of a previous poll under this Schedule.[15] We do need generations to pass to have any sort of stability but sadly most reports I read now seem to imply that a lot of the tensions and troubles is from the younger generations and with something as fragile as this one death could bring it all back. That's why is absolutely imperative a solution is found, if the groups do restart this conflict it's the job of our elected poliuticains to make sure they can't be able to justify it from decisions they have made. When you look at a map of the Remain and Leave vote you could even end up with a "Northern/Eastern, Northern Ireland" in the event of a referendum with a victory for uniting Ireland - I doubt these overtly loyalists communities would just sit back and let it happen.
Heathrow fox Posted 1 February 2019 Posted 1 February 2019 1 hour ago, Mark 'expert' Lawrenson said: No my point is if they had a decent leader they’d be doing better than fine. So who would be this decent pro leave leader then?
purpleronnie Posted 1 February 2019 Posted 1 February 2019 32 minutes ago, MattP said: Family bereavement unfortunately, tough time and I had no desire to come on here and argue politics. Sorry to hear that Matt.
Alf Bentley Posted 1 February 2019 Posted 1 February 2019 9 minutes ago, MattP said: Family bereavement unfortunately, tough time and I had no desire to come on here and argue politics. I read the GFA a long time ago so I can't quote it exactly but there is definitely something in it along the lines of having a referendum if polls consistently showed that there was now majority support for a change in the situation, I have no idea though who decides how and in which way this is implemented. (I think this was the reason many Unionists were against it. Section 1. Status of Northern Ireland. It is hereby declared that Northern Ireland in its entirety remains part of the United Kingdom and shall not cease to be so without the consent of a majority of the people of Northern Ireland voting in a poll held for the purposes of this section in accordance with Schedule 1. But if the wish expressed by a majority in such a poll is that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland, the Secretary of State shall lay before Parliament such proposals to give effect to that wish as may be agreed between Her Majesty’s Government in the United Kingdom and the Government of Ireland. […] Schedule 1 The Secretary of State may by order direct the holding of a poll for the purposes of section 1 on a date specified in the order. Subject to paragraph 3, the Secretary of State shall exercise the power under paragraph 1 if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland. The Secretary of State shall not make an order under paragraph 1 earlier than seven years after the holding of a previous poll under this Schedule.[15] We do need generations to pass to have any sort of stability but sadly most reports I read now seem to imply that a lot of the tensions and troubles is from the younger generations and with something as fragile as this one death could bring it all back. That's why is absolutely imperative a solution is found, if the groups do restart this conflict it's the job of our elected poliuticains to make sure they can't be able to justify it from decisions they have made. When you look at a map of the Remain and Leave vote you could even end up with a "Northern/Eastern, Northern Ireland" in the event of a referendum with a victory for uniting Ireland - I doubt these overtly loyalists communities would just sit back and let it happen. Sorry to hear about the family bereavement - and thanks for posting that quotation. From that, it sounds as if the Secretary of State alone decides whether a majority vote for reunification seems likely. If so, I cannot imagine the UK Govt agreeing to a referendum in the near future. In practice, I presume that if there was clear evidence of majority support (e.g. a clear vote at Stormont) then it would happen. I presume the RoI would express views behind closed doors, too - and such views would oppose a poll now, I'm sure. The 7-year minimum gap between one referendum and the next is interesting and sensible. That tends to confirm my view that Sinn Fein's calls for a referendum are purely for internal party consumption. They must know that (a) They won't get a poll now; and (b) If they did, they'd lose it - and have to wait at least another 7 years (quite apart from the likely conflict that would be caused). Their chances of getting reunification are much higher if they wait a while: the demographics are working in their favour (Catholics will soon be a majority) and, being cynical, Brexit might work in their favour if it goes badly. Personally, I hope everyone just gives it at least 10-20 years before even considering it, unless opinions over there change dramatically. Stability and better inter-community integration is what's needed in the short/medium-term. Your last point about the internal division within N. Ireland is correct. All the border constituencies voted Remain by a large margin, while the Leave strongholds were mainly in the East (parts of Belfast, Antrim, rural east etc.), apart from Catholic areas like West Belfast and liberal middle-class mixed/protestant areas like County Down. Ironic, in a way, as when partition was first discussed pre-1922 there was talk of N. Ireland only comprising 3-4 counties (the strongly protestant/unionist areas) but this was expanded to include areas like Derry and border areas, with a large Catholic population even then, as the feeling was that a 3-4 county NI would have been economically non-viable.
Guest MattP Posted 1 February 2019 Posted 1 February 2019 9 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said: Sorry to hear about the family bereavement - and thanks for posting that quotation. From that, it sounds as if the Secretary of State alone decides whether a majority vote for reunification seems likely. If so, I cannot imagine the UK Govt agreeing to a referendum in the near future. In practice, I presume that if there was clear evidence of majority support (e.g. a clear vote at Stormont) then it would happen. I presume the RoI would express views behind closed doors, too - and such views would oppose a poll now, I'm sure. The 7-year minimum gap between one referendum and the next is interesting and sensible. That tends to confirm my view that Sinn Fein's calls for a referendum are purely for internal party consumption. They must know that (a) They won't get a poll now; and (b) If they did, they'd lose it - and have to wait at least another 7 years (quite apart from the likely conflict that would be caused). Their chances of getting reunification are much higher if they wait a while: the demographics are working in their favour (Catholics will soon be a majority) and, being cynical, Brexit might work in their favour if it goes badly. Personally, I hope everyone just gives it at least 10-20 years before even considering it, unless opinions over there change dramatically. Stability and better inter-community integration is what's needed in the short/medium-term. Your last point about the internal division within N. Ireland is correct. All the border constituencies voted Remain by a large margin, while the Leave strongholds were mainly in the East (parts of Belfast, Antrim, rural east etc.), apart from Catholic areas like West Belfast and liberal middle-class mixed/protestant areas like County Down. Ironic, in a way, as when partition was first discussed pre-1922 there was talk of N. Ireland only comprising 3-4 counties (the strongly protestant/unionist areas) but this was expanded to include areas like Derry and border areas, with a large Catholic population even then, as the feeling was that a 3-4 county NI would have been economically non-viable. Thank you. That's my reading of the document as well and I wouldn't want to be the ministers in charge of overseeing and implementing a referendum on this issue, it would be a campaign far more ferocious and vicious than anything we have seen before. Figures on the demographics are here and we could even have a Catholic majority by 2021, in twenty years it will be a comfortable majority - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-43823506 Under the GFA agreement, barring some economic catastrophe south of the border I think reunification is inevitable. I don't see how the minority protestant community can avoid it. I'm trying to imagine the situation of a united Ireland and the fallout could be quite terrible (We would have to respect the result of it and carry it out as we are legally to do so) - you would have a country where one small block of it would not only refuse to recognise it but actively hate the place they are living in. The loyalist community would almost certainly re-engage in active terrorism and we could even have a situation similar to the one in Ukraine now (without the foreign interference). It could make the divisions we have over Brexit look like a romance. I would imagine the rest of the UK would have to offer safe passage to those from Northern Ireland who wanted it. I think Arlene Foster is on record as saying she couldn't live there. I've always said we should do a trade, they can have the six counties back overnight providing they agree to take Liverpool with them. (That is supposed to be a joke before anyone jumps on me)
Alf Bentley Posted 1 February 2019 Posted 1 February 2019 4 minutes ago, MattP said: Thank you. That's my reading of the document as well and I wouldn't want to be the ministers in charge of overseeing and implementing a referendum on this issue, it would be a campaign far more ferocious and vicious than anything we have seen before. Figures on the demographics are here and we could even have a Catholic majority by 2021, in twenty years it will be a comfortable majority - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-43823506 Under the GFA agreement, barring some economic catastrophe south of the border I think reunification is inevitable. I don't see how the minority protestant community can avoid it. I'm trying to imagine the situation of a united Ireland and the fallout could be quite terrible (We would have to respect the result of it and carry it out as we are legally to do so) - you would have a country where one small block of it would not only refuse to recognise it but actively hate the place they are living in. The loyalist community would almost certainly re-engage in active terrorism and we could even have a situation similar to the one in Ukraine now (without the foreign interference). It could make the divisions we have over Brexit look like a romance. I would imagine the rest of the UK would have to offer safe passage to those from Northern Ireland who wanted it. I think Arlene Foster is on record as saying she couldn't live there. I've always said we should do a trade, they can have the six counties back overnight providing they agree to take Liverpool with them. (That is supposed to be a joke before anyone jumps on me) Unless other events intervene, I'm not sure that there'll be a majority for reunification in the north even after Catholics become the majority. There has always been a substantial minority of Catholics who opposed reunification for reasons such as the lack of an Irish NHS. I imagine others would continue to oppose it if they thought that it would unleash violent conflict. There's also the issue of the stance of the Irish Republic. Even if there was majority support for reunification in the north, I imagine that, behind the scenes at least, they'd be pushing for delay if they thought they'd be inheriting a dysfunctional society and/or a civil war scenario. The Irish Republic has changed a lot over recent decades. Unionist fears that "Home Rule means Rome Rule" used to be justified but the RoI has become a much more secular country now, not least due to all the scandals involving the Catholic Church. Of course, I appreciate that dyed-in-the-wool Loyalists won't see it that way....which is why a longer delay and closer, more stable relationships are a good idea before even considering it. If it ever happens, I agree that the UK should offer Unionists help to move to GB. More to the point, the RoI should offer them protection of minority rights if Ireland does reunify. Funny enough, I recently discovered that one of my sets of great-grandparents signed the Ulster Covenant pre-WW1, when legislation for Irish Home Rule was passed - promising to oppose this by all means necessary. Most of my ancestors were Irish Catholics (plus a few English/Scots) but one family line were Northern Irish Protestants/Presbyterians.....they'd have been very disappointed that their daughter (my grandmother) married a Catholic and converted - and that many of her descendants are now atheists!
Mark 'expert' Lawrenson Posted 1 February 2019 Posted 1 February 2019 59 minutes ago, Heathrow fox said: So who would be this decent pro leave leader then? Leave, stay, it’s irrelevant to my point, but as you brought it up the current Government is a shambles and Labour would be far better placed if Corbyn wasn’t leader of the Labour Party, I’d still feel the same about him regardless of Brexit,someone like Angela Rayner would be better, My opinion is that Labour are being held back by Corbyn, with the Government being so weak this is a great opportunity for the Labour Party.
Salisbury Fox Posted 1 February 2019 Posted 1 February 2019 6 hours ago, Lionator said: This is why avoiding no deal is so important. The Good Friday Agreement is one of the most important documents in our history. John Major, Tony Blair and yes even backbenchers like Corbyn (!!) helped to bring relative peace when it looked impossible for years. If there is any sort of hard border then there will be major issues and we will be back to the dark days and with the modern day challenges already here and around the world, it's the LAST thing we need. I cannot believe that our politicians would put us in that position again. Sorry can't let that go unchallenged. It is absolute garbage about Corbyn bringing relative peace. Corbyn was only interested in a united Ireland and I would imagine still is. The SDLP's Seamus Mallon is on record as saying 'I never heard anyone mention Corbyn at all. He very clearly took the side of the IRA, and that was incompatible, in my opinion, with working for peace'. I mean even Diane Abbott refuses to say she regrets calling for the IRA to defeat the British state but then she did have a different hairstyle at the time.
Countryfox Posted 1 February 2019 Posted 1 February 2019 Life ban seems a bit harsh ... from what I heard it was just handbags ...
Lionator Posted 1 February 2019 Posted 1 February 2019 2 hours ago, Salisbury Fox said: Sorry can't let that go unchallenged. It is absolute garbage about Corbyn bringing relative peace. Corbyn was only interested in a united Ireland and I would imagine still is. The SDLP's Seamus Mallon is on record as saying 'I never heard anyone mention Corbyn at all. He very clearly took the side of the IRA, and that was incompatible, in my opinion, with working for peace'. I mean even Diane Abbott refuses to say she regrets calling for the IRA to defeat the British state but then she did have a different hairstyle at the time. I'm not excusing some of things that he's been accused of doing, siding with people associated to the IRA obviously isn't great however to bring peace, somebody had to get them to sit down and he contributed to that. There are other people who had FAR more of an impact but he's a relevant person in 2019 espeically given what may/may not happen.
Salisbury Fox Posted 1 February 2019 Posted 1 February 2019 Just now, Lionator said: I'm not excusing some of things that he's been accused of doing, siding with people associated to the IRA obviously isn't great however to bring peace, somebody had to get them to sit down and he contributed to that. There are other people who had FAR more of an impact but he's a relevant person in 2019 espeically given what may/may not happen. I disagree, but will leave it there.
Toddybad Posted 1 February 2019 Posted 1 February 2019 7 hours ago, MattP said: This is spot on. Why would a Leave MP who believes in Brexit, in a Leave voting constiuency, go and tell his people that he is turning down much needed money for his region so he doesn't have to vote for Brexit? - it makes no sense whatsoever. I do think there is some politics in this decision though, assuming the trends of the current situations continue in the main parties, long term I can only see more working class seats going Tory and more middle class ones going Labour, there might be an element of calucation in this but is that really any worse than Labour promising things that benefit the middle classes more like free tuition fees? I don't think it is. There no argument I can see to explain why, if you have two poor constituencies, one should continue to suffer the effects of austerity simply because it's MP does not believe TM has struck a deal that can be supported.
leicsmac Posted 2 February 2019 Posted 2 February 2019 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46510957 How very MAD.
Innovindil Posted 2 February 2019 Posted 2 February 2019 Don't usually go for the whole "it's this year we should be over this shit" posts... But seriously, it's 2019 and I'm reading a story about a ****ing voodoo witch doctor mutilating a child in London. How the **** is this shit still happening?
Guest MattP Posted 2 February 2019 Posted 2 February 2019 1 hour ago, Innovindil said: Don't usually go for the whole "it's this year we should be over this shit" posts... But seriously, it's 2019 and I'm reading a story about a ****ing voodoo witch doctor mutilating a child in London. How the **** is this shit still happening? Because for years we turned a blind eye to it in the interest of keeping the peace and being as 'tolerant' as possible.
Izzy Posted 2 February 2019 Posted 2 February 2019 Mmmmm.... This Brexit lark is beginning to get a bit real. I've got a client who's the MD of a major fresh produce company that supplies vegetables to the big supermarkets. I was supposed to be facilitating a two day off-site with his senior team at the end of March but he's just cancelled it "Because of the potential Brexit implications" I'm not sure if it's just a convenient excuse or if it's a genuine concern until I call him next week. Either way, it's cost me money and I ain't happy about it.
bovril Posted 2 February 2019 Posted 2 February 2019 Just now, Izzy said: Mmmmm.... This Brexit lark is beginning to get a bit real. I've got a client who's the MD of a major fresh produce company that supplies vegetables to the big supermarkets. I was supposed to be facilitating a two day off-site with his senior team at the end of March but he's just cancelled it "Because of the potential Brexit implications" I'm not sure if it's just a convenient excuse or if it's a genuine concern until I call him next week. Either way, it's cost me money and I ain't happy about it. It's always been a bit real.
Izzy Posted 2 February 2019 Posted 2 February 2019 4 minutes ago, bovril said: It's always been a bit real. First time it’s got real for me personally and impacted on my work and finances. Up until now it’s just been noise.
bovril Posted 2 February 2019 Posted 2 February 2019 Just now, Izzy said: First time it’s got real for me personally and impacted on my work and finances. Up until now it’s just been noise. I am surprised how disconnected so many people seem to be from the reality of it.
Spiritwalker Posted 2 February 2019 Posted 2 February 2019 1 hour ago, Toddybad said: Well 61% of them voted for Brexit so I'm sure all those out of work former Nissan employees will take comfort from us being out of the EU.
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