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[Bobby Hundreds]

2 minutes ago, MattP said:

Given Jeremy Hunt is the other option which also means Jeremy Corbyn becomes almost certain to be PM I'd say no.

 

 

I think Boris gets obliterated at a GE, could even lose his 5,000 majority seat. 

[Guest MattP]

8 minutes ago, Bobby Hundreds said:

I think Boris gets obliterated at a GE, could even lose his 5,000 majority seat. 

Well the only polling we have from Comres shows him doing far better than any other candidate. The evidence we have is he is a vote winner, given he won MOL twice and led the Leave campaign.

 

If he was PM and in any sort of bother in Uxbridge I'd imagine he moves to a safer seat. 

 

What sort of loss do you see as being obliterated and who do you think he'll lose the seats to?

[Bobby Hundreds]

1 minute ago, MattP said:

What sort of loss do you see as being obliterated and who do you think he'll lose the seats to?

Brexit party & Lib Dems predominantly. 

 

If he gets the job, he might only last 18 months; Brexit will bury him. 

[Guest MattP]

4 minutes ago, Bobby Hundreds said:

Brexit party & Lib Dems predominantly. 

 

If he gets the job, he might only last 18 months; Brexit will bury him. 

He shouldn't really lose both, it should be either or.

 

I think he'll lose votes in the south but gain then in the north and midlands - how that works out in a GE though I have no idea.

 

I think whether he wins a majority or not will depend on Brexit party voting.

[Foxin_Mad]

Brexit is a poisoned chalice. I just cant see how anyone can get a no-deal through parliament without a landslide General election win, so I just don't see how he can be promising 'do or die' Brexit. Labour the Lib Dems and SNP will vote against it, and probably most 'deals' too, its very hard to see it working out. 

 

I think Boris is trying to keep quiet about stuff as to not making self look at muppet whilst making himself look a muppet at the same time. Part of the reason people seem to like him is because he is a bumbling British baffon, no-one likes are lying charlatan the leader of the opposition already has that one covered. 

 

 

[Guest MattP]

7 minutes ago, Foxin_Mad said:

Brexit is a poisoned chalice. I just cant see how anyone can get a no-deal through parliament without a landslide General election win, so I just don't see how he can be promising 'do or die' Brexit. Labour the Lib Dems and SNP will vote against it, and probably most 'deals' too, its very hard to see it working out. 

The new PM is under no obligation to request a further extension beyond October 31st. 

 

Whether parliament then brings down the government is the big question if he refuses to.

 

It might even end up with the EU kicking us out on No Deal, though unlikely given everyone that threatens to happen they grant an extension. 

[Alf Bentley]

24 minutes ago, MattP said:

Given Jeremy Hunt is the other option which also means Jeremy Corbyn becomes almost certain to be PM I'd say no.

 

It is completely bizarre though - I just wish he would stop bullshitting, we all know he's a bullshitter so he doesn't need to keep doing it to make sure, his refusal to answer the question from Ferrari yesterday was just plain weird.

 

Just be Boris - I'd be happy for him to just say I'm going to play the fool, take the piss and win elections whilst others do the work as I'm not competent enough. Then when asked if he's being serious just follow it up by saying at least I'm brighter and more qualified  than the alternative leading the Labour party.

 

He still has to win for the sake of Brexit and the Tory party but he's making me hold my head in my times watching him.

 

He's like a horse in the Gold Cup on the bridle still managing to clatter through every fence on his way to victory.

 

Yes, I imagine that even Tory members alarmed at his shockingly poor performance over recent weeks will mostly hold their noses and vote for him, because of their Brexit fixation.

 

Though, IF his "leave in October, Deal or No Deal" policy triggers a general election with Brexit undone, he MIGHT be the leader who destroys both Brexit and the Tory Party, particularly if continues to behave so strangely (big IF and big MIGHT, I know).

 

 Meanwhile, interesting Brexit poll figures (Express, but originally Times): https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1145413/brexit-news-eu-boris-johnson-jeremy-hunt-tory-leadership-european-union

- No Deal 28%

- May's Deal 13%

- Soft Brexit (SM/CU) 16%

- Revoke & Remain 43%

 

21 minutes ago, Bobby Hundreds said:

I think Boris gets obliterated at a GE, could even lose his 5,000 majority seat. 

 

Hard to predict the outcome of a general election with Brexit undone. Too many major factors remain unclear....

- What stance would the Brexit Party adopt & would they stand candidates everywhere or only selectively?

- What will Labour's stance be by then?

 

At the moment, it looks as if the Tories lose a lot of votes to the Brexit Party & a few to the Lib Dems......but Labour lose a lot of votes to the Lib Dems/Greens & a few to the Brexit Party.

 

Given the balance of forces by geographical area & the FPTP system, if that remained the situation, the Tories could easily gain Labour seats in London, the North & Midlands, while losing seats to Lab, LD & Brexit Party in the shires.

I imagine that Labour would also lose a handful to the LDs & a couple to the Greens, while the SNP would wipe out both Lab and Con in Scotland....

 

As for Uxbridge, Labour got that close in 2017 with the mass support of Remainers and young people.....neither likely to happen to the same extent in 2019, unless Labour becomes an overtly pro-Remain party. I'd expect Boris to increase his personal majority in Uxbridge, unfortunately......unless he has a complete meltdown (which does look possible, tbf).

 

Funny the vagaries of politics.....Hard Left MPs have historically taken turns at the "impossible task" of standing for the Labour leadership. If it had been McDonnell's turn, instead of Corbyn's, would we now have a "reluctantly pro-referendum" Labour policy - and would that mean Labour was on course for Govt, if Brexit by October is blocked?

[urban.spaceman]

16 hours ago, Grebfromgrebland said:

This makes me quite sad and fearful for the future. It was a Billy Connolly sketch FFS.

 

10 hours ago, WigstonWanderer said:

It appears that it is becoming illegal to point out that the emperor has no clothes. We are really losing something with this trend, and it makes me fearful for the future of free speech and the dystopian consequences.

I refuse, point blank, to ever follow anyone else’s blasphemy laws. If people get offended, so ****ing what. Go an cry at home, nobody else should care. It’s getting to the point where I can genuinely imagine police asking a “victim” to show them on the dolly where these words hurt you.

 

This is absolute madness, and we need to resist it.

[urban.spaceman]

Also:

 

[Guest MattP]

9 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

Though, IF his "leave in October, Deal or No Deal" policy triggers a general election with Brexit undone, he MIGHT be the leader who destroys both Brexit and the Tory Party, particularly if continues to behave so strangely (big IF and big MIGHT, I know).

 

 Meanwhile, interesting Brexit poll figures (Express, but originally Times): https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1145413/brexit-news-eu-boris-johnson-jeremy-hunt-tory-leadership-european-union

- No Deal 28%

- May's Deal 13%

- Soft Brexit (SM/CU) 16%

- Revoke & Remain 43%

If the Conservative party is destroyed over this I won't shed a tear at all - it will be fully deserved and hopefully a patriotic pro-leave party will emerge from it that's also far more friendly towards the working/middle class and as far away from the Bullingdon club types of Cameron and Osborne as possible. There will be a huge gap in the market for that sort of political party.

 

That polling does shock me, 43% of the country genuinely think you can just ignore the biggest political mandate ever given?? They can't be thinking about it properly. 

 

(Edit: just realised no "2nd ref" option so I'd imagine they are in that 43%, makes more sense now)

Edited 26 June 2019 by MattP

[Foxin_Mad]

6 minutes ago, MattP said:

The new PM is under no obligation to request a further extension beyond October 31st. 

 

Whether parliament then brings down the government is the big question if he refuses to.

 

It might even end up with the EU kicking us out on No Deal, though unlikely given everyone that threatens to happen they grant an extension. 

They are not no, but I think it would be unwise and perhaps undemocratic not to put it to parliaments consideration.

 

I just cant see a way forward with the current numbers. Really Boris needs a mandate to do what he is suggesting. No one has ever had a mandate for No Deal as far a I am concerned. 

[Bobby Hundreds]

1 minute ago, MattP said:

That polling does shock me, 43% of the country genuinely think you can just ignore the biggest political mandate ever given?? They can't be thinking about it properly. 

A 2% swing isn't really that big.

[Foxin_Mad]

1 minute ago, Bobby Hundreds said:

A 2% swing isn't really that big.

Also of the 52% that voted leave how many of them actually wanted a 'no deal Brexit'? 

 

Say its half, that's definitely not a mandate to do it when 75% disagree! 

[Grebfromgrebland]

Many billionaires have invested hundreds of millions over many years to get this close to brexit. 

 

I very doubt they'll give up now they're so close.  We have reached the point where politicians will say and do anything to get it over the line.

 

The prize is just too great for them to let it slip now.

 

Just listen to the Tories they have literally lost their values and morals in virtually all areas.

[Kopfkino]

7 minutes ago, MattP said:

That polling does shock me, 43% of the country genuinely think you can just ignore the biggest political mandate ever given?? They can't be thinking about it properly. 

 

(Edit: just realised no "2nd ref" option so I'd imagine they are in that 43%, makes more sense now)

Nah I think it makes sense, probably cos I'm now in that 43%. We've ended up back at a point where it looks increasingly like a binary choice between no deal and no Brexit so it really is no surprise that people would choose the no Brexit despite the 'mandate'. The political classes will have to live with the consequences of not delivering but now common sense should prevail and time should be called on Brexit. 

[Alf Bentley]

4 minutes ago, MattP said:

 

That polling does shock me, 43% of the country genuinely think you can just ignore the biggest political mandate ever given?? They can't be thinking about it properly. 

 

Biggest voter turnout ever, possibly (apart from the 1992 general election, I think), and a clear mandate for Leave.....but otherwise very imprecise and a very narrow mandate.

 

Mind you, I've always seen Revoke as an outcome to avoid unless justified by a massive shift in public opinion (hasn't happened) or a real emergency: e.g. anti-democratic manoeuvring to get No Deal without parliamentary consent.

Just reversing the 2016 vote would cause mayhem, which is why I reluctantly supported a Soft Brexit deal (and would do again if it became viable), and now see a second referendum as much, much better than revoking.

 

Mind you, there is polarisation on both sides. On the other side, we have large numbers of Tory voters who would apparently be happy to see their economy, their party and their country destroyed if only they can get Brexit....

 

Vaguely connected issue: when was the last time you heard immigration mentioned? It was arguably the most important reason cited for Brexit (though not the only one), yet seems to have fallen off the agenda completely.

 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, urban.spaceman said:

 

I refuse, point blank, to ever follow anyone else’s blasphemy laws. If people get offended, so ****ing what. Go an cry at home, nobody else should care. It’s getting to the point where I can genuinely imagine police asking a “victim” to show them on the dolly where these words hurt you.

 

This is absolute madness, and we need to resist it.

 

But what if your offending them makes them depressed?

Edited 26 June 2019 by Guest

[yorkie1999]

18 minutes ago, FIF said:

 

But what if your offedning them makes them depressed?

Survival of the fittest.

[Alf Bentley]

58 minutes ago, MattP said:

 

That polling does shock me, 43% of the country genuinely think you can just ignore the biggest political mandate ever given?? They can't be thinking about it properly. 

 

(Edit: just realised no "2nd ref" option so I'd imagine they are in that 43%, makes more sense now)

 

The Express article specifically refers to revoking, not a referendum.

Either the Express has distorted the original findings/questions from the Times poll, or there was no "2nd referendum" option to focus minds on what happens now, as a referendum would require an extension? 

 

Interesting that if Revoke is the only Remain option, 57% support some form of Brexit.......but, of course, most Brexit supporters won't even accept May's Deal (13%), never mind Soft Brexit (16%).......it's "Cherry-Picking Unicorn Brexit or No Deal". 

[Ali Begbie]

27 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

The Express article specifically refers to revoking, not a referendum.

Either the Express has distorted the original findings/questions from the Times poll, or there was no "2nd referendum" option to focus minds on what happens now, as a referendum would require an extension? 

 

Interesting that if Revoke is the only Remain option, 57% support some form of Brexit.......but, of course, most Brexit supporters won't even accept May's Deal (13%), never mind Soft Brexit (16%).......it's "Cherry-Picking Unicorn Brexit or No Deal". 

It was a YouGov survey:

 

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/2v9b2rv2gl/TheTimes_190618_BrexitResults_w.pdf

 

Interesting reading. The Express have just (shock horror) interpreted it to their own liking. Revoke isn't mentioned, and weirdly neither is referendum.

 

So 57% want some form of Brexit - but 59% want to stay in the CU / Single Market.

 

 

[Buce]

2 hours ago, MattP said:

If the Conservative party is destroyed over this I won't shed a tear at all - it will be fully deserved and hopefully a patriotic pro-leave party will emerge from it that's also far more friendly towards the working/middle class and as far away from the Bullingdon club types of Cameron and Osborne as possible. There will be a huge gap in the market for that sort of political party.

 

That polling does shock me, 43% of the country genuinely think you can just ignore the biggest political mandate ever given?? They can't be thinking about it properly. 

 

(Edit: just realised no "2nd ref" option so I'd imagine they are in that 43%, makes more sense now)

 

An interesting choice of words.

 

What do you envisage this 'patriotic' party would be like? What would their policies be?

Edited 26 June 2019 by Buce

[Ali Begbie]

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/2v9b2rv2gl/TheTimes_190618_BrexitResults_w.pdf

 

Also interesting if you do a bit of data digging on the latest YouGov survey.

 

9% of those who voted Leave in 2016 now see staying in the EU as their preferred option. Wow.

[Carl the Llama]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

That polling does shock me, 43% of the country genuinely think you can just ignore the biggest political mandate ever given?? They can't be thinking about it properly. 

I'd be very surprised if no vote in human history has ever been won by a margin higher than 4%, in fact I'd assume that a 52-48 split constitutes one of the smallest margins of victory we've seen. Are you sure you're thinking about it properly?

[Facecloth]

I find it interesting that apparently you can't be patriotic and anti Brexit. I love this country and want what's best for it and everyone in it, and imo, which I think is being proven right, that's not Brexit.

[Buce]

No-deal Brexit could trigger flurry of profit warnings, say accountants

ICAEW tells MPs there could be ‘systemic’ impact on economic confidence if UK crashes out

 

Crashing out of the UK at Halloween could result in a “flurry of profit warnings” from publicly listed companies in November, MPs have been warned.

The Institute for Chartered Accountants for England and Wales (ICAEW) told MPs that this could have a “systemic” impact on the confidence in the British economy.

“I would like to have this on record, it is likely we may well see after November 1 a flurry of profit warnings from companies finding themselves in completely unprecedented circumstances,” Martin Manuzi, the regional director for Europe of the ICAEW told the Brexit select committee.

 

The ICAEW has about 100,000 members, including the big accountancy firms, which provide auditing for the UK’s biggest companies.

Manuzi said if there was a sudden “dislocation” in the market, public limited companies would be obliged to tell their shareholders.

“Things that we ask ourselves? What is the cumulative effect on market confidence of the issuing of such profit warnings, and a systemic lack of confidence can have massive macroeconomic impacts,” he said.

Giles Derrington, the head of Brexit policy at techUK, told the committee that the decline in investment in startups was having a damaging impact on the UK’s reputation as the obvious place for tech outside the US.

He told the committee that venture capital investment in the UK was falling by “about 58% in terms of the deals done” and Germany was now catching up with the UK’s previous position as the clear frontrunner in the sector.

The Brexit committee was hearing evidence about the impact of Brexit on the services sector, which accounts for 80% of the UK’s economy.

Manuzi denied his statements were part of “project fear” when challenged by two MPs.

“I’m not here to do scaremongering,” he said. His members had ‘“very deep concerns” about a loss of access to EU markets and it was very likely companies would be “looking again what their profit forecasts will be and they may well be issuing statements” if there was no Brexit deal.

Manuzi’s comments came a day after Boris Johnson said the UK would quit the EU on 31 October “do or die” if he became prime minister.

Manuzi said his members had been clear they did did not want a disorderly Brexit and still hoped the new prime minister would not plunge the UK into a no-deal departure.

MPs also heard that Brexit uncertainty was causing “reputational impact” on tech investment, one of the UK’s flagship sectors.

Derrington told the committee that a no-deal outcome would have “significant impact” on data flows, the ability to recruit talented people and “wider perceptional reputation damage to the UK as a place for the global tech centre to come and grow and develop”.

“UK might be the best place to invest, but it is no longer the only place to invest,” he said.

 

He said established firms were getting their funding but it was the “new, more risky innovative startups” that were vulnerable.

This alone was a concern as to attract tech investors, a country had to have the entire “ecosystem” of “very large multinationals, strong UK mid-tiers, successful growing firms and exciting startups working in tandem”.

“So if you lose one, the longer-term impact of that can cascade over five, 10 years.

“In an industry that moves very, very quickly, it’s then very hard to catch up,” he said.

He said France and Germany were making a big play for Brexit dividends in the tech centre and this was contributing to a decline in investment in the UK.

In 2018, the UK had “almost double” the tech venture capital of Germany, but year on year there had been a 20% decline for Britain and Germany had a 30% increase.

“The worry is that gap sufficiently closing that we are no longer the obvious global hub outside America,” he said.