Harvey Barnes

[OntarioFox]

1 hour ago, SafewayFox said:

It most definitely works but our scouting needs a revamp as been far from the lofty heights of previous.

 

Brighton have proven the model works, however, they’ve been a lot more proactive in South America and many other places.

 

Caicedo will go for silly money yet picked him up for peanuts, scarily they have another 3/4 sellable assets too.

I wonder if Brighton will fall into the same trap as ours if they start consistently getting European footy without breaking the top four?

 

A massive part of the problem has been us offering Champions League contracts to players for Europa League finishes. We never got over the line (thanks Brendan) and our gamble has blown up in our faces. Key players refused to sign contracts because (presumably) we were trying to slash their wages, having already told them they were top-four standard players and attracting interest from the likes of Tottenham, Arsenal, a newly minted Newcastle and Atletico Madrid.

 

I'd like to think they wont take the bait having seen what's happened to us.

Edited 5 May 2023 by OntarioFox

[Finnegan]

One bad season and Aston Villa are buying our best players? 

 

 

Smells like rubbish to me. Assume his agent is trying to get him a new deal or put his name around in case we go down. 

 

If we stay up and hire an even halfway decent manager in the summer then a move to Villa is sideways at absolute best. 

[BrummieFOX]

2 minutes ago, Finnegan said:

One bad season and Aston Villa are buying our best players? 

 

 

Smells like rubbish to me. Assume his agent is trying to get him a new deal or put his name around in case we go down. 

 

If we stay up and hire an even halfway decent manager in the summer then a move to Villa is sideways at absolute best. 

I'm not so confident, it definitely feels like we're going in opposite directions. They seem to be one of the most ambitious clubs in the league at the moment. They'll chuck loads of money at new players in the summer, who'd be joining an already good squad with a great manager. Looks like they're also bringing in Barca's sporting director. Unsure how that will go but either way it's a big move.

 

They'll be targeting top 6.

[Sampson]

17 minutes ago, OntarioFox said:

I wonder if Brighton will fall into the same trap as ours if they start consistently getting European footy without breaking the top four?

 

A massive part of the problem has been us offering Champions League contracts to players for Europa League finishes. We never got over the line (thanks Brendan) and our gamble has blown up in our faces. Key players refused to sign contracts because (presumably) we were trying to slash their wages, having already told them they were top-four standard players and attracting interest from the likes of Tottenham, Arsenal, a newly minted Newcastle and Atletico Madrid.

 

I'd like to think they wont take the bait having seen what's happened to us.

Of course they will. As Southampton did, as we did too. You can’t keep up the buy cheap and sell high model forever.

 

Eventually players start running down their contracts or the spine of your team gets old or jaded and you need a good £100m-£150m summer to sign 4 or 5 established names which is something we needed to do last summer and couldn’t and Southampton never did 2-3 seasons back and Brighton probably won’t do either.

 

That’s the main problem with the model, there comes a point where you do need to spend big on established names to replace your spine and clubs in that style won’t/can’t afford to do that. 
 

The likes of Dunk, Webster, Veltman, March and Gross who have been their spine for so long are all now in their late 20s or early 30s. They’ll start going past their peak in a season or twos time, then they’ll really struggle to have the big spending summer they need to replace that spine. Exactly as we did when Schmeichel, Morgan, Evans, Albrighton and Vardy started getting old and Ndidi got ruined by injuries.

Edited 5 May 2023 by Sampson

[An Sionnach]

45 minutes ago, Sampson said:

We all know he can be frustrating at times, but wingers who are guaranteed 10-20 goal contributions a season are really rare outside the “big 6”, can’t believe so many genuinely want this to happen.

At our level there is no such thing , and even at the very top there are almost none. If you count players like Barnes and Salah as wingers ( which I don't) you might find one or two. Wide midfielders who provide assists but score few are more common. We should give up on this silly wild goose chase.

[Finnegan]

5 minutes ago, BrummieFOX said:

I'm not so confident, it definitely feels like we're going in opposite directions. They seem to be one of the most ambitious clubs in the league at the moment. They'll chuck loads of money at new players in the summer, who'd be joining an already good squad with a great manager. Looks like they're also bringing in Barca's sporting director. Unsure how that will go but either way it's a big move.

 

They'll be targeting top 6.

 

Chucking money around rarely goes brilliantly and Barcelona's recent recruitment has been straight up hilarious so I'm not really sure that's an appointment that screams sense over substance. 

 

I genuinely think our supporters are largely over reacting to our season this year and the situation of the squad. Yes, we're at a cross roads and we need to go through a bit of transition but I really do think Rodgers was responsible for most of our ills over the last eighteen odd months and I'd expect the situation to improve. 

 

Whilst I think some clubs have caught us up in recruitment (Brighton, sorta Brentford, Palace to an extent?) rumours of our demise are also wildly exaggerated. 

 

Kristiansen and Daka both looked absolutely superb when they first came in and started to decline once the malaise of the squad and the mismanagement of Rodgers kicked in.

 

Soumare looked hideously managed right from the start and is showing real glimpses now of what we were expecting from him now he's got a coach who'll put his arm around him and give him some encouragement and actual man management. Faes has blown hot and cold but definitely looks to have improved a lot playing alongside Soyuncu with good guidance from JT. 

 

I think all four have still got a chance of being excellent purchases and really vindicating the recruitment at the club if we can actually get a coach in that values them and can lift the collective spirit of the squad. 

 

Add to them Iversen, JJ, Castagne, Faes, Souttar, KDH, Barnes, Iheanacho, etc are all contracted for a while yet. We've got dead weight leaving to clear up the wage bill, we didn't spend last summer, we've still got the majority of the Fofana money, we'll probably get 60 odd for Maddison. 

 

I just don't really see the doom and gloom. I don't think we're particularly heading backwards at all, if we stay up this year and are sensible in our selection of a coach I don't think top 7/8 should be beyond what we target next year and that's the same ball park Villa are going to be in. 

[Mickyblueeyes]

4 minutes ago, Finnegan said:

 

Chucking money around rarely goes brilliantly and Barcelona's recent recruitment has been straight up hilarious so I'm not really sure that's an appointment that screams sense over substance. 

 

I genuinely think our supporters are largely over reacting to our season this year and the situation of the squad. Yes, we're at a cross roads and we need to go through a bit of transition but I really do think Rodgers was responsible for most of our ills over the last eighteen odd months and I'd expect the situation to improve. 

 

Whilst I think some clubs have caught us up in recruitment (Brighton, sorta Brentford, Palace to an extent?) rumours of our demise are also wildly exaggerated. 

 

Kristiansen and Daka both looked absolutely superb when they first came in and started to decline once the malaise of the squad and the mismanagement of Rodgers kicked in.

 

Soumare looked hideously managed right from the start and is showing real glimpses now of what we were expecting from him now he's got a coach who'll put his arm around him and give him some encouragement and actual man management. Faes has blown hot and cold but definitely looks to have improved a lot playing alongside Soyuncu with good guidance from JT. 

 

I think all four have still got a chance of being excellent purchases and really vindicating the recruitment at the club if we can actually get a coach in that values them and can lift the collective spirit of the squad. 

 

Add to them Iversen, JJ, Castagne, Faes, Souttar, KDH, Barnes, Iheanacho, etc are all contracted for a while yet. We've got dead weight leaving to clear up the wage bill, we didn't spend last summer, we've still got the majority of the Fofana money, we'll probably get 60 odd for Maddison. 

 

I just don't really see the doom and gloom. I don't think we're particularly heading backwards at all, if we stay up this year and are sensible in our selection of a coach I don't think top 7/8 should be beyond what we target next year and that's the same ball park Villa are going to be in. 

I think the base of a good squad is there. The problem we've had with the January recruits is that a) they are young and inexperienced; and b) they've come into a team struggling severely with confidence. VK and Souttar have shown enough to suggest they have futures in this league. Iverson has the potential to mature into a Number 1 role (we need to be patient) and Soumare has developed another level since Smith came in. I know there are a lot of Daka critics. His last two games have been full of endeavour but not a lot of technical promise. However, he is out of position. Its like sticking Andy Cole on the RW. His finishing ability is very good. See Chelsea, Brighton, Forest and the Europa game where he got a hattrick - I've seen a striker trying without the ability before and they don't finish like that. I've still got hope for Daka and I think if he is trusted with a partner he works well with, he could be an asset. 

 

Kel is another, he deserves some sort of main role and with Maddison likely to go, he could fill in a role he prefers - with Daka that could work quite well. The Brighton away defeat was one of our many bad performances this year but those two looked good together. In terms of full backs, if (and its a massive IF) we can keep Riccy and Justin fit (alongside VK), that's as an exciting full back partnership as any. 

 

My issue is, we need a more than a few to add to the team. Not just the squad. Tielemans will need to be replaced. As will Maddison. We are still a RW short and if Barnes goes, we'll need a LW too. Faes is not capable of starting all 38 next season. An upgrade on Amartey but certainly not a starter - not someone who I would want next to Souttar. Evans will need replacing. Is Ndidi going to rediscover some of his form or do we need a new enforcer (I dont think Soumare is best suited to that role). That's at least 2 CBs, 2CMs, a RW, potentially a LW, a striker and potentially a full back. That's a lot to bring in one window. Alongside a new manager (I dont think Smith get's it long term). With that many players, we need to get most right - there will be little or no bedding in period and (I think this may be a good thing) we are losing many of the established leadership group. That's where we will have issues. I think as a fanbase, regardless of who is in charge, we will need to be realistic and patient especially at the start of next season. 

[SafewayFox]

49 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Of course they will. As Southampton did, as we did too. You can’t keep up the buy cheap and sell high model forever.

 

Eventually players start running down their contracts or the spine of your team gets old or jaded and you need a good £100m-£150m summer to sign 4 or 5 established names which is something we needed to do last summer and couldn’t and Southampton never did 2-3 seasons back and Brighton probably won’t do either.

 

That’s the main problem with the model, there comes a point where you do need to spend big on established names to replace your spine and clubs in that style won’t/can’t afford to do that. 
 

The likes of Dunk, Webster, Veltman, March and Gross who have been their spine for so long are all now in their late 20s or early 30s. They’ll start going past their peak in a season or twos time, then they’ll really struggle to have the big spending summer they need to replace that spine. Exactly as we did when Schmeichel, Morgan, Evans, Albrighton and Vardy started getting old and Ndidi got ruined by injuries.

I agree with the players at their peak BUT I totally disagree about the Southampton comparison.

 

Bloom must be one of the most shrewd owners in the league, they seem to have tapped into a business model of buying players very cheaply which reflect in a lower wage.

 

The only question now is the success they’ve had will mean they have a decision to make but would have more faith in Bloom making those decisions than Top based on recent history.

 

 

[justfoxes]

16 hours ago, HankMarvin said:

Move to villa turn his head? I can understand a big club but Villa were shite for most of the season. 

apparently going to double his wages what’s he on now £40-50k a week but can we honestly see us sell Barnes Maddison & Tielemans in one transfer window ?

Edited 5 May 2023 by justfoxes

[moore_94]

12 minutes ago, justfoxes said:

apparently going to double his wages what’s he on now £40-50k a week but can we honestly see us sell Barnes Maddison & Tielemans in one transfer window ?

Really can’t imagine he is still on £50k a week when he signed a new deal in the summer after our 2nd season of finishing 5th

[Sampson]

1 hour ago, SafewayFox said:

I agree with the players at their peak BUT I totally disagree about the Southampton comparison.

 

Bloom must be one of the most shrewd owners in the league, they seem to have tapped into a business model of buying players very cheaply which reflect in a lower wage.

 

The only question now is the success they’ve had will mean they have a decision to make but would have more faith in Bloom making those decisions than Top based on recent history.

 

 

And people said exactly the same thing about our owners 2 years ago and Southampton’s owners 5 years ago, it’s only 2 seasons ago we were constantly told our owners are the envy of the division. I remember a time when people were purring over Randy Lerner at Villa and Steve Gibson at Middlesbrough for the same thing.

 

The reality is Brighton’s recruitment are doing really well atm exactly like ours used to and Southampton’s did before that etc. but no recruiters really can have a high enough success rate that the “buy low, sell high” model can last forever. And players have a power to stop it too.

 

Like I see people say we made a huge mistake not selling Tielemans and/or Soyuncu 2 summers ago when we’d just win the FA Cup and both were rated highly, but I don’t remember any teams actually making bids for them. It’s not that easy and players wind their contracts down for bigger payouts more and more these days too. Other teams will start to see Brighton players as too expensive and stop buying them as they did with us 

 

It’s not about how much they trust the owners or recruitment. Brighton either next summer or the summer after are going to have to have a big summer where they replace 4 or 5 stalwarts who are the spine and “leadership group” of the side, at that point you can’t afford to sign young hungry players who will develop, you have to sign ready made PL players. That was both our and Southamptons downfall and I’d be very surprised if it isn’t Brighton’s as well - long term young signings is good but there inevitably comes a time where you need the expensive, short term, ready made, experienced fix to be the spine and leaders of your side and Brighton are going to need 4 or 5 of those in the next couple of years. 

Edited 5 May 2023 by Sampson

[SemperEadem]

You could see Villa being attractive for him in that his Mrs is pregnant and also local.

[sacreblueits442]

4 hours ago, An Sionnach said:

The only player we have added value to recently is Fofana. This so called model is unlikely to work now. Selling key players at the height of their value is never popular with the fans anyway. They screamed blue murder on here about Fofana.

...the fanbase was not screaming at the club for selling him, they were screaming at him for electing to leave and go to Chelsea!!!

There is nothing wrong with our policy of investing in possible up-and-coming young talent, we need to scout better and pick up better value for money. We could have a really exciting team next season, young, talented and dynamic.

[Strokes]

4 hours ago, An Sionnach said:

The only player we have added value to recently is Fofana. This so called model is unlikely to work now. Selling key players at the height of their value is never popular with the fans anyway. They screamed blue murder on here about Fofana.

I think because we all thought it would be Tielemans. Fofana had just signed a contract.

[SafewayFox]

29 minutes ago, Sampson said:

And people said exactly the same thing about our owners 2 years ago and Southampton’s owners 5 years ago, it’s only 2 seasons ago we were constantly told our owners are the envy of the division. I remember a time when people were purring over Randy Lerner at Villa and Steve Gibson at Middlesbrough for the same thing.

 

The reality is Brighton’s recruitment are doing really well atm exactly like ours used to and Southampton’s did before that etc. but no recruiters really can have a high enough success rate that the “buy low, sell high” model can last forever. And players have a power to stop it too.

 

Like I see people say we made a huge mistake not selling Tielemans and/or Soyuncu 2 summers ago when we’d just win the FA Cup and both were rated highly, but I don’t remember any teams actually making bids for them. It’s not that easy and players wind their contracts down for bigger payouts more and more these days too. Other teams will start to see Brighton players as too expensive and stop buying them as they did with us 

 

It’s not about how much they trust the owners or recruitment. Brighton either next summer or the summer after are going to have to have a big summer where they replace 4 or 5 stalwarts who are the spine and “leadership group” of the side, at that point you can’t afford to sign young hungry players who will develop, you have to sign ready made PL players. That was both our and Southamptons downfall and I’d be very surprised if it isn’t Brighton’s as well - long term young signings is good but there inevitably comes a time where you need the expensive, short term, ready made, experienced fix to be the spine and leaders of your side and Brighton are going to need 4 or 5 of those in the next couple of years. 

My memory must be getting worse but I never remember Southampton’s board being praised in the same vein as ours?

 

Did they sell a lot of players to Liverpool? Yes 

 

But feel a lot of their biggest transfers involved Walcott, Bale, Ox, Shaw who came up through their academy so a very different model when break it down.

 

I get your point about owners previously being raved about but living on the south coast and witnessing Brighton’s overall rise at times on here is scoffed at but I would swap Top for Bloom in a heart beat when compare their recent business/football decisions.

 

A HUGE example of this was Bloom had a list of managers lined up if/when Potter left which surely should have been a bigger shock than Rodgers (we were gash for 18+ months) and had zero strategy when the plug was eventually pulled.

[Chelmofox]

20 minutes ago, Sampson said:

The reality is Brighton’s recruitment are doing really well atm exactly like ours used to and Southampton’s did before that etc. but no recruiters really can have a high enough success rate that the “buy low, sell high” model can last forever. And players have a power to stop it too.

It works and is the envy of the rest of the league, until it all of a sudden it doesn't. Have to remember this is the best season Brighton have ever had. If they qualify for Europe, this will change everything. They will want more depth in the squad, will try and hold on to players which in turn will increase the wage bill. Then you have higher chance of injury due to more games, or your most used players (like Youri in our case) suffering burn out. Then they run the risk of the next Mitoma not working out for whatever reason.  Then you are in danger of making rash appointments with the profits you made from player sales. Its all great when you are on the upward trajectory. 

 

The only model that seems to consistently work is the 'sugar daddy with bucket loads of cash' model. You pay big for proven players, get rid if they don't work, have the odd youth prospect come through and recycle. Then you need to recycle your sugar daddy when he runs out of cash.

[Jacnah]

44 minutes ago, Sampson said:

And people said exactly the same thing about our owners 2 years ago and Southampton’s owners 5 years ago, it’s only 2 seasons ago we were constantly told our owners are the envy of the division. I remember a time when people were purring over Randy Lerner at Villa and Steve Gibson at Middlesbrough for the same thing.

 

The reality is Brighton’s recruitment are doing really well atm exactly like ours used to and Southampton’s did before that etc. but no recruiters really can have a high enough success rate that the “buy low, sell high” model can last forever. And players have a power to stop it too.

 

Like I see people say we made a huge mistake not selling Tielemans and/or Soyuncu 2 summers ago when we’d just win the FA Cup and both were rated highly, but I don’t remember any teams actually making bids for them. It’s not that easy and players wind their contracts down for bigger payouts more and more these days too. Other teams will start to see Brighton players as too expensive and stop buying them as they did with us 

 

It’s not about how much they trust the owners or recruitment. Brighton either next summer or the summer after are going to have to have a big summer where they replace 4 or 5 stalwarts who are the spine and “leadership group” of the side, at that point you can’t afford to sign young hungry players who will develop, you have to sign ready made PL players. That was both our and Southamptons downfall and I’d be very surprised if it isn’t Brighton’s as well - long term young signings is good but there inevitably comes a time where you need the expensive, short term, ready made, experienced fix to be the spine and leaders of your side and Brighton are going to need 4 or 5 of those in the next couple of years. 

Part of the reason it isnt sustainable for clubs without very large revenues is the fact that a club becomes a victim of its own success. The buy low sell high model falls down because, once you reach a level of success, you can no longer afford to buy low. Its essential, in order to sustain the success, that you mostly buy better than you have. Would we, for example, have gambled on Vardy from non league in the last 6-7 years, or kante, or Mahrez. Most likely not. You then add to the mix the fact that losing your most talented players is virtually inevitable (Vardy staying at Leicester is a bit of an outlier) because they will earn more and most likely win more, then things become very difficult to sustain. Its all cyclic unless the club has the finances to drive through it. The current set up does nothing but strengthen the hegmony of the rich clubs. If you accept that then the move to super leagues and franchises as a global 'business model' becomes another inevitability....eventually. (sorry for the rant at the end!!)

[honeybradger]

3 hours ago, Sampson said:

Of course they will. As Southampton did, as we did too. You can’t keep up the buy cheap and sell high model forever.

 

Eventually players start running down their contracts or the spine of your team gets old or jaded and you need a good £100m-£150m summer to sign 4 or 5 established names which is something we needed to do last summer and couldn’t and Southampton never did 2-3 seasons back and Brighton probably won’t do either.

 

That’s the main problem with the model, there comes a point where you do need to spend big on established names to replace your spine and clubs in that style won’t/can’t afford to do that. 
 

The likes of Dunk, Webster, Veltman, March and Gross who have been their spine for so long are all now in their late 20s or early 30s. They’ll start going past their peak in a season or twos time, then they’ll really struggle to have the big spending summer they need to replace that spine. Exactly as we did when Schmeichel, Morgan, Evans, Albrighton and Vardy started getting old and Ndidi got ruined by injuries.

The model didnt fail. The club started failing because we stopped using the model, we held on to our most expensive assets for too long and let them run  down their contracts. That is literally the opposite of buying low and selling high. If we had sold Tielemans and soyuncu in 2021 for 50 mil or so each we would not be in this same situation where the squad has become stale. 

 

As a club we should not be making the same mistake with Barnes, it's better for him and the club to part ways, we cant risk him running down his contract and losing another player on a free. This is a team that desperately needs some fresh blood, in the past after the sales of Maguire, Chilwell, Mahrez have actually improved us as a team. Lets return to the model that we found success in.

[An Sionnach]

23 minutes ago, Chelmofox said:

The only model that seems to consistently work is the 'sugar daddy with bucket loads of cash' model. You pay big for proven players, get rid if they don't work, have the odd youth prospect come through and recycle. Then you need to recycle your sugar daddy when he runs out of cash.

Cynical , but deadly accurate. Man City's wall of cash is nuclear resistant. Nearly everything that is wrong with football has been caused by oil. 

[Angus Scott]

1 hour ago, moore_94 said:

Really can’t imagine he is still on £50k a week when he signed a new deal in the summer after our 2nd season of finishing 5th

Nor me, most of our players seem to be on at least 80k per week minimum

[Sampson]

31 minutes ago, honeybradger said:

The model didnt fail. The club started failing because we stopped using the model, we held on to our most expensive assets for too long and let them run  down their contracts. That is literally the opposite of buying low and selling high. If we had sold Tielemans and soyuncu in 2021 for 50 mil or so each we would not be in this same situation where the squad has become stale. 

 

As a club we should not be making the same mistake with Barnes, it's better for him and the club to part ways, we cant risk him running down his contract and losing another player on a free. This is a team that desperately needs some fresh blood, in the past after the sales of Maguire, Chilwell, Mahrez have actually improved us as a team. Let’s return to the model that we found success in.

And again - no one bidded for Tielemans and Soyuncu so we didn’t hold on to them by choice and they were on comfy contracts so could wind them down. Why do people always say “we should’ve sold Tielemans and Soyuncu 2 summers ago for £xyz million.”? We might well have sold them if we’d had offers but you can’t just sell players because you want to.
 

Teams started to think our players were too expensive or would just run down their contracts. Players at Brighton will get itchy and they won’t want to sell 3 or 4 players in a summer so they’ll either offer bigger wages which means teams won’t buy them anymore as they’ll consider them too expensive, or the players will run down their contracts. 

Edited 5 May 2023 by Sampson

[filbertway]

1 hour ago, Sampson said:

And people said exactly the same thing about our owners 2 years ago and Southampton’s owners 5 years ago, it’s only 2 seasons ago we were constantly told our owners are the envy of the division. I remember a time when people were purring over Randy Lerner at Villa and Steve Gibson at Middlesbrough for the same thing.

 

The reality is Brighton’s recruitment are doing really well atm exactly like ours used to and Southampton’s did before that etc. but no recruiters really can have a high enough success rate that the “buy low, sell high” model can last forever. And players have a power to stop it too.

 

Like I see people say we made a huge mistake not selling Tielemans and/or Soyuncu 2 summers ago when we’d just win the FA Cup and both were rated highly, but I don’t remember any teams actually making bids for them. It’s not that easy and players wind their contracts down for bigger payouts more and more these days too. Other teams will start to see Brighton players as too expensive and stop buying them as they did with us 

 

It’s not about how much they trust the owners or recruitment. Brighton either next summer or the summer after are going to have to have a big summer where they replace 4 or 5 stalwarts who are the spine and “leadership group” of the side, at that point you can’t afford to sign young hungry players who will develop, you have to sign ready made PL players. That was both our and Southamptons downfall and I’d be very surprised if it isn’t Brighton’s as well - long term young signings is good but there inevitably comes a time where you need the expensive, short term, ready made, experienced fix to be the spine and leaders of your side and Brighton are going to need 4 or 5 of those in the next couple of years. 

 

Bloom's club has been consistently improving year on year for ages now. Same with Brentford.

 

I keep hearing a lot of people saying what you're saying and using the Southampton example. One feels like Southampton was blessed with a good clutch of players at the same time. Whereas Brighton and Brentford seem to have been consistently improving for near on a 7/8 years now. Despite plenty of changes in management. The structure is in place and regardless of the staff , they want to operate in a certain way.

 

Like you say, big challenge coming with Europe looking likely and players likely to move on. They just seem too intelligent to let it set them back, it'll be interesting to view them over the next couple of seasons though. If you're right, Brighton should be battling relegation in the next season or two.

 

I've told a lot of people how much I rate Bloom at Brighton so I'm gonna get it from all angles if it all collapses in the next year or two

 

[Jordan]

4 hours ago, OntarioFox said:

I wonder if Brighton will fall into the same trap as ours if they start consistently getting European footy without breaking the top four?

 

A massive part of the problem has been us offering Champions League contracts to players for Europa League finishes. We never got over the line (thanks Brendan) and our gamble has blown up in our faces. Key players refused to sign contracts because (presumably) we were trying to slash their wages, having already told them they were top-four standard players and attracting interest from the likes of Tottenham, Arsenal, a newly minted Newcastle and Atletico Madrid.

 

I'd like to think they wont take the bait having seen what's happened to us.

Brighton are super committed to a quant/analytical/Moneyball approach so I can see them having a ceiling on any of their players where they believe paying them over that amount would not be worth it. 
 

They’ll rather take their chances finding replacements (especially as long as they think their analytical models give them a competitive advantage in scouting).

 

From what I gather from The Swiss Ramble and others, Brighton actually lowered their wages-to-turnover ratio last season.

 

I agree they won’t panic like how we did last season (and to some extend, this summer).

 

Barring a cataclysmic event (edit: such as another pandemic or Super League) that upends the football economy, I think a more likely scenario for Brighton going from overachieving to a big mess includes either

 

- a mass embrace of hyper-analytical models (including a big commitment by big clubs towards this) whereby the types of attributes Brighton look for are no longer undervalued, and they cannot react, or

 

- more investment (such as Newcastle, Man Utd new ownership, and other possibilities with other clubs) driving transfer/wage spending so high that Brighton can no longer offer competitive salaries, and the brute force of 10+ big spending teams over time drives them down the table.

Edited 5 May 2023 by Jordan

[Stadt]

4 hours ago, Finnegan said:

One bad season and Aston Villa are buying our best players? 

 

 

Smells like rubbish to me. Assume his agent is trying to get him a new deal or put his name around in case we go down. 

 

If we stay up and hire an even halfway decent manager in the summer then a move to Villa is sideways at absolute best. 

The mentality of our whole club, fans included is dreadful.

"Uh... wouldn't be.... it be...  ugh... so  bad if all of these big strong powerful payers.. ugh came and took all our pwayers and... we were just powerwess to resist" Midtable championship club fetish.

[Stadt]

5 minutes ago, filbertway said:

 

Bloom's club has been consistently improving year on year for ages now. Same with Brentford.

 

I keep hearing a lot of people saying what you're saying and using the Southampton example. One feels like Southampton was blessed with a good clutch of players at the same time. Whereas Brighton and Brentford seem to have been consistently improving for near on a 7/8 years now. Despite plenty of changes in management. The structure is in place and regardless of the staff , they want to operate in a certain way.

 

Like you say, big challenge coming with Europe looking likely and players likely to move on. They just seem too intelligent to let it set them back, it'll be interesting to view them over the next couple of seasons though. If you're right, Brighton should be battling relegation in the next season or two.

 

I've told a lot of people how much I rate Bloom at Brighton so I'm gonna get it from all angles if it all collapses in the next year or two

 

Bloom and Benham made their fortunes in football analytics (via gambling). Obviously both clubs are more data driven than almost any other clubs in the world. Our transfer success was largely predicated on Walsh and Macia's recruitment. It was a house built on sand whereas Brighton and Brentford are institutionally 'smart clubs'.