The Politics Thread 2019

[fuchsntf]

13 hours ago, Foxin_Mad said:

What are the 'motivations' of the right wing voters? 

They don't need motivation...

Right wingers and traditional conservative voters.will 99.9% of the time will blindly vote conservative..

 

Labour party,left wingers,or center socialists..only 80% of their life time will keep to labour...Even hardened socialist will back off on election Day...

 

Corbyn has only cronies to keep in office.

I believe at the beginning he had a strong mandate,and made some good open interviews and speaches...but worse than any Labour leader,his front

Desk leaders and he himself, just went totally astray,on nearly every issue...

I am what some may call an hardened

Socialist...but UK have not had a socialist leader for a very longtime...  &

Blair led,like himself a dongo group of manipulative non-party free-wheeling politcians.

I ,  if now or in the recent 40yrs would be voting...There hasn't been a major group who I would want to vote &support on a socialist platform or solid mandate...

There has been IMO,some good male/female socialist politicians and backbenchers,but very few of the good,competent ones,didn't move in to take a top 12 group,or were mobbed out,or resigned totally out of their office.

A poor  & incompetent Conservative party,with the same chaos within,singularly decent politicians...

Just have no opposition party,in Govt.

Both ooze,with high hypocritical incompetence...leaving the electorate to syph through ,the abuse of truth,and find or work out the confused poorly presented party mandates...

The point is, a conservative ,never waver they will blindly loyally put the cross towards the blue Ribbon....It allows them to tip the scales and keep ',their'

Status quo...

[Guest]

Not sure I understand the conflicting statements given, saying that we have to keep no deal on the board in order to have a strong negotiating position but that we won't have a no deal. Doesn't saying the second nullify the first?

 

And whilst I agree that a no deal is possibly the worst outcome for the EU it is so much worse for the UK that it really isn't a threat for the EU. The EU will continue to operate well, the UK will die economically.  

 

Also how can Britain justify spending so much on "no deal" if they say it isn't going to come about?

 

I'm going to keep my eyes on UK bargains when the pound crashes for a quick euro purchase.

[Buce]

 

So, when George Osbourne spoke of an 'emergency Brexit budget' it was ridiculed by Leavers as Project Fear.

 

Now it's called planning.

[Beechey]

21 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

So, when George Osbourne spoke of an 'emergency Brexit budget' it was ridiculed by Leavers as Project Fear.

 

Now it's called planning.

Is there going to be a budget before the next planned one?

I can't find anything on it

[Buce]

17 minutes ago, Beechey said:

Is there going to be a budget before the next planned one?

I can't find anything on it

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/01/government-refuses-to-rule-out-emergency-no-deal-brexit-budget

[Beechey]

2 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/01/government-refuses-to-rule-out-emergency-no-deal-brexit-budget

Blimey, not exactly a good look

[Foxin_Mad]

I am not sure if it will make it that far. 

 

If they lose the bi-election and some pro-eu Tory is saying he is going to quit. They would have no working majority. 

 

I don't see how they can get out of this one without a election. 

[Beechey]

19 minutes ago, Foxin_Mad said:

I am not sure if it will make it that far. 

 

If they lose the bi-election and some pro-eu Tory is saying he is going to quit. They would have no working majority. 

 

I don't see how they can get out of this one without a election. 

If they lose the by-election, their working majority goes to -1, considering the Speaker cannot vote.

Currently they have 310 MP's able to vote, lose the by-election and even with the DUP's 10 MPs, they become a minority government.

 

They'll be looking at the polls with hope though

 

 

[leicsmac]

23 minutes ago, Beechey said:

If they lose the by-election, their working majority goes to -1, considering the Speaker cannot vote.

Currently they have 310 MP's able to vote, lose the by-election and even with the DUP's 10 MPs, they become a minority government.

 

They'll be looking at the polls with hope though

 

 

If those polls are accurate and the Tories think they can also get the Brexit party to lend a hand, you'd think that they would be pushing for a GE right here and now much more vociferously.

[LiberalFox]

Maybe it's part of the pantomime. I can see it being in Johnson's interests to paint a general election as an undesirable necessity rather than gleefully pushing for one.  

[Innovindil]

6 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

If those polls are accurate and the Tories think they can also get the Brexit party to lend a hand, you'd think that they would be pushing for a GE right here and now much more vociferously.

Boris needs a) time to fail the "renewed" negotiations, giving a helping hand to snag some brexit voters b) time to spaff some money at nhs/police other standard areas of labour reeeing to try and snare some brexit labour fans. c) time to make it seem like the only solution, not a calculated call like May's was. 

[davieG]

I think he’s hoping to be “pushed” into one then he can blame the opposition for “yet another election” .

[leicsmac]

15 minutes ago, LiberalFox said:

Maybe it's part of the pantomime. I can see it being in Johnson's interests to paint a general election as an undesirable necessity rather than gleefully pushing for one.  

 

12 minutes ago, Innovindil said:

Boris needs a) time to fail the "renewed" negotiations, giving a helping hand to snag some brexit voters b) time to spaff some money at nhs/police other standard areas of labour reeeing to try and snare some brexit labour fans. c) time to make it seem like the only solution, not a calculated call like May's was. 

 

11 minutes ago, davieG said:

I think he’s hoping to be “pushed” into one then he can blame the opposition for “yet another election” .

Yeah, there's something in all of that.

[Ali Begbie]

45 minutes ago, Beechey said:

If they lose the by-election, their working majority goes to -1, considering the Speaker cannot vote.

Currently they have 310 MP's able to vote, lose the by-election and even with the DUP's 10 MPs, they become a minority government.

 

They'll be looking at the polls with hope though

 

 

The 12 point swing from Brexit to Lib Dems is interesting. Must be because we're actively preparing for No Deal.

 

I think most people will reach a 'tipping point' somewhere or other along the line with regard to Brexit where it suddenly becomes real.

 

It really bought it home to me when I read that Lamb exports to the EU will be subject to a 40% tariff under WTO terms.

[Ali Begbie]

27 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

If those polls are accurate and the Tories think they can also get the Brexit party to lend a hand, you'd think that they would be pushing for a GE right here and now much more vociferously.

I wonder how much 'staying power' the Brexit Party will have though. Already down 7%. They made some sense for the EU elections - but how seriously will the electorate take them when they have no domestic policies?

[Beechey]

13 minutes ago, Ali Begbie said:

The 12 point swing from Brexit to Lib Dems is interesting. Must be because we're actively preparing for No Deal.

 

I think most people will reach a 'tipping point' somewhere or other along the line with regard to Brexit where it suddenly becomes real.

 

It really bought it home to me when I read that Lamb exports to the EU will be subject to a 40% tariff under WTO terms.

I think it's probably more likely the Brexit Party voters have gone to the Conservatives and the Labour voters have gone to the Lib Dems, isn't it?

 

[Ali Begbie]

4 minutes ago, Beechey said:

I think it's probably more likely the Brexit Party voters have gone to the Conservatives and the Labour voters have gone to the Lib Dems, isn't it?

 

LOL. Yes sorry. I was just commentating on the overall 12% shift. I wasn't thinking that 12% of Brexit voters had suddenly switched to supporting Lib Dems.

 

Politics is strange these days but not that strange.

[Countryfox]

Well done Tezza !!...    only just been booted out and already finding a new celebrity career ! 

 

I've heard she's also being considered for the next 'Hot babe ex-politician calendar 2020' ...   sean-from-enderby reckons the deal is nearly done and will be announced next week ....      

 

 

[Free Falling Foxes]

Who's the new presenter on Newsnight?

Talk about a wolf in sheep's clothing, she's a female Jeremy Paxman.

[Buce]

 

Bozo's majority down to one now.

 

If I'm not mistaken, the seat just won by a Remain party, voted Leave in the Referendum.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/02/brecon-radnorshire-byelection-lib-dems-jane-dodds-win-cuts-johnson-commons-majority-to-one

 

[Innovindil]

12 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

Bozo's majority down to one now.

 

If I'm not mistaken, the seat just won by a Remain party, voted Leave in the Referendum.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/02/brecon-radnorshire-byelection-lib-dems-jane-dodds-win-cuts-johnson-commons-majority-to-one

 

Not surprised, greens didn't run a candidate, Labour still flip flopping and like at the European elections brexit party grabbed a big chunk of the tory vote. Pretty much sums up why Boris is holding off on a general election. 

[Buce]

4 minutes ago, Innovindil said:

Not surprised, greens didn't run a candidate, Labour still flip flopping and like at the European elections brexit party grabbed a big chunk of the tory vote. Pretty much sums up why Boris is holding off on a general election. 

 

No, no surprise, but I think it shows two things: Labour need to become an unequivocally Remain party to avoid electoral wipeout, and there is no public appetite for 'No Deal' even among Leavers.

[Innovindil]

30 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

No, no surprise, but I think it shows two things: Labour need to become an unequivocally Remain party to avoid electoral wipeout, and there is no public appetite for 'No Deal' even among Leavers.

Trouble is if Labour become an unequivocal remain party then that's splits the lib dems vote much like the Brexit party is splitting the tory vote. Always the problem with fence sitting, eventually you have to choose a side but after waiting for so long they'll be second fiddle to the lib dem remain siren song. 

 

And I wouldn't read too much into one by-election, especially a by-election brought about by a scandal. Even with the constituents voting to oust him, brexit party related votes outnumber the remain ones, don't they? 

[Buce]

1 minute ago, Innovindil said:

Trouble is if Labour become an unequivocal remain party then that's splits the lib dems vote much like the Brexit party is splitting the tory vote. Always the problem with fence sitting, eventually you have to choose a side but after waiting for so long they'll be second fiddle to the lib dem remain siren song. 

 

And I wouldn't read too much into one by-election, especially a by-election brought about by a scandal. Even with the constituents voting to oust him, brexit party related votes outnumber the remain ones, don't they? 

 

Yes, it does, which is why there are serious talks ongoing regarding electoral pacts (just as, I imagine, there are between the Tories and BP).

 

I certainly wouldn't be handing over any money to the bookies if there was an election - there are far too many imponderables.

[The Guvnor]

1 hour ago, Innovindil said:

Not surprised, greens didn't run a candidate, Labour still flip flopping and like at the European elections brexit party grabbed a big chunk of the tory vote. Pretty much sums up why Boris is holding off on a general election. 

Add Plaid Cymru to that alliance and what has been a LD seat historically has just scraped in.