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The Politics Thread 2019

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4 minutes ago, The Guvnor said:

Add Plaid Cymru to that alliance and what has been a LD seat historically has just scraped in.

 

This, shows the Conservatives are strengthening and the Brexit Party surge has been quelled until Halloween.

 

I'm sure I saw polls suggesting 10+ point leads for the lib dems over the past few weeks.

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32 minutes ago, The Guvnor said:

Add Plaid Cymru to that alliance and what has been a LD seat historically has just scraped in.

 

 

Well, that's one way of spinning it.

 

Another is that they overturned a Tory majority of over 8,000.

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1 hour ago, Buce said:

 

No, no surprise, but I think it shows two things: Labour need to become an unequivocally Remain party to avoid electoral wipeout, and there is no public appetite for 'No Deal' even among Leavers.

They will probably still be faced with electoral wipeout. To be honest with the actions of the Corbynites and Momentum they deserve to be wiped out.  They have not acted in the interest of the country for years and have pushed us into the situation we are now in by their childish stubbornness to insist on a 'Labour deal' which on paper is very similar to mays deal, if anything actually worse. I'm glad people are waking up to Corbyn and the Labour front bench, they are in this for their own egos.

 

I would hope that people are not stupid enough to believe two of the hardest Brexiteers ever would suddenly become unequivocally remainers. The only real solution is a new leader who is centre left and pro-eu. 

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10 minutes ago, Foxin_Mad said:

They will probably still be faced with electoral wipeout. To be honest with the actions of the Corbynites and Momentum they deserve to be wiped out.  They have not acted in the interest of the country for years and have pushed us into the situation we are now in by their childish stubbornness to insist on a 'Labour deal' which on paper is very similar to mays deal, if anything actually worse. I'm glad people are waking up to Corbyn and the Labour front bench, they are in this for their own egos.

 

I would hope that people are not stupid enough to believe two of the hardest Brexiteers ever would suddenly become unequivocally remainers. The only real solution is a new leader who is centre left and pro-eu. 

 

I think you allow your personal hatred of all things Corbyn to blind you to reality.

 

Polling after the Euro elections showed that if Labour were unequivocally a Remain party, they would have won the biggest percentage of the vote. And to blame Labour for May's deal not getting through is laughable - she couldn't even convince her own party.

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6 minutes ago, Foxin_Mad said:

They will probably still be faced with electoral wipeout. To be honest with the actions of the Corbynites and Momentum they deserve to be wiped out.  They have not acted in the interest of the country for years and have pushed us into the situation we are now in by their childish stubbornness to insist on a 'Labour deal' which on paper is very similar to mays deal, if anything actually worse. I'm glad people are waking up to Corbyn and the Labour front bench, they are in this for their own egos.

 

I would hope that people are not stupid enough to believe two of the hardest Brexiteers ever would suddenly become unequivocally remainers. The only real solution is a new leader who is centre left and pro-eu. 

Reading your posts over the last few weeks, it's evident that you are simply a corbyn hater (not a problem for me) who keeps trying to pretend that you are talking about Brexit or BJ or whatever. Every post is simply an attack on Corbyn.

 

For example in the latest instalment you blame Corbyn for the state of the country and for not getting May's deal through. Are you aware that the tories and DUP have a majority? It doesn't matter what Corbyn or any other party member says if the Tories simply voted for their deal. 

 

You can call Corbyn out for many things (and you do) but please don't close your eyes to the fact that some Tories don't want brexit and that is why the UK is still in the EU.

 

Interesting result in the by-election which can be taken in many different ways. I feel happy that the Lib Dems are finding relevance again but I'm still deeply worried with the obvious near half and half split regarding Brexit - even now. I don't see it as a win for leave or remain, more a defeat for the UK.

 

Corbyn and his momentum group need to be ejected by the labour party, if Labour are to become relevant again, and that needs to happen quickly. I don't think it will but I think Corbyn and Labour can botch leave/remain enough to allow Bojo to win an election if held and cripple the UK. It would be great if Labour joined the tories backing remain as this would effectively kill the point for the brexit party and allow the Lib Dems a clear run to power for remainers.

 

What a mess!

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17 minutes ago, FIF said:

Reading your posts over the last few weeks, it's evident that you are simply a corbyn hater (not a problem for me) who keeps trying to pretend that you are talking about Brexit or BJ or whatever. Every post is simply an attack on Corbyn.

 

 

He is fairly relevant though do you not think? He is leader of HM opposition. I has been a difficult as he can and pushed for an election, not for the good of the party. Its head in the sand stuff to pretend he is not relevant and to protect him. 

 

Its like saying we should discuss Brexit here because its everyone hates it and negativity towards it  and that's all everyone seems to go on about, or how much they hate Tories and the Evil Rich, of course this is ok. 

 

I know some Tories don't support Brexit and I would agree with them, I know some Hard Brexiteers are hell bent on No Deal. The Tories have not helped themselves and have also not acted in the Interest of the country. We know this. What I am saying is someone should be acting in the best interests of the country. May tried to do that and failed. People have chosen their position and will not move from it. The hard reality is now because people refuse to compromise and refuse to work together we will end up with no deal. 

 

Every remainer who voted against Mays Deal, and the Labour party will be fully responsibly if no deal happens. The phrase was no deal is better than a bad deal, my view is that Mays deal was better than no deal. 

 

27 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

 

Polling after the Euro elections showed that if Labour were unequivocally a Remain party, 

But they aren't and wont be with Corbyn. Its cloud cuckoo land. They are led by a bigger Brexiteer than BoJo.

 

The Tribal mentality is ridiculous. 

 

My point is if Labour really wanted to avoid no deal they should have backed Mays deal, the EU are not negotiating further. They would not give Corbyn his a customs union where we have a say over the deals negotiated. 

 

I used to vote Tory, at present I would not, given their recent incompetence I would also find hard to consider them in future. Labour voters need to do the same, Corbyns Labour has been nothing but a disaster of incompetence. Any decent opposition would have made a difference to this process. 

 

The fact we have had complete pathetic rubbish at a time we have need strength has told us everything we need to know about our leaders.

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34 minutes ago, Foxin_Mad said:

He is fairly relevant though do you not think? He is leader of HM opposition. I has been a difficult as he can and pushed for an election, not for the good of the party. Its head in the sand stuff to pretend he is not relevant and to protect him. 

 

Its like saying we should discuss Brexit here because its everyone hates it and negativity towards it  and that's all everyone seems to go on about, or how much they hate Tories and the Evil Rich, of course this is ok. 

 

I know some Tories don't support Brexit and I would agree with them, I know some Hard Brexiteers are hell bent on No Deal. The Tories have not helped themselves and have also not acted in the Interest of the country. We know this. What I am saying is someone should be acting in the best interests of the country. May tried to do that and failed. People have chosen their position and will not move from it. The hard reality is now because people refuse to compromise and refuse to work together we will end up with no deal. 

 

Every remainer who voted against Mays Deal, and the Labour party will be fully responsibly if no deal happens. The phrase was no deal is better than a bad deal, my view is that Mays deal was better than no deal. 

 

But they aren't and wont be with Corbyn. Its cloud cuckoo land. They are led by a bigger Brexiteer than BoJo.

 

The Tribal mentality is ridiculous. 

 

My point is if Labour really wanted to avoid no deal they should have backed Mays deal, the EU are not negotiating further. They would not give Corbyn his a customs union where we have a say over the deals negotiated. 

 

I used to vote Tory, at present I would not, given their recent incompetence I would also find hard to consider them in future. Labour voters need to do the same, Corbyns Labour has been nothing but a disaster of incompetence. Any decent opposition would have made a difference to this process. 

 

The fact we have had complete pathetic rubbish at a time we have need strength has told us everything we need to know about our leaders.

I'm a leaver, and a Tory voter but I don't see how Labour have done anything wrong.  The truth was almost certainly that despite TM parroting the same old rhetoric about 'no deal is better than a bad deal' no one ever believed her, so why would any opposition Party  vote for something they know would split their voters down the middle.

At least now, like it or loathe it, there is a clear direction of travel. 

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1 hour ago, The Guvnor said:

I'm a leaver, and a Tory voter but I don't see how Labour have done anything wrong.  The truth was almost certainly that despite TM parroting the same old rhetoric about 'no deal is better than a bad deal' no one ever believed her, so why would any opposition Party  vote for something they know would split their voters down the middle.

At least now, like it or loathe it, there is a clear direction of travel. 

But he was kind of right wasn't she. If we want to get out of the EU her deal is really the only option on the table. If Labour or some Labour politicians want to avoid no deal the only way to do that is to back Mays deal, the EU have said as much.

 

Remain without a new referendum isn't really on the table either way.

 

Its Mays deal or no deal, these are the facts we have to accept. By rejecting Mays Deal we are endorsing no deal.

 

Labour are fooked either way! Most of their membership is pro-remain. Most of their seats are leave!

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2 hours ago, The Guvnor said:

I'm a leaver, and a Tory voter but I don't see how Labour have done anything wrong.  The truth was almost certainly that despite TM parroting the same old rhetoric about 'no deal is better than a bad deal' no one ever believed her, so why would any opposition Party  vote for something they know would split their voters down the middle.

At least now, like it or loathe it, there is a clear direction of travel. 

 All the things that won't get agreed in the event of No Deal will all still need to be agreed at some point. There may be a clear direction of travel but there's no destination. :)

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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/dominic-cummings-aims-a-wrecking-ball-at-whitehall-bnvzw5sv6

 

Dominic Cummings aims a wrecking ball at Whitehall
The PM’s chief adviser, former head of Vote Leave, has inspired loyalty and loathing all his career, Oliver Wright reports

 

In the aftermath of the 2016 EU referendum Dominic Cummings, head of the Vote Leave campaign, sent a final email to supporters with an elliptical warning.

“If we ever want to send up a signal that Westminster is cheating the vote and we need to form a new movement, you will see ‘the bat’,” he wrote.

Two and a half years later, on the day that Theresa May signed the EU withdrawal agreement, Mr Cummings sent that signal. He posted an image of the Batman logo on Twitter below four words: “Please get in touch.’’

Then, out of the public gaze, Mr Cummings began working on a new strategy to deliver Brexit.

He started rebuilding some of the networks of Vote Leave, held focus groups of swing voters across the country and began testing the messages for a second referendum or Brexit election.

Four months later he predicted: “Beating them again and by more will be easier than 2016.”

Now he is putting his plans into effect — not against the establishment as he expected in November but as part of it after Boris Johnson put him in charge at Downing Street to fulfil his “do or die” October Brexit pledge.

Mr Cummings was only half joking after his unexpected appointment last week that he had made a series of “terrorist demands” before he agreed to go back into government. Asked what they were one source said: “He said he needed to be in charge of everything.”

But, while he is again a central character in the national drama of Brexit, who exactly is he, beyond the clichéd pantomime villain depicted by his many critics?

Why, as one person put it, is there the “Cummings conundrum” — a man who is detested by some and almost religiously worshipped by others? And perhaps most importantly, what is the strategy that he has been working on and could it eventually lead to a clash with his new boss?

To understand the man you have to understand something of his background. The son of an oil rig project manager and a special needs teacher, Mr Cummings, 47, was brought up in Durham, where he worked at as a teenager on the door of his uncle’s nightclub, once described as the worst in Europe.

When Theresa May signed the EU withdrawal agreement Mr Cummings tweeted a Batman symbol as a rallying cry to his followers When Theresa May signed the EU withdrawal agreement Mr Cummings tweeted a Batman symbol as a rallying cry to his followers
His family was solidly middle class and he was sent to the 600-year-old Durham School, whose alumni include aristocrats, generals and the founder of Sierra Leone.

That he was brought up in the northeast, claims one long-term associate, has always made him think he was different from the Westminster bubble of politicians and journalists.

“He still sees himself as an outsider and was always contemptuous of people like Cameron and Osborne, who he saw as privileged, lazy and out of touch with real people. But in pure socio-economic terms their backgrounds aren’t so different,” they said.

Perhaps the most intriguing part of Mr Cummings’s early life was the time he spent in Oxford in the early 1990s. Unlike most aspiring members of the political class, he studied history rather than PPE and came under the tutelage of the celebrated (and infamous) right-wing Scottish historian Norman Stone.

The parallels between the late Stone and the student he described as “brilliant” are striking. A founding member of the Eurosceptic Bruges Group, Stone was a vocal critic of the EU in the 1980s and was contemptuous of the establishment in London and Brussels. He had a penchant for rudeness and making enemies that would become hallmarks of his protégé.

Where once Stone lambasted Edward Heath as a “flabby-faced coward” and John Major as a “transitional nobody” so Mr Cummings would go on to describe David Cameron a “sphinx without a riddle” and David Davis, then Brexit secretary, as “thick as mince, lazy as a toad and vain as Narcissus”.

While the influences of such relationships can be overstated, say people who knew them well, Stone introduced Mr Cummings into the world of Euroscepticism. It meant that when he came back from an unsuccessful spell trying set up an airline in post-Communist Russia he found a berth at the nascent Business for Sterling campaign that was trying to stop Britain joining the euro at the end of the 1990s.

It was a formative experience and in some ways a test run for the tactics he deployed so successfully at Vote Leave more than a decade later.

He refused to let Business for Sterling be linked to the deeply unpopular Tory party, which was fighting its own much-derided campaign to save the pound. He weaponised issues that people cared about, such as the NHS, to make his point about government priorities and the out-of-touch elite and he even succeeded in winning over the unions to the cause under the nose of Tony Blair, who had assumed they would blindly follow Labour policy.

As he put it at the time with characteristic immodesty: “I have lost count of the number of times I have said that if the No [to the euro] campaign were to be right-wing and based on sovereignty and the Union Jack, while the other side focus on jobs and living standards, we will lose.”

His introduction to the Conservative Party, of which he has never been a member, came when Iain Duncan Smith, as leader, made him director of strategy. Mr Cummings shared Mr Duncan Smith’s Eurosceptic views but he was also an admirer of the modernising instincts and political savvy of Mr Blair and Alastair Campbell, which he wanted the Conservatives to emulate in a way that the former army officer would not countenance. He resigned eight months later. As one witness to the fraught period put it: “Dom simply didn’t care who he clashed with. He was no respecter of authority or title. There has always been a strong element of the anarchist about him.”

Much more successful was his partnership with Michael Gove. The two had become friends when Mr Gove worked for The Times and when the latter left journalism for politics he hired Mr Cummings as his chief of staff and principal adviser as shadow education secretary. Together they devised, and in government drove through, reforms of exams and the curriculum, the free schools programme and the expansion of academies.


It had a profound effect on them both. In government Mr Cummings became contemptuous of the so-called Rolls-Royce civil service machine that was meant to deliver their reforms.

As he later put it in one of his voluminous blogs: “The senior civil service operates like a protected caste to preserve its power and privileges regardless of who the ignorant plebs vote for.

“Being in charge of massive screw-ups is no barrier to promotion. You will often see the official in charge of some debacle walking to the Tube at 4pm while the debacle is live on television.”

He also became a vocal critic of the extent to which EU law, both real and imagined, was used by Whitehall as a block to policy initiatives.

“Discussions are often dominated by lawyers and so many actions are deemed ‘unlawful’ without proper scrutiny,” he wrote.

“This device is routinely used by officials to stop discussion of options they dislike for non-legal reasons.”

His “take no prisoners” approach made enemies. Mr Cameron described him as a “career psychopath”, Nick Clegg said he was “loopy” and a former senior civil servant who worked with him said that he could not think of a single printable to say about him.


Conversely he also inspired extraordinary loyalty, certainly among fellow believers but also from some civil servants who were as frustrated by Whitehall bureaucracy as they were.

As one person in the department put it: “The caricature of Dom as the villain is wrong. He accepted argument and evidence. He wasn’t dogmatic. And a lot of senior civil servants responded to it as a breath of fresh air. When he fell out with people it was over whether things could be done differently.”

Another former colleague said that he had never worked for someone “more inspiring or oddly charismatic”.

Mr Cummings left government in 2014 and spent much of his time writing angry blogs taking swipes at his former colleagues. But after the Tories’ unexpected 2015 general election victory he was naturally drawn into the orbit of the nascent Leave campaign.

That is a now well-worn story, not least thanks to his portrayal by Benedict Cumberbatch in TV drama The Uncivil War. It is what he has done since, especially in the past nine months, that is much more interesting in the light of his new role.

From the start he was infuriated by the Brexit strategy pursued by the May government. He believed that it should never have invoked Article 50 and instead turned the pressure up on Europe by preparing for life outside the EU without formally pulling the trigger.

That, he suggested, might have allowed Britain to negotiate a different form of relationship with Europe that met the concerns of the referendum on EU law and immigration without the need for a hard break. Or, as he put it, maintaining “the number of positive branching histories of the future”.

To begin with this amounted to sniping from the sidelines while he spent his time looking after his baby son.

It has been claimed that his wife, the Spectator journalist Mary Wakefield, had pretty much forbidden him from going back into frontline politics after their son was born during the referendum campaign. But by November last year, as the withdrawal agreement was signed, he was back in the game as signalled by the bat. Friends say that he passionately felt this was not the Brexit he had campaigned for in 2016 and he was determined to fight it.

To begin with he toyed with the idea of setting up a new movement or party based on the principles of Vote Leave. He set up and ran a series of focus groups to test the public mood not only on Brexit but on politics more generally. He had done this in 2016 and the insights were what led him to the infamous NHS bus pledge.

“Dom uses focus groups in a way that I’ve never seen anyone else do,” one veteran of the Leave campaign said.

“He never subcontracts them. It is always him. He’s listening not just to what people say but the way they say it. That’s how he frames the messaging.”

 

Those focus groups revealed three things: the NHS was a huge issue, despite Mrs May’s £20 billion injection, because nobody thought things had got better; crime had shot up the political agenda, especially outside of London; and Labour was now more trusted on the issue than the Tories.

And finally, on Brexit, not many people really wanted a deal any more. Leavers just wanted it done and Remainers wanted Article 50 revoked.

As one former colleague put it: “Dom’s view has always been: do what the people want or they’ll go apeshit.”

So what to do with these insights? In reality events overtook him. After missing the March 29 Brexit deadline it was clear that Mrs May was finished and Mr Cummings began talking to her potential successors, including Mr Gove and Mr Johnson.

This was not in the hope of getting a job but simply because Brexit was unfinished business for him and he saw it as an opportunity to influence whoever became the next leader. But those conversations did have a bearing on the political pledges made during the leadership campaign, insiders say.

In fact it was less than a week before Mr Johnson became prime minister that he formally approached Mr Cummings and asked him to join him in Downing Street.

“It was the ultimate roll of the dice by Johnson,” one person involved in the campaign said.

“He was worried that the former City Hall people he had around him would get overwhelmed by civil service no-deal pessimism. He was desperate. He needed someone to drive the machine although don’t think Raab or even Gove would have taken the risk.”

Mr Cummings has wasted no time in making his presence felt. In the first photograph of Mr Johnson arriving in Downing Street and being greeted by Sir Mark Sedwill, the cabinet secretary, Mr Cummings can be seen lurking on his own in jeans and a T-shirt.

One critic said it was not a coincidence. “It was sending a very clear visual message. He knew exactly where the camera was and was putting himself in the shot.”

Another pointed out that while most advisers who entered Downing Street with Mr Johnson deactivated their Twitter accounts Mr Cummings took the opposite approach.

“People says he’s a backroom operator but he’s really not,” one Brexiteer Tory MP said. “He loves the limelight.”

So now he is in Downing Street what is the Cummings strategy? Unlike Mr Johnson’s public pronouncements he does not think that the EU will offer an acceptable deal, even at the 11th hour.

 

He is also not afraid of the disruption of no-deal. To him, if Britain leaves on October 31, even if it is disastrous, the chances of ever going back in are much less than if it never left in the first place. Leaving is the first and only objective — nothing else matters.

He sees Brexit as a way of rebuilding the country outside the shackles of protectionist European bureaucracy. He also sees it as a once-in-a-generation chance to reshape the British state that he railed against in government.

Like Stone, he is no less compromising on this as he is towards his political enemies. If he has to fight election he will and it will not only be about Brexit.

“It will be the NHS, crime, immigration, repeat,” one seasoned Tory campaigner said.

“Look at what Johnson has done already with police numbers, hospital building and an Australian-style points system. This is all Dom. It’s about being ready for a forced election.”

The real question is whether Mr Johnson really shares Mr Cummings’s kamikaze vision to deliver Brexit.

Mr Cummings is the ultimate risk-taking, conviction campaigner prepared to lose it all. Mr Johnson, despite recent pronouncements, is perhaps his antithesis, caring much more about power itself and being liked.

However, Mr Cummings’s “terrorist demands” mean that Downing Street is now populated by his old Vote Leave crew, who are more loyal to him than the prime minister. And that could mean trouble ahead.

As one person who knows them both said, by bringing such a totemic figure into the heart of government Mr Johnson is no longer completely in charge of his own destiny.

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1 hour ago, davieG said:

Mr Cummings is the ultimate risk-taking, conviction campaigner prepared to lose it all.

 

lovely. so this puppet-master, pulling all of the strings in downing street for the hardest no-deal possible - he was elected by whom?

 

democracy!

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57 minutes ago, Finnegan said:

Isn't a white kid bemoaning the "Latino invasion of Texas" a bit like a white kid complaining about a "Navajo invasion" of Arizona? 

 

I mean irony guys come on. 

Technically no, because Latinos aren't native to the Americas in the same way Navajo are. But I get your point and yes there is a certain irony to it. 

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22 minutes ago, bovril said:

Technically no, because Latinos aren't native to the Americas in the same way Navajo are. But I get your point and yes there is a certain irony to it. 

 

Obviously but it was still the Spanish empire, New Spain and Mexico long before it was Texas. 

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3 hours ago, SO1 said:

Brexit voters and Trump voters. Take a listen. Not much difference between us.

Maybe some similarities for some folk.

 

But a lot of Brexit voters don't fall under that "nothing left to lose" category, from my personal experience.

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23 hours ago, Finnegan said:

Isn't a white kid bemoaning the "Latino invasion of Texas" a bit like a white kid complaining about a "Navajo invasion" of Arizona? 

 

I mean irony guys come on. 

Tough to compare the two.

 

Look at the population comparison:

 

The Navajo tribe amount to 330'000+ people at best. That's the whole population, men, women, children, the elderly.

 

As for Middle Americans heading up North towards the US, peak numbers for Mexicans alone in 2000 reached 1.6 million, and it's around 150'000 Mexicans per year at present (or 400'000 people in total).

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/06/28/what-we-know-about-illegal-immigration-from-mexico/

Lots more potential refugees going one way, and that's mostly young males only.

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On 02/08/2019 at 12:01, Foxin_Mad said:

He is fairly relevant though do you not think? He is leader of HM opposition. I has been a difficult as he can and pushed for an election, not for the good of the party. Its head in the sand stuff to pretend he is not relevant and to protect him. 

 

Its like saying we should discuss Brexit here because its everyone hates it and negativity towards it  and that's all everyone seems to go on about, or how much they hate Tories and the Evil Rich, of course this is ok. 

 

I know some Tories don't support Brexit and I would agree with them, I know some Hard Brexiteers are hell bent on No Deal. The Tories have not helped themselves and have also not acted in the Interest of the country. We know this. What I am saying is someone should be acting in the best interests of the country. May tried to do that and failed. People have chosen their position and will not move from it. The hard reality is now because people refuse to compromise and refuse to work together we will end up with no deal. 

 

Every remainer who voted against Mays Deal, and the Labour party will be fully responsibly if no deal happens. The phrase was no deal is better than a bad deal, my view is that Mays deal was better than no deal. 

 

But they aren't and wont be with Corbyn. Its cloud cuckoo land. They are led by a bigger Brexiteer than BoJo.

 

The Tribal mentality is ridiculous. 

 

My point is if Labour really wanted to avoid no deal they should have backed Mays deal, the EU are not negotiating further. They would not give Corbyn his a customs union where we have a say over the deals negotiated. 

 

I used to vote Tory, at present I would not, given their recent incompetence I would also find hard to consider them in future. Labour voters need to do the same, Corbyns Labour has been nothing but a disaster of incompetence. Any decent opposition would have made a difference to this process. 

 

The fact we have had complete pathetic rubbish at a time we have need strength has told us everything we need to know about our leaders.

Now...why didnt you say that at the beginning....

Then @FIF would of been kinder...:facepalm:

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