Brexit!

[Jon the Hat]

For those who want to remain still, can you explain how you think we could reform the EU, especially given the much weakened position we would find ourselves in?  How would you negotiate to continue our rebate and veto?  What would you put on the table?  What would your approach be to an EU army? To increasing costs of remaining in the EU?

[Jon the Hat]

It seems to me we are too far down this road to possibly think about turning back.  We need a clean break and move on.  Yes there will be some short term pain, but I still absolutely believe we will be a very successful nation in the medium term (5 years plus say, maybe sooner), and that in the 10-20 year window that the EU will fall apart, and we will be much much better off in that period.  in the longer term, it will probably equalise say 30-50 years it won't matter whether we leave now or when the EU implodes.

[Buce]

Just now, Leicester_Loyal said:

Looking at the opinion polls from the last few weeks. I should have added that.

 

As someone pointed out earlier, this election will be like no other so polls are meaningless.

 

[Leicester_Loyal]

Just now, Buce said:

 

As someone pointed out earlier, this election will be like no other so polls are meaningless.

 

Nothing to do with the fact that Corbyns in 3rd place in a lot of them?

[Trav Le Bleu]

50 minutes ago, Rob1742 said:

 

 

4. Someone else is now having a go, but now it’s about personal gain, about staying in their positions, so every move now is about their own gain and not the countries.

 

Some very good points in this post, but this one is something I've thought for a long time, but not just Johnson, but Corbyn too. All either of them is concerned about is being PM, whatever the cost.

 

Which is scary. Power should never be given to someone who lusts for it.

[Buce]

Just now, Leicester_Loyal said:

Nothing to do with the fact that Corbyns in 3rd place in a lot of them?

 

Not at all, it's an opinion based on evaluation of the political situation.

 

Also, for the record I'm not an admirer of Corbyn at all - I think he's an electoral liabiliy to Labour - but I am firmly in the camp of 'anyone but the Tories', as you and everyone else on here should be - they do not represent our interests, just the interests of the obscenely wealthy.

[Jon the Hat]

11 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

For those who want to remain still, can you explain how you think we could reform the EU, especially given the much weakened position we would find ourselves in?  How would you negotiate to continue our rebate and veto?  What would you put on the table?  What would your approach be to an EU army? To increasing costs of remaining in the EU?

 @lifted*fox is it a bit tricky to understand that there is no such thing as going back to how things were?  Remainers spend all their time asking for answers on every conceivable risk of Brexit, so I thought they must have all the answers ready for remaining.

[Jon the Hat]

I have no doubt in my mind that Brexit would still win a 2nd Referendum, and that Boris would win a GE (possibly requiring some sort of deal with the Brexit party)

[Rob1742]

18 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

It seems to me we are too far down this road to possibly think about turning back.  We need a clean break and move on.  Yes there will be some short term pain, but I still absolutely believe we will be a very successful nation in the medium term (5 years plus say, maybe sooner), and that in the 10-20 year window that the EU will fall apart, and we will be much much better off in that period.  in the longer term, it will probably equalise say 30-50 years it won't matter whether we leave now or when the EU implodes.

You maybe right, but you maybe wrong.

 

In such a massively important decision for people’s future, surely they do a deal first, or secure heads of terms with other countries first. It is normal is every decision we all make, so why not this one that impacts everyone.

 

I really think it is possible that we “could” benefit. But works like could, maybe, should, think and believe should be replaced by projections, deals, figures to show what will likely happen.

 

But they are not showing anything, so it’s a gut feel you have, and we shouldn’t be working on gut feel with peoples futures. 

 

Too many people taking sides on gut feel without any knowledge. We haven’t been supplied any. 

[Donk]

17 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

I have no doubt in my mind that Brexit would still win a 2nd Referendum, and that Boris would win a GE (possibly requiring some sort of deal with the Brexit party)

What KIND of brexit wins?

 

Im going to keep labouring this point

[Jon the Hat]

5 minutes ago, Rob1742 said:

You maybe right, but you maybe wrong.

 

In such a massively important decision for people’s future, surely they do a deal first, or secure heads of terms with other countries first. It is normal is every decision we all make, so why not this one that impacts everyone.

 

I really think it is possible that we “could” benefit. But works like could, maybe, should, think and believe should be replaced by projections, deals, figures to show what will likely happen.

 

But they are not showing anything, so it’s a gut feel you have, and we shouldn’t be working on gut feel with peoples futures. 

 

Too many people taking sides on gut feel without any knowledge. We haven’t been supplied any. 

You recall that treasury forecasts showed something like a 1-2% lower GDP over 30 years?  And that was on instructions from Cameron and Osborne.  

[Innovindil]

2 minutes ago, Donk said:

What KIND of brexit wins?

 

Im going to keep labouring this point

Hopefully one where we actually leave. 

[leicsmac]

31 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

It seems to me we are too far down this road to possibly think about turning back.  We need a clean break and move on.  Yes there will be some short term pain, but I still absolutely believe we will be a very successful nation in the medium term (5 years plus say, maybe sooner), and that in the 10-20 year window that the EU will fall apart, and we will be much much better off in that period.  in the longer term, it will probably equalise say 30-50 years it won't matter whether we leave now or when the EU implodes.

A quick question Jon, one that I've been looking for an answer for before...in the world as it exists today, do you believe the falling apart of the EU is desirous and why?

[David Guiza]

34 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

For those who want to remain still, can you explain how you think we could reform the EU, especially given the much weakened position we would find ourselves in?  How would you negotiate to continue our rebate and veto?  What would you put on the table?  What would your approach be to an EU army? To increasing costs of remaining in the EU?

In all honesty I don't know where we and Europe go from here. The EU are under increased scrutiny from numerous member states now, both directly through state figures and indirectly through restless citizens. You would like to think that the EU are self aware enough as to be more open to change than they have been previously, in order to prevent further upheaval in nations like Italy, Portugal and France. But the Europe is so divided by extreme politics and figures that there is no one solution. Populist movements have torn a seemingly irreparable hole.

 

Whilst it remains a valid option I will always seek to remain on the basis that I think the positives on the individual citizens outweighs the negatives, particularly from a legal perspective and, as I mentioned previously in the other thread, the Rule of Law is under far greater danger in a no-deal or hard-Brexit scenario than it ever has been or would be with remain. 

 

I don't see how we retract Article 50 and keep any sort of majority happy though, because compromise seems to be a thing of the past. Large numbers aren't going to be willing to accept A, B and C if it means that we also have to put up with D, E and F. And Boris certainly isn't the man to lead us in a European Britain, meaning yet more upheaval, hung Parliament, coalitions etc. Thank God we Dave saved us from that Miliband mess though . But then I really don't agree with leaving for the sake of making a clean break as it seems like a cutting of your nose to spite your face situation, solving nothing. 

 

I do also genuinely fear the reaction of some hardcore Brexit voters should we not leave the EU, or leave with a soft deal. The 'leave at all costs' mob are going to seek some sort of vengeance, as you could argue hardcore remainers would with a no-deal or hard-Brexit. 

[Donk]

25 minutes ago, Innovindil said:

Hopefully one where we actually leave. 

Thats not a proper answer and you knew that before you typed it

[Dames]

23 minutes ago, David Guiza said:

In all honesty I don't know where we and Europe go from here. The EU are under increased scrutiny from numerous member states now, both directly through state figures and indirectly through restless citizens. You would like to think that the EU are self aware enough as to be more open to change than they have been previously, in order to prevent further upheaval in nations like Italy, Portugal and France. But the Europe is so divided by extreme politics and figures that there is no one solution. Populist movements have torn a seemingly irreparable hole.

 

Whilst it remains a valid option I will always seek to remain on the basis that I think the positives on the individual citizens outweighs the negatives, particularly from a legal perspective and, as I mentioned previously in the other thread, the Rule of Law is under far greater danger in a no-deal or hard-Brexit scenario than it ever has been or would be with remain. 

 

I don't see how we retract Article 50 and keep any sort of majority happy though, because compromise seems to be a thing of the past. Large numbers aren't going to be willing to accept A, B and C if it means that we also have to put up with D, E and F. And Boris certainly isn't the man to lead us in a European Britain, meaning yet more upheaval, hung Parliament, coalitions etc. Thank God we Dave saved us from that Miliband mess though . But then I really don't agree with leaving for the sake of making a clean break as it seems like a cutting of your nose to spite your face situation, solving nothing. 

 

I do also genuinely fear the reaction of some hardcore Brexit voters should we not leave the EU, or leave with a soft deal. The 'leave at all costs' mob are going to seek some sort of vengeance, as you could argue hardcore remainers would with a no-deal or hard-Brexit. 

Remainers are a bit like the prawn sandwich brigade, they'll turn up and protest and moan as long as it remains the popular/in thing to do but eventually they'll get bored/distracted and move on.

 

The hard core leavers are the true danger in a scenario where they don't get what they want as many of them have gathered under the Brexit banner as they see it way of legitimizing their right wing views. Not all leavers are like this at all but the true danger between extreme remainers and extreme leavers is the extreme leavers.

[Buce]

1 minute ago, Dames said:

Remainers are a bit like the prawn sandwich brigade, they'll turn up and protest and moan as long as it remains the popular/in thing to do but eventually they'll get bored/distracted and move on.

 

The hard core leavers are the true danger in a scenario where they don't get what they want as many of them have gathered under the Brexit banner as they see it way of legitimizing their right wing views. Not all leavers are like this at all but the true danger between extreme remainers and extreme leavers is the extreme leavers.

 

All the more reason to oppose leaving then.

 

Since when did appeasing the Far Right do society any favours?

[David Guiza]

2 minutes ago, Dames said:

Remainers are a bit like the prawn sandwich brigade, they'll turn up and protest and moan as long as it remains the popular/in thing to do but eventually they'll get bored/distracted and move on.

 

The hard core leavers are the true danger in a scenario where they don't get what they want as many of them have gathered under the Brexit banner as they see it way of legitimizing their right wing views. Not all leavers are like this at all but the true danger between extreme remainers and extreme leavers is the extreme leavers.

Absolutely on the final point. From a simplistic point of view, the hardcore Remainers are pretty 'soft' and are more likely to bore and irritate you, and wear a suit with the EU flag on it, than do any actual harm. The extremists whom hide under the veil of Brexit however are genuinely dangerous.

 

Of course I don't think we should pander to them whatsoever, in fact the complete opposite, but it is a worrying prospect. 

[Dames]

Just now, Buce said:

 

All the more reason to oppose leaving then.

 

Since when did appeasing the Far Right do society any favours?

It has never done us any favours but there was a democratic vote and leave did win - that has to be honored in some respect. Unfortunately the flag waving and populism to score political points since the referendum was announced has turned the whole situation toxic beyond repair.

 

We are now in a situation where we leave and do short - mid term damage to the economy potentially ruining a lot of peoples lives in the process and risking conflict in Northern Ireland or we revoke article 50 and remain in the EU, the economy stays stable but there will be rioting and domestic terrorism.

 

Its a choice where sadly nobody wins because of how toxic this has turned. What annoys me more than anything is that the main drivers of the leave debate are not in fact patriotic or driven by a need to see their country thrive but rather self interest and greed to make millions off the uncertainty Brexit will cause in the market.

[Innovindil]

21 minutes ago, Donk said:

Thats not a proper answer and you knew that before you typed it

How is it not? 

 

Brexit doesn't end with leaving. Brexit STARTS with leaving. This current brexit where we can't leave isn't brexit at all, it's a cluster****. 

[StanSP]

2 hours ago, Rob1742 said:

Where is the plan, where is the good news, where are the positives? 

This is the thing for me. 

 

It's all 'take back control' but how? What does that actually mean? 

 

We've already seen several experts in their respective medical or scientific fields explain, in quite clear and simple terms, how much of a negative effect Brexit will cause on supplies for essential medicines and drugs etc. There's never anyone on Brexit's side saying anything in positivity in response to that. 

 

I genuinely can't remember or recall seeing anything positive about Brexit apart from the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer. 

 

And the fact that the government can't even pass through their own suggestions or deals or bills etc just goes to show how ambiguous this whole thing is. 

 

Supporters of Brexit spoke about 'sunlit uplands'. What did that even mean?! 

[Donk]

9 minutes ago, Innovindil said:

How is it not? 

 

Brexit doesn't end with leaving. Brexit STARTS with leaving. This current brexit where we can't leave isn't brexit at all, it's a cluster****. 

And it would be a terrible start to walk out on our existing situation and commitments to the EU, and then go back asking for a trade deal having told them to whistle over our financial commitments

 

Why not just start the process properly with a proper withdrawal agreement?

 

One that means we dont suffer needless  disruption and diminishing wealth.

[Innovindil]

4 minutes ago, Donk said:

And it would be a terrible start to walk out on our existing situation and commitments to the EU, and then go back asking for a trade deal having told them to whistle over our financial commitments

 

Why not just start the process properly with a proper withdrawal agreement?

 

One that means we dont suffer needless  disruption and diminishing wealth.

You'd have to ask all the MP's who rejected it. 

 

All I know is when this shitshow started, it did under the understanding that if a deal wasn't reached, we would leave without a deal. It has been 3 years with no deal, and we're no closer to having one. It's time to leave. You want people to have an informed choice, show them the alternative. Predictions and forecasts only go so far, we've seen that too over the last 3 years. 

 

Give us a chance, then we can all make a choice. If it's as crap as the doomsday predictions, we can go back with our tails between our legs to the cheers of the remainers. Without mass divisions, dodgy political ploys or potential civil unrest. 

[Donk]

5 minutes ago, Innovindil said:

You'd have to ask all the MP's who rejected it. 

 

All I know is when this shitshow started, it did under the understanding that if a deal wasn't reached, we would leave without a deal. It has been 3 years with no deal, and we're no closer to having one. It's time to leave. You want people to have an informed choice, show them the alternative. Predictions and forecasts only go so far, we've seen that too over the last 3 years. 

 

Give us a chance, then we can all make a choice. If it's as crap as the doomsday predictions, we can go back with our tails between our legs to the cheers of the remainers. Without mass divisions, dodgy political ploys or potential civil unrest. 

Just put defined plans against each other and ask what people want.

 

When the indicative votes were cast in parliament the closest one to achieving a majority was ken clarkes proposal.

 

Why not use that as a starting point, get a majority consensus on it in europe and here, put that to the people vs no deal and you should IMO give people the option to remain too, and then proceed with the decision the people clarify.

 

Im going to take zero pleasure in seeing you with your tail between your legs if im poorer. What a phoney war that would be.

Edited 4 September 2019 by Donk

[Innovindil]

1 minute ago, Donk said:

Just put defined plans against each other and ask what people want.

 

When the indicative votes were cast in parliament the closest one to achieving a majority was ken carkes proposal.

 

Why not use that as a starting point, get a majority consensus on it in europe and here, put that to the people vs no deal and you should IMO give people the option to remain too, and then proceed with the decision the people clarify.

 

Im going to take zero pleasure in seeing you with your tail between your legs if im poorer. What a phoney war that would be.

Because your plans will have the same failing. How are you going to have an informed decision? What if the people pick "wrong" again? Why does remain get an option when it's already lost? Are you informing people based on predictions that have been wrong time and again? Or are we somehow hoping these predictions are right this time? 

 

I know it keeps getting said, and keeps getting dismissed, but leave won the referendum, and we should leave. What happens after that needs to be decided after that. Then we can see where we are and what needs doing. We're judging no deal on the same shitetastic information we were given about what would happen after the leave vote.