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simFox

Corona Virus

By simFox, in General Chat

Mark
Message added by Mark

No political discussion in this topic. That is complaining about a country, a politician, a party and/or its voters, etc

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Costock_Fox

Costock_Fox

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, simFox said:

The death rate of flu is something like 0.013%. The death rate of Corona is around 2%, but we aren't sure yet.

 

The transmission rate of flu is around 1.3 people, the transmission rate or Corona is 2-3 people infected.

 

There are vaccines for many strains of flu

 

There are no vaccines for Corona virus and we don't have any built up immunity, this is a new virus that we don't know much about.

 

So compared to flu, it infects more, kills more and we have no immunity or vaccine.

 

 

Always look on the brighhhhtt side of life do do do do do do do do

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Raj

Raj

Posted
Posted
55 minutes ago, Strokes said:

Maybe they couldn’t drive a bus dressed like a beekeeper.

But they're letting the drivers sit there for 4 odd hours without a mask while some fecker is sat next to them in a mass space suit!!!

I'd atleadt ask if I get a bloody mask!!!!!

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leicsmac

leicsmac

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Aus Fox said:

Does this post come with any references or evidence?

On the off-chance this isn't purely sardonic...

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5935243/

 

"We estimated that 291 243–645 832 seasonal influenza-associated respiratory deaths (4·0–8·8 per 100 000 individuals) occur annually." So a fair bit more than 60 times than the current Coronavirus death count, as it happens - more like 600-2000.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51345855

 

More than 14,000 cases, more than 300 deaths" - using rule of thumb, that's 1 in 47, or 2.14%.

 

The last three "facts" are more a question of simple common sense than provable statistics.

 

 

 

 

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leicsmac

leicsmac

Posted
Posted

Or put it another way: at the current ~2% mortality rate, for Coronavirus to have the same death count as seasonal flu, it would need to infect approximately 20-25 million people.

 

The current infection count is not even one-thousandth of that and even the worst-case scenario projections likely fall underneath it.

 

Don't get me wrong, this is a nasty outbreak and containment needs to be a priority, but folks really don't need to flip out about this in the way some folks have.

 

Still, many of the public responses post-9/11 were an object lesson regarding something that is mightily scary but statistically unlikely to kill a person.

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simFox

simFox

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, leicsmac said:

On the off-chance this isn't purely sardonic...

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5935243/

 

"We estimated that 291 243–645 832 seasonal influenza-associated respiratory deaths (4·0–8·8 per 100 000 individuals) occur annually." So a fair bit more than 60 times than the current Coronavirus death count, as it happens - more like 600-2000.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51345855

 

More than 14,000 cases, more than 300 deaths" - using rule of thumb, that's 1 in 47, or 2.14%.

 

The last three "facts" are more a question of simple common sense than provable statistics.

 

 

 

 

Your stats assume that everyone who has got it, will recover. So far more people have died than recovered.

 

Flu has had hundreds of years to circulate, mutate and infect people.

 

Corona has been around for a few weeks.

 

Haven't seen people fall down in the street from flu.

 

 

download.jpeg

Edited by simFox
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leicsmac

leicsmac

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, simFox said:

Your stats assume that everyone who has got it, will recover. So far more people have died than recovered.

 

Flu has had hundreds of years to circulate, mutate and infect people.

 

Corona has been around for a few weeks.

 

Haven't seen people fall down in the street from flu.

 

 

download.jpeg

My stats assume a roughly 2% mortality rate as borne out by the information we have on current cases - of course given it's all very early doors and as you say the illness hasn't run its course in a lot of the cases yet that percentage may go down or up, but that's something to be factored into modelling and policy decisions if and when it happens rather than simply assuming it will.

 

What exactly is coronavirus if not another mutated respiratory virus?

 

Like I said, this outbreak needs careful handling, monitoring and isolation, but panic caused by lack of understanding of the virus and its effects will simply end up costing more lives than is necessary through people doing stupid things.

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simFox

simFox

Posted
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Posted
57 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

My stats assume a roughly 2% mortality rate as borne out by the information we have on current cases - of course given it's all very early doors and as you say the illness hasn't run its course in a lot of the cases yet that percentage may go down or up, but that's something to be factored into modelling and policy decisions if and when it happens rather than simply assuming it will.

 

What exactly is coronavirus if not another mutated respiratory virus?

 

Like I said, this outbreak needs careful handling, monitoring and isolation, but panic caused by lack of understanding of the virus and its effects will simply end up costing more lives than is necessary through people doing stupid things.

No one's panicking. All I'm reading is sensible discussion and facts. All except you, who seem hell bent on dismissing the severity.

 

Governments around the world aswell as respected global health organisations are implementing unprecedented emergency procedures, yet we should ignore all that because you say it's not as bad as the flu.

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leicsmac

leicsmac

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, simFox said:

No one's panicking. All I'm reading is sensible discussion and facts. All except you, who seem hell bent on dismissing the severity.

 

Governments around the world aswell as respected global health organisations are implementing unprecedented emergency procedures, yet we should ignore all that because you say it's not as bad as the flu.

...is that what I was doing?

 

 When I stated rather clearly (twice) that "this outbreak needs careful handling, monitoring and isolation" I evidently wasn't being clear enough. Apologies.

 

Allow me to state it for the third time with a little more emphasis to ensure the implication that this is a severe situation is noted: This outbreak needs careful handling, monitoring and isolation.

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Carl the Llama

Carl the Llama

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, leicsmac said:

Or put it another way: at the current ~2% mortality rate, for Coronavirus to have the same death count as seasonal flu, it would need to infect approximately 20-25 million people.

 

The current infection count is not even one-thousandth of that and even the worst-case scenario projections likely fall underneath it.

 

Don't get me wrong, this is a nasty outbreak and containment needs to be a priority, but folks really don't need to flip out about this in the way some folks have.

 

Still, many of the public responses post-9/11 were an object lesson regarding something that is mightily scary but statistically unlikely to kill a person.

Forgive me if I'm missing something blindingly obvious but if it's not even as harmful as the flu why have some countries locked down travel from China?  Bit of an overreaction, isn't it?

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st albans fox

st albans fox

Posted
Posted

Sorry but how the Fock can you compare the flu and this virus ?  This virus has only existed for a couple months ....it’s plain silly and potentially dangerous for public health safety to downplay the seriousness of this. We are currently not in any danger and if the world outside China remains vigilant then that will continue.  Hopefully the Chinese can keep their population safe .... todays news is that govt in areas east of the affected provinces have told non essential business’ not to reopen until the 17th (9 days later than previous)   .... the stable door may just about be closed but it’s touch and go imo ....... 

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Trav Le Bleu

Trav Le Bleu

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Costock_Fox said:

Sneezing into elbows?!?

 

4 hours ago, pds said:

Was thinking that. Can't get my mouth anywhere near my elbow!

It's into the crook of your arm. I always think of the elbow as being the outer, bony part, but sneezing into your "elbow" means you sneeze onto part of yourself that is unlikely to come into contact with others.

 

 

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