Corona Virus

[Trav Le Bleu]

11 hours ago, WigstonWanderer said:

That sounds bad 

 

What is the typical time from first symptoms to death (or survival)? If it’s 10 days or more I’d estimate the death rate to be 4 times the nominal rate (2 doublings), so maybe 10% or more. Hopefully I’ve got this wrong.

Worse than that, if the figures are accurate and it's a constant rate, by 4 months it's over a billion, by 5, it's the whole world.

 

Of course, containment measures should slow that and the general population should build more resistance.

[Wrighty22]

On 03/02/2020 at 09:00, yorkie1999 said:

You've got to admit, being able to build a 1000 patient hospital in 8 days is pretty impressive, We'd spend 2 years deciding on the location,  5 years on consultancy, be over budget by a couple of billion and still not get anything built.

You can triple all those numbers if there are crested newts on the proposed site.

[yorkie1999]

4 hours ago, Wrighty22 said:

You can triple all those numbers if there are crested newts on the proposed site.

Whilst the Chinese would just fry em up and eat them

[st albans fox]

23 hours ago, Izzy said:

Apparently bookings at some British Chinese restaurants were about 50% down this weekend because of fear over this 

I’ve read about WhatsApp groups advising on how to tell if food has come from China ..... ignorance isn’t always bliss .........

[twoleftfeet]

The Knock on effect to the global economy of the corona virus, could be bad.

  https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51383284

https://www.ft.com/content/48bae4c0-472e-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a30767235/coronavirus-hyundai-china-korea-factory-shutdowns/

Currently the factories in china are shut until the 13th I believe but who knows if the time line will be moved.

[st albans fox]

9 hours ago, twoleftfeet said:

The Knock on effect to the global economy of the corona virus, could be bad.

  https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51383284

https://www.ft.com/content/48bae4c0-472e-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a30767235/coronavirus-hyundai-china-korea-factory-shutdowns/

Currently the factories in china are shut until the 13th I believe but who knows if the time line will be moved.

17th in regions to the south of Shanghai and we are told to prepare for the likelihood of no February production at all .....

[ithuriel]

So one of the whistle blowers who was arrested by the police, a Doctor, has died from this virus.

[EnderbyFox]

These weird little portable quarantine boxes are dead creepy

 

 

 

[Beechey]

35 minutes ago, EnderbyFox said:

These weird little portable quarantine boxes are dead creepy

 

 

 

That’s pretty grim

[rachhere]

1 hour ago, EnderbyFox said:

These weird little portable quarantine boxes are dead creepy

 

 

 

Seriously, I am claustrophobic, that would finish me off right there. 
 

Just been reading about the whistleblower dying - only 34... Made me think, what reports have we had on the proportion people who have made a full recovery from the virus?

[fuchsntf]

Can I still have a Chinese takeaway.....

[Stadt]

The Chinese government is the absolute worst in the world as far as I'm concerned. There's worse places but in terms of the scale and the impact of their authoritarian actions they're the most dangerously awful. Russia (although they're awfully oppressive) are painted as public enemy no. 1 in the west but China are even more expansionist and have so little regard for their own citizens' lives, let alone everyone else's.

Edited 7 February 2020 by Stadt

[simFox]

4 hours ago, rachhere said:

Seriously, I am claustrophobic, that would finish me off right there. 
 

Just been reading about the whistleblower dying - only 34... Made me think, what reports have we had on the proportion people who have made a full recovery from the virus?

I find this to be the best source for tracking the virus spread, deaths and recovery.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[simFox]

Seems to be a steady increase in deaths though. Inline with new cases.

[ithuriel]

The Chinese official number of cases has now passed 31000 with over 600 deaths, would not be surprised if it is actually far more than this.

Just stated on Sky News that the third person who has contracted this virus and who returned to this country caught the bug in Singapore.

 

[ithuriel]

Amazing really.

 

[WigstonWanderer]

4 hours ago, simFox said:

Seems to be a steady increase in deaths though. Inline with new cases.

Perhaps a slight glimmer of hope, the logarithmic chart seems to show a tail off. Not sure how significant this is though, or how much can we trust the stats.

[WigstonWanderer]

2 hours ago, ithuriel said:

The Chinese official number of cases has now passed 31000 with over 600 deaths, would not be surprised if it is actually far more than this.

Just stated on Sky News that the third person who has contracted this virus and who returned to this country caught the bug in Singapore.

 

This is the most worrying aspect, particularly as I have relatives in Singapore at present and then coming here.

[Bayfox]

8 hours ago, fuchsntf said:

Can I still have a Chinese takeaway.....

If you don't mind a few dead bodies instead of duck.

[fuchsntf]

1 hour ago, Bayfox said:

If you don't mind a few dead bodies instead of duck.

Gives a new meaning to...... "Alright me duck"

[st albans fox]

2 hours ago, WigstonWanderer said:

Perhaps a slight glimmer of hope, the logarithmic chart seems to show a tail off. Not sure how significant this is though, or how much can we trust the stats.

Nope - our contacts in the country say it’s getting worse 

 

I really hope that the govt aren’t allowing business’ in large swathes of the country to reopen on Monday to avoid Global bad publicity and to present an image they want to

 

as far as the Chinese respect for life is concerned, it’s not just the govt - whilst they have the same love etc for their own families as we do, many of the people will do what they need to in order to ‘get on’ ... as a supplier once said to me when I was asking about compliance and certification authenticity - ‘ we poison our babies in this country - no one is going to care about fraudulent certificates’ ....... this goes back to the dodgy milk powder that led to many babies dying - there is a deep mistrust of things out there ....

Edited 7 February 2020 by st albans fox

[simFox]

2 hours ago, WigstonWanderer said:

Perhaps a slight glimmer of hope, the logarithmic chart seems to show a tail off. Not sure how significant this is though, or how much can we trust the stats.

Logarithmic graph shapes are always inverse, that's why it's logarithmic.

Edited 7 February 2020 by simFox

[WigstonWanderer]

1 minute ago, simFox said:

Logarithmic graph shapes are always inverse, that's why it's logarithmic.

Genuinely confused 

[WigstonWanderer]

12 hours ago, Beechey said:

That’s pretty grim

Perhaps this will be their Chernobyl. Gorbachev is rumoured to have credited that disaster with the fall of the Soviet Union.

[Alf Bentley]

7 minutes ago, WigstonWanderer said:

Perhaps this will be their Chernobyl. Gorbachev is rumoured to have credited that disaster with the fall of the Soviet Union.

 

Unlikely, unless it become an absolutely massive catastrophe, surely?

 

The USSR had been struggling economically for years due to low growth & crippling military spending during the Cold War.

Until recently, the Chinese economy was still growing rapidly & at least a decent proportion of the population had improving living standards, notwithstanding the lack of freedom, social/environmental problems etc.