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simFox

Corona Virus

By simFox, in General Chat

Mark
Message added by Mark

No political discussion in this topic. That is complaining about a country, a politician, a party and/or its voters, etc

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Alf Bentley

Alf Bentley

Posted
Posted

Until I looked into this issue, I didn't know that The Knack's "My Sharona" (1979) is a real person. Indeed, she's the girl on the record cover (below).

 

I also discovered:

- That when the geezer sang about "my Sharona", she wasn't "his" at all. She was going out with someone else, who must have been mightily pissed off. 

- She did subsequently go out with the singer for several years but allegedly dumped him due to his drug-taking, though they remained friends.

- Sharona married someone else, became a successful estate agent & is now in her late 50s living in California.

- The Knack's singer died in his late 50s - from cancer, not the Sharona virus - and Sharona was among those who helped look after him in his final months

 

Oh! It's the Corona virus you're talking about! Just ignore me, then.... ;)

 

 

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leicsmac

leicsmac

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On the topic of mathematical projections of all this, one of my friends better versed in the art than I am had a little something to say on it yesterday:

 

There is reason to be cautiously optimistic of the latest Coronavirus numbers. Total cases were up 3,723, for February 5, but that was less than the 3,927 from February 4. A variety of visualizations are here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/

 

The increase in total confirmed infections dating back to January 27 goes +64%, +29%, +22%, +22%, +19%, +19%, +19%, +15%. The string of +19s was very concerning, as it suggested that the growth rate of the virus might be geometric. If that were the case, the implication would be that eventually, all 7.7 billion people would get it, and the death toll would be about 150 million. We have a pattern in the data that suggests that might not happen.

What we seem to have is not a geometric growth, but growth of a quadratic form: ax^2 + bx +c (math nerds: of course it is really a differential equation but this is a good approximation with the released data). The specific quadratic form I've seen published (https://docs.google.com/…/2PACX-1vSc9Si9Dohl3bs7v…/pubchart…) doesn't seem to match the numbers I see, but there definitely looks like there is a quadratic form. Some typo in there, it seems.

 

The prediction has no fewer caveats than the data itself. Transmission seems like it should be geometric, up to a very high point. But there are issues holding back the "measured infections" and it is not yet clear which of those have the greatest force.

One issue is the capacity for testing. Hebei is overwhelmed. Plenty of people are staying home. Many areas of the world don't yet have any testing facilities (there are NO reported cases in Africa). As systems gain the infrastructure to deal with this, there could be some some large increases in reported numbers that do not actually signify an increase in infections.

 

Another issue is intervention. Hebei is on lockdown. Hangzhou, 758 km east of Wuhan, is also allowing members of the household out only every 2 days, for 2 hours at a time. Several airlines have suspended flights to China and several countries have placed restrictions on travellers who have been in China recently. Then there is the tireless work of healthcare workers and others across the globe to inform the public and intervene to protect citizens. These make a difference and will hopefully allow us to contain the virus."

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Mike Oxlong

Mike Oxlong

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, leicsmac said:

On the topic of mathematical projections of all this, one of my friends better versed in the art than I am had a little something to say on it yesterday:

 

There is reason to be cautiously optimistic of the latest Coronavirus numbers. Total cases were up 3,723, for February 5, but that was less than the 3,927 from February 4. A variety of visualizations are here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/

 

The increase in total confirmed infections dating back to January 27 goes +64%, +29%, +22%, +22%, +19%, +19%, +19%, +15%. The string of +19s was very concerning, as it suggested that the growth rate of the virus might be geometric. If that were the case, the implication would be that eventually, all 7.7 billion people would get it, and the death toll would be about 150 million. We have a pattern in the data that suggests that might not happen.

What we seem to have is not a geometric growth, but growth of a quadratic form: ax^2 + bx +c (math nerds: of course it is really a differential equation but this is a good approximation with the released data). The specific quadratic form I've seen published (https://docs.google.com/…/2PACX-1vSc9Si9Dohl3bs7v…/pubchart…) doesn't seem to match the numbers I see, but there definitely looks like there is a quadratic form. Some typo in there, it seems.

 

The prediction has no fewer caveats than the data itself. Transmission seems like it should be geometric, up to a very high point. But there are issues holding back the "measured infections" and it is not yet clear which of those have the greatest force.

One issue is the capacity for testing. Hebei is overwhelmed. Plenty of people are staying home. Many areas of the world don't yet have any testing facilities (there are NO reported cases in Africa). As systems gain the infrastructure to deal with this, there could be some some large increases in reported numbers that do not actually signify an increase in infections.

 

Another issue is intervention. Hebei is on lockdown. Hangzhou, 758 km east of Wuhan, is also allowing members of the household out only every 2 days, for 2 hours at a time. Several airlines have suspended flights to China and several countries have placed restrictions on travellers who have been in China recently. Then there is the tireless work of healthcare workers and others across the globe to inform the public and intervene to protect citizens. These make a difference and will hopefully allow us to contain the virus."

Your friends are quite different to my friends :)

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Carl the Llama

Carl the Llama

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, leicsmac said:

On the topic of mathematical projections of all this, one of my friends better versed in the art than I am had a little something to say on it yesterday:

 

There is reason to be cautiously optimistic of the latest Coronavirus numbers. Total cases were up 3,723, for February 5, but that was less than the 3,927 from February 4. A variety of visualizations are here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/

 

The increase in total confirmed infections dating back to January 27 goes +64%, +29%, +22%, +22%, +19%, +19%, +19%, +15%. The string of +19s was very concerning, as it suggested that the growth rate of the virus might be geometric. If that were the case, the implication would be that eventually, all 7.7 billion people would get it, and the death toll would be about 150 million. We have a pattern in the data that suggests that might not happen.

What we seem to have is not a geometric growth, but growth of a quadratic form: ax^2 + bx +c (math nerds: of course it is really a differential equation but this is a good approximation with the released data). The specific quadratic form I've seen published (https://docs.google.com/…/2PACX-1vSc9Si9Dohl3bs7v…/pubchart…) doesn't seem to match the numbers I see, but there definitely looks like there is a quadratic form. Some typo in there, it seems.

 

The prediction has no fewer caveats than the data itself. Transmission seems like it should be geometric, up to a very high point. But there are issues holding back the "measured infections" and it is not yet clear which of those have the greatest force.

One issue is the capacity for testing. Hebei is overwhelmed. Plenty of people are staying home. Many areas of the world don't yet have any testing facilities (there are NO reported cases in Africa). As systems gain the infrastructure to deal with this, there could be some some large increases in reported numbers that do not actually signify an increase in infections.

 

Another issue is intervention. Hebei is on lockdown. Hangzhou, 758 km east of Wuhan, is also allowing members of the household out only every 2 days, for 2 hours at a time. Several airlines have suspended flights to China and several countries have placed restrictions on travellers who have been in China recently. Then there is the tireless work of healthcare workers and others across the globe to inform the public and intervene to protect citizens. These make a difference and will hopefully allow us to contain the virus."

Do you still maintain this is no more concerning than seasonal flu?  Looking at data like that then considering the allegations of China covering up the true number of cases (certainly early on) and the reactions of governments outside of China to the 'threat' and it's hard not to conclude that there's something we're not being told about the nature of the virus.  I like to think I'm normally pretty good at seeing through conspiratorial guff but I'm really struggling with this one, the 'facts' just don't add up.

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Kopfkino

Kopfkino

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Posted
2 hours ago, Carl the Llama said:

Do you still maintain this is no more concerning than seasonal flu?  Looking at data like that then considering the allegations of China covering up the true number of cases (certainly early on) and the reactions of governments outside of China to the 'threat' and it's hard not to conclude that there's something we're not being told about the nature of the virus.  I like to think I'm normally pretty good at seeing through conspiratorial guff but I'm really struggling with this one, the 'facts' just don't add up.

At no point did he say it was no more concerning than seasonal flu, in fact he has repeatedly said the outbreak is of concern, but just highlighted that in terms of raw figures it's got to go some to kill the same as the flu does and with containment efforts that is less likely. 

 

I don't see why there's anything we're not being told. It's obvious that we don't want a novel virus that can take out x% of the population circulating the world. Nothing hidden about that. 

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simFox

simFox

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35 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

At no point did he say it was no more concerning than seasonal flu, in fact he has repeatedly said the outbreak is of concern, but just highlighted that in terms of raw figures it's got to go some to kill the same as the flu does and with containment efforts that is less likely. 

 

I don't see why there's anything we're not being told. It's obvious that we don't want a novel virus that can take out x% of the population circulating the world. Nothing hidden about that. 

I think he means China. It does have a whiff of a cover up. We have reports of a lack of test kits, so they're only testing people with the worst symptoms and also holding back test kits for the medical staff. Yet everyday we seem to be getting the same increase in cases, which on a percentage basis could be deemed an improvement, I'm not so sure sure.

 

The biggest problem in my view will be supply chains.

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simFox

simFox

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3 hours ago, Wet Trump said:

There’s every chance that there could be 100,000+ people infected by this virus so the 2% mortality rate could actually be much, much lower.

 

:unsure::fc:

Also, not everyone dying will be dying from Corona virus.

 

It's a bit misleading to measure infections against deaths as we don't know the outcomes to those infections.

 

It's a bit worrying how the whistle blower doctor bought it, he was a healthy looking chap in his 30s and likely given a good quality of care.

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leicsmac

leicsmac

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Posted
7 hours ago, Carl the Llama said:

Do you still maintain this is no more concerning than seasonal flu?  Looking at data like that then considering the allegations of China covering up the true number of cases (certainly early on) and the reactions of governments outside of China to the 'threat' and it's hard not to conclude that there's something we're not being told about the nature of the virus.  I like to think I'm normally pretty good at seeing through conspiratorial guff but I'm really struggling with this one, the 'facts' just don't add up.

@Kopfkino has pretty much said what I wanted to say regarding the coronavirus and seasonal flu (thank you very much my friend), I'd agree that it is entirely possible there is a coverup given the nature of the Chinese government but more than that they prioritise what is in their best interests. Being transparent on this one and thus keeping the body count (and therefore public opinion) under control might well be that.

 

As for the figures themselves, the only thing I'll add is the next week or so might be critical in seeing if the number of cases is rising in a quadratic function as my friend says (good news), or it's actually geometric (bad news), so we'll know soon enough.

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twoleftfeet

twoleftfeet

Posted
Posted

We will know the mortality rate for sure in the coming weeks. Now the are fair few infected people on the cruise ship in Japan. Got to feel sorry for those on board the is no escaping from the vessel. And if incubation is 14 days they will need to be on there what 3 weeks (i am guessing the most be some protocol)after the last case? 

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ithuriel

ithuriel

Posted
Posted (edited)

Just seen that a British family in France have been diagnosed, caught it in Singapore.

Needs a name me thinks, maybe the Wuhan Flu, the little yellow peril:ph34r: bad humour always comes out with disasters.

 

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Desabafar

Desabafar

Posted
Posted

I seen that some of th dead are being registered as pneumonia as cause of death so definitely the numbers are lower than reality. 

 

This is going to really hurt global economy if it carries on like this

Hope something happens to stop this in its tracks as it looks like it could easily go to a pandemic atm

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yorkie1999

yorkie1999

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, Trav Le Bleu said:

You know how they keep showing deserted streets in China because of the quarantine measures?

 

What if it's not because of that, but it's because they're all dead?

 

:ph34r:

No more eBay knock offs then. We’re all fvcked.

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fuchsntf

fuchsntf

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 07/02/2020 at 12:34, simFox said:

Another site here. 

https://thewuhanvirus.com/

 

This graph is worrying...

 

 

Screenshot_20200207-123248.jpg

100 of Thousand die every year of either,some flu,pneumonia,other viruses......

 

would be Interesting,if Somebody did a Graph & pie chart,of all > influenza,flu,colds,diarrhea-relevant,viruses <

Going und Coming from travels,locally and international......Age-groups & areas....etc..!!

 

Its just we have an Another name, and across various Parts of the world,People become infected & die,as mentioned from various normal und known strains...

Are we going OTT,then on this and ignore others..!!!

BTW.....Its not a critic,just observations & questions...

 

 

 

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Sampson

Sampson

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Posted
18 hours ago, fuchsntf said:

100 of Thousand die every year of either,some flu,pneumonia,other viruses......

 

would be Interesting,if Somebody did a Graph & pie chart,of all > influenza,flu,colds,diarrhea-relevant,viruses <

Going und Coming from travels,locally and international......Age-groups & areas....etc..!!

 

Its just we have an Another name, and across various Parts of the world,People become infected & die,as mentioned from various normal und known strains...

Are we going OTT,then on this and ignore others..!!!

BTW.....Its not a critic,just observations & questions...

 

 

 

No! And I wish people would stop with this "it's just to fill the papers" "it's just a normal flu" crap.

 

You can be symptomless for 14 days and no one has ever had this virus before so no ones immune symptom is due to battle it. Currently 1 person infected passes it onto 3 or 4 people. And 3% of the population does from it not >0.01% like normal flu.

 

Unchecked and without quarantine and international safety measures, there's no reason every person on the planet couldn't catch this and hundreds of millions of people would die.

 

Atm the quarenteen etc. is doing well holding back the tide and people outside China shouldnt be panicking yet. But the media and government response has been absolutely just and way more than just standard seasonal flu.

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