Coronavirus Thread

[Chrysalis]

5 hours ago, Corky said:

Noticeable on the news and radio I've heard the amount of people wanting tests when their child/ grandchild has symptoms.

 

Virtually all were looking for a youngster to get tested.

It does seem kids going back to school has crashed the testing network.

[Leicester_Loyal]

1 hour ago, Chrysalis said:

It does seem kids going back to school has crashed the testing network.

I read as well that a lot of the people working in the labs were young students, who have now gone back to university, so there's a shortage of workers, not sure how true that actually is though.

[st albans fox]

4 hours ago, Dan LCFC said:

More people should see this. It's a total scandal.

So the uptick in covid deaths across Europe some weeks later is  a ‘’deathdemic’ and just co incidence ? 

 

I don’t expect to see anything like March/April in this respect but then again, nowhere has locked down like they did so we are likely to see less deaths with less restrictions when the periods are compared. isn’t that a good thing?  If we have no restrictions then perhaps we will see a repeat of the spring situation in the hospitals and care homes. 

[st albans fox]

5 hours ago, Strokes said:

Do you think the kids just disperse and go home after realising the park is closed?

Some will, many Won’t . The easier you make it for them to congregate, the more likely they will 

the local council are taking the easy option to clear their desks on this.  Govt not effectively dealing with the increase in infectious rates is going to lead to a place no one wants to go back to - that’s all. 

 

if we all do a little bit then we can avoid that - if we all can’t be bothered because we don’t believe then we could end up losing a lot more collectively than we are being asked to now.  
 

if by wearing a covering and abiding by distancing rules means that we can continue with the ‘current normal’ as opposed to what we had in the spring then why not do it?  if you believe that we’re headed back there in any case then I can understand but my take is that those who don’t want to abide by any of the restrictions don’t believe that there will be any need for a second ‘nationwide lockdown’ under any circumstances. 

[joachim1965]

9 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

So the uptick in covid deaths across Europe some weeks later is  a ‘’deathdemic’ and just co incidence ? 

 

I don’t expect to see anything like March/April in this respect but then again, nowhere has locked down like they did so we are likely to see less deaths with less restrictions when the periods are compared. isn’t that a good thing?  If we have no restrictions then perhaps we will see a repeat of the spring situation in the hospitals and care homes. 

there is no uptick in deaths, what are the actual figures of deaths directly due to covid, not just deaths for any reason but with a positive test within 28 days, a test which is now being shown to be unreliable.

whilst we stay in a state of panic for no reason this "casedemic" will carry on indefinitely. 

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

35 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

So the uptick in covid deaths across Europe some weeks later is  a ‘’deathdemic’ and just co incidence ? 

 

I don’t expect to see anything like March/April in this respect but then again, nowhere has locked down like they did so we are likely to see less deaths with less restrictions when the periods are compared. isn’t that a good thing?  If we have no restrictions then perhaps we will see a repeat of the spring situation in the hospitals and care homes. 

10000 people die every week in England and Wales, over 500000 a year die, people will die, but to say “COVID deaths” is not the whole story is it? I realise you are talking about deaths on the continent but the same applies here, the underlying health issues is the key phrase that many miss out.

I realise that this may come across as callous only it’s not meant that way, there are a lot of already poorly people, suffering with various diseases and just to put them down as COVID deaths is wrong.

There will be an uptick in deaths this winter as there is in every winter and I’m sure COVID will be on many a death certificate of those suffering with pneumonia, the flu, terminal cancer etc etc 

Edited 17 September 2020 by Mark 'expert' Lawrenson

[reynard]

3 hours ago, Chrysalis said:

It does seem kids going back to school has crashed the testing network.

Well it was what happened in Scotland but our clueless government didn't seem to take notice. England could easily have staggered the return to school over a whole month by eating into next summer's holiday and even Easter holidays. It isn't as if the kids have had much time off recently is it. Spreading the return to school would have at least staggered the implosion in people wanting tests or needing them to get kids and teachers back to school.

[Lionator]

6 hours ago, Nod.E said:

After some preposterous modelling of likely deaths from Covid-19 by Professor Neil Ferguson and his Imperial College crew, British politicians panicked. The Swedes, led by their chief epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, didn’t. Britain and Sweden had wanted to control rather than try to eliminate the virus, letting it spread slowly through the population until a measure of general immunity was reached. We lost our nerve and Sweden was left almost alone in the world (and widely condemned: Imperial’s model predicted 85,000 deaths there; the total so far is 5,851). They proceeded with a mostly voluntary, common-sense code — schools, factories, businesses and restaurants stayed open — while we took a wrecking ball to our economy. Spain, which reacted with the fiercest lockdown, now tops the league of “second-wave” infection. Sweden is at the bottom.” – The Times

The Swedish population is completely different to the British. You won’t see scenes of overcrowded bars and streets in Stockholm or Gothenburg even now. Scandinavian culture promotes social distancing as it is, they’re at a massive advantage. Whereas if you give brits an inch, they’ll evidently take a mile. The idea that life carried on as normal in Sweden is a lie. 
 

Germany also doesn’t seem to be having a clear second wave, and that’s more down to competent governance and an educated population. 

[CosbehFox]

7 hours ago, Nod.E said:

After some preposterous modelling of likely deaths from Covid-19 by Professor Neil Ferguson and his Imperial College crew, British politicians panicked. The Swedes, led by their chief epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, didn’t. Britain and Sweden had wanted to control rather than try to eliminate the virus, letting it spread slowly through the population until a measure of general immunity was reached. We lost our nerve and Sweden was left almost alone in the world (and widely condemned: Imperial’s model predicted 85,000 deaths there; the total so far is 5,851). They proceeded with a mostly voluntary, common-sense code — schools, factories, businesses and restaurants stayed open — while we took a wrecking ball to our economy. Spain, which reacted with the fiercest lockdown, now tops the league of “second-wave” infection. Sweden is at the bottom.” – The Times

Sweden is interesting. 
 

It’s not quite the restriction free tale it’s painted to be, see below from the BBC. 

 

Sweden has largely relied on voluntary social distancing guidelines since the start of the pandemic, including working from home where possible and avoiding public transport. 

There's also been a ban on gatherings of more than 50 people, restrictions on visiting care homes, and a shift to table-only service in bars and restaurants. 

Sweden had its biggest death toll (at half way stage of the year) in 150 years as the virus took hold of its care homes.
 

Where it was impressive is the second wave and how the infection rate has stayed so low. 
 

Ultimately it’s a victory for as much as Swedish society as it is science. Also it’s population density is very, very different to a lot of European countries largely due to its social democratic politics and belief in a working welfare state.

Edited 17 September 2020 by Cardiff_Fox

[joachim1965]

 

[st albans fox]

36 minutes ago, joachim1965 said:

there is no uptick in deaths, what are the actual figures of deaths directly due to covid, not just deaths for any reason but with a positive test within 28 days, a test which is now being shown to be unreliable.

whilst we stay in a state of panic for no reason this "casedemic" will carry on indefinitely. 

Let’s look at the seven day rolling average in a week and then another week  .....

[simFox]

56 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

So the uptick in covid deaths across Europe some weeks later is  a ‘’deathdemic’ and just co incidence ? 

 

I don’t expect to see anything like March/April in this respect but then again, nowhere has locked down like they did so we are likely to see less deaths with less restrictions when the periods are compared. isn’t that a good thing?  If we have no restrictions then perhaps we will see a repeat of the spring situation in the hospitals and care homes. 

Covid hasn't gone away, it will still kill people, if you think you are going to eradicate it then you're in Dreamland. People die everyday, we don't shut the road network due to the daily amount of road fatalities. You need to get some perspective. 450-550 people for everyday of cancer on average, just in the UK.

 

People need to get a serious grip on reality, until this pandemic I doubt people ever noticed it cared about just how many people die everyday in the UK, we had a flu outbreak in 17-18 with 50,000 excess deaths and no one batted an eyelid. Now 10-20 people die in one day of covid and we lockdown entire cities, cut off health care and put curfews on parks and tell everyone they need to wear masks.

 

 

 

Edited 17 September 2020 by simFox

[CosbehFox]

13 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

Sweden is interesting. 
 

It’s not quite the restriction free tale it’s painted to be, see below from the BBC. 

 

Sweden has largely relied on voluntary social distancing guidelines since the start of the pandemic, including working from home where possible and avoiding public transport. 

There's also been a ban on gatherings of more than 50 people, restrictions on visiting care homes, and a shift to table-only service in bars and restaurants. 

Sweden had its biggest death toll (at half way stage of the year) in 150 years as the virus took hold of its care homes.
 

Where it was impressive is the second wave and how the infection rate has stayed so low. 
 

Ultimately it’s a victory for as much as Swedish society as it is science. Also it’s population density is very, very different to a lot of European countries largely due to its social democratic politics and belief in a working welfare state.

Just thinking this through further that means that most Swedish employers would have encouraged working from home and their staff wouldn’t be going across the country either (which is where we differ from a lot of European countries who economically trade within their region rather than country).  
 

You only have to see the ‘return back to the offices’ stick we were getting from our govt, to see the societal differences. 
 

It also makes me wonder about Sweden’s hospital capacity. Did they have enough if the worst was to happen? 
 

 

Edited 17 September 2020 by Cardiff_Fox

[leicsmac]

I'm sorry, am I on FT or a comment thread on most science news articles on Facebook? I honestly couldn't tell with the influx of YouTube videos standing in for peer reviewed scientific research.

 

At least it's not climate change denial ,I guess.

 

This has been asked before, but: is there any citable, proven, credible evidence that we now know enough about this virus to be absolutely sure of opening up and not in the process experience consequences worse than by not doing so?

Edited 17 September 2020 by leicsmac

[joachim1965]

5 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Let’s look at the seven day rolling average in a week and then another week  .....

if you record every death as covid you will see an "uptick" in covid deaths, but to record a death as covid purely on a positive test within 28 days of death is driving false figures.

If I take a pcr test and it comes back positive and three weeks later I get run over by a bus ,I will be recorded as a covid death, how can you put forward a credible argument when the figures are based on this.

[joachim1965]

2 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

I'm sorry, am I on FT or a comment thread on most science news articles on Facebook? I honestly couldn't tell with the influx of YouTube videos standing in for peer reviewed scientific research.

 

At least it's not climate change denial ,I guess.

 

This has been asked before, but: is there any citable, proven, credible evidence that we now know enough about this virus to be absolutely sure of opening up and not in the process experience consequences worse than by not doing so?

are you saying that Ivor Cummins is wrong?

Seems extremely credible and looks to be backed by excellent data.

[simFox]

2 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

Just thinking this through further that means that most Swedish employers would have encouraged working from home and their staff wouldn’t be going across the country either (which is where we differ from a lot of European countries who economically trade within their region rather than country).  
 

You only have to see the ‘return back to the offices’ stick we were getting from our govt, to see the societal differences. 
 

It also makes me wonder about Sweden’s hospital capacity. Did they have enough if the worst was to happen? 
 

 

What it's aye irrelevant when the Swedes had a coherent plan and stick to it and managed the virus with reasonable controls on place on the economy.

 

Lockdown did nothing, look at Peru and Brazil, Peru had a military lockdown and came out worse. Brazil's numbers look bad standalone, but against their population numbers it is pretty well managed with minimal restrictions.

 

Look at all the States US States and compare those that locked down and those that didn't. Florida is easy part the worst with declining infections and deaths, a few months time they will be down to base line with no lockdowns, curfews or rules of 6.

 

Australia is interesting, it's gone full totalitarian over a virus with some quite severe human right violations which the population are suffering. Yet still the virus springs up. Let's see what happens over there, but my prediction is that eradication is futile, because once they do open up, vaccine or not, it will hit them.

[st albans fox]

7 minutes ago, joachim1965 said:

if you record every death as covid you will see an "uptick" in covid deaths, but to record a death as covid purely on a positive test within 28 days of death is driving false figures.

If I take a pcr test and it comes back positive and three weeks later I get run over by a bus ,I will be recorded as a covid death, how can you put forward a credible argument when the figures are based on this.

The number of those bus deaths’  is very small and not statistically material 

 

a month ago we were seeing single figure daily deaths across the whole of Europe 

[st albans fox]

5 minutes ago, simFox said:

What it's aye irrelevant when the Swedes had a coherent plan and stick to it and managed the virus with reasonable controls on place on the economy.

 

Lockdown did nothing, look at Peru and Brazil, Peru had a military lockdown and came out worse. Brazil's numbers look bad standalone, but against their population numbers it is pretty well managed with minimal restrictions.

 

Look at all the States US States and compare those that locked down and those that didn't. Florida is easy part the worst with declining infections and deaths, a few months time they will be down to base line with no lockdowns, curfews or rules of 6.

 

Australia is interesting, it's gone full totalitarian over a virus with some quite severe human right violations which the population are suffering. Yet still the virus springs up. Let's see what happens over there, but my prediction is that eradication is futile, because once they do open up, vaccine or not, it will hit them.

correct .....but if there is a vaccine by then then that’s not entirely true ??
 

there is no magic bullet answer

 

we are currently walking a tightrope ......why the need to jump down on one side or the other 

 

Our lockdowns aren’t stringent in any sense of the word - I mean no one is actually ‘locked down’ are they.  

 

 

[joachim1965]

Just now, st albans fox said:

The number of those bus deaths’  is very small and not statistically material 

 

a month ago we were seeing single figure daily deaths across the whole of Europe 

OK then, let's use Cancer.  Same outcome. covid death due to a positive test within 28 days. The pcr test is flawed , it can detect old and inactive virus.

The bus death was just one example but people are certainly not dying of covid.

[leicsmac]

11 minutes ago, joachim1965 said:

are you saying that Ivor Cummins is wrong?

Seems extremely credible and looks to be backed by excellent data.

I'm saying that he *could* be wrong. It certainly looks convincing. But then so did Slimani on his debut.

 

If he's making this assertion, let him subject it to peer review and be examined professionally before publishing it as established fact.

 

10 minutes ago, simFox said:

What it's aye irrelevant when the Swedes had a coherent plan and stick to it and managed the virus with reasonable controls on place on the economy.

 

Lockdown did nothing, look at Peru and Brazil, Peru had a military lockdown and came out worse. Brazil's numbers look bad standalone, but against their population numbers it is pretty well managed with minimal restrictions.

 

Look at all the States US States and compare those that locked down and those that didn't. Florida is easy part the worst with declining infections and deaths, a few months time they will be down to base line with no lockdowns, curfews or rules of 6.

 

Australia is interesting, it's gone full totalitarian over a virus with some quite severe human right violations which the population are suffering. Yet still the virus springs up. Let's see what happens over there, but my prediction is that eradication is futile, because once they do open up, vaccine or not, it will hit them.

Fair thoughts. However:

 

...are Brazil's numbers really something to be aspiring to, per capita or no, when other countries have done rather better?

 

...and I thought it was all going to be over in the USA by the end of August?

[Costock_Fox]

I’m sure it’s already been covered but I can’t be arsed to read pages of bickering. Sounds like a 2 week national lockdown is on its way.

[Innovindil]

Bit of perspective on governments testing ability. Always useful. 

 

Prime Minister Boris Johnson told MPs on Wednesday: "We are now testing more per head of population than France, Germany and Spain and conducting more tests than any other European country."

He’s right - according to data collected by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), an EU agency.

For the week ending 30 August, the figures show:

• UK - 19 tests per 1,000
• France -13 tests per 1,000
• Germany - 13 tests per 1,000
• Spain - 12 tests per 1,000

A few countries in Europe rank higher than the UK on this measure though, including Denmark on 42 tests per 1,000.

When it comes to overall tests, as of 30 August, the UK had processed just over 15 million antigen tests (the tests which tell you whether you currently have coronavirus).

This total is higher than any other country in Europe, according to ECDC figures. Germany, for example, had processed 12.3 million tests by this date and France 7.4 million.

[StanSP]

 

 

[StanSP]