Coronavirus Thread

[WigstonWanderer]

3 hours ago, Legend_in_blue said:

Not sure if this was posted a week ago as I have kept well out of this thread for a while but watch this.  A brilliant analysis of the recent and current situation.  Well worth a watch.  We're currently witnessing "a casedemic" in the UK and all over Europe due to over-testing.  In conclusion, the suppression of virus over summer due to masks (discussed here as ineffective) and lockdown (also ineffective) could actually make seasonal virus numbers worse in winter as a result too.

 

 

 

 

Let’s hope this guy is correct and true second waves are unlikely.

 

One thing I still can’t understand is that if the PCR tests are simply identifying virus fragments from much earlier infections due to over sensitivity, surely we’d be seeing many more apparent cases of what look like second infections. We’d see people who actually had the virus and were tested first time round being tested subsequently and pronounced as having a second infection due to a false positive. In practice such cases seem to be very rare.

 

I’m still sceptical about claims that lockdowns don’t have any effect and cannot be credited with having suppressed the virus and reduced the death count. We’ve just had the case of Melbourne where the a lockdown correlates completely with bringing the infection rate down, and no one is claiming that there has been a sufficient proportion of the population infected to induce effective herd immunity, even if it cuts in around 20% as now suspected.

 

Very interesting take anyway, and if true suggests that the science of epidemiology has some way to go.

[leicsmac]

3 hours ago, Legend_in_blue said:

Seasonal differences.  Watch the video!

Interesting. But without peer-reviewed citable study, I'm not sure how conclusive/reliable it is.

 

Are there any such papers that back this up?

[CosbehFox]

10 hours ago, Legend_in_blue said:

 

There's also the potential for worse outcomes this winter due to mask use and lockdowns not allowing natural immunity spread during a low risk summer season.

 

Watch the video!

As much as salient point that may be, I’ll go back to the original goal of the restrictions and lockdown.....not to overwhelm the hospital system 

[simFox]

2 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

As much as salient point that may be, I’ll go back to the original goal of the restrictions, oppression, tyranny, economic destruction and lockdown.....not to overwhelm the hospital system 

That's the ticket Boris 👍

[CosbehFox]

11 minutes ago, simFox said:

That's the ticket Boris 👍

If you want to dismiss the personal experiences I know of two friends who worked through the worst period in a hospital and a couple of posters in this forum, fair play. 
 

600 health workers in their various guises lost their lives at the peak, it that was sustained over a long period, we’d have consequences for years which reach much further than the treatment of Covid. 
 

I dont agree with current restrictions and I think there needs to be balance where you have to accept good, health person catch it and fight it.  However those first few months were totally terrifying if you worked in healthcare. The lockdown slowed the tap of hospital admissions.

 

Also just to say everything single stat I see people using as a justification of ‘this isn’t that bad’, remember those figures are positioned in the context of restrictions and lockdowns. 

Edited 16 September 2020 by Cardiff_Fox

[simFox]

21 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

If you want to dismiss the personal experiences I know of two friends who worked through the worst period in a hospital and a couple of posters in this forum, fair play. 
 

600 health workers in their various guises lost their lives at the peak, it that was sustained over a long period, we’d have consequences for years which reach much further than the treatment of Covid. 
 

I dont agree with current restrictions and I think there needs to be balance where you have to accept good, health person catch it and fight it.  However those first few months were totally terrifying if you worked in healthcare. The lockdown slowed the tap of hospital admissions.

 

Also just to say everything single stat I see people using as a justification of ‘this isn’t that bad’, remember those figures are positioned in the context of restrictions and lockdowns. 

Everyone excepts the past, I even said so myself. But to keep using it as justification to continue with "restrictions and lockdown" is leading us towards some pretty serious economic consequences.

 

There comes a point where you have to realise that the cure is worse than the disease. And for the good of everyone, that decision needs to be made sharpish.

 

 

[MonmoreStef]

If deaths don’t rise sharply in the next couple of weeks then even the most lockdown loving people in our society must accept we need to open more things up and to reduce these measures and over reactions to every little spike in cases. 

[Voll Blau]

3 minutes ago, MonmoreStef said:

If deaths don’t rise sharply in the next couple of weeks then even the most lockdown loving people in our society must accept we need to open more things up and to reduce these measures and over reactions to every little spike in cases. 

 

The idea that anyone's loved the past few months or the idea of going through it again is absolutely ridiculous. Doesn't mean they can't be concerned about the best way forward to protect vulnerable loved ones though.

[CosbehFox]

55 minutes ago, simFox said:

Everyone excepts the past, I even said so myself. But to keep using it as justification to continue with "restrictions and lockdown" is leading us towards some pretty serious economic consequences.

 

There comes a point where you have to realise that the cure is worse than the disease. And for the good of everyone, that decision needs to be made sharpish.

 

 

My post wasn’t a justification for the restrictions as is. To give context, my job is/can be a cog in a pretty huge capitalist machine of pension funds, stocks and property. So I’m well aware I need the economy. August thankfully saw us return to some normality which was most welcome given I’ve already taken a paycut. 
 

The original video I replied mentions about the failure to use the summer as an opportunity to assist with immunity - a good point but such an action would have seen a continued hospitalisation rate we were struggling to cope with. Lockdown wasn’t in place to reduce deaths, it was to reduce the weight on the medical services. 
 

To aside here, the death of debate continues on here when opinions are viewed as for or against. Not a combination as mine, easy to lump an opinion in pro-lockdown or anti-restrictions but it’s more nuanced than that. 

Edited 16 September 2020 by Cardiff_Fox

[FoxesDeb]

Many people also seem to disregard the evidence which is showing it is not just the deaths we need to be concerned about, but the long term health implications Covid is causing in all age groups, however healthy they previously were, and whether they were actually ill with Covid or not. It's not OK to think 'well I'll be alright, I won't die', unless of course you're not in the slightest bit concerned about your, or your families, long term health.

 

I see and hear much talk about numbers referring to deaths, but very little concern for the long term issues that are becoming more apparent.

[z-layrex]

On 15/09/2020 at 07:26, st albans fox said:

I didn’t think they were carrying out anti body tests on the nhs as they have no bearing on what you do/don’t do.  Perhaps @z-layrex can comment on that ...

I can't stand talking or thinking about it anymore I'm afraid.

[Julian Joachim Jr Shabadoo]

44 minutes ago, FoxesDeb said:

Many people also seem to disregard the evidence which is showing it is not just the deaths we need to be concerned about, but the long term health implications Covid is causing in all age groups, however healthy they previously were, and whether they were actually ill with Covid or not. It's not OK to think 'well I'll be alright, I won't die', unless of course you're not in the slightest bit concerned about your, or your families, long term health.

 

I see and hear much talk about numbers referring to deaths, but very little concern for the long term issues that are becoming more apparent.

 

That's what concerns me most - although the cases where people aren't recovering in under-50's aren't common, I've heard enough cases about people who are fit and healthy catching it then basically not recovering and doctors not being able to tell when they will be at full health again. Can't imagine how shit it'd be to basically be out of breath from doing any form of activity for an unknown amount of months(/years)

[simFox]

Well we might see another lockdown yet if this is true.

 

A leading scientific advisor told ITV last night: “Lockdown is the only thing that we know works, to be frank.

 

 

A member of Sage added:  “My big worry now is that we might be too late again to avert a major second wave.

 

"If we wait for deaths to go up again before taking decisive action we will be in trouble again”.

 

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/12682335/tougher-lockdown-rules-two-weeks/amp/

 

We're screwed.

[joachim1965]

12 hours ago, simFox said:

The problem is (and this is the bit I can't fathom) the clever scientific advisors must know all this, yet still we bimble on with ever more tyranny, compliance and fear. 

 

The biggest difficulty people (and government) will have is admitting they were wrong, especially the ones still hiding behind the sofa. 

 

The problem is as we head into another season and deaths tick up a bit, it's more mass hysteria.

 

The only solution is how we get out of this mess without looking stupid. 

 

I was never in favour of lockdown, but I could understand it, so I'll hold my hands up myself, it had me fooled too. But come on folks, we don't need to carry on like this.

 

Covid Woke!

project fear. 

 

[yorkie1999]

23 minutes ago, simFox said:

Well we might see another lockdown yet if this is true.

 

A leading scientific advisor told ITV last night: “Lockdown is the only thing that we know works, to be frank.

 

 

A member of Sage added:  “My big worry now is that we might be too late again to avert a major second wave.

 

"If we wait for deaths to go up again before taking decisive action we will be in trouble again”.

 

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/12682335/tougher-lockdown-rules-two-weeks/amp/

 

We're screwed.

His big worry is that we might be too late. How about committing to a straight response as in we are too late or we are not too late. This is what's got me throughout all of this pandemic and made it extremely difficult to understand what is fact and what is a guess, the experts and scientists who get shedloads of government funding are there to give definite answers as to what will be or won't be, that's the whole point of their existence. We can all guess at what might and might not be, here's my guess, because we have all been keeping our distance and wearing masks,  we might not have built up enough immunity to other virus's and diseases that may be around during the winter months because we might not have been subjected to them. 

[Chrysalis]

2 hours ago, MonmoreStef said:

If deaths don’t rise sharply in the next couple of weeks then even the most lockdown loving people in our society must accept we need to open more things up and to reduce these measures and over reactions to every little spike in cases. 

does that include local lockdowns? because many of you on here didnt seem to care until the national guidelines were restricted a bit.

 

for me I just want consistency, if you going to tell people they cannot meetup in their own homes or gardens then its wrong to open up schools and hospitality, you restrict both or you allow both.

 

I personally think the driver of lockdown decision making should be hospital data only, by all means carry on testing the community, and perhaps still use it to send bubbles home from school, or individuals home from work, but it shouldnt be used to drive wider spread restrictions, for that its Pillar A tests and death counts, which is more in line with what you are proposing.

[RowlattsFox]

I'd imagine a lot people are now trying to get tests to proof they don't have it rather than because they are feeling particularly unwell. 

 

I hope there is some data showing how many people go on to register positive test results after being asked to isolate either through contact at work/school/wherever and those quarantining because of travel. Understandable but its the isolation rules which are causing the biggest pain in the arse for most. 

[StanSP]

When can we say 'I told you so' about Dido Harding given this whole testing catastrophe? She's the one in charge of Test and Trace, right? 

 

Asking for a friend... 

[CosbehFox]

5 minutes ago, RowlattsFox said:

I'd imagine a lot people are now trying to get tests to proof they don't have it rather than because they are feeling particularly unwell. 

 

I hope there is some data showing how many people go on to register positive test results after being asked to isolate either through contact at work/school/wherever and those quarantining because of travel. Understandable but its the isolation rules which are causing the biggest pain in the arse for most. 

Exactly. If you have a school asking a year to isolate thats 150 pupils. 150 households. With parents at least who will want to keep on working, that’s 450 tests. That’s before we get to fall out’s of the parents mixing at workplaces 

[leicsmac]

54 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

His big worry is that we might be too late. How about committing to a straight response as in we are too late or we are not too late. This is what's got me throughout all of this pandemic and made it extremely difficult to understand what is fact and what is a guess, the experts and scientists who get shedloads of government funding are there to give definite answers as to what will be or won't be, that's the whole point of their existence. We can all guess at what might and might not be, here's my guess, because we have all been keeping our distance and wearing masks,  we might not have built up enough immunity to other virus's and diseases that may be around during the winter months because we might not have been subjected to them. 

The problem with this is that it puts those scientific experts in a double bind.

 

If they do as they are doing and give uncertain but educated guidance on an uncertain matter, people then jump on them for not being certain about a matter that, while with a certain amount of facts, has a much bigger amount of variables caused by human activity. This isn't physics where things are much more certain and easy to predict, after all.

 

If, however, they do make claims of certainty to "justify their existence" as put here and then turn out to be wrong, as is very likely, then the same people will certainly jump on them for being wrong.

 

I can understand people wanting reassurance through certain guidance, but it would not only be irresponsible for scientists to give it, it would show a remarkable lack of foresight concerning their own future.

 

And such experts not being certain on this thing doesn't mean that they aren't better informed and with more solid judgement about it than the layman.

[Chrysalis]

Looks like oadby and wigston has shot up again.  Also new national average is a lot higher than a month ago..

 

Quote

At 115 cases per 100,000 people, only Bolton has a higher rate and Oadby and Wigston is the only area in the top ten where no extra restrictions currently apply.

The national seven-day rate is 32.8 cases per 100,000 people.

 

Also the case localisation pattern has changed for the city, before it was heavily concentrated in belgrave and evington areas, now its more spread out, west end of leicester between a47 and fullhurst avenue (student area) has the largest growth during September in the city.

 

Unfortunately for the city days before review the case load doubled from a lowish 23 per 100k to 42 per 100k.  The eastern parts had settled down then a massive spread amongst people in west end seems to be the cause.  I think at 23 we may have changed to national guidance, but I would be surprised now if that happens.

[Innovindil]

More than 100 people turned up at an A&E asking for Covid-19 tests, sparking a plea from a hospital trust for anyone who is not seriously ill to stay away.

 

 

Who the **** thinks ah ill just pop down A&E to see if they've got a test for me. 

 

Donkeys. 

[Webbo]

3 hours ago, RowlattsFox said:

I'd imagine a lot people are now trying to get tests to proof they don't have it rather than because they are feeling particularly unwell. 

 

I hope there is some data showing how many people go on to register positive test results after being asked to isolate either through contact at work/school/wherever and those quarantining because of travel. Understandable but its the isolation rules which are causing the biggest pain in the arse for most. 

When I was looking at holidays for next week we looked at Cyprus. apparently you need to have taken a test 3 days before you arrived.Obviously we didn't bother.

[simFox]

6 minutes ago, Innovindil said:

More than 100 people turned up at an A&E asking for Covid-19 tests, sparking a plea from a hospital trust for anyone who is not seriously ill to stay away.

 

 

Who the **** thinks ah ill just pop down A&E to see if they've got a test for me. 

 

Donkeys. 

People who have been told they need to self isolate for whatever reason unless they can prove they don't have the virus. People who want to travel. People who need to put their kids back into class after being told they've come into contact with a suspected case. Plus many other reasons.

 

I doubt anyone is going down just to check if they have it, people are not being allowed to work or being risked to be sent to the gulags, unless they can produce a negative result!

Edited 16 September 2020 by simFox

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

21 minutes ago, Webbo said:

When I was looking at holidays for next week we looked at Cyprus. apparently you need to have taken a test 3 days before you arrived.Obviously we didn't bother.

Where did you decide to go in the end? Not many options left unless you can quarantine (I can and will)