Coronavirus Thread

[stix]

7 minutes ago, FoxesDeb said:

We live in South Wigston, and my daughter has literally just come home from Blaby Road park. She's spent a couple of hours down there with the same friends she spends all day in the classroom with. How is it ok for her to be indoors with them all day, but not ok for her to be outside with them after school?

I just don’t see what this will gain. I feel it’s an excuse/opportunity to try and get to grips with the possible(I have no idea if it’s the case) issue with young teens congregating on parks of an evening, drinking/smoking/shouting etc. Seems a pointless exercise to me.

[FoxesDeb]

2 minutes ago, stix said:

I just don’t see what this will gain. I feel it’s an excuse/opportunity to try and get to grips with the possible(I have no idea if it’s the case) issue with young teens congregating on parks of an evening, drinking/smoking/shouting etc. Seems a pointless exercise to me.

It's possible I guess, but I've been down there and the wildest thing E and her mates are getting up to is keepy uppies  It's not like it was in my day  Unless the older ones start their shenanigans later....

[Strokes]

My lad is off for 14 days, someone in his class has tested positive.

My daughter also today has had to have a test, so will get the results tomorrow.

[Leicester_Loyal]

Just now, Strokes said:

My lad is off for 14 days, someone in his class has tested positive.

My daughter also today has had to have a test, so will get the results tomorrow.

This must be a nightmare for parents. What happens with childcare, have you or your partner now got to stay off work as well?

[Legend_in_blue]

Another interesting read:

 

https://www.cebm.net/2020/09/pitfalls-of-repeat-testing-illustrated-with-the-house-of-commons/

[Strokes]

Just now, Leicester_Loyal said:

This must be a nightmare for parents. What happens with childcare, have you or your partner now got to stay off work as well?

I’m working nights this week so will just manage it, haven’t really looked beyond that yet.

Yeah it’s an absolute travesty, my wife is a nurse, so I guess I should take it off but then I’m self employed and don’t get paid so.....🤷‍♀️

[Leicester_Loyal]

https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/local-lockdown-north-east-rules-18945698

 

New restrictions coming into effect on Friday for the North East. More madness.

[stix]

6 minutes ago, simFox said:

Ah, ok, I'm not in the UK so not versed in where people need go for a test, but I should imagine they've taken a throw off the dice in order to get some kind of result, albeit a misinformed one. Either way, people are needing tests due to policy which is sucking up capacity and people are getting desperate and frustrated.

I absolutely agree with the desperate & frustrated part mate. I can relate to both of those emotions at some point since March. 
 

It’s clear that tests are at a premium at the minute though. Divs shouldn’t be clogging up A&E for what is ultimately a pointless exercise.

[AllGoneTitsSchlupp]

9 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/local-lockdown-north-east-rules-18945698

 

New restrictions coming into effect on Friday for the North East. More madness.

the most baffling thing about all of this is that the news of a local lockdown gets 'rumoured' a day or two before it comes into force. its the same with the travel corridor changes, always rumoured and then one or two days later it gets announced

 

why is it so difficult for the government to just announce it properly rather than leak rumours (rhetorical question)

[Legend_in_blue]

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/when-is-covid-covid/

 

Quote

UK 

The UK government guidance on diagnosis is based on clinical symptoms. Testing (not specified) is recommended for cases who are well enough to remain in the community. No guidance is given as to how to interpret such a test or any actions that should be taken consequent to the test results. Thus, new cases in the UK could reasonably be thought to mean cases diagnosed by clinical symptoms. 

Public Health England describes the four pillars of testing to include swab testing and additionally serology testing for certain groups. The methodology for counting cases states the following:

“If a person has both a negative and a positive test, then only their positive test will be counted. If a person is tested as positive under both pillar 1 and pillar 2, then only the first positive case is counted.”

An asymptomatic person who tested positive could have two confirmatory negative tests, but would still count as a confirmed case. In Wales, data is deduplicated on 42-day episodes; if someone is tested twice, 43 days apart, they will be included in the case count measure twice.

The UK government updates its guidance and recently posted on assurances of positive results during periods of low prevalence. 

The latest guidance states that ‘positive test results at the limit of detection that occur early in the cycle of infection are important as these represent individuals who may go on to transmit infection.’ The guidance asks laboratories to ‘determine the threshold for a positive result at the limit of detection based on the in-use assay,’ without stating what the threshold should be. If necessary, the laboratory should request a repeat sample; again this advice is given without a threshold to guide when to do the repeat test.

What is the case definition being used for clusters of UK cases being reported currently?

We deduce that a reported “case” is most probably simply the result of a positive PCR test. The new guidance is meaningless unless it provides a clear threshold for the limits of detection. For many whose test turns up positive, there may be nothing recorded about any clinical symptoms. 

That part in bold.  Two Qs:  Are laboratories operating to the same threshold levels as each other (consistency)?  Laboratories cannot surely request repeat samples when the system is overrun!  Just what are these tests detecting when threshold standards are not clearly identified in guidance?

[stix]

1 hour ago, FoxesDeb said:

It's possible I guess, but I've been down there and the wildest thing E and her mates are getting up to is keepy uppies  It's not like it was in my day  Unless the older ones start their shenanigans later....

I honestly don’t know Debs. Seems like a fruitless exercise to me in general for sure. But....I have no idea what goes on after dark down there 😂. 
 

It’s MASSIVELY pointless deterring young teens from congregating on parks of an evening if they’re told to congregate all day every week for the sake of their education. 

[reynard]

A cheery virus story for once

https://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2020/09/14/greece-oversized-masks-schools-humor/

[Leicester_Loyal]

12 minutes ago, stix said:

I honestly don’t know Debs. Seems like a fruitless exercise to me in general for sure. But....I have no idea what goes on after dark down there 😂. 
 

It’s MASSIVELY pointless deterring young teens from congregating on parks of an evening if they’re told to congregate all day every week for the sake of their education. 

They'll just end up going round someones house instead. Exactly the same as this curfew that's coming into force soon.

 

I don't know if it's a Government or a council decision, they're all useless, they haven't got a clue about the real world nor the average man/woman.

[Leicester_Loyal]

 

[Corky]

Noticeable on the news and radio I've heard the amount of people wanting tests when their child/ grandchild has symptoms.

 

Virtually all were looking for a youngster to get tested.

[CosbehFox]

2 hours ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

We have lost the plot, I can't believe it. This will have absolutely minimal affect on the R rate and the spread of Corona.

 

 

Not from what I’ve actually seen on a park in Oadby the last few weekends. 
 

EDIT: That said kids are mixing at schools anyway 

Edited 16 September 2020 by Cardiff_Fox

[st albans fox]

The kids are mixing at schools - yes, that’s the cost of them being educated 

 

the kids are mixing in the parks - well that’s not essential so it’s a risk of general transmission which isn’t related to their education that can be stopped. 

 

the more they mix, the more chance that the virus spreads ....I get that being outside lessens the risk but haven’t people seen how the death rates are now creeping up on the continent ? Spain was 239 today !!!!  pretending that it’s isn’t coming back is just silly - the govt have lost the plot  by not controlling testing .... so it’s left to the general public to do their best to keep things going without taking too many risks 

[UpTheLeagueFox]

Eight months on from it really kicking off, I think we can safely say that governments, scientists and the general public - right across the world - have no clear idea what's going on or how to deal with it.

[Bellend Sebastian]

Antibody test came back negative, which was not a massive surprise

[Nod.E]

After some preposterous modelling of likely deaths from Covid-19 by Professor Neil Ferguson and his Imperial College crew, British politicians panicked. The Swedes, led by their chief epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, didn’t. Britain and Sweden had wanted to control rather than try to eliminate the virus, letting it spread slowly through the population until a measure of general immunity was reached. We lost our nerve and Sweden was left almost alone in the world (and widely condemned: Imperial’s model predicted 85,000 deaths there; the total so far is 5,851). They proceeded with a mostly voluntary, common-sense code — schools, factories, businesses and restaurants stayed open — while we took a wrecking ball to our economy. Spain, which reacted with the fiercest lockdown, now tops the league of “second-wave” infection. Sweden is at the bottom.” – The Times

[leicsmac]

56 minutes ago, Nod.E said:

After some preposterous modelling of likely deaths from Covid-19 by Professor Neil Ferguson and his Imperial College crew, British politicians panicked. The Swedes, led by their chief epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, didn’t. Britain and Sweden had wanted to control rather than try to eliminate the virus, letting it spread slowly through the population until a measure of general immunity was reached. We lost our nerve and Sweden was left almost alone in the world (and widely condemned: Imperial’s model predicted 85,000 deaths there; the total so far is 5,851). They proceeded with a mostly voluntary, common-sense code — schools, factories, businesses and restaurants stayed open — while we took a wrecking ball to our economy. Spain, which reacted with the fiercest lockdown, now tops the league of “second-wave” infection. Sweden is at the bottom.” – The Times

...is there anything to suggest that what the Swedes have done (and good for them) is anything other than a statistical anomaly rather than an example to follow when so many counterexamples exist - like Brazil and areas of the US being equally lax and things running rampant, or Korea imposing pretty tough restrictions and getting better case and death numbers than them without overly affecting the economy?

[WigstonWanderer]

1 hour ago, Nod.E said:

After some preposterous modelling of likely deaths from Covid-19 by Professor Neil Ferguson and his Imperial College crew, British politicians panicked. The Swedes, led by their chief epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, didn’t. Britain and Sweden had wanted to control rather than try to eliminate the virus, letting it spread slowly through the population until a measure of general immunity was reached. We lost our nerve and Sweden was left almost alone in the world (and widely condemned: Imperial’s model predicted 85,000 deaths there; the total so far is 5,851). They proceeded with a mostly voluntary, common-sense code — schools, factories, businesses and restaurants stayed open — while we took a wrecking ball to our economy. Spain, which reacted with the fiercest lockdown, now tops the league of “second-wave” infection. Sweden is at the bottom.” – The Times

TBF, they’ve probably got a mostly common sense population compared with most places

[Strokes]

3 hours ago, st albans fox said:

The kids are mixing at schools - yes, that’s the cost of them being educated 

 

the kids are mixing in the parks - well that’s not essential so it’s a risk of general transmission which isn’t related to their education that can be stopped. 

 

the more they mix, the more chance that the virus spreads ....I get that being outside lessens the risk but haven’t people seen how the death rates are now creeping up on the continent ? Spain was 239 today !!!!  pretending that it’s isn’t coming back is just silly - the govt have lost the plot  by not controlling testing .... so it’s left to the general public to do their best to keep things going without taking too many risks 

Do you think the kids just disperse and go home after realising the park is closed?

[Dan LCFC]

On 15/09/2020 at 20:44, Legend_in_blue said:

Not sure if this was posted a week ago as I have kept well out of this thread for a while but watch this.  A brilliant analysis of the recent and current situation.  Well worth a watch.  We're currently witnessing "a casedemic" in the UK and all over Europe due to over-testing.  In conclusion, the suppression of virus over summer due to masks (discussed here as ineffective) and lockdown (also ineffective) could actually make seasonal virus numbers worse in winter as a result too.

 

 

 

 

More people should see this. It's a total scandal.

[Chrysalis]

8 hours ago, FoxesDeb said:

But why would people go to A&E? The accident and emergency department of a hospital is not a test centre is it?

This is all happening because Pillar B tests have been over hyped by the state media (bbc) and the government.

 

There should have been no local lockdowns unless actual hospital admissions went up, and any social restrictions should be tied to economic restrictions.

 

e.g. my sister was easing of her fear of going out at end of june, but as soon as the city got put back into lockdown because of a looming crisis (even tho hospitals were quiet) she is scared again, and now of course this has spiralled to many people to the point they are even going to a&e out of desperation to get tested.

 

I think reporting pillar B cases as often as is been done by the news media is counter productive and I actually think they shouldnt be used for widespread lockdown decision making.

 

Telling people to ring 111 isnt going to help either, people would want to speak to a HCP not a call centre operative who is just triaging calls.

 

Its all a big mess, by now there should be home test kits in every household, no silly rule saying you cant visit a family member, no local lockdowns (no hospitals under stress), and probably only monthly public statistics.  

 

Government policy hasnt helped either, I really do not understand what made them thought starting uni and schools fully again would have no visible consequence, as well as opening up the hospitality sector so quickly.  The fact they opened up schools and then are unable to test teachers off with symptoms smacks of no planning.