Coronavirus Thread

[SpacedX]

So in Oadby and Wigston don't have more than six people in your household or garden and they must be within your established household bubbles, instead, head down to 'spoons for a gallon of John Smiths and burger deal and sit cheek by jowl with a hundred other ****wits.

Edited 18 September 2020 by Line-X

[SpacedX]

...Then next morning go to work elsewhere in your recently declared 'covid safe workspace'. 

[Alf Bentley]

29 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

I can see the reasons behind what you say, but I think you're drawing the wrong conclusions.  As you say, you've been locked down for months.  And as is now apparent, it has done little good and you could remain locked down for years yet.  There is no point, from your point of view, in trying to keep things as they are now.  The current approach is to enforce lockdown until a vaccinie is ready, which may be several years off if ever.  We need to do something different.

 

Sweden are apparently doing very well, presumably because they didn't do lockdown, they didn't close the pubs and schools, and probably because the young and fit got the virus and - whisper it - may have achieved herd immunity.  Perhaps it's time to try that.

 

Done little good? Daily UK Covid deaths were in the high hundreds, sometimes over 1000 in spring. Lockdown brought them down to single figures - still only low double figures.... for now.

That has certainly been at considerable cost - but countless thousands of lives are worth a considerable cost.

 

The Govt has made multiple cock-ups, but the current approach is not simply to enforce a lockdown until a vaccine is ready. There is an effort to balance control of Covid with limitations on economic/personal/social damage. That's why lockdown restrictions were eased considerably, lots of things were opened up again (schools, shops, pubs) & the switch was made to local restrictions, curfews etc. As you rightly say, we can't be sure there'll even be a workable vaccine. In the meantime, it's a balancing act, while hoping for a vaccine or alleviation treatments, it's a case of trying to learn more about the health impacts of the virus - and learning more about what does and doesn't work in restricting Covid damage while minimising the inevitable disruption.

 

After infection rates fell and the full lockdown was eased in the summer, I was able to at least do some of the stuff that I could do pre-Covid. Not the same as pre-Covid but better than lockdown. Another full lockdown is much more likely if people allow Covid to spread widely - and I'd very much like to avoid that, hence my support for retaining some lesser restrictions and strengthening them (short of a full lockdown) as required by circumstances & local infection rates.

 

If you got your way and Covid was allowed to spread widely, whether or not the Govt imposed a lockdown I'd end up having to choose between effective house arrest or taking a significant risk with my life & long-term health.

 

As for Sweden doing very well......we'll have to wait until it's all over to make a final judgment.

But here are the death rates per million for the Nordic countries so far:

- Denmark: 110

- Finland: 61

- Norway: 49

- Sweden: 580

I bet the friends/family of those 580 per million are less impressed with the Swedish record than you are.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Sampson]

19 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1306916494773755910?s=2

 

What is the maths behind this?

 

I'm genuinely curious? I've not seen this before - that only 9% of people testing positive for covid actually have covid - how does the mathe work to work that out?

[CosbehFox]

22 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1306916494773755910?s=2

 

Quite sadly means **** all when hospitalisation rate in England has near doubled since the start of September - 866 today 

Edited 18 September 2020 by Cardiff_Fox

[CosbehFox]

3 hours ago, Finnaldo said:

Honestly, I’m not sure another national lockdown would do much for two weeks, and it’s just giving the economy another kicking. Especially when you’re allowing schools & workplaces to remain open, 

It’s all on a lag. The cases are two weeks old from when they’ve been caught. The hospitalisation are another week after. Deaths another week or two after. The data is always old 

[yorkie1999]

With regards to these latest local lockdowns, i would have thought the government would have reversed what they had allowed to open until the cases of covid started to decline again. It seems no coincidence that once the schools opened, cases started to rise again, surely the thing to have done would be to close the schools and monitor the situation over a few weeks to see if that is causing the problem.  

[CosbehFox]

2 hours ago, Line-X said:

Well infections in Europe have now exceeded the March peak, so you tell me. The government appears to be committed to biting the bullet and resisting lockdown through the inevitable prospect of a second wave albeit with strict guidelines in place and the continual 'whack a mole' strategy of provincial lockdown. Given the fact that large sections the ****wit British public are either unable to comprehend these guidelines/regulations or flagrantly flout them, another national lockdown may be unavoidable. 

To be fair though Spain and France have hardly held themselves in equal glory. Germany and Italy have

[SpacedX]

1 minute ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

To be fair though Spain and France have hardly held themselves in equal glory. Germany and Italy have

Agree, but I am purely talking from a national perspective - but then a pandemic knows no boundaries. 

[reynard]

7 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

Quite sadly means **** all when hospitalisation rate in England has near doubled since the start of September - 866 today 

The warnings from Spain and France are clearly there to see. Whether our incompetent goverment will learn from them this time round remains to be seen.

In the greater Madrid area yesterday 400 out of the 500 intensive care beds were occupied by Covid patients.  Similar picture coming out of Marseille in France.

Meanwhile in the Czech Republic, where there infections are going up considerably, 20% of all infections are among school children.

There will be some kind of national lockdown/restrictions within the next few weeks. Holiday is being brought forward for some civil servants in anticipation. The idea was, I suspect, to hold off until the October half term but that seems unlikely now.

Looks likely pubs and restaurants may have to close or face restrictions, people dissuaded from using public transport and severe restrictions on social gatherings. The number of contacts people have will need to be reduced as this is the only way to bring infection numbers under control or the likelihood is the health service risks being overhwelmed.

 

[reynard]

12 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

With regards to these latest local lockdowns, i would have thought the government would have reversed what they had allowed to open until the cases of covid started to decline again. It seems no coincidence that once the schools opened, cases started to rise again, surely the thing to have done would be to close the schools and monitor the situation over a few weeks to see if that is causing the problem.  

They can't close schools because they have said openly they will be the last thing to be closed in any local lockdown, presumably even after shops and businesses. They have staked a lot politically on keeping them open.

[martyn]

So Boris has now proclaimed a 2nd wave as "inevitable", yet Dido Harding calls demand for testing as "unforseen".

[BKLFox]

3 minutes ago, reynard said:

The warnings from Spain and France are clearly there to see. Whether our incompetent goverment will learn from them this time round remains to be seen.

In the greater Madrid area yesterday 400 out of the 500 intensive care beds were occupied by Covid patients.  Similar picture coming out of Marseille in France.

Meanwhile in the Czech Republic, where there infections are going up considerably, 20% of all infections are among school children.

There will be some kind of national lockdown/restrictions within the next few weeks. Holiday is being brought forward for some civil servants in anticipation. The idea was, I suspect, to hold off until the October half term but that seems unlikely now.

Looks likely pubs and restaurants may have to close or face restrictions, people dissuaded from using public transport and severe restrictions on social gatherings. The number of contacts people have will need to be reduced as this is the only way to bring infection numbers under control or the likelihood is the health service risks being overhwelmed.

 

You seem to be swimming against the tide on here fella

[yorkie1999]

Just now, reynard said:

They can't close schools because they have said openly they will be the last thing to be closed in any local lockdown, presumably even after shops and businesses. They have staked a lot politically on keeping them open.

Well that's just stupid. If the problem stems from school children who are probably asymptomatic and therefore making it difficult to spot the signs of the virus, taking the virus home to their parents and relatives and nothing can be done to prevent that happening, we're basically fvcked.

[Livid]

I’m totally at a loss to explain the figure of 3 cases per 100000 in North West Leicestershire, are people actually bothering to get tested around here? 
 

Every surrounding area is way higher. 

[yorkie1999]

1 minute ago, Livid said:

I’m totally at a loss to explain the figure of 3 cases per 100000 in North West Leicestershire, are people actually bothering to get tested around here? 
 

Every surrounding area is way higher. 

Out of interest, what is the population of north west leicestershire?

[Kopfkino]

37 minutes ago, Sampson said:

What is the maths behind this?

 

I'm genuinely curious? I've not seen this before - that only 9% of people testing positive for covid actually have covid - how does the mathe work to work that out?

 

It's simple. The ONS says that, in a random sample of people, 1 in 900 will actually have Covid, a positive rate of 0.11111%, but let's say 1 in 1000 so 0.1% for ease. If your FPR is 0.8% then for every 1000 people tested, you get 8 false positives. So only 1 of 9 positives is genuine. For her 91% the FPR would have to be 1% based on population prevalence being 0.1%.

 

However, the stupid thing about the point is that people being tested aren't random and have symptoms, so are far more likely to actually have Covid than a randomly selected group of people. And of course, completely ignores the prospect of false negatives.

Edited 18 September 2020 by Kopfkino

[Nalis]

13 minutes ago, reynard said:

The warnings from Spain and France are clearly there to see. Whether our incompetent goverment will learn from them this time round remains to be seen.

In the greater Madrid area yesterday 400 out of the 500 intensive care beds were occupied by Covid patients.  Similar picture coming out of Marseille in France.

Meanwhile in the Czech Republic, where there infections are going up considerably, 20% of all infections are among school children.

There will be some kind of national lockdown/restrictions within the next few weeks. Holiday is being brought forward for some civil servants in anticipation. The idea was, I suspect, to hold off until the October half term but that seems unlikely now.

Looks likely pubs and restaurants may have to close or face restrictions, people dissuaded from using public transport and severe restrictions on social gatherings. The number of contacts people have will need to be reduced as this is the only way to bring infection numbers under control or the likelihood is the health service risks being overhwelmed.

 

All pointless if schools remain open (which they should).

[RowlattsFox]

Pubs have been open for a while, a steady but not dramatic increase. Few weeks of education being back and we see this. I'm probably underestimating the school environment but it's not as though kids have been locked away for months, holiday parks have been full of em all summer, parks and beaches full of kids and one week back in school and they're spreading diseases. Flu is always a problem in schools initially though I suppose so it's natural that this will be intensified this year. 

[Legend_in_blue]

Another video following up on his first and it's just as great as the other one!

 

 

Someone send this to Boris and his chums.

 

[yorkie1999]

17 minutes ago, RowlattsFox said:

Pubs have been open for a while, a steady but not dramatic increase. Few weeks of education being back and we see this. I'm probably underestimating the school environment but it's not as though kids have been locked away for months, holiday parks have been full of em all summer, parks and beaches full of kids and one week back in school and they're spreading diseases. Flu is always a problem in schools initially though I suppose so it's natural that this will be intensified this year. 

I think being indoors is a major factor with the spread of the virus. Schools, care homes, hospitals etc all appear to be where the problem lies. All those protests we had earlier in the year don’t seem to have had any effect as the numbers were going down. Outdoor schooling at braggie park is the answer.

[fuchsntf]

6 hours ago, filbertway said:

I can't believe this has been knocking around for 8/9 months now and we're still being led by people who have no long term plans and are making new rules up on a weekly, sometimes daily basis. Such weak weak leadership.

 

God I hope this vaccines passes trials soon and we can start injecting everyone.

 

This isn't going away, I don't know why some guidelines aren't based on age rather than throwing everyone into the same bracket.

 

If you're going out and about, don't go and visit elderly relatives in their homes. It's not ideal, but neither is deciding what everyone can or can't do on an ad-hoc basis. 

 

Another quandary & controversal point, what makes you believe,think or be satisfied,

with peoples point of View in blindingly trusting any vaccine,supported by any present Government... 

 

I said to my family, early as May ,with no other disastrous mittigating differences (I belonging to the so called vulnerable) I for One wouldnt Dive in head first,

I'd rather wait 4-8 months after First Phase of injections have taken place,  & then still ponder  the thought....!!

 

[Leicester_Loyal]

1 hour ago, Sampson said:

What is the maths behind this?

 

I'm genuinely curious? I've not seen this before - that only 9% of people testing positive for covid actually have covid - how does the mathe work to work that out?

**** knows, I was hoping someone in here might know. Seems madness

 

EDIT: Just seen the above post, cheers.

Edited 18 September 2020 by Leicester_Loyal

[Livid]

40 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

Out of interest, what is the population of north west leicestershire?

It’s around 100,000. 

[Col city fan]

2 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Whatever you think of our govt (I'm not a fan), the current measures - local/regional restrictions & curfews - are designed to avoid any need for a full national lockdown, which would be disastrous.

Covid hospitalisations are now rising significantly again, so it is no longer just a case of young, healthy people getting infected with no problems. The risk of deaths & long-Covid problems mushrooming, necessitating stricter action is clear.

 

Your first comment is a good point - and a good argument for targeted govt support for the hospitality, event and music industries, not for people to pretend that Covid risk doesn't exist.

Otherwise, if Covid infections, hospitalisations (& inevitably deaths) continue to increase, many such businesses will become non-viable, anyway. Many of their customers are middle-aged/old or have vulnerabilities - or are young and won't want to take the risk if Covid is running rampant again.

 

I find your second comment offensive. As a bloke in his 50s with a teenager & a health vulnerability, how long should I exercise the "free will to isolate and shield"? My impression is that you'd be happy for me to stay under house arrest indefinitely, so long as you were able to get out of your flat, earn money and see your friends. Try reversing the situation. Try imagining that this virus affected young people disproportionately (as was the case with Spanish Flu). Then imagine that old gits like me told you that you had the free will to isolate and shield (for however long it takes, by implication) while I got on with earning money and seeing my friends....after all nobody would be forcing you out into a mosh pit & we could FaceTime you to cheer you up!

 

Young people may go out more than the middle-aged or elderly, but a lot in their 50s & 60s still work and people of all ages want to avoid social isolation.....which becomes a nightmare if you're forced to exercise your "free will" to isolate because others have allowed Covid to run rampant, putting your life at risk. I'm fortunate in that I work from home anyway, but was still starting to crack up after 5 months without seeing friends or getting out to social/cultural/sports events. People don't cease to have human needs because they're no longer young. Even very elderly people in care homes have suffered psychologically & health-wise, or even died, due to having to isolate during the first wave.

 

We need to fight this thing together (including support for those in sectors particularly impacted) so as to achieve the best outcomes for all, not end up with different generations looking out for their own interests.

In saying that, I'm well aware that other policies - of a Govt I've never voted for - have favoured wealthy older generations (e.g. lack of affordable housing & insecure employment v. good pensions for the elderly). It needs to work both ways as there's enough strife without different generations ending up fighting one another for their rival self-interests.

 

Postscript: What a twat Johnson is, encouraging people to go back to the workplace if possible! He should be doing the opposite - encouraging people to work from home, if possible, to help minimise the spread of Covid, while providing support or helping generate new employment opportunities for those working in sectors adversely affected by that (like hospitality & transport).

Completely agree about the last paragraph

When loads of us were learning how to use MS Teams and the such like and only going into base when absolutely essential, Twatty Boris tells us all to stop doing this and all pile back, en masse, into the workplace.

Out of necessity, some of the conversation this year about work has been along the lines of how to work remotely (when possible). What needs to be done, what are the limitations to VPN etc
A load of us have been discussing this new way of working, it’s strengths, it’s limitations and the such like. Workplaces, NHS settings, Educational establishments have all put the wheels into motion to manage this situation as safely as possible

And then Johnson tells us all that working from home, working remotely is no good for us all and we must all go back to the office, to the classroom, to whatever, ASAP

I couldn’t quite believe what I was hearing. 
This government have fooked a lot of stuff up this year but this one took the biscuit.