Our system detected that your browser is blocking advertisements on our site. Please help support FoxesTalk by disabling any kind of ad blocker while browsing this site. Thank you.
Jump to content
 Share
lnkstern

The Occasional 2023-24 Math Thread

By lnkstern, in Leicester City Forum

Recommended Posts

Lillehamring

Lillehamring

Posted
Posted
On 14/12/2023 at 10:40, st albans fox said:

Look at it this way

leeds would do v well to take 2 points per game for the rest of the season 

 

that gets them to 91 

 

So we need 40 points from 25 games 

 

thats roughy one win in two 

 

do you think we’ll manage that ??

Their last 10 games they're on 2.3 - IF they can sustain that rate, they'll get 98 points

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Lillehamring

Lillehamring

Posted
Posted
On 14/12/2023 at 14:48, Lionator said:

Average play off spot for the past 5 season is 73 points. 

 

So if we win 7 of our last 25 games, that'll probably guarantee 6th place. To put it another way, if we draw every single game until the end of the season, or win 1 and lose 2 of every 3 games, we would reach the play offs.

You can føkk off with that kind of talk - no one here wants to be thinking about sneaking into the play offs! :o :scarf:

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Chrysalis

Chrysalis

Posted
Posted (edited)

A maths update from me, based on table at 3pm today.

 

Predicted top 4 table based on last 6 form.

 

Leicester 106

Ipswich 104

Leeds 95

Saints 89

 

Only a week ago it looked worse than this but both Saints and Leeds had a bad result in their last game.  We also pushed off one of our defeats from last 6.

Edited by Chrysalis
Link to comment
Share on other sites
KFS

KFS

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Chrysalis said:

A maths update from me, based on table at 3pm today.

 

Predicted top 4 table based on last 6 form.

 

Leicester 106

Ipswich 104

Leeds 95

Saints 89

 

Only a week ago it looked worse than this but both Saints and Leeds had a bad result in their last game.  We also pushed off one of our defeats from last 6.

Promotion confirmed end of March imo 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Chelmofox

Chelmofox

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Chrysalis said:

A maths update from me, based on table at 3pm today.

 

Predicted top 4 table based on last 6 form.

 

Leicester 106

Ipswich 104

Leeds 95

Saints 89

 

Only a week ago it looked worse than this but both Saints and Leeds had a bad result in their last game.  We also pushed off one of our defeats from last 6.

But i though that Leeds were supposed to be on top? :ph34r:

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Aus Fox

Aus Fox

Posted
Posted

If we are looking at this from a mathematical point of view. Total maximum points of us and our rivals:

 

Leicester 127

Ipswich 124

Leeds 114

Southampton 114

WBA 110

Hull 108

Sunderland 105 

PNE 104

Watford 103

Norwich 103

Blackburn 103

Cardiff 102

 Middlesbrough 102

Bristol City 101

 

The rest cannot make it to 100 points. We need an average of 1.92 ppg to get to that 100 point mark.

If we do that, Leeds and Southampton can only drop 13 points to be able to finish above us.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
fuchsntf

fuchsntf

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Aus Fox said:

If we are looking at this from a mathematical point of view. Total maximum points of us and our rivals:

 

Leicester 127

Ipswich 124

Leeds 114

Southampton 114

WBA 110

Hull 108

Sunderland 105 

PNE 104

Watford 103

Norwich 103

Blackburn 103

Cardiff 102

 Middlesbrough 102

Bristol City 101

 

The rest cannot make it to 100 points. We need an average of 1.92 ppg to get to that 100 point mark.

If we do that, Leeds and Southampton can only drop 13 points to be able to finish above us.

 

Now our holy squad hav taken on crusade and proved themselves

after 20 game they are worthy of the quests..Using all others mavelous

analyse & STATS in this last week,..

 

I am going to let you all do the potential analytical updates and be very clevers statitions’I am going to be

down right lazy..and predict from now, The Brummie-game, even with jiccups,a few tyre treads inside

our St Margrets under garments… we are,will remain more than a few jumps ahead of the opposition,

break pts & game records… Also remain easy-over,when holding the upperhand,Nobody including all

relevant parties have the quality and OWN challenge consistency,to keep up THEIR Challenge.

No entitlement,we will still have to earnt it!! We still need to turn up with the right mentality & disciplinn.

 

We are going up quicker than Hankocks lifts into Chicagós Sky-line

Our squad is simply that good & can take some hits.

We will with a mix of this years experience gathering squad and a future group of investments,

will be strong enough to compete in the future PL seasons

 

For the first time in these grow8ng old codgers years,I can’t see this challenge

TOP 2 being nobbled. We do have all the cards,and stars set out in the right constellation..

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Foxes96

Foxes96

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Grebfromgrebland said:

There's still plenty of time for us to do a 'Leicester' and drop to third place on the last day of the season and then fail in the playoffs.

 

The only maths important here is the number of points required to guarantee promotion.

 

What's the minimum number for that?

 

16 hours ago, Aus Fox said:

If we are looking at this from a mathematical point of view. Total maximum points of us and our rivals:

 

Leicester 127

Ipswich 124

Leeds 114

Southampton 114

WBA 110

Hull 108

Sunderland 105 

PNE 104

Watford 103

Norwich 103

Blackburn 103

Cardiff 102

 Middlesbrough 102

Bristol City 101

 

The rest cannot make it to 100 points. We need an average of 1.92 ppg to get to that 100 point mark.

If we do that, Leeds and Southampton can only drop 13 points to be able to finish above us.

 

Based on this 115 pts guarantees automatic promotion.

 

So we can drop 12 points, so lose 4 games 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
ian__marshall

ian__marshall

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, weller54 said:

What are our fixtures during this stupid, waste of time tournament?

Just looked it up and aside from Ipswich at home all of the others are winnable games without those selected for Afcon. Also, I can only see Kel and N'didi potentially going deep into the tournament so the others shouldn't miss the full month. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
weller54

weller54

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, ian__marshall said:

Just looked it up and aside from Ipswich at home all of the others are winnable games without those selected for Afcon. Also, I can only see Kel and N'didi potentially going deep into the tournament so the others shouldn't miss the full month. 

Only Ndidi will be missed then!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Les-TA-Jon

Les-TA-Jon

Posted
Posted

Increasingly looking like Leeds/Southampton need close to perfect 2nd halves of the season and us to fall off a fair bit, for them to overcome us. 

 

image.thumb.png.c2b784ba1d36532e837b66f081cdfce9.png

 

You can see above:

  • Each team's Points Targets (107 for the record, 90 for likely autos, 100 and 95 for added scenarios) with their Current Points Per Game, compared to Required Points Per Game
  • The same data expressed as Current Dropped Points Per Game and Droppable Points Per Game 
  • Leicester can drop points at a rate 3 times higher than we are currently and still get 90 points (0.52 CD PPG vs 1.48 D PPG) 

Obviously a ton of football still to play, so this sort of analysis struggles to be predictive but it at least shows how difficult each team's respective tasks are, in relation to one another. 

 

Looking like 90-95 points will be enough for Autos. 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Foxes96

Foxes96

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

Increasingly looking like Leeds/Southampton need close to perfect 2nd halves of the season and us to fall off a fair bit, for them to overcome us. 

 

image.thumb.png.c2b784ba1d36532e837b66f081cdfce9.png

 

You can see above:

  • Each team's Points Targets (107 for the record, 90 for likely autos, 100 and 95 for added scenarios) with their Current Points Per Game, compared to Required Points Per Game
  • The same data expressed as Current Dropped Points Per Game and Droppable Points Per Game 
  • Leicester can drop points at a rate 3 times higher than we are currently and still get 90 points (0.52 CD PPG vs 1.48 D PPG) 

Obviously a ton of football still to play, so this sort of analysis struggles to be predictive but it at least shows how difficult each team's respective tasks are, in relation to one another. 

 

Looking like 90-95 points will be enough for Autos. 

Surely Leeds/ Southamptons figures should be the same given they’re both on 42pts from 22 games? 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Chrysalis

Chrysalis

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

Increasingly looking like Leeds/Southampton need close to perfect 2nd halves of the season and us to fall off a fair bit, for them to overcome us. 

 

image.thumb.png.c2b784ba1d36532e837b66f081cdfce9.png

 

You can see above:

  • Each team's Points Targets (107 for the record, 90 for likely autos, 100 and 95 for added scenarios) with their Current Points Per Game, compared to Required Points Per Game
  • The same data expressed as Current Dropped Points Per Game and Droppable Points Per Game 
  • Leicester can drop points at a rate 3 times higher than we are currently and still get 90 points (0.52 CD PPG vs 1.48 D PPG) 

Obviously a ton of football still to play, so this sort of analysis struggles to be predictive but it at least shows how difficult each team's respective tasks are, in relation to one another. 

 

Looking like 90-95 points will be enough for Autos. 

Honestly think 90 isnt enough for auto's this year. Leeds form has dropped and they still on track for 95 even with that.  The problem with this season, there is 4 teams on track for a points total that is usually enough for auto's which inevitable will mean the required points for 2nd will be higher than normal.  Although if us and Ipswich can maintain the gap and it becomes mathematically sealed with games to spare then the teams in 3rd and 4th will probably drop form with nothing to play for.

 

League one last season was interesting.

 

Quote

1     Plymouth Argyle (C, P)     46     31     8     7     82     47     +35     101
2     Ipswich Town (P)     46     28     14     4     101     35     +66     98
3     Sheffield Wednesday (O, P)     46     28     12     6     81     37     +44     96

 

Edited by Chrysalis
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...