Recession

[BKLFox]

I know we like to sit & wallow in our own self pity here in the UK but looking further afield & surprised nothing mentioned already is that Japan the worlds 3rd largest economy also slipped into recession. This pushed Germany up to 3rd but that in its self doesn't paint a true picture of how Germany is doing because they are curently holding back the growth of the EU's overall economy along with France, Italy & Spain as well as a host of the smaller nations.
The whole worlds financially unstable at the minute with the exception of US & China i guess but the good thing is that whilst we have dipped into a recession the forecast is short for us

[FoxesWalk]

On 15/02/2024 at 09:34, Stadt said:

Given the massive population growth through immigration in that time the per capita numbers aren't going to be good.

 

pretty dire 

[FoxesWalk]

We need 2.9% growth every year from now until 2074 if we are to maintain welfare spending at its current level… 

 

Something is going to have to give, and realistically it’s going to be reduced pensions and tapering off the public health service into a private system. 

[Leicester_Loyal]

8 minutes ago, FoxesWalk said:

We need 2.9% growth every year from now until 2074 if we are to maintain welfare spending at its current level… 

 

Something is going to have to give, and realistically it’s going to be reduced pensions and tapering off the public health service into a private system. 

Yeah I'm pretty certain they'll be coming for the pensions in the next 5-10 years.

[leicsmac]

8 minutes ago, FoxesWalk said:

We need 2.9% growth every year from now until 2074 if we are to maintain welfare spending at its current level… 

 

Something is going to have to give, and realistically it’s going to be reduced pensions and tapering off the public health service into a private system. 

I think that will result in major civil unrest tbh, unless it is somehow framed miraculously.

 

And there will be green infrastructure projects that will be needed too, or the payment won't just be in money, but lives. 

[Babylon]

3 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Yeah I'm pretty certain they'll be coming for the pensions in the next 5-10 years.

Pretty obvious they started the workplace pensions being compulsory. They'll just keep dragging the date further back for those in their 40's and 50's, the rest will not get one. 

[Babylon]

14 minutes ago, FoxesWalk said:

We need 2.9% growth every year from now until 2074 if we are to maintain welfare spending at its current level… 

 

Something is going to have to give, and realistically it’s going to be reduced pensions and tapering off the public health service into a private system. 

First thing is means testing everything. So many benefits are already means tested and yet others aren't. 

 

Should a deaf person (my partner is deaf so i'm using this example), get disability benefits if they have loads of money in the bank or earn a very good wage? This would impact me personally, and I think it's wrong that they do. 

 

And whilst everyone has paid in, should someone similarly with a huge personal pension pot, or with huge amounts of money in the bank a state pension?

 

Rather than punish all, the first step should be focusing on those most in need. 

[Greg2607]

15 minutes ago, Babylon said:

First thing is means testing everything. So many benefits are already means tested and yet others aren't. 

 

Should a deaf person (my partner is deaf so i'm using this example), get disability benefits if they have loads of money in the bank or earn a very good wage? This would impact me personally, and I think it's wrong that they do. 

 

And whilst everyone has paid in, should someone similarly with a huge personal pension pot, or with huge amounts of money in the bank a state pension?

 

Rather than punish all, the first step should be focusing on those most in need. 

I understand the premise of means testing a pension, but lots of people build this into their retirement planning. 

 

I'm 42 and would need the state pension to have any semblance of a moderate retirement based on my pension pot... I'm in that awkward age group where DB pensions were phased out as I started work and DC pensions weren't mandatory for companies to offer until I was in my mid 30's... that's a huge gap in opportunity to properly save. 

 

I'm already staring down the barrel of not getting a state pension till i'm 71....  I have a "potential" pension pot in the future of around £400,000...... which i'm hugely grateful for... but i've sacrificed alot of "lifestyle" now to contribute a healthy amount into my pension to provide in my retirement.  that £12,500 per year is fully part of that planning... 

[Grebfromgrebland]

50 minutes ago, FoxesWalk said:

We need 2.9% growth every year from now until 2074 if we are to maintain welfare spending at its current level… 

 

Something is going to have to give, and realistically it’s going to be reduced pensions and tapering off the public health service into a private system. 

OR we could

1. out law tax havens

2.Clamp down on tax evasion organised by the likes of KPMG,

3. Outlaw government fraud and theft (think track and trace save HS2)

4. Stop all subsidiaries to oil, gas, rail and water and becomes truly energy independent.

 

We'll have money to spare.

 

 

[Babylon]

35 minutes ago, Greg2607 said:

I understand the premise of means testing a pension, but lots of people build this into their retirement planning. 

 

I'm 42 and would need the state pension to have any semblance of a moderate retirement based on my pension pot... I'm in that awkward age group where DB pensions were phased out as I started work and DC pensions weren't mandatory for companies to offer until I was in my mid 30's... that's a huge gap in opportunity to properly save. 

 

I'm already staring down the barrel of not getting a state pension till i'm 71....  I have a "potential" pension pot in the future of around £400,000...... which i'm hugely grateful for... but i've sacrificed alot of "lifestyle" now to contribute a healthy amount into my pension to provide in my retirement.  that £12,500 per year is fully part of that planning... 

I appreciate that, but something has to give. And as usual those who plan and save get penalised. No matter what they do, people will lose out. 

[leicsmac]

All of this being said, who knows what the world will look like in 30 years, much less 50?

[urban.spaceman]

Why has nobody made the link yet that of the 3 recessions in the last 20 years - 2024, 2020 and 2008 - Sunak has been invovled in all 3?

[Parafox]

This is the banned Politics thread re-born and it's still active!! 

 

MODS! 

[whoareyaaa]

On 15/02/2024 at 14:54, Footballwipe said:

This is the thing. I accept that lots of people who have profited from the conservatives in power would happily vote for them again.

 

But I cannot comprehend that "normal" people on average incomes who need public services like the NHS will honestly look at the last 14 years and the current state of the country and say "yeah you know what we need, another five years of this."

 

Surely even the most dyed-in-the-wool tory should realise you need to have a spell not in power after so long. Regroup, recuperate, try and be less bloody unhinged and work your way back up. 

It don't matter who is in power conservatives or labour we would still be in the same situation.

 

America rules the roost.

[urban.spaceman]

1 hour ago, Parafox said:

This is the banned Politics thread re-born and it's still active!! 

 

MODS! 

[SpacedX]

6 hours ago, leicsmac said:

All of this being said, who knows what the world will look like in 30 years, much less 50?

[SheppyFox]

10 hours ago, BKLFox said:

I know we like to sit & wallow in our own self pity here in the UK but looking further afield & surprised nothing mentioned already is that Japan the worlds 3rd largest economy also slipped into recession. This pushed Germany up to 3rd but that in its self doesn't paint a true picture of how Germany is doing because they are curently holding back the growth of the EU's overall economy along with France, Italy & Spain as well as a host of the smaller nations.
The whole worlds financially unstable at the minute with the exception of US & China i guess but the good thing is that whilst we have dipped into a recession the forecast is short for us

Did you just say china is financially stable? 😂😂😂😂

[Sly]

18 hours ago, Greg2607 said:

I'm relatively confident that not everyone is "flexing it" with Turkey Teeth, boats, Planes and Yachts.   

 

The average person in the UK is struggling to put food on the table. There are large swathes of people who are having to use food banks.  They aren't thinking about a new car or eating at a posh restaurant.  This is the life that "influencers" want you to see, but it isn't the vast majority of society. 

 

There is so much unseen poverty in the UK.  we all turn a blind eye to it, because we don't generally move in those circles.   

Apologies! I agree not everyone is “flexing” as I originally wrote. I do think your average family though has higher living expectations than 30 years ago.
 

We definitely have wealth gaps in society and that has got larger within this period. The cost of living has squeezed the lowest earners much harder. 
 

I did some work with the Trussel Trust last year and they made a valid point to me. We’ve always had poverty within society, however with the world we live in, it’s more actively promoted so people are aware. They can only advise how many people they’ve supported and it has grown year upon year. It’s hard to put a number on how many require support now. Never mind 5, 10, 15 or 30 years ago. Unfortunately not everyone will reach out.
 

It’s an aside from this really, however certain private companies have pushed to make larger profits during the crisis as well. We’ve all seen that with some announcing record profits. 

[Trav Le Bleu]

20 hours ago, BKLFox said:

I know we like to sit & wallow in our own self pity here in the UK but looking further afield & surprised nothing mentioned already is that Japan the worlds 3rd largest economy also slipped into recession. This pushed Germany up to 3rd but that in its self doesn't paint a true picture of how Germany is doing because they are curently holding back the growth of the EU's overall economy along with France, Italy & Spain as well as a host of the smaller nations.
The whole worlds financially unstable at the minute with the exception of US & China i guess but the good thing is that whilst we have dipped into a recession the forecast is short for us

My personal opinion...

 

People buying stuff online hasn't slowed, if anything it's increased (at least going by how much stuff I deliver).

 

The difference is they're buying cheap tat from abroad. So much money is leaving the country. People bang on about immigrants taking our jobs... they don't have to; they're taking our money without leaving their country.

[grobyfox1990]

1 minute ago, Trav Le Bleu said:

My personal opinion...

 

People buying stuff online hasn't slowed, if anything it's increased (at least going by how much stuff I deliver).

 

The difference is they're buying cheap tat from abroad. So much money is leaving the country. People bang on about immigrants taking our jobs... they don't have to; they're taking our money without leaving their country.

Obviously we are an importer nation and need to be to maintain our standards of living. But I’ve always wondered how much money we spend via ordering online v shopping locally. It must be huge.

Whilst at the same time like you say hordes of people screaming ‘stop the boats!!! They’re taking our money!!’