The Championship to Premier League gulf is becoming harder to bridge

[davieG]

https://www.theguardian.com/football/article/2024/may/13/premier-league-relegation-championship-burnley-luton?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR2IIW1BphANgF9a2KEWSg7zU3g3RJLpvV1gAlyrDM9OBVztqS2yD6bSbDc_aem_AWBNNQ_-vFvHVrh6zT5qhZVDzrfbMA3fulSSxCqf7ztQYiX9Qm0eY75L7WKSkNfI11NG535cAaU2KZRB8MdH-xnK

 

The Championship to Premier League gulf is becoming harder to bridge
For the second time in league history, the three promoted sides will be relegated. And the underlying numbers paint a grim picture for the English pyramid

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Jonathan Wilson
Jonathan Wilson
Mon 13 May 2024 15.47 BST

Luton Town’s defeat at West Ham and Burnley’s at Tottenham on Saturday mean that, barring something astonishing on the final weekend (a Luton win over Fulham and a Nottingham Forest defeat at Burnley with a goal-difference swing of 12), the three sides who came up last season will be the three teams who go down. For those who fear the gulf between Premier League and Championship is becoming impossible to bridge, that is a worrying sign.

The truth is that, but for Forest’s four-point deduction for breaches of the league’s Profit and Sustainability rules, it wouldn’t even have been close. The other interest at the bottom came from Everton, before their recent run of 13 points from five games. But they wouldn’t have been in the mix either had it not been for their own 10-point deduction, subsequently reduced to six. The feeling that if you had to have points deducted this was the season to do it has been proved accurate.

Should Sheffield United lose at home to Spurs on the final weekend, their tally of 16 points would be the third worst in Premier League history, level with Huddersfield in 2018-19 but with a goal difference that is already 12 worse. The 101 goals they’ve conceded is already the worst ever in a Premier League season. But what makes this season stand out is that the 24 points Burnley have are the joint 10th-lowest in Premier League history and Luton’s 26 points the joint 16th-worst; the average of the three with one game to go is 22 points; the previous lowest average for the three promoted sides after 37 games was 27.3 in 2007-08 (Sunderland, Birmingham, Derby). On only one other occasion has the average been under 32 – in 2021-22 when Brentford, Watford and Norwich managed 30.3.

That two of the worst three performances ever have come in the past three years is a cause for concern, but each of the three sides who came up last season had their own problems. Luton, with a tiny budget and their ramshackle old ground with its 12,000 capacity, were always likely to struggle and, although they have run out of steam recently, they at least seem to have had fun: they may have ended up only taking a point from the three games, but they led at home against each of Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool.

Sheffield United lost three of their best players from their promotion campaign on the eve of this season, with Iliman Ndiaye and Sander Berge sold and Tommy Doyle’s loan from Manchester City coming to an end. Only their Saudi owners will know why they conducted their business like that, but it meant manager Paul Heckingbottom was fighting a steep uphill battle from the start.

In terms of the Championship’s capacity to compete, Burnley are the big worry. It’s true that they lost Nathan Tella, who had been on loan from Southampton but ended up joining Bayer Leverksuen and their Bundesliga success, and some of their other business perhaps looks a little naive in retrospect – a lot of bright young promise and not much Premier League experience – but given how impressive they had been in winning the Championship, far more was expected of them. They ended up being undone by the number of mistakes they made at the back, particularly when trying to play out.

They’ll be among the favourites for promotion next season and, if Vincent Kompany can develop a slightly less idealistic streak, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if his second crack at the Premier League provides rather more successful than his first. There have long been mezzanine clubs, located somewhere between the Premier League and the Championship; the fact that three of last season’s relegated sides finished in the top four in the Championship suggests their status may be becoming more sharply defined.

Only once before, in 1997-98, have all three promoted sides gone down – and it’s worth bearing in mind that last season all three promoted sides (Fulham, Bournemouth and Forest) stayed up. That said, there have been 12 occasions when two or more of the promoted sides have gone down immediately, and three of those have come in the last four seasons, six in the last 10. The days when a Blackburn, a Newcastle or a Forest could come up and finish in the top four, as happened in the first three seasons of the Premier League, are long gone; Wolves in 2018-19 are the only promoted side to finish in the top eight in the past 17 seasons.
Does it matter? Perhaps not. Modern football is designed for the elite and there’s clearly a section of the audience who don’t much care who they’re beating. But one of the great joys and strengths of the game in England is the pyramid, the idea that the biggest club and the smallest village side all compete in the same vast structure and that everybody can move up or move down according to form. It’s also a proven means of talent development. But a pyramid has to be relatively smooth; if there are vast, almost unscalable steps, it becomes something else altogether.

This is an extract from Soccer with Jonathan Wilson, a weekly look from the Guardian US at the game in Europe and beyond. Subscribe for free here. Have a question for Jonathan? Email [email protected], and he’ll answer the best in a future edition.

 

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[AKCJ]

These things are always said when three dogshite teams get promoted and don't do anything to improve themselves.

 

People are quick to forget that in 22/23 all three promoted teams stayed up.

[James_lcfc]

31 minutes ago, AKCJ said:

These things are always said when three dogshite teams get promoted and don't do anything to improve themselves.

 

People are quick to forget that in 22/23 all three promoted teams stayed up.

Burnley won the league with 101 points then spent £100m?

 

Barely even got close to staying up.

 

Last season was an anomaly...and that's before you consider that Bournemouth and Fulham spent a healthy amount...and Forest went mental.

 

The article is pretty spot on.

[TheGoldenGod]

11 minutes ago, James_lcfc said:

Burnley won the league with 101 points then spent £100m?

 

Barely even got close to staying up.

 

Last season was an anomaly...and that's before you consider that Bournemouth and Fulham spent a healthy amount...and Forest went mental.

 

The article is pretty spot on.

So what point are you making then? Because you've listed a team spending a lot and going down, and then also listing 3 teams spending a lot and staying up? There's not a blanket rule to make on who goes up and who comes down.

 

It's not rocket science to understand that teams who get promoted struggle in their first season because of the jump up and the disparity on quality from the teams established in the PL. Either way the "trend" that article is pointing out is lazy analysis and not a foregone conclusion. The 3 teams that came up were just not strong enough squad-wise, you could see that from the offset. Luton did the best as they were more of an unknown with and old-school style for the league. Ipswich depending on how their strengthen might be an unknown for the league as well and I'd imagine they could shock a few riding the crest of a wave.

Edited 14 May 2024 by TheGoldenGod

[James_lcfc]

1 minute ago, TheGoldenGod said:

So what point are you making then? Because you've listed a team spending a lot and going down, and then also listing 3 teams spending a lot and staying up? There's not a blanket rule to make on who goes up and who comes down.

 

It's not rocket science to understand that teams who get promoted struggle in their first season because of the jump up and the disparity on quality from the teams established in the PL. Either way the "trend" that article is pointing out is lazy analysis and not a foregone conclusion. The 3 teams that came up were just not strong enough squad-wise, you could see that from the offset. Luton did the best as they were more of an unknown with and old-school style for the league. Ipswich depending on how their strengthen might be an unknown for the league as well and I'd imagine they could shock a few riding the crest of a wave.

My point was that I am in agreement with the thread/article title - Despite it being 'lazy analysis'.

 

Apologies if I was unclear.

[mancunianfox]

Villa, Fulham, Newcastle, West Ham, Brighton, Bournemouth, Wolves, Brentford, Forest have all played Championship football in the not too distant past and have had varying degrees of success.

 

The three teams that went up this season had very different circumstances with Sheff Utd being chaos, Luton being more invested in their stadium project and long term future. Only really Burnley had a go at staying up but didn't invest in the quality they needed. The three teams that went down had way more assets to sell than relegated teams normally do which meant the financial advantages they had were even greater - even then only us came straight back up. I think this is likely just an unusual season rather than a long term change. Let's not forget that in 22/23 all three promoted teams stayed up.

[Vlad the Fox]

The article should have focused higher up the table and how outside the top 6 teams are generally only playing for mid table or survival. An hammer needs taking to the glass ceiling. 

[Winstonthedog]

We definitely need to spend ... but on hungry, passionate,talented players .... when you look at some of our purchases over the last few years ...  spending big doesn't always work ....  Martin O'Neil used to watch players for months before deciding if they could fit into the team ... a poor quality DVD of the best bits is no answer  ....  look closer to home for talent 

[fazzyfox]

Concerning for us re Burnley and "They ended up being undone by the number of mistakes they made at the back, particularly when trying to play out", we've had more than our share of scares and disasters at Championship level doing this, Premier League strikers are rarely forgiving, unless we have better passers right across the back and better movement / availability shown by the deep midfielders we won't be getting out of our box with the level of pressing most PL sides employ. Is there any reason our style will work where Burnley's didn't? 

[Finnegan]

I don't understand all the hand wringing over the Burnley comparisons tbh. Last year's championship was shit. If last year's Burnley were in this year's championship, they wouldn't be anywhere near the top four. Tbh, if this year's Burnley were in the Championship they probably wouldn't be in the top four. 

 

We've got a better team in the second tier after relegation than they do now in the Prem. 

 

And even more bullish, I'd happily put money on our coach having a substantially better career overall than theirs. Don't think Kompany is on Enzos level at all. 

 

[mancunianfox]

23 minutes ago, fazzyfox said:

Concerning for us re Burnley and "They ended up being undone by the number of mistakes they made at the back, particularly when trying to play out", we've had more than our share of scares and disasters at Championship level doing this, Premier League strikers are rarely forgiving, unless we have better passers right across the back and better movement / availability shown by the deep midfielders we won't be getting out of our box with the level of pressing most PL sides employ. Is there any reason our style will work where Burnley's didn't? 

There are barely five good centre forwards in the whole division

[AKCJ]

1 hour ago, James_lcfc said:

Burnley won the league with 101 points then spent £100m?

 

Barely even got close to staying up.

 

Last season was an anomaly...and that's before you consider that Bournemouth and Fulham spent a healthy amount...and Forest went mental.

 

The article is pretty spot on.

They also lost pretty much their entire team from that season including star man Nathan Tella.

[Tielemans63]

Sheffield United didn't spend anywhere near enough to improve a poor squad.

 

Burnley spent loads but recruited poorly having gained success by loaning loads of promising youngsters when they were in the Championship.

 

Luton gave it a really good crack, but probably didn't expect to go up, and arguably weren't quite ready to.

 

Not sure there's any more to it than that TBH

[kenny]

32 minutes ago, Tielemans63 said:

Sheffield United didn't spend anywhere near enough to improve a poor squad.

 

Burnley spent loads but recruited poorly having gained success by loaning loads of promising youngsters when they were in the Championship.

 

Luton gave it a really good crack, but probably didn't expect to go up, and arguably weren't quite ready to.

 

Not sure there's any more to it than that TBH

I don't follow it closely but I looked at Burnleys transfer business last season and there were massive in's and out's. Whilst this has worked for Forest, just, you can't beat building a team like Ipswich and improving as you go.

 

Im hopeful that that majority of our squad is fine and we need to strengthen our wingers and 8's to give more options. Im not expecting a wholesale squad change that some people think is required.

[FOXYTALK]

Fairly easy to explain this seasons relegated clubs failings. 

Sheff Utd- Sold key assets and didn't replace them. Chairman is reluctant to invest and wants to sell the club. 

Burnley - Poor recruitment and inexperienced manager. Didn't want to adapt or change mentality or tactics. 

Luton - Inexperienced manager, largely championship squad. Not enough quality. 

[An Away Move]

Perhaps there should be a ceiling on what a club can spend on players and wages that applies to all. If some clubs then become super wealthy because of their global turnovers and cannot spend over and above on their squads it then gets put into their local community. The richest clubs become powerhouses of philanthropy. After all it’s the community that made these clubs. 

Edited 14 May 2024 by An Away Move

[when_you're_smiling]

43 minutes ago, Tielemans63 said:

Sheffield United didn't spend anywhere near enough to improve a poor squad.

Could they spend anymore though with PSR? Is that why they sold players, including one to Burnley? They still made a record loss of around £35m and look set to have a points deduction next season for missing due payments to other clubs.

 

If so, and they couldn’t spend, is this part of the reason behind the seemingly widening gap? 

[ealingfox]

16 minutes ago, FOXYTALK said:

Fairly easy to explain this seasons relegated clubs failings. 

Sheff Utd- Sold key assets and didn't replace them. Chairman is reluctant to invest and wants to sell the club. 

Burnley - Poor recruitment and inexperienced manager. Didn't want to adapt or change mentality or tactics. 

Luton - Inexperienced manager, largely championship squad. Not enough quality. 

 

Bodes well!

[filbertway]

Luton opted to spend on infrastructure which I applaud. Pretty sure the Sheff Utd squad was weaker than it was in the championship. Burnley not playing to their strengths.

[Lambert09]

3 hours ago, James_lcfc said:

Burnley won the league with 101 points then spent £100m?

 

Barely even got close to staying up.

 

Last season was an anomaly...and that's before you consider that Bournemouth and Fulham spent a healthy amount...and Forest went mental.

 

The article is pretty spot on.

 2 of burnleys best players were on loan. They looked a weaker squad  in the prem than in the championship tbqh. Ian Maatson. in particular was a huge loss. 

 

Sheffield lost their best player going in and got their signings all wrong. 

 

 

Luton started with the weakest squad, were cautious with the signings and aimed for championship players rather than prem.

 

All 3 did very little to give anyone reason to think they’d bridged the gap. 

 

Our squad is already better than all 3’s… yet we obviously need a lot of work.  so where is the surprise that any of them came back down. 

Edited 14 May 2024 by Lambert09

[Haywood_6]

39 minutes ago, FOXYTALK said:

Fairly easy to explain this seasons relegated clubs failings. 

Sheff Utd- Sold key assets and didn't replace them. Chairman is reluctant to invest and wants to sell the club. 

Burnley - Poor recruitment and inexperienced manager. Didn't want to adapt or change mentality or tactics. 

Luton - Inexperienced manager, largely championship squad. Not enough quality. 

That's it then - we're gonna be next seasons Burnley folks

[FOXYTALK]

5 minutes ago, Haywood_6 said:

That's it then - we're gonna be next seasons Burnley folks

You could say that. Although didn't we win the prem with a squad that was mostly from the championship??? 

[Jobyfox]

3 hours ago, Vlad the Fox said:

The article should have focused higher up the table and how outside the top 6 teams are generally only playing for mid table or survival. An hammer needs taking to the glass ceiling. 

That’s it for me.

We have six teams and, maybe, a couple of wannabes like Villa and Newcastle.

 

The rest are just also rans. 
 

There is something to be said that the established clubs, who have settled PL squads, have an advantage over promoted clubs. There is, however, a risk that established clubs could be trying to sustain an unrealistically high wage profile if they don’t get their recruitment right. That’s basically what happened to us as we were lumbered with high wage, low quality, players that we couldn’t shift. 

[James_lcfc]

20 minutes ago, Lambert09 said:

 2 of burnleys best players were on loan. They looked a weaker squad  in the prem than in the championship tbqh. Ian Maatson. in particular was a huge loss. 

 

Sheffield lost their best player going in and got their signings all wrong. 

 

 

Luton started with the weakest squad, were cautious with the signings and aimed for championship players rather than prem.

 

All 3 did very little to give anyone reason to think they’d bridged the gap. 

 

Our squad is already better than all 3’s… yet we obviously need a lot of work.  so where is the surprise that any of them came back down. 

Weaker squad in hindsight certainly, as we know now that their signings didn't work out. I wasn't necessarily surprised that they came back down, but I did expect them to give it a good go.

 

Fair enough on Sheff Utd and Luton - But you are basically saying that you need to spend and risk a lot to compete. Which is all I was saying in terms of the gap between the leagues getting bigger. Or at least being as big as it's ever been.

[Lambert09]

28 minutes ago, James_lcfc said:

Weaker squad in hindsight certainly, as we know now that their signings didn't work out. I wasn't necessarily surprised that they came back down, but I did expect them to give it a good go.

 

Fair enough on Sheff Utd and Luton - But you are basically saying that you need to spend and risk a lot to compete. Which is all I was saying in terms of the gap between the leagues getting bigger. Or at least being as big as it's ever been.

Depends on the structure of your team. Burnley didn’t fail because of their signings, they failed because of the established players they had weren’t good enough for the prem. Players like benson and zaroury who took the championship by storm ended up doing nothing.  From best player to not contributing for benson is worse than any signing. 

 

The difference is that a lot of ours have already played in the prem. Don’t think there’s any questions whether riccy, kdh, winks can step up.  For me, fatawu is still going to be great, he has all of the attributes.  I would have question marks over mavididi personally, he’ll play a role but i think you need another strong winger for his bad days. 

 

But you are right, there needs to be good money spent… not just by us but everyone. Clubs that sit still, tend to come down… so if the teams already there  are investing 30-40m at a minimum, than of course the ones coming up need to at least match that to be competitivene. 

 

The positive examples in recent times (brentford, fulham, bournemouth) all did well as the core they developed in the championship were good enough. None of the teams this year had a solanke, mitrovic, mbuemo or a toney. Between them they didn’t have a star and without at least one player with above average prem quality, you will always struggle. 

 

For me personally, we already have a core that are. Leeds do as well. 
 

Anyone else coming up will need to be extremely savvy. 

Edited 14 May 2024 by Lambert09