Cooper - OUT

[Beachyboy]

19 hours ago, jim5000 said:

It was a different owner when we sacked Puel. His son doesn’t seem as ruthless

We only really have Rogers as the sole example, and while he stayed far far too long, there will have been a heavy heart to sack Rogers, especially after both the good work he did in the aftermath of Vichais death and the success on the pitch, Cooper doesn't have that credit in the bank. A release from Rogers contract immediately after the FA cup win would of been a good move for both the club and Rogers, had that happened, he'd still be higher up the football pyramid than Celtic.

Edited 7 October 2024 by Beachyboy

[Tommy G]

17 minutes ago, pmcla26 said:

I disagree, if we had been playing more progressive, attacking football in a similar style to last season and hadn't quite got the points yet then I think that I'd gain more encouragement than from what I've seen so far and be more willing to give him time. 

 

The underlying data and consistently not picking our best players/making odd substitutions makes it hard to feel like a PPG (like we have currently) is sustainable. 

 

I'm happy for Cooper to get his first win at the weekend though. I have nothing against him personally and think he seems like a decent guy, but he seems to have a bit of an inferior mentality and I can't get on board with his team selections/style of play. 

I think if you quoted the rest of the post rather than half of it I called out his selections, tactics and subs too. Points over style is the most important thing this season, we need to stay up and build from there. No point being style focused and losing 4-3 every match. Longer term once we have a foothold in the league we need a new identity, a bit like what Bournemouth and Brighton have achieved since being promoted. 

Edited 7 October 2024 by Tommy G

[Bourbon Fox]

4 hours ago, Hinckleyfox said:

The football being atrocious is the bigger problem here, and its my belief that the efforts should be focussed on making us a more attacking threat

100%

[ClaphamFox]

7 minutes ago, CosbehFox said:

https://understat.com/league/EPL/2023

 

Expected points table from 23-24. 

 

Notably got all three relegated clubs correct - and the next three clubs; Manchester United, West Ham and Wolves. All three of those have had poor starts to the season. That's a perfect example of how it can predict performance and sense a trend for failure. 

It also shows that a large number of teams obtained significantly more or less points than predicted by the x stats. If xG and xGA were really accurate predictors of points acquired over a season, surely we would not be seeing the kind of wild discrepancies shown in the red and green figures in the final column of that table?

 

It's very notable that the bottom five teams all comfortably fell short of their expected points for the season. Is it not possible that while xG and xGA might be good art rating the quality of chances created and conceded, they are very poor at showing how efficient individual teams are at scoring and/or defending those chances? The assumption of mean reversion implies that all teams are equally efficient over the course of the season and therefore that the xG/xGA stats will be a good indicator of final points totals, but the table in that link suggests otherwise.

[FLAN]

1 hour ago, tickler28 said:

I give up.....put it this way Wolves and Southampton and Palace have less points between them than we do.....are any of their managers getting sacked?

I guess wolves have a positive benchmark they can look back on with their manager. They also don’t really replace two big assets that got sold. 
southamptons manager has some credit from last season. Cooper doesn’t have a lot to fall back on recently 

[ithuriel]

Was told by someone I know, can't mention too much but he overheard Coops on Saturday mention they should make some subs and one of his backroom staff told him no,  so he did not. Make of that what you will.

[RoboFox]

Just now, ithuriel said:

Was told by someone I know, can't mention too much but he overheard Coops on Saturday mention they should make some subs and one of his backroom staff told him no,  so he did not. Make of that what you will.

Pretty sure someone on Radio Leicester said Faes was bellowing at the bench for a good 5 minutes for them to make a change when we were getting battered. 

[CosbehFox]

Just now, ClaphamFox said:

It also shows that a large number of teams obtained significantly more or less points than predicted by the x stats. If xG and xGA were really accurate predictors of points acquired over a season, surely we would not be seeing the kind of wild discrepancies shown in the red and green figures in the final column of that table?

 

It's very notable that the bottom five teams all comfortably fell short of their expected points for the season. Is it not possible that while xG and xGA might be good art rating the quality of chances created and conceded, they are very poor at showing how efficient individual teams are at scoring and/or defending those chances? The assumption of mean reversion implies that all teams are equally efficient over the course of the season and therefore that the xG/xGA stats will be a good indicator of final points totals, but the table in that link suggests otherwise.

That's the nature of the expected points model. It's not a direct translation of xG scoreline - 3 pts for a win, 1 for a draw. The Understat figures differ - as the description below. 

 

I'm taking Bournemouth v Villa as an example https://understat.com/match/11883. "Chances" is worded a bit strange. It doesn't mean chances as it relates to shots, it represents the match outcome based on expected goals.

So for this example, there was a 70% chance for a Bournemouth win, 17% chance of a draw, and 13% chance of a Villa win. These figures are calculated by replaying the match many times (probably about 10,000). You take the xG from each shot in the match and replay it. For example, Villa's goal has an xG of 0.43 so generate a random number between 0 and 1, if your generated number is less than or equal to 0.43 you consider it a goal.

Once you do that for every shot you can determine whether your match was a Win, Draw, or Loss. You then repeat lots of times and can model the percentage chances of each outcome.

Once you have these figures, you can use them to calculate xPTS. To Calculate Bournemouth's xPTS you take their win percentage multiplied by 3 points plus their draw percentage (1 point for a draw).

(0.70 * 3) + 0.17 = 2.27

 

So the understat model allows for what you describe. Ie. what happens if all of the shots are we retaken and it brings up all the projections if teams were efficient. In short, an expected points tally is different to expected goals tally. 

 

That's often why the fairer comparison is the positioning in the expected points table compared to the actual position. 

 

[orangecity23]

1 hour ago, Beachyboy said:

We only really have Rogers as the sole example, and while he stayed far far too long, there will have been a heavy heart to sack Rogers, especially after both the good work he did in the aftermath of Vichais death and the success on the pitch, Cooper doesn't have that credit in the bank. A release from Rogers contract immediately after the FA cup win would of been a good move for both the club and Rogers, had that happened, he'd still be higher up the football pyramid than Celtic.

If I remember correctly - didn't Top sack Puel? I have a distinct memory that Puel was the manager at the time of the tragic accident

[worth_the_wait]

2 hours ago, RonnieTodger said:

I am absolutely dreading that Forest game. Think it will come to a head there. 

I've never dreaded playing Forest at home, but always dread it playing them away.

 

In terms of Cooper's relationship with the fans, or at least the "undecided" ones, the Forest match is going to be the crunch one.

 

If we get stuffed, he's going to on his own.   If we turn them over good-and-proper, it'll give him a bit of serious breathing space.   (at least until the next match!)

 

[Vazman]

9 hours ago, Dahnsouff said:

No, not at all  Sorry if that is what it sounded like.

 

I merely meant the situations you quoted did not have the (self inflicted) challenges we faced, and that may have had a negative effect on recruiting a more desirable choice.

Maybe the lure of an EPL job would have been enough for some, but maybe we get a Euro Cooper in that case!

I like Cooper I really do, but he is out of his depth here, time will be our enemy, as we move further into the season the longer he stays, the point on Premiere league experience is a misnomer, and code for lazy recruitment of a manager whose CV at premiere  league level is not the best.

 

I hope Cooper smashes it out the park, I really do, because it will be great for Leicester, the squad is capable of more, but held back by a defensive, apprehensive,  manager, whose selections, ommissions, and changes are baffling, unfortunately as a club, our owners expectations are lower than low, so will be happy that we are not in the relegation zone, Saturdays win whilst ugly will be seen by them as on track to survive this season, short of being at the bottom for a prolonged period of time, likely until its too late to change, we are and will be stuck with Cooper. 

[Mon.is.a.god]

3 hours ago, UniFox21 said:

We're over performing by 4 positions, isn't particularly good reading for us 

 

 

This is nuts! When has over performing ever been a negative? Out fans are plain weird.
 

By the same token Arsenal are over performing by 5 positions.

 

Not particularly good reading for them, Arteta out…….   

Edited 7 October 2024 by Mon.is.a.god

[Dahnsouff]

15 minutes ago, Mon.is.a.god said:

This is nuts! When has over performing ever been a negative? Out fans are plain weird.
 

By the same token Arsenal are over performing by 5 positions.

 

Not particularly good reading for them, Arteta out…….   

Yes, it sounds good, but the projection  (it’s a projection and not a fact) is that our over performance would likely cease, leaving us in the shy-t.
Or.

You don’t blink (the board will never blink in our position right now, no way) and hope our current trajectory continues.

Edited 7 October 2024 by Dahnsouff

[Mon.is.a.god]

Funny how people are now saying our squad are underperforming this season and good enough to be smashing teams when in the summer and back end of last season during our bad patch, everyone was saying how weak we were for the premier league and can see why we got relegated.

 

Make your mind up people! We’ve hardly strengthened and arguably weaker without KDH.

 

I'm not a massive fan of Copper and his ideas but the only stat that matters is the league position. Baby steps!

 

I beg anyone who is clambering for Maresca ball to watch Southampton and Ipswich getting undone by their own mistakes week in week out.

 

You can’t deny Cooper has built a great foundation/base whatever you want to call it. The only way is up, he just needs to grow a set and add some flair and attacking intent. Whether he’s tactically astute to do so leaves a lot to be desired but for fcuk sakes get behind the team and stop whinging post after post bringing up stats to paint an obsessive narrative.

 

The fact we’re getting hammered in the stats but coming out not too badly is a positive in my books.

 

I’m in high spirits since the win and enjoying the moment.

[cityfanlee23]

I think our squad is marginally better now than last season. Edouard has had a poor start but I think he is better than Daka if given a run, Buoanotte and El Khab fill a huge void we had last season, Skipp is better than Winks IMO, and it's really early to call, but the last 3-4 games I think Okoli might just be better than Vestergaard in this league, he's stronger, faster, more agile and his passing is really solid, maybe not at Vesty's level yet, but I'm comfortable with him at CB. 

Losing KDH after the season he had last year was obviously a blow, I still don't think he could do what he did last season in terms of his role at this level as he only has 1 foot, I'm not sure if he's been injured, but if he's not got a knock, he's already been dropped, someone can correct me on that. He's played 46 mins in the prem and has been dropped from the match day squad in 3 matches, I don't think him and Skipp are too far from each other in terms of ability. 

[winteriscoming]

49 minutes ago, Mon.is.a.god said:

Funny how people are now saying our squad are underperforming this season and good enough to be smashing teams when in the summer and back end of last season during our bad patch, everyone was saying how weak we were for the premier league and can see why we got relegated.

 

Make your mind up people! We’ve hardly strengthened and arguably weaker without KDH.

 

I'm not a massive fan of Copper and his ideas but the only stat that matters is the league position. Baby steps!

 

I beg anyone who is clambering for Maresca ball to watch Southampton and Ipswich getting undone by their own mistakes week in week out.

 

You can’t deny Cooper has built a great foundation/base whatever you want to call it. The only way is up, he just needs to grow a set and add some flair and attacking intent. Whether he’s tactically astute to do so leaves a lot to be desired but for fcuk sakes get behind the team and stop whinging post after post bringing up stats to paint an obsessive narrative.

 

The fact we’re getting hammered in the stats but coming out not too badly is a positive in my books.

 

I’m in high spirits since the win and enjoying the moment.

I can’t agree about Cooper building a great foundation or base. Imo we are where we are in the league despite of Cooper not because of him. His tactics are non existent, his subs are baffling and often too late. He is the most negative manager I’ve seen down here. Makes Puel look like Keegan in his prime at Newcastle. How we won Saturday with just defending a 1 nil lead against Bournemouth was shocking. It was embarrassing to watch our tactics second half. Their keeper could of stayed in the dressing room. 

[Mon.is.a.god]

4 hours ago, Finnegan said:

FWIW I wouldn't be surprised if we're calling Mads Hermansen a generational talent in five to ten years time. 

 

Haven't felt as positively about a player we've signed since Kante. 

 

If we'd had him the last time we were in the Premier League, we'd probably have been comfortably lower mid table. 

 

Fofana first season for me. Was absolutely immense, true wonderkid material.

[murphy]

1 hour ago, Mon.is.a.god said:

This is nuts! When has over performing ever been a negative? Out fans are plain weird.
 

By the same token Arsenal are over performing by 5 positions.

 

Not particularly good reading for them, Arteta out…….   

Really?  Don't you understand it?

 

They call it over-performing because we are in a higher position than our performances warrant.  It is not a positive thing, it means we've been lucky and we are in a false position.   If we don't improve, when we revert to mean the stats say we will be second bottom.  

[gurru991]

4 hours ago, Tommy G said:

I think if you quoted the rest of the post rather than half of it I called out his selections, tactics and subs too. Points over style is the most important thing this season, we need to stay up and build from there. No point being style focused and losing 4-3 every match. Longer term once we have a foothold in the league we need a new identity, a bit like what Bournemouth and Brighton have achieved since being promoted. 

Yes ...  We saw what happened at Burnley & what is happening at Southampton. Style without substance will get a team relegated.  I will accept winning ugly  if it means survival.

[whoareyaaa]

2 hours ago, Mon.is.a.god said:

Funny how people are now saying our squad are underperforming this season and good enough to be smashing teams when in the summer and back end of last season during our bad patch, everyone was saying how weak we were for the premier league and can see why we got relegated.

 

Make your mind up people! We’ve hardly strengthened and arguably weaker without KDH.

 

I'm not a massive fan of Copper and his ideas but the only stat that matters is the league position. Baby steps!

 

I beg anyone who is clambering for Maresca ball to watch Southampton and Ipswich getting undone by their own mistakes week in week out.

 

You can’t deny Cooper has built a great foundation/base whatever you want to call it. The only way is up, he just needs to grow a set and add some flair and attacking intent. Whether he’s tactically astute to do so leaves a lot to be desired but for fcuk sakes get behind the team and stop whinging post after post bringing up stats to paint an obsessive narrative.

 

The fact we’re getting hammered in the stats but coming out not too badly is a positive in my books.

 

I’m in high spirits since the win and enjoying the moment.

Who are these people I think you have just made it up I think it’s the other way round tbf.

Edited 7 October 2024 by whoareyaaa

[Pliskin]

2 hours ago, Mon.is.a.god said:

Funny how people are now saying our squad are underperforming this season and good enough to be smashing teams when in the summer and back end of last season during our bad patch, everyone was saying how weak we were for the premier league and can see why we got relegated.

 

Make your mind up people! We’ve hardly strengthened and arguably weaker without KDH.

 

I'm not a massive fan of Copper and his ideas but the only stat that matters is the league position. Baby steps!

 

I beg anyone who is clambering for Maresca ball to watch Southampton and Ipswich getting undone by their own mistakes week in week out.

 

You can’t deny Cooper has built a great foundation/base whatever you want to call it. The only way is up, he just needs to grow a set and add some flair and attacking intent. Whether he’s tactically astute to do so leaves a lot to be desired but for fcuk sakes get behind the team and stop whinging post after post bringing up stats to paint an obsessive narrative.

 

The fact we’re getting hammered in the stats but coming out not too badly is a positive in my books.

 

I’m in high spirits since the win and enjoying the moment.

Baby steps ****ing backwards. 

[cropstonfox]

47 minutes ago, gurru991 said:

Yes ...  We saw what happened at Burnley & what is happening at Southampton. Style without substance will get a team relegated.  I will accept winning ugly  if it means survival.

Its a results business!

Results say..... so far it's acceptable.

17th in the table in May is the desired result.

 

 

[Mon.is.a.god]

58 minutes ago, murphy said:

Really?  Don't you understand it?

 

They call it over-performing because we are in a higher position than our performances warrant.  It is not a positive thing, it means we've been lucky and we are in a false position.   If we don't improve, when we revert to mean the stats say we will be second bottom.  

I raise my previous point once again. Those same stats say Arsenal are over performing by five places. Are they in big trouble too?

The key is “if”. You’re daydreaming something which hasn’t actually happened. Why do you live in fear?

 

I just find it bizarre that you can find a negative in a positive. Doom merchant!

[Mon.is.a.god]

On 02/10/2024 at 14:36, Union FS said:

 

Think this may be of some use to quite a few on here.

[cropstonfox]

1 hour ago, winteriscoming said:

I can’t agree about Cooper building a great foundation or base. Imo we are where we are in the league despite of Cooper not because of him. His tactics are non existent, his subs are baffling and often too late. He is the most negative manager I’ve seen down here. Makes Puel look like Keegan in his prime at Newcastle. How we won Saturday with just defending a 1 nil lead against Bournemouth was shocking. It was embarrassing to watch our tactics second half. Their keeper could of stayed in the dressing room. 

Well defended 2nd half.Defending  well is part of the game.

All of the back four have improved game by game..solid foundations.

Cooper in!