Crazy Stat Time!

[Foxmeister]

11 hours ago, Lillehamring said:

This certainly is crazy - even though we have scored more goals than any other team in the football league and have one of the highest shot conversion rates - our finishing is really bad.

It was certainly poor in the 2nd half vs Leeds and a few times vs Bournemouth but over the season it's been pretty good. It's a bit of Akinbiyi syndrome I think, the more chances you create the more opportunities for glaring misses. 

[KingsX]

On 27/02/2024 at 20:07, Sunbury Fox said:

According to the official stats, we've created 11 big chances in the last 3 games, and missed 9 of them!! 

 

22% is not going to cut it at the next level

 

 

[Les-TA-Jon]

37 minutes ago, KingsX said:

22% is not going to cut it at the next level

Is that our season long rate though or just this (meaningless) 3 game sample? 

 

Also, given those teams are 3rd, 10th, 1st, 5th and 7th respectively, is that a fair benchmark? We only need 17th or slightly better next season.

 

What are the conversion rates for the bottom 3? 

Edited 29 February by Les-TA-Jon

[blaaklint]

3 hours ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

Is that our season long rate though or just this (meaningless) 3 game sample? 

 

Also, given those teams are 3rd, 10th, 1st, 5th and 7th respectively, is that a fair benchmark? We only need 17th or slightly better next season.

 

What are the conversion rates for the bottom 3? 

According to Fotmob, we've created 104 big chances and missed 58 of them. That's a conversion rate of 44.2%.

 

I suspect the perception of our poor finishing is a combination of recency bias and the fact people don't remember chances as proportions, they just remember that we have missed some big chances.

[BoyJones]

On 28/02/2024 at 01:07, Sunbury Fox said:

According to the official stats, we've created 11 big chances in the last 3 games, and missed 9 of them!! 

We do miss some really simple chances. Daka had two absolute gimmes in the last two league games. The Boro headed miss from a few yards and obviously the simple shot at Leeds. I know he was unlucky with the offside. Probably cost us six points and we could all have relaxed! 

[foxes1988]

47 minutes ago, BoyJones said:

We do miss some really simple chances. Daka had two absolute gimmes in the last two league games. The Boro headed miss from a few yards and obviously the simple shot at Leeds. I know he was unlucky with the offside. Probably cost us six points and we could all have relaxed! 

The Vardy miss against Boro was probably the worst miss of all.  Vestergaard missed two very good chances against Boro too

[Sunbury Fox]

5 hours ago, KingsX said:

 

22% is not going to cut it at the next level

 

 

To be fair, over the season our conversion rate of big chances is 44%. We have created 104 (already more than Burnley over the whole of last season with 13 games to go) and scored 46 of them. 

[Ian Nacho]

Someone needs to get stats on the number of away cup ties we've had since 2020. 

[trugerkem]

11 at home 16 away …. Sorry had a bit of time on my hands 

[Lillehamring]

8 hours ago, KingsX said:

 

22% is not going to cut it at the next level

 

 

It's a very isolated sample this though.

 

Our shots to goal ratio is 10.9% (70 goals from 642 shots) - only preston have a better figure (12.4%)

leeds are actually 7th with 9.2%

 

Our rate is the same as Arsenal who are third best in the PL (behind newcastle and villa)

 

Everton are dead last on 5.5%, Burnley are at 7%.

 

So, generally speaking, our finishing is not a problem - we certainly aren't wasteful, even though it sometimes feels we are.

[ajthefox]

On 28/02/2024 at 20:28, Lillehamring said:

This certainly is crazy - even though we have scored more goals than any other team in the football league and have one of the highest shot conversion rates - our finishing is really bad.

 

34 minutes ago, Lillehamring said:

It's a very isolated sample this though.

 

Our shots to goal ratio is 10.9% (70 goals from 642 shots) - only preston have a better figure (12.4%)

leeds are actually 7th with 9.2%

 

Our rate is the same as Arsenal who are third best in the PL (behind newcastle and villa)

 

Everton are dead last on 5.5%, Burnley are at 7%.

 

So, generally speaking, our finishing is not a problem - we certainly aren't wasteful, even though it sometimes feels we are.

Err...

[Royston.]

Bet there are many but do we have a 100% record at "new" Wembley?

[Rain King]

26 minutes ago, Royston. said:

Bet there are many but do we have a 100% record at "new" Wembley?

No?  2016.

[Aus Fox]

3 hours ago, Royston. said:

Bet there are many but do we have a 100% record at "new" Wembley?

Charity Shield loss to Man Utd.

[Aus Fox]

Though we’ve won against Southampton, Chelsea and Man City giving us a 75% win record - not too shabby

[StanSP]

1 hour ago, Aus Fox said:

Though we’ve won against Southampton, Chelsea and Man City giving us a 75% win record - not too shabby

Didn't we lose to Spurs 5-4 there? 

[Hamilton Fox]

1 hour ago, StanSP said:

Didn't we lose to Spurs 5-4 there? 

and 3-1 was at Wembley as well wasnt it

Edited 1 March by Hamilton Fox

[Aus Fox]

2 hours ago, StanSP said:

Didn't we lose to Spurs 5-4 there? 

 

1 hour ago, Hamilton Fox said:

and 3-1 was at Wembley as well wasnt it

Yeah, league games don’t count! 😂 

[The Doctor]

11 minutes ago, Aus Fox said:

 

Yeah, league games don’t count! 😂 

Since we all know that games in August don't count, that makes it 2 from 2, a 100% record.

[Dan LCFC]

 some drop. From 100% to 40% just like that.

[Lillehamring]

17 hours ago, ajthefox said:

 

Err...

Um, it's all there if you take the time to read it.  But just for your benefit (and i'll highlight the distinctions to make it a little easier for you) the point i'm making is that there is a perception that we have been wasteful in front of goal (especially in the boro and leeds games), but the reality is that we're actually really good at finishing. pretty simple, really.  

 

Go on read the posts again an you'll see that it all makes sense

[majaco]

2 minutes ago, Lillehamring said:

Um, it's all there if you take the time to read it.  But just for your benefit (and i'll highlight the distinctions to make it a little easier for you) the point i'm making is that there is a perception that we have been wasteful in front of goal (especially in the boro and leeds games), but the reality is that we're actually really good at finishing. pretty simple, really.  

 

Go on read the posts again an you'll see that it all makes sense

Does being condescending strengthen your point?

[HighPeakFox]

42 minutes ago, majaco said:

Does being condescending strengthen your point?

I think you meant to say 'patronising'...

 

[Lillehamring]

54 minutes ago, majaco said:

Does being condescending strengthen your point?

If people can't understand what i've written, then it behoves me to spoon feed my point to them so that they can see it.

 

It's borne of displeasure in someone clearly not reading what i've put but seeing the chance to get a few 's because they think, incorrectly, that they're smart.

 

 

[Sunbury Fox]

8 hours ago, Lillehamring said:

It's a very isolated sample this though.

 

Our shots to goal ratio is 10.9% (70 goals from 642 shots) - only preston have a better figure (12.4%)

leeds are actually 7th with 9.2%

 

Our rate is the same as Arsenal who are third best in the PL (behind newcastle and villa)

 

Everton are dead last on 5.5%, Burnley are at 7%.

 

So, generally speaking, our finishing is not a problem - we certainly aren't wasteful, even though it sometimes feels we are.

I think the conversion rate of big chances is a better measure of finishing quality than the shots to goals ratio. I suspect we do well on the latter as we take very few long shots and generally try to work a good opening before we shoot.