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Crazy Stat Time!

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4 hours ago, AllGoneTitsSchlupp said:

Was yesterday’s Dennis Praet’s first 90 minutes played for us? Seem to remember someone saying he’d never done a full 90, think it was on @BSLBPod

I believe this is just league games - so he still hasn't achieved that landmark.

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On 23/01/2024 at 00:00, FOXSE said:

For 107 points record:

 

Required From now

W13 D2 L3

 

Current to date

 

W21 D3 L4

  On 13/01/2024 at 17:14, FOXSE said:

For 107 points record:

 

Required From now

W13 D3 L3

 

Current to date

 

W21 D2 L4

Expand  

For 107 points record:

 

Required From now

W12 D2 L3

 

Current to date

 

W22 D3 L4

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A total of 69pts. is exactly half of the theoretical maximum total of 138pts. available in the Championship in a season. So if we lost every remaining game, we'd be averaging 1.5pts per game, which would still be above average, because draws are worth only 1pt. 

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On 02/01/2024 at 11:28, Xen said:

Put together a couple of projected tables (current top 6) based on PPGs of the season so far, and what might be required given realistic form swings.

 

First table is what would be required for our rivals if we dropped to their form. For instance, if we have results similar to Leeds so far (1.85 PPG) we'll finish on 101 points and Leeds would need a PPG of 2.65 to catch that.

Obviously, if we dropped to Sunderland's form then it'd also make it easier for the others to catch us than what I've listed as well, but it gets messy with all the combos of (LCFC@x's form VS y's form required).

image.png.54e9898f1c14bbad790a033f6be7c302.png

 

 

Second table is the flip of that projection: If one of our rivals suddenly hits the same form we've shown so far this season (a nice round 2.5 PPG), what would LCFC require in order to stay ahead of them (with at least 2 having to do so for us not to get automatic). Again using Leeds as the example, they'd end on 98pts so we'd need to earn 1.65 PPG to match that.

image.png.121e15e54ecca6b10a4d0579c0b5a8cd.png

 

 

Update on this after a few more games (that haven't quite gone how we'd have hoped).

image.thumb.png.74743249a58e6f865e85cf6f6179188e.png

 

On the left is our form and projected final points, if we matched each of the top 6's performance so far (a reasonable expectation, you'd think!). Then, what PPG each of those teams would need for the remainder of the season in order to surpass us.

 

Nice to see that even if we were to drop off massively to WBA's season-form for our remaining 17 games (W9, D1, L7), we'd still make automatics if the others kept up their current pace.

 

 

Edited by Xen
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15 hours ago, Xen said:

Update on this after a few more games (that haven't quite gone how we'd have hoped).

image.thumb.png.74743249a58e6f865e85cf6f6179188e.png

 

On the left is our form and projected final points, if we matched each of the top 6's performance so far (a reasonable expectation, you'd think!). Then, what PPG each of those teams would need for the remainder of the season in order to surpass us.

 

Nice to see that even if we were to drop off massively to Coventry's season-form for our remaining 19 games (W9, D2, L8), we'd still make automatics if the others kept up their current pace.

 

 

You've got us finishing on 94.8 if we drop to Coventry's form. 

 

But on current season long form, I've got Ipswich finishing on 96.9 and Southampton on 95.3? 

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29 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

You've got us finishing on 94.8 if we drop to Coventry's form. 

 

But on current season long form, I've got Ipswich finishing on 96.9 and Southampton on 95.3? 

Oops, that was meant to say WBA's form, so the row above! Ipswich needing 2.08ppg (currently 2.11) and Southampton needing 2.13 (current 2.07).

 

We also only have 17 games remaining, not 19, so the required form for 1.61ppg is W9 - D1 - L7.

 

Good spot. Corrected both above.

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5 hours ago, FOXSE said:

For 107 points record:

 

Required From now

W11 D2 L3

 

Current to date

 

W23 D3 L4

Winning 11 out of 16 will be a challenge but when you look at our remaining 8 home games it’s pretty much teams near the bottom/midtable as it stands 

 

Some tricky away games like Leeds, Hull & Sunderland but we’ve been phenomenal away. We’ve got a great chance 

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11 hours ago, Noahfence said:

Winning 11 out of 16 will be a challenge but when you look at our remaining 8 home games it’s pretty much teams near the bottom/midtable as it stands 

 

Some tricky away games like Leeds, Hull & Sunderland but we’ve been phenomenal away. We’ve got a great chance 

Our record against the bottom half teams is P17 W16 D1 L0 PTS49 only dropping points to a last gasp equaliser.

Edited by Foxmeister
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