Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

[Beechey]

3 minutes ago, Izzy Muzzett said:

Another win for May?

 

Considering she’s shit, she seems to keep winning these votes doesn’t she? 

She lost one earlier as well. Parliament passed NC17, which seeks to keep the UK in the EU Medicines Agency.

Edited 17 July 2018 by Beechey

[Buce]

12 minutes ago, Izzy Muzzett said:

Another win for May?

 

Considering she’s shit, she seems to keep winning these votes doesn’t she? 

 

Give it up, bro, she's a good Christian gal.

 

You ain't getting into her panties.

[Milo]

1 hour ago, Buce said:

No-deal Brexit would have big economic consequences – Carney

Bank of England governor warns of interest rate cuts if UK crashes out of EU

 

Mark Carney has warned that Britain would face “big economic consequences” and could need emergency interest rate cuts if the country crashes out the European Union without a deal.

Issuing the latest warning for Theresa May amid mounting division over her Brexit plans as Britain’s withdrawal ticks ever closer, the governor of the Bank of England said failure to reach any deal with Brussels would leave the country worse off.

“In a no-deal scenario there would be big economic consequences,” he said.

The intervention comes after the prime minister narrowly avoided a Commons rebellion from Conservative remainers unhappy over concessions she had made to hardline Brexit supporters, after accepting their amendments to a customs bill late on Monday. Carney has previously said every household in the UK lost £900 on average due to the Brexit vote.

 

Answering questions from the Treasury select committee, which had relocated to Farnborough Air Show to underline the importance of the aerospace industry to the UK economy, Carney said Britain crashing out without a deal would force the Bank to consider the future path for interest rates. He has previously said he would be prepared to cut borrowing costs to support jobs and the economy in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

The Bank’s governor said: “It would be a material event for interest rates if Britain leaves the European Union next year without a deal to smooth its departure. Our job is to make sure we are as prepared as possible.”

While arguing that banks in the City of London are able to withstand a disorderly Brexit, he warned Britain leaving the EU without a deal would trigger the fragmentation of the European financial system, which could drive up costs for consumers.

The UK might be left with “a lot of idle bankers” following a hard Brexit as much of the demand for their services comes from the EU, he said. His comments come after the Bank warned that contracts worth trillions of pounds between UK and EU banks may collapse following Brexit.

Carney’s latest intervention came after the Office for Budget Responsibility, the government tax and spending watchdog poured cold water on May’s claim that some of the increase in funding for the NHS would come from a “Brexit dividend”.

Releasing its latest fiscal sustainability report, the OBR said: “Our provisional analysis suggests Brexit is more likely to weaken than strengthen the public finances overall.”

This guy is a prize cockwomble and one of the original instigators of  Project Fear...Hate the cvnt

[Buce]

1 minute ago, Milo said:

This guy is a prize cockwomble and one of the original instigators of  Project Fear...Hate the cvnt

 

No need to prevaricate, mate.

[Strokes]

1 hour ago, toddybad said:

It's ironic that by making amendments yesterday the ERG has pushed remainers into making an amendment that essentially ends hard Brexit. JRM embarrassed by Soubry.

 

[Guest]

Just now, Strokes said:

 

 

[Sharpe's Fox]

2 hours ago, MattP said:

Meanwhile, just to make sure all the headlines aren't bad for the Tories tomorrow, Labour commits to continuing to allow anti-semitism that it defines as not being when it suits.

 

 

Good stuff. Israel shouldn’t be exemp from being called what it becoming; an apartheid ethnostate.

[Buce]

5 minutes ago, Sharpe's Fox said:

Good stuff. Israel shouldn’t be exemp from being called what it becoming; an apartheid ethnostate.

 

There is a very distinct difference between anti-Semitism and criticism of Israel.

[Sharpe's Fox]

16 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

There is a very distinct difference between anti-Semitism and criticism of Israel.

Not according to the IHRA which says being against the existence of Israel, saying Israel is a racist state or giving higher moral standards to Israel to conduct itself compared to other countries is antisemitic. How can right wing Jewish groups have the gall to complain leftists use criticism of Israel to hide so-called antisemitism when they use a definition of antisemitism that makes the critisism of Israel itself apparently antisemitic?

[Guest MattP]

1 hour ago, Milo said:

This guy is a prize cockwomble and one of the original instigators of  Project Fear...Hate the cvnt

The video of Rees-Mogg tearing him to shreds over compromising the independence of the Bank of England is well worth a watch. 

 

Obviously he's upset tonight, having been embarrassed by Anna Soubry after being defeated in the customs amendment

 

Message for the Tory remainers, get back in your box, the ERG is running the show now and you'll be unemployed if you carry on behaving like this.

[Guest MattP]

Just wished we had faced down the remainers properly months ago instead of waiting all this time. Wouldn't have turned into a shambles otherwise.

 

In other news...

 

https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entry/jeremy-corbyn-told-by-veteran-jewish-mp-youre-a-****ing-racist-and-anti-semite-margaret-hodge_uk_5b4e34cbe4b0fd5c73bfe020/?dh=&__twitter_impression=true

[Dr The Singh]

18 minutes ago, MattP said:

Just wished we had faced down the remainers properly months ago instead of waiting all this time. Wouldn't have turned into a shambles otherwise.

 

In other news...

 

https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entry/jeremy-corbyn-told-by-veteran-jewish-mp-youre-a-****ing-racist-and-anti-semite-margaret-hodge_uk_5b4e34cbe4b0fd5c73bfe020/?dh=&__twitter_impression=true

I totally get it, he see's Dianne Abbot as a negro slave, and it's his perogative toake her suck his cock.  He should be ashamed of himself.

[purpleronnie]

Brandon Lewis should be ashamed of himself.

[Alf Bentley]

3 hours ago, MattP said:

 

Message for the Tory remainers, get back in your box, the ERG is running the show now and you'll be unemployed if you carry on behaving like this.

 

Terrible how a once great party like the Labour Party Conservative Party has descended into Stalinist thuggery, dirty tricks and deselections, ignoring the outside world in favour of an ideologically-driven party civil war. 

 

You'll have to hope that Lord Snooty-Mogg and chums are running the EU and not just the Tory Party, though. Otherwise, we're just heading for a massive explosion in Parliament in October, aren't we?

God knows where it all leads, assuming the EU demand changes to the Chequers Plan. Some of you will be hoping it means a No Deal Brexit, but I still struggle to imagine this Parliament voting that through.

 

Grieve was on Newsnight tonight, talking openly not just about another general election or referendum, but about the break-up of the Tory Party, possibly the Labour Party and even the formation of a National Govt like at the time of WW2.

Wouldn't surprise me if we end up seeing scenes like we used to laugh about in third-world parliaments: MPs punching one another and wrestling on the floor of the Commons....and that's before it all possibly goes to the country again in some form...

[Stadt]

Who do you reckon is the hardest MP? Dan Jarvis? Ex forces tough man dishing out wallops

 

 

[Kopfkino]

Have paid no attention to any of the goings on for weeks now but caught up on it whilst bored at work tonight.

 

Quite frankly the country's gone bonkers. How anyone still has the remotest interest is beyond me.

 

The government can barely govern. And a resignation from one of the great offices was probably a good bit of news for it. Got to feel sorry for the pragmatics in the party that are stuck between the complete lunatics on one side(best thing about ERG is they'll keep Gove away from leadership) and complete morons like Sarah Wollaston on the other side.

 

The opposition is as hopeless ever. And nowit's solution to a problem is change the definition to make it not a problem. So in government, unemployment goes up just change the definition. But tbh, worryingly, I want them in government, probably just cos they'd provide some laughs.

 

The Lib Dems promise to try to stop Brexit. Don't even turn up to vote to try to stop Brexit.

 

And to make it even better, parliament decided to vote against giving itself the ability to scrutinise and vote on future trade deals. Unbelievable.

 

But tbh, the most bizarre thing is people actually expressing a willingness to vote for any of them. What an absolute mess the country is

 

Somehow Tony Blair and John Major still think anyone cares what they have to say. Who knows why they think they're important. Quite frankly the latter should look in the mirror to see a big cause of today's malaise. 

 

But in all this, I don't think The Chequers thing is too bad actually. 

 

Really, it's all just very ****ing boring and I wish it could all be over so we can get back to Post Office and bank branch closures.

 

Oh well, at least employment keeps creeping up.

Edited 18 July 2018 by Kopfkino

[Guest MattP]

7 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

Terrible how a once great party like the Labour Party Conservative Party has descended into Stalinist thuggery, dirty tricks and deselections, ignoring the outside world in favour of an ideologically-driven party civil war. 

 

You'll have to hope that Lord Snooty-Mogg and chums are running the EU and not just the Tory Party, though. Otherwise, we're just heading for a massive explosion in Parliament in October, aren't we?

God knows where it all leads, assuming the EU demand changes to the Chequers Plan. Some of you will be hoping it means a No Deal Brexit, but I still struggle to imagine this Parliament voting that through.

 

Grieve was on Newsnight tonight, talking openly not just about another general election or referendum, but about the break-up of the Tory Party, possibly the Labour Party and even the formation of a National Govt like at the time of WW2.

Wouldn't surprise me if we end up seeing scenes like we used to laugh about in third-world parliaments: MPs punching one another and wrestling on the floor of the Commons....and that's before it all possibly goes to the country again in some form...

Some call it a party civil war, others call it making sure the party sticks to what it promised in it's manifesto.

 

I think we are getting a bit carried away, we aren't going to see scenes of violence in the House of Commons, it's now up to May to come back with something from the European Union that she can get through parliament - we've seen Japan get something pretty good yesterday and I think we can be certain that Shinzo Abe hasn't committed them into joining the single market or the customs union.

 

The Grieve's and Soubry's though have now taken this to a new level, last night they voted for something that could have resulted in a GE and most probably a party in power whose leader is now openly being called a "fcuking anti semite" by his own MP's.

 

How would a government of national unity even work or be formed? Does she really think that both the unpopular sides of the main parties are going to just be able to get together to negotiate an ultra soft Brexit?

[Buce]

 

It's almost worth Brexit just to see you gammons having to become vegans...

 

Dairy products 'may become luxuries' after UK leaves EU

Reliance on EU butter, cheese and yoghurt means sharp price rises, says milk producer Arla

 

Everyday dairy products such as butter, yoghurt and cheese could become luxury items in Britain after Brexit, with price rises being caused by the slightest delay in the journey from farm to table, a report by the London School of Economics finds.

The LSE research, commissioned by the company behind Lurpak, Anchor and Arla brands, also found that speciality cheeses could become scarce after Brexit, with escalating costs whatever the outcome of the exit negotiations.

 

Ash Amirahmadi, the UK managing director of Arla Foods, said: “Our dependence on imported dairy products means that disruption to the supply chain will have a big impact. Most likely we would see shortages of products and a sharp rise in prices, turning everyday staples like butter, yoghurts, cheese and infant formula, into occasional luxuries. Speciality cheeses, where there are currently limited options for production, may become very scarce.”

The LSE report comes a year to the day after the government was warned that it was “sleepwalking” into a post-Brexit future of insecure, unsafe and increasingly expensive food supplies.

 

Britain’s food production deficit has been put in the spotlight after repeated warnings that the country needs to rely less on imports to feed the population.

Britain does not produce enough milk to keep up with demand, creating a dependency on the EU, including on dairy-surplus countries such as Ireland, Germany, France, Belgium and Denmark for everyday items such as cheddar cheese and butter.

If the UK crashes out of the EU with no deal and defaults to World Trading Organisation rules, prices will almost certainly rise as dairy products, along with meat, attract high tariffs.

 

A milk product with a fat content of 3% to 6% has a tariff of 74%, while fresh mozzarella is rated at 41% and unripened cheese at 68%.

Even if a deal were struck and there were no tariffs, imports would face costly delays at Dover, the report says. LSE estimates that every seven-minute delay at a port such as Dover will add a minimum of £11 extra per container because of extra labour costs.

In addition, rules of origin certificates could add €48 (£45), with veterinary controls costing £50.60 per consignment, the LSE finds.

“Fuel costs, lorry maintenance, loss of perishable goods shelf life and increased wages of lorry divers, mean the above figures [are] at the lower end of the likely range,” finds the LSE.

The research suggested that small cheese suppliers in France and Italy could find their products uncompetitive in British shops, generating scarcities and, in turn, price rises.

Amirahmadi said it was important to be clear that Brexit might bring opportunities to expand the dairy industry in the UK, boosting the country’s declining food security levels. However, he warned that this would take time.

 

 

“Brexit might bring opportunities to expand the UK industry in the long-term, but in the short- and medium-term we cannot just switch milk production on and off. Increasing the UK’s milk pool and building the infrastructure for us to be self-sufficient in dairy will take years,” he said.

 

Arla is the largest dairy company in the country with a turnover of £2.6bn and supplies the big supermarket chains including Sainsbury’s, Morrisons and Asda with branded and own-label products. It is a pan-European cooperative with production facilities in 11 countries supplied by its 11,200 dairy farmers, 2,400 of which are British.

Commenting on the LSE report, Amirahmadi suggested that farmers who owned the Arla dairy cooperative already offered the consumer the best possible price.

“There’s no margin to play with here in the value chain,” he said. “Any disruption means that if we don’t get the practicalities of Brexit right we will face a choice between shortages, extra costs that will inevitably have to be passed on to the consumer, or undermining the world-class standards we have worked so hard to achieve.”

[Izzy]

22 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

It's almost worth Brexit just to see you gammons having to become vegans...

 

Dairy products 'may become luxuries' after UK leaves EU

Reliance on EU butter, cheese and yoghurt means sharp price rises, says milk producer Arla

 

Everyday dairy products such as butter, yoghurt and cheese could become luxury items in Britain after Brexit, with price rises being caused by the slightest delay in the journey from farm to table, a report by the London School of Economics finds.

The LSE research, commissioned by the company behind Lurpak, Anchor and Arla brands, also found that speciality cheeses could become scarce after Brexit, with escalating costs whatever the outcome of the exit negotiations.

 

Ash Amirahmadi, the UK managing director of Arla Foods, said: “Our dependence on imported dairy products means that disruption to the supply chain will have a big impact. Most likely we would see shortages of products and a sharp rise in prices, turning everyday staples like butter, yoghurts, cheese and infant formula, into occasional luxuries. Speciality cheeses, where there are currently limited options for production, may become very scarce.”

The LSE report comes a year to the day after the government was warned that it was “sleepwalking” into a post-Brexit future of insecure, unsafe and increasingly expensive food supplies.

 

Britain’s food production deficit has been put in the spotlight after repeated warnings that the country needs to rely less on imports to feed the population.

Britain does not produce enough milk to keep up with demand, creating a dependency on the EU, including on dairy-surplus countries such as Ireland, Germany, France, Belgium and Denmark for everyday items such as cheddar cheese and butter.

If the UK crashes out of the EU with no deal and defaults to World Trading Organisation rules, prices will almost certainly rise as dairy products, along with meat, attract high tariffs.

 

A milk product with a fat content of 3% to 6% has a tariff of 74%, while fresh mozzarella is rated at 41% and unripened cheese at 68%.

Even if a deal were struck and there were no tariffs, imports would face costly delays at Dover, the report says. LSE estimates that every seven-minute delay at a port such as Dover will add a minimum of £11 extra per container because of extra labour costs.

In addition, rules of origin certificates could add €48 (£45), with veterinary controls costing £50.60 per consignment, the LSE finds.

“Fuel costs, lorry maintenance, loss of perishable goods shelf life and increased wages of lorry divers, mean the above figures [are] at the lower end of the likely range,” finds the LSE.

The research suggested that small cheese suppliers in France and Italy could find their products uncompetitive in British shops, generating scarcities and, in turn, price rises.

Amirahmadi said it was important to be clear that Brexit might bring opportunities to expand the dairy industry in the UK, boosting the country’s declining food security levels. However, he warned that this would take time.

 

 

“Brexit might bring opportunities to expand the UK industry in the long-term, but in the short- and medium-term we cannot just switch milk production on and off. Increasing the UK’s milk pool and building the infrastructure for us to be self-sufficient in dairy will take years,” he said.

 

Arla is the largest dairy company in the country with a turnover of £2.6bn and supplies the big supermarket chains including Sainsbury’s, Morrisons and Asda with branded and own-label products. It is a pan-European cooperative with production facilities in 11 countries supplied by its 11,200 dairy farmers, 2,400 of which are British.

Commenting on the LSE report, Amirahmadi suggested that farmers who owned the Arla dairy cooperative already offered the consumer the best possible price.

“There’s no margin to play with here in the value chain,” he said. “Any disruption means that if we don’t get the practicalities of Brexit right we will face a choice between shortages, extra costs that will inevitably have to be passed on to the consumer, or undermining the world-class standards we have worked so hard to achieve.”

Just think how much time we’d all save if we went full Vegan. No more grating cheese, spreading butter, waiting for eggs to boil etc.

 

And we could use all that time saved to tell everyone that we’re now vegan 

[Alf Bentley]

50 minutes ago, MattP said:

it's now up to May to come back with something from the European Union that she can get through parliament.

 

How would a government of national unity even work or be formed? Does she really think that both the unpopular sides of the main parties are going to just be able to get together to negotiate an ultra soft Brexit?

 

This is the chain of logic as I see it....and, of course, I might be wrong at any stage of the chain or might be missing something:

 

- If accepted by the EU, the Chequers policy might just get through parliament. But the EU will not accept it. It will not be happy about free movement of goods without free movement of people, services & capital. It will not be happy about May's "facilitated customs arrangement" or about EU and UK collecting one another's tariffs. Logically, in October May will return either with No Deal or with a Soft Brexit deal even softer than her Chequers proposals.

 

- If she returns with a compromise ultra-Soft Brexit deal, your mates in the ERG will ensure that parliament votes it down.

 

- If she returns with No Deal, the Tory Remainers will ensure that parliament votes it down. Under both scenarios, the vast majority of Labour MPs would oppose the govt - not least as Corbyn wants to trigger a general election. So, there currently seems to be no Brexit settlement whatsoever that could win parliamentary support (including No Deal).

 

Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe the EU will accept May's proposals. Maybe the Hard Brexit crew will blink and accept a compromise deal. Maybe the Tory Remainers will blink and accept an organised No Deal exit on WTO trade terms. There's no evidence that either the EU or the Hard Brexiteers will back down. The Remainer rebels have backed down before, but arguably just to keep May in post negotiating a Soft Brexit deal for fear of worse.....big stretch for them to accept No Deal. The Tories might depose May and replace her with another leader, probably a Hard Brexiteer, but any new leader would face the same numbers and impossible dilemmas.

 

It was Dominic Grieve who was floating the idea of a national unity govt and he didn't go into details. One possibility is that it could be agreed, without an election, in the event of the sort of stalemate I've described. It could involve the Remainer/Soft Brexit majority of the Tory party and the equivalent majority of the Labour Party, possibly other parties like the Lib Dems and SNP, too. Presumably Tory Hard Brexiteers and Corbynite loyalists would oppose it - but both are a minority in their own parties, even if they've both been the tails wagging the respective dogs. If May couldn't command a majority in parliament over Brexit, she'd surely have to go - and would have to advise the Queen if someone else was capable of commanding a majority. If someone backed by a Tory Moderate/Labour Moderate alliance were able to command a majority, they would become PM - and could seek to negotiate a Soft Brexit deal that parliament could support.

 

That's a big stretch, I grant you - and one that would probably have a limited lifespan, maybe just long enough to get a Brexit deal done. It would also have all sorts of consequences, possibly including the break-up of both main parties. How the public would react is also pretty unpredictable - except that at least a significant minority would be outraged. Maybe someone will blink. Maybe we'll end up with a Nov/Dec general election in a toxic atmosphere or some agreement to hold a referendum on the final deal. But something big needs to give somewhere down the line - and a national unity govt certainly isn't impossible.

[Guest MattP]

23 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

This is the chain of logic as I see it....and, of course, I might be wrong at any stage of the chain or might be missing something:

 

- If accepted by the EU, the Chequers policy might just get through parliament. But the EU will not accept it. It will not be happy about free movement of goods without free movement of people, services & capital. It will not be happy about May's "facilitated customs arrangement" or about EU and UK collecting one another's tariffs. Logically, in October May will return either with No Deal or with a Soft Brexit deal even softer than her Chequers proposals.

 

- If she returns with a compromise ultra-Soft Brexit deal, your mates in the ERG will ensure that parliament votes it down.

 

- If she returns with No Deal, the Tory Remainers will ensure that parliament votes it down. Under both scenarios, the vast majority of Labour MPs would oppose the govt - not least as Corbyn wants to trigger a general election. So, there currently seems to be no Brexit settlement whatsoever that could win parliamentary support (including No Deal).

 

Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe the EU will accept May's proposals. Maybe the Hard Brexit crew will blink and accept a compromise deal. Maybe the Tory Remainers will blink and accept an organised No Deal exit on WTO trade terms. There's no evidence that either the EU or the Hard Brexiteers will back down. The Remainer rebels have backed down before, but arguably just to keep May in post negotiating a Soft Brexit deal for fear of worse.....big stretch for them to accept No Deal. The Tories might depose May and replace her with another leader, probably a Hard Brexiteer, but any new leader would face the same numbers and impossible dilemmas.

 

It was Dominic Grieve who was floating the idea of a national unity govt and he didn't go into details. One possibility is that it could be agreed, without an election, in the event of the sort of stalemate I've described. It could involve the Remainer/Soft Brexit majority of the Tory party and the equivalent majority of the Labour Party, possibly other parties like the Lib Dems and SNP, too. Presumably Tory Hard Brexiteers and Corbynite loyalists would oppose it - but both are a minority in their own parties, even if they've both been the tails wagging the respective dogs. If May couldn't command a majority in parliament over Brexit, she'd surely have to go - and would have to advise the Queen if someone else was capable of commanding a majority. If someone backed by a Tory Moderate/Labour Moderate alliance were able to command a majority, they would become PM - and could seek to negotiate a Soft Brexit deal that parliament could support.

 

That's a big stretch, I grant you - and one that would probably have a limited lifespan, maybe just long enough to get a Brexit deal done. It would also have all sorts of consequences, possibly including the break-up of both main parties. How the public would react is also pretty unpredictable - except that at least a significant minority would be outraged. Maybe someone will blink. Maybe we'll end up with a Nov/Dec general election in a toxic atmosphere or some agreement to hold a referendum on the final deal. But something big needs to give somewhere down the line - and a national unity govt certainly isn't impossible.

Here's what I think is a more realistic chain of logic.

 

1) May comes back from Brussels with her red lines gone again.

 

2) She appeals to Labour MP's to pass it through parliament to avoid No Deal or the ERG voting it down.

 

3) That happens.

 

4) Hard Brexiteers replace May and start planning for the 2022 election.

 

Soubry was floating the idea of the national unity gov on Radio 4 (strangely seeming to think she would be in it as well) - I've not watched Newsnight yet, I just don't see this as a realistic option though, I mean surely for a change of that size the country would have to go back to the polls anyway and at the minute that would return a Labour minority government, they aren't going to then invite Tory remainers into it to govern, they'll set about implementing their manifesto (probably aided by the SNP in the hope of tearing the country to shreds) in whichever way they can. I still don't see a General Election though, unless the Tories actually want to get rid of this problem, which judging by the behaviour of the current government probably can't be ruled out.

 

People just wouldn't have the tolerance for this, it's not a time of war, it's basically a disagreement on trade policy.

 

Edited 18 July 2018 by MattP

[Beechey]

 

[Guest MattP]

Just now, Beechey said:

 

Good on him, he's far too good for they have become now anyway.

[Buce]

45 minutes ago, Izzy Muzzett said:

Just think how much time we’d all save if we went full Vegan. No more grating cheese, spreading butter, waiting for eggs to boil etc.

 

And we could use all that time saved to tell everyone that we’re now vegan 

 

 

Actually, I reverted to vegetarianism for the duration of my holiday - being vegan really requires home cooking and we were eating out a lot (they don't even have a word for vegan in Spanish, they just stick an 'o' on the end of the English ).

 

Fully enjoyed it - Queso de Mahón is to die for.

[davieG]

55 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

national unity govt

Can't see anyway agreement on the makeup could be reached on this.