Captain... Posted 12 November 2018 Share Posted 12 November 2018 (edited) On 11/11/2018 at 10:39, MattP said: where is this huge disaster people are talking about that means we should vote again? We are growing at 0.6% which is higher than the Eurozone itself and we have the highest employment in history. Some questions for the advocates of a second referendum though? Why should any Leave voter trust you to honour the result of it when you have already proven you didn't do that with the first? If Remain win when do we have the third referendum? Will this also apply to General Elections in future? If we have an immediate run on the pound and it becomes clear what Labour have promised is impossible instantly (certainly possible) do we have a second vote before he can form a government just to make sure it's what the people want? (After all they shouldn't be scared of it) What happens if Leave wins again and the government still can't get it's deal through parliament? Remain/Leave MP's are not all of a sudden going to vote through Hard Brexit, Soft Brexit or even the revokal of Article 50 is that is possible? Would the Second referendum be constituency based or popular vote? We may be doing better than the Eurozone in terms of growth but it is meaningless if it all comes to an end post leaving the EU. One effect on growth is companies on both sides of the channel stock piling goods in preparation for a potential no deal. Even if we avoid a no deal there will still be consequence of this stock piling as trade will almost definitely slow down around April next year. Why should a leaver believe a second referendum will be honoured? The first thing to consider is referendums are not binding they give the ruling government a mandate to pursue a course of action, a government is obliged to go against the result of a referendum in the interest of the country. The result of the referendum was honoured that is why we triggered article 50 and have been negotiating with EU for 2 years. Will this apply to General Elections? We do have a second vote after every General election, normally 5 years after but it can be called earlier, or be forced by a Government losing the trust of the people. Democracy is giving the people a voice, not giving them one choice. All referendums and elections are democratic in nature regardless of frequency. It is all the lies and corruption and dodgy spending during the campaign which calls into question democracy. What happens if we can't get a deal through parliament? My second referendum would be as follows, Remain, Deal, No Deal. Everyone has a first choice and a second choice, for this very reason. If any outcome wins on first choice votes then that is what we must do. If no option wins on first choice third place is eliminated and their second choice votes are counted. Imagine 40% no deal 35% Deal, 25% Remain. Remove remain then counting second choice of remainers, 45% no deal, 55% deal. The people have spoken deal has won. So then what happens if the deal fails? If no deal can be reached then we go back to the original count remove the Deal first choices and count their second choice. Now lets be hypothetical here. the majority of Dealers would rather remain. Then we could potentially get a 55% Remain 45% No Deal. It is a very good question though, and it would be interesting to know how many brexiteers would prefer to remain than have a no deal. It would also require second choice votes to be kept a secret as it would influence the negotiation of a deal. This then goes to your second question if Remain win when do we have a third referendum? Following the above method if the winner does not get a majority first choice then then at the next general election there would be the same options on the ballot paper. Until a clear majority is found. I don't agree with a lot of American politics but I do like the way they use elections to give their constituents a voice on different issues, such as legalising cannabis in that state. Finally, second referendum would be popular vote, not constituency. There is no reason for it to be constituency based. Edited 12 November 2018 by Captain... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buce Posted 12 November 2018 Share Posted 12 November 2018 I see Neil Young lost his house in the California fires: https://www.theguardian.com/music/2018/nov/12/neil-young-donald-trump-california-fires-climate-change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuchsntf Posted 12 November 2018 Share Posted 12 November 2018 (edited) 6 hours ago, Carl the Llama said: Again though you're fixating on the arguments surrounding the debate over whether we answer yes or no to the referendum question. I can accept that people would believe there's no new information in that regard although I firmly believe that there are many out there who have learnt more relevant information since making their decision but that beside the point. Nobody knew Cameron would cut and run the second results came in; nobody knew May would take over as PM, insist there'd be no snap election, call a snap election, then lose the Tory's parliamentary majority; nobody knew the government would need propping up by bribing the DUP, an act with implications on our approach to the Brexit deal-making process; nobody knew whether or not MPs would get a vote on the final deal, now we know that they will; very few people understood that the Irish border would be an issue, now it's one of the biggest talking points; etc. etc. New information abounds, including much I've not mentioned, and it should all be taken into account when pondering whether we should maintain our current course or have a rethink (be it along the lines of remaining after all or effecting an interim compromise like Jon suggests). I am not fixating on anything... Sorry but this information,on home front politics had nothing to do with project Brexit!!! How politicians lives roles and what govt,would be in office is totally irrelevant!!! And that's been one of The failing problems....Brexit had and has its basic rule and regulations and course it would run.We were wasting time negotiating on negotiations,that had no stand point... What new information abounds....Britains spokespeople,and the shadow ministers were either lazy and dumb,or simply naive..running into incompetence!!! the Brexit consequences and Facts were laid on The table,many decided to ignore them and wasted time on trying to turn them into points of negotiation. The Irish border was obvious from the start,I am sorry!!! Edited 12 November 2018 by fuchsntf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl the Llama Posted 12 November 2018 Share Posted 12 November 2018 1 hour ago, fuchsntf said: I am not fixating on anything... Sorry but this information,on home front politics had nothing to do with project Brexit!!! How politicians lives roles and what govt,would be in office is totally irrelevant!!! And that's been one of The failing problems....Brexit had and has its basic rule and regulations and course it would run.We were wasting time negotiating on negotiations,that had no stand point... What new information abounds....Britains spokespeople,and the shadow ministers were either lazy and dumb,or simply naive..running into incompetence!!! the Brexit consequences and Facts were laid on The table,many decided to ignore them and wasted time on trying to turn them into points of negotiation. The Irish border was obvious from the start,I am sorry!!! How can you say UK politics has nothing to do with Brexit? It's a direct result of home front politics! Without the former there would not be the latter. The sad thing is I agree with you on what a bad decision it was and share your view of the chest-beating shambles that the whole thing's been but you're coming across as though you're looking on from afar hoping we continue to blindly run into a disaster, telling us we're not allowed to learn from the past 2 years and change course now all so you can say "told you so" to the 51.9% of voters. Poor show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DANGEROUS TIGER Posted 12 November 2018 Share Posted 12 November 2018 A good post but that might influence the Remain camp, but does nothing to sway me. I would prefer leaving with no deal, than a watered down version, which we are likely to get, but even that would be better than remain, where we are heading for the creation of a "European State" which would be horrific. Doom and gloom merchants only profess pure conjecture, being stated as fact, and that shows a distinct measure of apathy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuchsntf Posted 12 November 2018 Share Posted 12 November 2018 49 minutes ago, Carl the Llama said: How can you say UK politics has nothing to do with Brexit? It's a direct result of home front politics! Without the former there would not be the latter. The sad thing is I agree with you on what a bad decision it was and share your view of the chest-beating shambles that the whole thing's been but you're coming across as though you're looking on from afar hoping we continue to blindly run into a disaster, telling us we're not allowed to learn from the past 2 years and change course now all so you can say "told you so" to the 51.9% of voters. Poor show. I hope of nothing untoward. I wish the Politicians had learnt from the last 2 years,but I am Sorry but the British public,have a generation of buffoons in office,and in the once honourable Office of the opposition... The internal bickering,floor shuffling,home positioning of many individuals has nothing to do with the difficult task of Brexit!!! That now seems a separate issue that not one group of the "selected" left in the ears of the electorate,have one iota of what they are doing,and Leans to the idea of morally if not criminal corrupt generation that has ever served office!!! I am more embarrassed than hoping the county of my Birth would fail. Again yes,I was a remainer..but there were hard but decent ways to go and give the people an hard tasking but honest Brexit!!! All chances squandered!!! We fought instead of negotiating.we wasted time...and time again making really stupid demands... There was nothing there to demand,only to negotiate...Plus I believe many quarters hoped somehow it would solve itself!!! For the EU,their are conditions that our politicians,tried to undersell to the British Public,with politic media backing them!!! Quite simply pathetic!!! The internal bickering,though parts were created by the Brexit question,home politics and countries needs were being sacrificed,by squabbling parties, Where I ask the question( you must not answer) is this chaos and bickering,hiding the fact that our elected Politicians are not Worthy of task put before them,either on the Brexit platform,nor the home front. There are good backbenchers,and good "would be" politicians who resigned,but I see not one ,of the major players who should even be on the Parlament shop floor. They played to the electorate galley,to feed their own ambitions,instead of getting on With business. It's been like watching and being part of an old Western,but there ain't an old Randoph Scott or the "Dukes" calvary to ride In and save the day!! And poor Bruce Willis would find himself without ammunition!!! Our whole energy should of been concentrated on by an all cross party "get together" concentrating on Brexit alone... With no home politics squabbling being brought to the table,or sold that it's all down to Brexit confusion!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr The Singh Posted 12 November 2018 Share Posted 12 November 2018 More I look at democracy and the votes morons make, the more I think dictatorship is the way forward 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon the Hat Posted 12 November 2018 Share Posted 12 November 2018 1 hour ago, Dr The Singh said: More I look at democracy and the votes morons make, the more I think dictatorship is the way forward If you think voters are morons, you don’t understand anything about people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain... Posted 13 November 2018 Share Posted 13 November 2018 11 hours ago, Dr The Singh said: More I look at democracy and the votes morons make, the more I think dictatorship is the way forward I’m a big fan of the benevolent dictator model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain... Posted 13 November 2018 Share Posted 13 November 2018 12 hours ago, DANGEROUS TIGER said: A good post but that might influence the Remain camp, but does nothing to sway me. I would prefer leaving with no deal, than a watered down version, which we are likely to get, but even that would be better than remain, where we are heading for the creation of a "European State" which would be horrific. Doom and gloom merchants only profess pure conjecture, being stated as fact, and that shows a distinct measure of apathy. That is your right and you deserve to have your say which is why a second referendum is important and democratic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr The Singh Posted 13 November 2018 Share Posted 13 November 2018 10 hours ago, Jon the Hat said: If you think voters are morons, you don’t understand anything about people. That's the biggest load of bull if I ever heard it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Footballwipe Posted 13 November 2018 Share Posted 13 November 2018 14 hours ago, DANGEROUS TIGER said: A good post but that might influence the Remain camp, but does nothing to sway me. I would prefer leaving with no deal, than a watered down version, which we are likely to get, but even that would be better than remain, where we are heading for the creation of a "European State" which would be horrific. Doom and gloom merchants only profess pure conjecture, being stated as fact, and that shows a distinct measure of apathy. "where we are heading for the creation of a "European State"" Can you find the "fact" in this statement for me, please? I mean I wouldn't want people to be professing pure conjecture as a fact now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
breadandcheese Posted 13 November 2018 Share Posted 13 November 2018 14 minutes ago, Footballwipe said: "where we are heading for the creation of a "European State"" Can you find the "fact" in this statement for me, please? I mean I wouldn't want people to be professing pure conjecture as a fact now. To be fair, the French Finance Minister did say this yesterday. The European Union should become “a peaceful empire” in order to stand up to China and the US, Le Maire argued. And although thanks to their wartime history, some Germans may find his talk of empire unattractive, Le Maire explains that, “I am using this phrase because, in tomorrow’s world, it’s going to be all about power … technological power, economic, financial, monetary, cultural power – all will be decisive. Europe cannot be shy any longer about using its power.” https://global.handelsblatt.com/politics/french-finance-minister-need-european-empire-980351 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Innovindil Posted 13 November 2018 Share Posted 13 November 2018 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46193571 Unemployment up by 20k ish. Wages still rising well. Record number of job vacancies. Still looking pretty good tbf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Footballwipe Posted 13 November 2018 Share Posted 13 November 2018 (edited) 39 minutes ago, breadandcheese said: To be fair, the French Finance Minister did say this yesterday. The European Union should become “a peaceful empire” in order to stand up to China and the US, Le Maire argued. And although thanks to their wartime history, some Germans may find his talk of empire unattractive, Le Maire explains that, “I am using this phrase because, in tomorrow’s world, it’s going to be all about power … technological power, economic, financial, monetary, cultural power – all will be decisive. Europe cannot be shy any longer about using its power.” https://global.handelsblatt.com/politics/french-finance-minister-need-european-empire-980351 He did, you're right. The French Finance Minister. One person, in one interview, said it should be a European Empire. It also says it's not an idea the Germans are down with, nevermind the other member states who'd need to vote on it. It's almost as if it's one person's opinion. Not anyone agreeing with it in the leadership of the EU, not any hard, written legislation or plans, nothing with unanimous support. I guess it depends on what you define as "heading for the creation..." but that interview ain't it. Edited 13 November 2018 by Footballwipe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alf Bentley Posted 13 November 2018 Share Posted 13 November 2018 23 hours ago, Jon the Hat said: They are not making that decision unchecked, they have to put it to parliament, a legal requirement which many were delighted with 2 years ago but now this is apparently not enough. Personally I think that barring an massive shift from the EU in the coming days, whatever is put before parliament will be rejected, the Government will fall, a general election is inevitable, and will require a new conservative PM. Welcome Prime Minister Gove! It's as yet unclear what parliament will be able to do beyond voting on any deal. It seems that it will be able to table amendments to May's bill, but these would not be binding on the govt. If May's bill is defeated (as seems likely), leaving us heading for No Deal, there is no guarantee that parliament will have a say on what happens next - only an informal assurance by May that it will have "a meaningful say" and that the Speaker will ensure that happens. So, there's no guarantee that parliament will even be able to consider a motion for May to apply for an Article 50 extension or to renegotiate something else, or for there to be a second referendum. As you say, parliament would be able to bring down the govt. But under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, it would need either a 2/3 majority or a vote of no confidence (simple majority). Would sufficient Tory MPs vote for either of those? The DUP would surely be crazy to bring down the govt as an election is highly likely to eliminate their influence (unless the Tories again got no more or less than 312-322 seats). Given the Brexit timescale, is there the time for the Tories to select a new PM and then hold an election? They surely wouldn't voluntarily call an election with May still leader after her flagship policy has been sunk? There's no guarantee that the EU27 would agree an Article 50 extension - particularly if the aim was just for the Tories to change leader (probably to someone more Eurosceptic) and to call an election with a deeply uncertain outcome. Dominic Grieve said that if May's deal is rejected, leaving us on track for No Deal, and parliament is not allowed a vote on alternatives like a referendum, then Tories might bring down the govt. But wouldn't the govt seek a Plan B (Article 50 extension, renegotiation of a different deal or referendum) - and/or simply replace May with a different leader - rather than go down the election route? Also, if May loses a confidence vote, parliament has up to 14 days to see if anyone else can form a govt that can win one. Presumably the Tories could try to agree on a new leader, avoiding a membership vote, who could cobble together a majority? If not, presumably Corbyn could try to do so - and could engage in horse-trading with other parties or elements of the Tory party? There'd then only be an election if nobody could win a confidence vote. Although I don't agree with Gove politically (surprise, surprise), I do have more respect for him than for most other Tories on a personal level. He was the one who was honest about wanting to leave the SM/CU during the referendum, who correctly torpedoed the incompetent narcissistic charlatan Boris, and who has recognised the need for compromise and intelligent strategies (e.g. doing a Soft Brexit initially, but seeking to harden it up in future). A grown-up in the Tory kindergarten... 23 hours ago, Jon the Hat said: That new government will have a mandate to actually Brexit, and will probably agree a interim arrangement for 2-3 years in the meantime. No deal is shit for the EU as well. You will note i have been pro-no deal barring a good one on the table, but it has become clear that the Government is completely incapable of managing to prepare effectively, something they should have done before triggering article 50, and certainly before giving away anything at all to the EU negotiators. What a bloody mess this has been. Honestly if you said today we could remain for 2-5 years then reconsider I would probably say yes. I still believe the EU is doomed, but my assumption that we were better off taking the chance to leave in advance of its collapse and being proof there is life outside it has been well and truly wasted by May and her idiots. Any new govt would presumably still have the Irish border/backstop conundrum to solve, unless that is sorted in the coming days. A Norway-type deal might solve it, but would split the Tory party. If they still had their majority, they could have shafted the DUP, accepted extra checks on GB-NI trade and got a Canada-type deal (both Norway and Canada clearly being on offer). Although I never thought No Deal was a good idea, I can only agree with your last paragraph. The failure to make adequate preparations is shocking incompetence regardless of your politics. This doesn't just apply to preparations for No Deal, either. What preparations have been made to counteract potential labour shortages in certain sectors or professions to replace EU migrants? There was a token gesture on farm labour, I think. Anything done re. doctors, nurses (still no bursary for trainee nurses, I think) or care workers? Then there were the promises of new global trade deals being imminent....now all bogged down in manoeuvring by national interests at the WTO, so we're likely to have no trade deals at all if we leave in March 2019. Could be a good time to be moving to Australia, Jon! Hope that all goes well for you. I loved my 4-5 months in Sydney back in 1990. A great city and commuting to work on the ferry across the harbour certainly beat most UK commutes - or sitting at a PC at home, as I do. Only spent a few days in Perth, but that seemed a pleasant place, too: I just remember it seeming very modern, with lots of plate-glass blocks, and more Oriental influence than the East....though all this was 28 years ago now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Doctor Posted 13 November 2018 Share Posted 13 November 2018 14 hours ago, Dr The Singh said: More I look at democracy and the votes morons make, the more I think dictatorship is the way forward 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuchsntf Posted 13 November 2018 Share Posted 13 November 2018 22 hours ago, Captain... said: We may be doing better than the Eurozone in terms of growth but it is meaningless if it all comes to an end post leaving the EU. One effect on growth is companies on both sides of the channel stock piling goods in preparation for a potential no deal. Even if we avoid a no deal there will still be consequence of this stock piling as trade will almost definitely slow down around April next year. Why should a leaver believe a second referendum will be honoured? The first thing to consider is referendums are not binding they give the ruling government a mandate to pursue a course of action, a government is obliged to go against the result of a referendum in the interest of the country. The result of the referendum was honoured that is why we triggered article 50 and have been negotiating with EU for 2 years. Will this apply to General Elections? We do have a second vote after every General election, normally 5 years after but it can be called earlier, or be forced by a Government losing the trust of the people. Democracy is giving the people a voice, not giving them one choice. All referendums and elections are democratic in nature regardless of frequency. It is all the lies and corruption and dodgy spending during the campaign which calls into question democracy. What happens if we can't get a deal through parliament? My second referendum would be as follows, Remain, Deal, No Deal. Everyone has a first choice and a second choice, for this very reason. If any outcome wins on first choice votes then that is what we must do. If no option wins on first choice third place is eliminated and their second choice votes are counted. Imagine 40% no deal 35% Deal, 25% Remain. Remove remain then counting second choice of remainers, 45% no deal, 55% deal. The people have spoken deal has won. So then what happens if the deal fails? If no deal can be reached then we go back to the original count remove the Deal first choices and count their second choice. Now lets be hypothetical here. the majority of Dealers would rather remain. Then we could potentially get a 55% Remain 45% No Deal. It is a very good question though, and it would be interesting to know how many brexiteers would prefer to remain than have a no deal. It would also require second choice votes to be kept a secret as it would influence the negotiation of a deal. This then goes to your second question if Remain win when do we have a third referendum? Following the above method if the winner does not get a majority first choice then then at the next general election there would be the same options on the ballot paper. Until a clear majority is found. I don't agree with a lot of American politics but I do like the way they use elections to give their constituents a voice on different issues, such as legalising cannabis in that state. Finally, second referendum would be popular vote, not constituency. There is no reason for it to be constituency based. Fair and valid points... One issue for me are the s short term analyse and results based on regular 3 month variations...in employment,consume,growth..etc..etc. The Eurozones,standard of living,was better and higher,well before Brexit was put on the table,thanks to the Northern countries... So any comparison now,has no meaning...My lot in Germany,and my other ex countries,like Holland,France,has improved not worsened. If I had stayed in England my surroundings and infrastructure offered,would be worse...Even if we took at the lower workers remit and social movement,but It's far better on European mainland than the UK.I You could say due to my work I moved from Working class to middle class,but that wasn't due to any recognised skill level... Old skills and qualifications,in the older professions are just not honoured in the UK,at the hands-skill level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
breadandcheese Posted 13 November 2018 Share Posted 13 November 2018 1 hour ago, Footballwipe said: He did, you're right. The French Finance Minister. One person, in one interview, said it should be a European Empire. It also says it's not an idea the Germans are down with, nevermind the other member states who'd need to vote on it. It's almost as if it's one person's opinion. Not anyone agreeing with it in the leadership of the EU, not any hard, written legislation or plans, nothing with unanimous support. I guess it depends on what you define as "heading for the creation..." but that interview ain't it. I don't think you can dismiss the interview just like that. The French Finance Minister is not speaking off the cuff. He is doing so alongside Macron who has also spoken about greater integration within the EU. The French position under Macron is one of closer integration. If Germany agree to this (which I don't think they will just yet), then that is makes it more likely than not to be the direction of Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon the Hat Posted 13 November 2018 Share Posted 13 November 2018 We should have no doubt that those in charge in Europe want more integration. Honestly they are very clear about it. More tax unification, a European Army, bigger control over budgets, the ability to punish member states for not complying etc. They want it all. They want it all. They want it all, and they want it now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 13 November 2018 Share Posted 13 November 2018 Another part of project fear vanishes.... https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-brexit-visas-no-deal-british-citizens-latest-a8631671.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buce Posted 13 November 2018 Share Posted 13 November 2018 (edited) 15 minutes ago, MattP said: Another part of project fear vanishes.... https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-brexit-visas-no-deal-british-citizens-latest-a8631671.html Not true. A) It’s dependant on there being a reciprocal arrangement. B) It’s only up to 90 days travel in a 180 day period. C) No free health care. Considerably less than we have now. Edited 13 November 2018 by Buce 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain... Posted 13 November 2018 Share Posted 13 November 2018 7 minutes ago, Buce said: Not true. A) It’s dependant on there being a reciprocal arrangement. B) It’s only up to 90 days travel in a 180 day period. C) No free health care. Considerably less than we have now. It may not be as good as we have it now but for your average Joe who likes to holiday in Spain it is no different. For people who travel extensively with work it might pose a problem but I’m sure there will be measures taken to account for them. My only complaint is that it has taken this long to be “agreed” and it still hasn’t been finalised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSi13 Posted 13 November 2018 Share Posted 13 November 2018 Wait, people still believe the medium/long-term purpose of the European Union ISN'T to create a superstate? Merkel calls for 'real European army' https://www.euronews.com/2018/11/13/watch-live-merkel-outlines-her-vision-on-the-future-of-europe-in-strasbourg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buce Posted 13 November 2018 Share Posted 13 November 2018 3 minutes ago, Captain... said: It may not be as good as we have it now but for your average Joe who likes to holiday in Spain it is no different. For people who travel extensively with work it might pose a problem but I’m sure there will be measures taken to account for them. My only complaint is that it has taken this long to be “agreed” and it still hasn’t been finalised. The lack of free health care provision is a major difference, particularly if applied to UK nationals who are resident there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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