Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

[Alf Bentley]

Anyone know whether parliamentary rules would allow May to make the vote on her deal a confidence vote - in the govt, not in her personally?

 

On the face of it, her deal stands zero chance of being passed if it is opposed by the vast majority of Labour MPs, all other opposition parties including the DUP, most ERG types and a number of Tory Remainers.

Yet, rumours suggest that few if any cabinet ministers are set to walk - and none of the senior ones like Raab, Gove, Fox etc. 

 

The Tory Chief Whip claims to have 20 Labour MPs who'll support the deal, which is probably bullshit, but surely even that would be nowhere near enough to offset lost Tory/DUP votes?

 

I just wonder if May plans to turn the vote on the deal into a confidence vote - not in her personally, but in the govt. That would be effectively threatening her own side with an immediate general election (unless a different PM can form a govt within 14 days), if they vote the deal down. Maybe that's what she's saying to her cabinet in these 1-to-1 meetings?

 

Maybe she hopes that such a threat would force the DUP and a good chunk of the Tory rebels to back down so as to avoid the prospect of an election and/or Corbyn taking over?

Of course, the Tory rebels might just respond by triggering an immediate leadership contest, but maybe she's gambling that they'll back down on that, too, for fear of the uncertain consequences?

 

 

[Alf Bentley]

Here's a very rough go at the parliamentary numbers for the vote on the Brexit deal (assuming Sinn Fein abstain):

 

In support of deal                                        Against deal

Tory loyalists 257                                        Tory Hard Brexiteers 50

Labour defectors 20                                    Tory Remainers 10

                                                                     Labour loyalists 242

                                                                     Other opposition parties 62

 

Total supporting deal: 277                            Total against deal: 364

 

 

I might be over or under-estimating certain groups. There might be fewer Tory rebels or more Labour MPs prepared to support May. Some might abstain, not vote against.

 

But, on the face of it, May has to find an extra 40+ votes from somewhere....

 

 

[Innovindil]

If May gets this through parliament then she needs to have her home searched for spellbooks or some other such stuff. 

 

Honestly can't see how a divided minority government gets a deal so bad through when it's neither acceptable by remainers or Brexiters. 

[Realist Guy In The Room]

To be fair to her, she’s gone to ‘put up or shut up’ mode.

 

Nobody likes this deal so if it’s voted through, we know that every single politician that votes for it is a complete charlatan.

[Voll Blau]

1 hour ago, Realist Guy In The Room said:

To be fair to her, she’s gone to ‘put up or shut up’ mode.

 

Nobody likes this deal so if it’s voted through, we know that every single politician that votes for it is a complete charlatan.

Quite. If the important thing was genuinely leaving the EU, everyone who voted for it should be happy to go out whatever the terms are. I strongly suspect that won't be the case, and the constant wittering from the people who have been the most public proponents of this suggests that.

 

The usual suspects will be harping on with their "someone else could've done it better" shtick ad infinitum. There'll always be someone else to blame - as long as it's not themselves.

Edited 14 November 2018 by Voll Blau

[Guest MattP]

48 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

Here's a very rough go at the parliamentary numbers for the vote on the Brexit deal (assuming Sinn Fein abstain):

 

In support of deal                                        Against deal

Tory loyalists 257                                        Tory Hard Brexiteers 50

Labour defectors 20                                    Tory Remainers 10

                                                                     Labour loyalists 242

                                                                     Other opposition parties 62

 

Total supporting deal: 277                            Total against deal: 364

 

 

I might be over or under-estimating certain groups. There might be fewer Tory rebels or more Labour MPs prepared to support May. Some might abstain, not vote against.

 

But, on the face of it, May has to find an extra 40+ votes from somewhere....

 

 

I think the Tory Remainers are set to back this now, which probably tells you everything you need to know about the deal.

Surely this means she has managed to confirm that the deal being presented to parliament is either this or no deal? If not then it just makes absolutely no sense as all to come back with BRINO - she needs to scare one side into this to stand a chance of it passing.

[Nick]

I think from the start of this I may of mentioned that when you vote for a unicorn, don't be surprised if you get a painted donkey with a dildo strapped to its head.

[davieG]

Meanwhile elsewhere in the EU....

 

The Italian government has defied the European Commission by sticking to its big-spending budget plan.

Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini said a deficit target of 2.4% and a growth forecast of 1.5% were unchanged.

The Commission, worried by the impact of high spending on Italy's high levels of debt, had told Rome to revise the budget or face possible fines.

It had set Tuesday as a deadline to Italy's governing populist parties to respond to its objections.

The Commission's warning to Italy, the eurozone's third-biggest economy, is an unprecedented move with regard to an European Union member state.

It will now decide whether to begin disciplinary measures against the Rome government.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46203605

[Kopfkino]

The reaction from the people who failed to come up with any alternative, remotely viable plan in the last 30 months is embarrassing. Bellend each and every one of them

 

 

[davieG]

It's looking like the only options were no deal or remain and even they probably wouldn't produce a majority vote.

[Nalis]

No deal would ever get passed by a majority anyway as MPs are split into three camps; the hard brexiteers, the soft brexiteers and the ones who want to force a second referendum.

[st albans fox]

I wonder how many (non momentum) labour mp’s would support the deal on the basis that they expect to be deselected anyway and rejecting it may force an early election which would mean them losing their job sooner ???

Edited 14 November 2018 by st albans fox

[Buce]

3 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

I wonder how many (non momentum) labour mp’s would support the deal on the basis that they expect to be deselected anyway and rejecting it may force an early election which would mean them losing their job sooner ???

 

None?

[Guest MattP]

16 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

I wonder how many (non momentum) labour mp’s would support the deal on the basis that they expect to be deselected anyway and rejecting it may force an early election which would mean them losing their job sooner ???

Think that's where the hardcore of 20 odd are coming from, certainly MP's like Flint, Mann etc will vote for the deal and even someone like Nandy sounded like she could be convinced - I think it's possible she can get 30 across.

 

This deal actually gets close to the "six tests" given Labour want "a customs union" this is far more aligned to their position than what the Conservative party stood on last year.

 

It's not impossible she gets the deal through bit it's unlikely. 

[breadandcheese]

20 minutes ago, MattP said:

Think that's where the hardcore of 20 odd are coming from, certainly MP's like Flint, Mann etc will vote for the deal and even someone like Nandy sounded like she could be convinced - I think it's possible she can get 30 across.

 

This deal actually gets close to the "six tests" given Labour want "a customs union" this is far more aligned to their position than what the Conservative party stood on last year.

 

It's not impossible she gets the deal through bit it's unlikely. 

If the Brexit deal gets through due to Labour support, then May is surely finished and a general election would have to be called as she would not have support in the House of Commons as leader.

 

[st albans fox]

25 minutes ago, breadandcheese said:

If the Brexit deal gets through due to Labour support, then May is surely finished and a general election would have to be called as she would not have support in the House of Commons as leader.

 

Would be ironic if she gets a deal through due to non Tory party support and then has to face a leadership challenge !  There is no obligation to call a GE unless the government loses a vote of confidence.

 

the point in the longer term is that this deal likely just ‘kicks the can down the road’ re actual negotiations in terms of agreement after the holding transitional period  - if the tories ditched her and elected a hard line brexiteer then the next couple years would be ‘interesting’ as this deal leaves Brussels in a strong position (as they have been for the past two years)

[Kopfkino]

3 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

Here's a very rough go at the parliamentary numbers for the vote on the Brexit deal (assuming Sinn Fein abstain):

 

In support of deal                                        Against deal

Tory loyalists 257                                        Tory Hard Brexiteers 50

Labour defectors 20                                    Tory Remainers 10

                                                                     Labour loyalists 242

                                                                     Other opposition parties 62

 

Total supporting deal: 277                            Total against deal: 364

 

 

I might be over or under-estimating certain groups. There might be fewer Tory rebels or more Labour MPs prepared to support May. Some might abstain, not vote against.

 

But, on the face of it, May has to find an extra 40+ votes from somewhere....

 

 

 

Or look at it from the point of view of each set of actors

Is the deal better than remaining? Yes - some Hard Brexiteers come round. The others are charlatans that will either use voting against to advance their own careers or just have such a lack of grasp of what is really going on. 

Is it better than a 2nd referendum? Same as above

Is the deal better than no deal? Yes - at least Conservative Remainers come on side

 

The ECJ ruling on A50 and whether enough in parliament would want to force withdrawing it is the only barrier in my opinion.

 

 

Still it's incredibly sad the level of discourse in this country. The PR machines have mobilised and their tribes follow. Remainers, who were going to whinge about any deal to try to get us to remain are whinging and their disciples follow. And the Leave PR machine has mobilised and convinced supporters that it is a terrible deal having not even read it, having not offered up any alternative, and judging by their comments such a lack of fundamental knowledge about how the EU and about how trade works. The end game is going to resemble something like Switzerland but without the depth. 

 

We've become such a pathetic polity, it's shameful. In fact I think I might have become a staunch remainer because I realise now we don't have the politicians nor the society capable enough to not delegate to a supranational level. 

[Alf Bentley]

3 hours ago, MattP said:

I think the Tory Remainers are set to back this now, which probably tells you everything you need to know about the deal.

Surely this means she has managed to confirm that the deal being presented to parliament is either this or no deal? If not then it just makes absolutely no sense as all to come back with BRINO - she needs to scare one side into this to stand a chance of it passing.

 

Last night, Justine Greening was addressing a People's Vote rally and Dominic Grieve was on Newsnight lambasting what he'd heard of the deal. Hard to imagine Jo Johnson backing it after his resignation - or hardcore Remainers like Anna Soubry. Admittedly, Ken Clarke sounded persuadable so long as borders were kept open for trade in the near future. There might not be as many as 10 Remainers who oppose the deal, but I'd be surprised if it was much short of that.

 

I also suspect that fewer than 20 Labour MPs will back the deal. That was the figure quoted by the Tory Chief Whip, who is probably exaggerating to persuade other Tory MPs to stay on board or Labour MPs to defect.

 

It's hard to imagine the DUP supporting May as the deal clearly establishes some different rules for N. Ireland under the backstop......and that's without considering the Tory Brexiteers. Even if some of them back down, the number rebelling would surely be well into double figures, at least. Even if only the DUP opposed the deal, May would need there to be more Labour defectors than the total number of Tory rebels, which looks highly unlikely.

 

It's hard to imagine parliament tolerating a "May's Deal or No Deal" ultimatum. There'd be uproar. Maybe she's telling cabinet ministers that she'll make the vote a confidence vote - or even promising that she'll resign if the deal is rejected, which might keep some of them on board, looking loyal and then "regretfully" standing as leadership candidates if the deal is defeated and May resigns? Am I too cynical? 

 

Today will be telling. If there are not significant cabinet resignations, that suggests something else is going on behind the scenes, whether it's threats, promises or whatever....

[Captain...]

1 hour ago, Kopfkino said:

Still it's incredibly sad the level of discourse in this country

 

1 hour ago, Kopfkino said:

Remainers, who were going to whinge about any deal to try to get us to remain are whinging and their disciples follow.

Yes the level of discourse is incredibly sad.

 

1 hour ago, Kopfkino said:

We've become such a pathetic polity, it's shameful. In fact I think I might have become a staunch remainer because I realise now we don't have the politicians nor the society capable enough to not delegate to a supranational level. 

Which is what this “whinging” remainer has said all along. Leaving the EU is not necessarily a bad thing but I had zero faith in this sorry excuse for a government and opposition making anything other than a complete hash of it.

[Alf Bentley]

1 hour ago, Kopfkino said:

 

Or look at it from the point of view of each set of actors

Is the deal better than remaining? Yes - some Hard Brexiteers come round. The others are charlatans that will either use voting against to advance their own careers or just have such a lack of grasp of what is really going on. 

Is it better than a 2nd referendum? Same as above

Is the deal better than no deal? Yes - at least Conservative Remainers come on side

 

The ECJ ruling on A50 and whether enough in parliament would want to force withdrawing it is the only barrier in my opinion.

 

 

Still it's incredibly sad the level of discourse in this country. The PR machines have mobilised and their tribes follow. Remainers, who were going to whinge about any deal to try to get us to remain are whinging and their disciples follow. And the Leave PR machine has mobilised and convinced supporters that it is a terrible deal having not even read it, having not offered up any alternative, and judging by their comments such a lack of fundamental knowledge about how the EU and about how trade works. The end game is going to resemble something like Switzerland but without the depth. 

 

We've become such a pathetic polity, it's shameful. In fact I think I might have become a staunch remainer because I realise now we don't have the politicians nor the society capable enough to not delegate to a supranational level. 

 

Your first paragraph only considers the negative alternatives available to each group. Each of those groups will also be looking at positive alternatives that might become available.

Hard Brexiteers will be looking not only at the risk of Remain/2nd referendum, but also at the potential for a Harder deal - whether that's achieved through No Deal, through renegotiation, by replacing May with a new PM etc.

Likewise, Tory Remainers will be looking not only at the risk of No Deal, but also at the potential for renegotiation, a second referendum etc.

 

Some might well be swayed by the risks that you mention and opt to compromise on May's deal. But others will think there's a serious prospect of getting something better by voting the deal down.

 

They also have to face their constituents in the future - in person and at the ballot box. To be fair, they'll probably be expecting hostility from some people regardless of the outcome. But they can probably expect years of hostility - and electoral defeat, in some cases - if they back a deal that will fulfil the expectations of almost nobody on either side....and, yes, I do accept that those expectations were/are completely unrealistic in many cases.

 

I cannot imagine that Parliament would withdraw its Article 50 notice to leave (if the ruling upholds this option) without calling either a referendum or an election. That would risk public outrage about lack of democracy even greater than is likely with a referendum, and would leave the public even more alienated from our democratic politics than they already are. It could also stimulate a rise in Far Right politics and could lead to street violence by a minority.

 

I can only agree with the disillusionment of your last 2 paragraphs, Kopf.

 

As a recent student, do you know whether May can simply declare the vote on her deal a confidence vote? Maybe I'm missing something, but I'm struggling to see why she thinks she has a chance of winning a vote on this deal, given the vehement rejection of various crucial groups of MPs.

[Kopfkino]

1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Your first paragraph only considers the negative alternatives available to each group. Each of those groups will also be looking at positive alternatives that might become available.

Hard Brexiteers will be looking not only at the risk of Remain/2nd referendum, but also at the potential for a Harder deal - whether that's achieved through No Deal, through renegotiation, by replacing May with a new PM etc.

Likewise, Tory Remainers will be looking not only at the risk of No Deal, but also at the potential for renegotiation, a second referendum etc.

 

Some might well be swayed by the risks that you mention and opt to compromise on May's deal. But others will think there's a serious prospect of getting something better by voting the deal down.

 

They also have to face their constituents in the future - in person and at the ballot box. To be fair, they'll probably be expecting hostility from some people regardless of the outcome. But they can probably expect years of hostility - and electoral defeat, in some cases - if they back a deal that will fulfil the expectations of almost nobody on either side....and, yes, I do accept that those expectations were/are completely unrealistic in many cases.

 

I cannot imagine that Parliament would withdraw its Article 50 notice to leave (if the ruling upholds this option) without calling either a referendum or an election. That would risk public outrage about lack of democracy even greater than is likely with a referendum, and would leave the public even more alienated from our democratic politics than they already are. It could also stimulate a rise in Far Right politics and could lead to street violence by a minority.

 

I can only agree with the disillusionment of your last 2 paragraphs, Kopf.

 

As a recent student, do you know whether May can simply declare the vote on her deal a confidence vote? Maybe I'm missing something, but I'm struggling to see why she thinks she has a chance of winning a vote on this deal, given the vehement rejection of various crucial groups of MPs.

 

I don't see why she can't make it a confidence matter, the FTPA doesn't change anything in that respect but there's 14 days to come to a resolution which would likely be a GE. She can't continue to govern if her deal is rejected so one way or another there will be a confidence vote. Can't see her winning but who knows.

 

Okay these are just personal musings of how I see it but I'll delve deeper into the thinking of the different groups for why I can't see much for any of them to cling on to a better alternative. Bear in mind that at this point the UK is probably going to need an A50 extension for a different deal unless some significant red lines are rubbed out, namely FoM. Although even then we would probably need an extension. That requires the EU27 to approve. France could be the main issue there. 

 

For Brexiteers, Assume for this one there is no confidence vote or it is won but then May goes

Deal rejected -> May goes to be replaced by Brexiteers -> seeks a hard Brexit/No deal, No deal more likely as they'll still have no idea on NI -> Imo, likely faces a confidence vote introduced by the opposition -> loses -> what happens next? I think the most viable next govt is a Corbyn led coalition that given Labour members, much of the PLP, and coalition partners would have to at least offer a second referendum that. Could be anything though.

How palatable is that to Con Brexiteers? I just don't think it is. They can't possibly think they could get a very hard Brexit through parliament. So there last option would be to let it run to No Deal but risk being thrown out before then and a Labour Brexit happening instead. Or Parliament decides to grow a backbone and somehow find a way to get the government to revoke A50 as I'm sure the ECJ will rule that we can. Of course they could get to the No Deal stage and it actually happen but do they really want it? Some probably do, some will bottle it. Essentially I think the longer it goes on, a deal is only going to get even less palatable for Brexiteers. Had they been constructive and pragmatic previously maybe they'd have got their way but it's too late for them now. 

 

For Con Remainers, do they think a different Con PM will give them a second ref? Well there's no chance. Do they think realistically think a better deal can be negotiated? Again there's little chance someone from their own party will be able to do that. So then are they willing to let a Labour-led government offer up an alternative? Well will the alternative be any better, unlikely again, and are they willing to let this current incarnation of the Labour Party run the country for the next 5 years? Well it's possible they might but comporting this deal to that, I doubt it. 

 

How many in the Labour Party are happy to sit tight in the hope they can get into a position to negotiate a different Brexit. How many just don't want to risk No Deal or a harder Brexit. Because as time ebbs away, their decision becomes even more binary Deal or No Deal.

 

And in saying that, the longer things go on, the less meaningful a second referendum becomes. It would be a huge constitutional crisis if the deal is rejected but then in a referendum the people say accept, so any second referendum then becomes Remain or No Deal unless you can get another Deal on the page. 

 

I just think it will pass, it will be tight but ultimately this is as good as it's likely to get for most.

 

 

Additionally, still very few actually know the full details. It might be worse, it might be better than thought so worth actually waiting for people to see it. It'd be nice if after seeing it, those that oppose could offer a coherent argument against but I won't hold my breath

Edited 14 November 2018 by Kopfkino

[yorkie1999]

6 hours ago, Nalis said:

No deal would ever get passed by a majority anyway as MPs are split into three camps; the hard brexiteers, the soft brexiteers and the ones who want to force a second referendum.

Which, it seems, is what the government actually want, but done in a way that makes it appear they have tried their best to come up with a deal, which has failed because they've left it too late , so the only options are to have a no deal brexit or a second referendum.

    Where did this deal come from in the first place? I thought the questions on the ballot paper were to remain a member of the Eu or leave the Eu, not leave and stay at the same time because the Irish don't like each other.

[Spudulike]

What do those idiots that stand outside Parliament shouting Stopppppp Bbbbbbrexit actually hope to gain ??

 

Perhaps they believe that people will be persuaded to agree with them if they shout loud enough. Thicko's.

[EnderbyFox]

 

[Countryfox]

7 hours ago, Nalis said:

No deal would ever get passed by a majority anyway as MPs are split into three camps; the hard brexiteers, the soft brexiteers and the ones who want to force a second referendum.

 

I know what you mean ...   I keep alternating between hard and soft ...    most mornings I’m hard.