treer 298 Posted 28 October 2019 Report Share Posted 28 October 2019 (edited) Results went pretty good over the weekend for our CL aim, seen our chance improve from 29% to near 38% Worth watching over the upcoming matches compared to other challengers Implied chance from betfair Chelsea 62.5% City 38.16% Spurs 35.1% Arsenal 33% United 21% Nice to see now favoured over the 2 North London Edited 28 October 2019 by treer 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Aus Fox 8,698 Posted 28 October 2019 Report Share Posted 28 October 2019 10 minutes ago, treer said: Results went pretty good over the weekend for our CL aim, seen our chance improve from 29% to near 38% Worth watching over the upcoming matches compared to other challengers Implied chance from betfair Chelsea 62.5% City 38.16% Spurs 35.1% Arsenal 33% United 21% Nice to see now favoured over the 2 North London What are these percentages based upon? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
WigstonWanderer 2,379 Posted 28 October 2019 Report Share Posted 28 October 2019 2 minutes ago, Aus Fox said: What are these percentages based upon? Presumably derived from betting odds Quote Link to post Share on other sites
turtmcfly 1,912 Posted 28 October 2019 Report Share Posted 28 October 2019 3 minutes ago, Aus Fox said: What are these percentages based upon? 'Implied chance from betfair' 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Nicolo Barella 2,770 Posted 28 October 2019 Report Share Posted 28 October 2019 13 minutes ago, treer said: Results went pretty good over the weekend for our CL aim, seen our chance improve from 29% to near 38% Worth watching over the upcoming matches compared to other challengers Implied chance from betfair Chelsea 62.5% City 38.16% Spurs 35.1% Arsenal 33% United 21% Nice to see now favoured over the 2 North London Was about to have a go at you for providing odds that have Man City with lower chances of finishing Top 4 than Chelsea, then I realised. I've been truly indoctrinated Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Nicolo Barella 2,770 Posted 28 October 2019 Report Share Posted 28 October 2019 Hopefully Chelsea drop off in the coming weeks facing Crystal Palace and Man City Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Cardiff_Fox 6,357 Posted 28 October 2019 Report Share Posted 28 October 2019 For info, the average over the past ten season for Top 4 has been 69 points and 60 points for 6th. To reach 69 points, we need less than two points a game as it stands. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Leicester_Loyal 5,445 Posted 28 October 2019 Report Share Posted 28 October 2019 1 hour ago, Cardiff_Fox said: For info, the average over the past ten season for Top 4 has been 69 points and 60 points for 6th. To reach 69 points, we need less than two points a game as it stands. I've accepted it, we're getting European football of some kind. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Popular Post murphy 6,812 Posted 28 October 2019 Popular Post Report Share Posted 28 October 2019 3 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said: I've accepted it, we're getting European football of some kind. I think we will, but probably Europa League. I worry that our great start has raised expectations so much that a lot of Leicester fans now seem to think that we will more likely get top four than not. Still a massive long shot for me. 7 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Woof 92 Posted 28 October 2019 Report Share Posted 28 October 2019 Fivethirtyeight have the chances of a top four finish as: Chelsea 68% City 46% Spurs 23% Arsenal 24% United 17% Looks promising Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Bazly 874 Posted 28 October 2019 Report Share Posted 28 October 2019 With Arsenal and Spurs spluttering along then it's looking like top 6 guaranteed. Top 4 looking better by the week as the bookies have cottoned onto the top four odds are now favouring, following Spurs and Arsenal dropping points this weekend, Man C, Liverpool, Chelsea and some team called Leicester City. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ealingfox 5,624 Posted 28 October 2019 Report Share Posted 28 October 2019 "Hello, is that Fate? I've got something here you should really come and have a look at" 1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Leicester_Loyal 5,445 Posted 28 October 2019 Report Share Posted 28 October 2019 25 minutes ago, murphy said: I think we will, but probably Europa League. I worry that our great start has raised expectations so much that a lot of Leicester fans now seem to think that we will more likely get top four than not. Still a massive long shot for me. Yeah I think we'll be 5th or 6th, which is still a great achievement. It would be nice to get CL football, purely to try and keep hold of all of our stars this summer. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
KrefelderFox666 1,226 Posted 28 October 2019 Report Share Posted 28 October 2019 (edited) My thought is this, Chelsea are improving with a young squad and will likely finish comfortbaly 3rd and maybe even push the Top 2 a bit. Arsenal and Spurs will be pushing for 4th and they have the quality. Can they be distracted enough and will their poor form continue all season? I think Spurs are more dangerous than Arsenal. We need to keep pushing and picking up points week in week out. Then I think we can challenge for 4th until the final few games. Realistically I think we will finish around 6th and that might be enough for Europa League. I cannot see many other teams push, Palace, Bournemouth, West Ham, Wolves etc etc are all just fairly average this year and Everton can go straight in the bin. There is no reason we should be below Man Utd and it would be really disappointing if we are. 6th is easily there for the taking if we continue picking up results here and there. For Top 4 we would need to beat all the mid table/lower teams every week. I am sure we will have some slip ups. Edited 28 October 2019 by KrefelderFox666 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Dan LCFC 11,916 Posted 28 October 2019 Report Share Posted 28 October 2019 I'm actually glad Arsenal drew rather than lost. If they'd lost at home to Palace from 2 up I think they'd have possibly sacked Emery. The longer Emery stays (importantly, still there for 9th November) the better. He's not good enough. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
foxinsocks 1,575 Posted 28 October 2019 Report Share Posted 28 October 2019 2 hours ago, WigstonWanderer said: Presumably derived from betting odds Betting odds ain't the truth... they reflect the willingness of fans to wager their own cash. In dec 15 our odds lengthened despite being top just coz liverpool appointed klopp... yet no one but a mad lcfc fan could have thought they had a chance Quote Link to post Share on other sites
coalvillefox 131 Posted 28 October 2019 Report Share Posted 28 October 2019 I've been compiling a few numbers for just such a thread so here we go. We currently have 20 points from 10 games (averaging 2 points per game) 28 games left at 2 points per game is a further 56 points, plus the 20 we have already gives us 76 points. In the last 7 seasons no team has finished above 5th with more than 75 points so based on that, 76 points would see us into at least 4th. Having said that, in the last 7 years, teams have finished 4th with as few as 66 points so thats our range, 66 - 76 points. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
AKCJ 15,300 Posted 28 October 2019 Report Share Posted 28 October 2019 4 hours ago, murphy said: I think we will, but probably Europa League. I worry that our great start has raised expectations so much that a lot of Leicester fans now seem to think that we will more likely get top four than not. Still a massive long shot for me. Yeah Chelsea look really good and obviously Man City and Liverpool are nailed on. I think that 4th spot is up for grabs with us, Spurs and Arsenal the likely candidates for it. It will click for Spurs eventually but we need to make sure we can hold Arsenal off. Games like next Sunday are absolutely massive. These are the sort that you can afford to lose if you're aiming for a top 8 finish but are must win if you think you're going to be in the top 4. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Fox92 11,803 Posted 28 October 2019 Report Share Posted 28 October 2019 One game at a time. We're still in October. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
foxinsocks 1,575 Posted 28 October 2019 Report Share Posted 28 October 2019 Look Chelsea are looking good... but so are we. I dont see anyone other than Chelsea or ourselves in 3rd and 4th.... so let's just out perform them Quote Link to post Share on other sites
foxinsocks 1,575 Posted 28 October 2019 Report Share Posted 28 October 2019 I expect us to get 80 points this year. We are playing better than earlier (as are Chelsea) so we should finish above 76pts Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Leeds Fox 1,550 Posted 28 October 2019 Report Share Posted 28 October 2019 7 hours ago, Aus Fox said: What are these percentages based upon? xG 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
treer 298 Posted 4 November 2019 Author Report Share Posted 4 November 2019 (edited) before weekend matches Chelsea 62.5% City 38.16% Spurs 35.1% Arsenal 33% United 21% after weekend matches Chelsea 68% City 50% Spurs 28% Arsenal 28% United 14% Pretty good over the weekend, Man CIty and Liverpool left it late, else could have started a Champions watch as well. Edited 4 November 2019 by treer 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Gerard 6,860 Posted 4 November 2019 Report Share Posted 4 November 2019 Average points per game since the start of 2018/19 season which is 49 games: Arsenal 1.78 Tottenham 1.71 Man Utd 1.61 Leicester 1.53 If we all continue that same average until the end of the season: Arsenal 65pts Leicester 64pts Tottenham 60pts Man Utd 57pts Conclusion: Arsenal game - MUST WIN Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Facecloth 13,369 Posted 4 November 2019 Report Share Posted 4 November 2019 12 minutes ago, Gerard said: Average points per game since the start of 2018/19 season which is 49 games: Arsenal 1.78 Tottenham 1.71 Man Utd 1.61 Leicester 1.53 If we all continue that same average until the end of the season: Arsenal 65pts Leicester 64pts Tottenham 60pts Man Utd 57pts Conclusion: Arsenal game - MUST WIN Think going back that far messes up the figures. Players have moved, managers have changed. I think the longest you can go back is the start of the most recent managers spell, which would be Rodgers, and even that's a push. Our current form is 2.3 points a game, that's all that really matters. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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