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treer

City top 4 watch

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Results went pretty good over the weekend for our CL aim, seen our chance improve from 29% to near 38%

Worth watching over the upcoming matches compared to other challengers

Implied chance from betfair

Chelsea 62.5%

City 38.16%

Spurs 35.1%

Arsenal 33%

United 21%

 

Nice to see now favoured over the 2 North London

 

Edited by treer
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10 minutes ago, treer said:

Results went pretty good over the weekend for our CL aim, seen our chance improve from 29% to near 38%

Worth watching over the upcoming matches compared to other challengers

Implied chance from betfair

Chelsea 62.5%

City 38.16%

Spurs 35.1%

Arsenal 33%

United 21%

 

Nice to see now favoured over the 2 North London

 

What are these percentages based upon?

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13 minutes ago, treer said:

Results went pretty good over the weekend for our CL aim, seen our chance improve from 29% to near 38%

Worth watching over the upcoming matches compared to other challengers

Implied chance from betfair

Chelsea 62.5%

City 38.16%

Spurs 35.1%

Arsenal 33%

United 21%

 

Nice to see now favoured over the 2 North London

 

Was about to have a go at you for providing odds that have Man City with lower chances of finishing Top 4 than Chelsea, then I realised. 

 

I've been truly indoctrinated

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With Arsenal and Spurs spluttering along then it's looking like top 6 guaranteed. Top 4 looking better by the week as the bookies have cottoned onto the top four odds are now favouring, following Spurs and Arsenal dropping points this weekend, Man C, Liverpool, Chelsea and some team called Leicester City.

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25 minutes ago, murphy said:

I think we will, but probably Europa League.  I worry that our great start has raised expectations so much that a lot of Leicester fans now seem to think that we will more likely get top four than not.

 

Still a massive long shot for me.

Yeah I think we'll be 5th or 6th, which is still a great achievement. It would be nice to get CL football, purely to try and keep hold of all of our stars this summer.

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My thought is this, Chelsea are improving with a young squad and will likely finish comfortbaly 3rd and maybe even push the Top 2 a bit.

 

Arsenal and Spurs will be pushing for 4th and they have the quality. Can they be distracted enough and will their poor form continue all season? I think Spurs are more dangerous than Arsenal.

 

We need to keep pushing and picking up points week in week out. Then I think we can challenge for 4th until the final few games. Realistically I think we will finish around 6th and that might be enough for Europa League.

 

I cannot see many other teams push, Palace, Bournemouth, West Ham, Wolves etc etc are all just fairly average this year and Everton can go straight in the bin. There is no reason we should be below Man Utd and it would be really disappointing if we are. 6th is easily there for the taking if we continue picking up results here and there. For Top 4 we would need to beat all the mid table/lower teams every week. I am sure we will have some slip ups.

Edited by KrefelderFox666
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I'm actually glad Arsenal drew rather than lost. If they'd lost at home to Palace from 2 up I think they'd have possibly sacked Emery. The longer Emery stays (importantly, still there for 9th November) the better. He's not good enough.

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2 hours ago, WigstonWanderer said:

Presumably derived from betting odds

Betting odds ain't the truth... they reflect the willingness of fans to wager their own cash.

In dec 15 our odds lengthened despite being top just coz liverpool appointed klopp... yet no one but a mad lcfc fan could have thought they had a chance

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I've been compiling a few numbers for just such a thread so here we go.

We currently have 20 points from 10 games (averaging 2 points per game)

28 games left at 2 points per game is a further 56 points, plus the 20 we have already gives us 76 points.

In the last 7 seasons no team has finished above 5th with more than 75 points so based on that, 76 points would see us into at least 4th.

Having said that, in the last 7 years, teams have finished 4th with as few as 66 points so thats our range, 66 - 76 points.

 

image.thumb.png.8a14910f112247b3c728a3078c647946.png

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4 hours ago, murphy said:

I think we will, but probably Europa League.  I worry that our great start has raised expectations so much that a lot of Leicester fans now seem to think that we will more likely get top four than not.

 

Still a massive long shot for me.

Yeah Chelsea look really good and obviously Man City and Liverpool are nailed on.

 

I think that 4th spot is up for grabs with us, Spurs and Arsenal the likely candidates for it. It will click for Spurs eventually but we need to make sure we can hold Arsenal off.

 

Games like next Sunday are absolutely massive. These are the sort that you can afford to lose if you're aiming for a top 8 finish but are must win if you think you're going to be in the top 4.

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before weekend matches

Chelsea 62.5%

City 38.16%

Spurs 35.1%

Arsenal 33%

United 21%

 

after weekend matches

Chelsea 68%

City 50%

Spurs 28%

Arsenal 28%

United 14%

 

Pretty good over the weekend, Man CIty and Liverpool left it late, else could have started a Champions watch as well.

Edited by treer
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Average points per game since the start of 2018/19 season which is 49 games:

 

Arsenal 1.78

Tottenham 1.71

Man Utd 1.61

Leicester 1.53

 

If we all continue that same average until the end of the season:

 

Arsenal 65pts

Leicester 64pts

Tottenham 60pts

Man Utd 57pts

 

Conclusion: Arsenal game - MUST WIN

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12 minutes ago, Gerard said:

Average points per game since the start of 2018/19 season which is 49 games:

 

Arsenal 1.78

Tottenham 1.71

Man Utd 1.61

Leicester 1.53

 

If we all continue that same average until the end of the season:

 

Arsenal 65pts

Leicester 64pts

Tottenham 60pts

Man Utd 57pts

 

Conclusion: Arsenal game - MUST WIN

Think going back that far messes up the figures. Players have moved, managers have changed. I think the longest you can go back is the start of the most recent managers spell, which would be Rodgers, and even that's a push. Our current form is 2.3 points a game, that's all that really matters.

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