Corona Virus

[WigstonWanderer]

4 hours ago, brucey said:

Part of the problem is that the jug was already 80% full before all this started, and we’re now trying to maintain it at a constant level of 99% full, while controlling the pouring speed via a video feed on a 1 week delay. It isn’t possible.

 

If we mess up in our calculations and spill the whole bucket on the ground we won’t know about it for a week.
 

Whereas if we start off with pouring as slowly as possible (strong restrictions) we can then gradually start pouring more (relaxing those restrictions) after we get an idea of how much the jug can actually hold (NHS ability to cope).

 

We’re doing it backwards.

 

 

 

Also the UK jug us rather smaller than other advanced economies by the sounds of it, including Italy.

[nnfox]

4 hours ago, brucey said:

Part of the problem is that the jug was already 80% full before all this started, and we’re now trying to maintain it at a constant level of 99% full, while controlling the pouring speed via a video feed on a 1 week delay. It isn’t possible.

 

If we mess up in our calculations and spill the whole bucket on the ground we won’t know about it for a week.
 

Whereas if we start off with pouring as slowly as possible (strong restrictions) we can then gradually start pouring more (relaxing those restrictions) after we get an idea of how much the jug can actually hold (NHS ability to cope).

 

We’re doing it backwards.

 

 

 

Some people are never happy.  This video was a simple, effective and intelligent explanation of the government's plan.  But no. They guy didn't have enough water in the jug so the plan is still flawed.

 

How about the empty jug represents the NHS capacity for dealing with Covid-19?

 

Time alone will tell whether this has been a good plan or not.  Wishing it were different isn't going to change the approach.

 

Without doubt, the government has much better access to data than the general public.  They'll know the state of the NHS and the capacity to deal with the problem today, tomorrow and next week.  They'll have all sorts of data relating to suspected cases by region. We have our top minds working on this and figuring out how to minimise deaths in the long term.

 

2020 is going to be a long and difficult year.  It isn't going to go away anytime soon. A balanced and patient plan with an eye on the bigger picture is what is required, not knee-jerk reactions because another country does something differently.

 

Stay calm, wash your hands, be sensible. And if you want to hide out in your pasta and bog roll bunker then that is absolutely fine too.  Good luck.

 

[nnfox]

6 hours ago, Guesty said:

This is a good thing; will stop unfounded speculation - or at least lessen it.

 

Hoping the journalists asking questions will be more scientific based and less political.

This is good. This has been my personal biggest criticism of the government response so far.

 

As for hoping journalists looking to report facts? I'm afraid that might be a stretch too far.  

 

I would urge as many people as possible to watch these daily updates and then form their own opinions rather than reading the headlines from journalists looking for the next big story. 

[st albans fox]

7 hours ago, Fktf said:

The whole herd immunity thing is a bit of a red herring in this debate. It doesn't really matter how the govt or cso dress up their current approach in comms. The key point is a lot of scientists are seriously questioning whether we a following a good strategy, regardless of what the rationale behind it is. 

just like solicitors or accountants, a room of scientists will rarely agree on anything, especially if the answer is unknown ! 
 

 

[MC Prussian]

The question remains: Where did this virus come from, how did it develop, how did it come about?

I wonder whether it truly is a whim of nature or whether a developed nation has something to do with it...

[leicsmac]

1 minute ago, MC Prussian said:

The question remains: Where did this virus come from, how did it develop, how did it come about?

I wonder whether it truly is a whim of nature or whether a developed nation has something to do with it...

If that's the case and it was released deliberately, then the question becomes that classic, "cui bono" - who gains? Right now, however, every nation state (saying nothing of individuals within those nation states) seems to be losing rather than gaining.

 

Of course, if it was cooked up somewhere it may have gotten out as a dreadful accident too. In which case...well, I doubt we'll ever know conclusively who was responsible because that's the kind of discovery that could destroy practically any nation.

[MC Prussian]

13 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

If that's the case and it was released deliberately, then the question becomes that classic, "cui bono" - who gains? Right now, however, every nation state (saying nothing of individuals within those nation states) seems to be losing rather than gaining.

 

Of course, if it was cooked up somewhere it may have gotten out as a dreadful accident too. In which case...well, I doubt we'll ever know conclusively who was responsible because that's the kind of discovery that could destroy practically any nation.

China now claim the virus was brought to Wuhan province by Americans last autumn.

https://qz.com/1817736/china-fuels-coronavirus-conspiracy-theory-blaming-us-army/

[st albans fox]

26 minutes ago, MC Prussian said:

The question remains: Where did this virus come from, how did it develop, how did it come about?

I wonder whether it truly is a whim of nature or whether a developed nation has something to do with it...

A question like that needs it’s own thread as it will attract conspiracy theories galore....... nothing provable either way 

 

I hate CT’s ..... they’re so pointless ......

[SpacedX]

27 minutes ago, MC Prussian said:

The question remains: Where did this virus come from, how did it develop, how did it come about?

Nothing whatsoever to do an unhygienic livestock wet market directly in the area of the initial outbreak of a zoonotick disease then, which sells live bats - a source of four previous pandemics - alongside intermediary hosts such as pigs, civets, and pangolins. 

 

 

33 minutes ago, MC Prussian said:

I wonder whether it truly is a whim of nature 

As unsettling as it may seem - as much as you search for order and reason, nature is chaotic and indifferent to mankind, it quite literally doesn't give a rats arse about you or I. Such rapidly mutating global viral pandemics are to be expected. They will continue to emerge and evolve as they always have done. 

[String fellow]

I thought that the main finger of blame was pointed towards China's markets, which regrettably sell live wild animals. Bats, palm civets, and pangolins are mentioned in the medical journals as carrying a form of the virus, and are therefore possible links in the transmission chain up to humans.     

[leicsmac]

24 minutes ago, MC Prussian said:

China now claim the virus was brought to Wuhan province by Americans last autumn.

https://qz.com/1817736/china-fuels-coronavirus-conspiracy-theory-blaming-us-army/

I'm sure they would say that for the sake of sticking it to the American boogeyman, but it doesn't make any logical sense for the reasons above.

 

 

7 minutes ago, Line-X said:

 

 

 

As unsettling as it may seem - as much as you search for order and reason, nature is chaotic and indifferent to mankind, it quite literally doesn't give a rats arse about you or I. Such rapidly mutating global viral pandemics are to be expected. They will continue to emerge and evolve as they always have done. 

Very much this, especially the indifferent part. That's why tech advances, for all the risks they themselves carry, are so important for the long term survival of civilisation.

[SpacedX]

13 minutes ago, String fellow said:

I thought that the main finger of blame was pointed towards China's markets, which regrettably sell live wild animals. Bats, palm civets, and pangolins are mentioned in the medical journals as carrying a form of the virus, and are therefore possible links in the transmission chain up to humans.     

Try explaining that to the online conspiratorially addled mindset. 

[Innovindil]

25 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

I hate CT’s ..... they’re so pointless ......

At least some of the modern ones are entertaining. "back in the day" I'd imagine they were all about witches or some nonsense 

[Strokes]

26 minutes ago, Innovindil said:

At least some of the modern ones are entertaining. "back in the day" I'd imagine they were all about witches or some nonsense 

That’s just the sort of thing a witch would say 🤔

[CosbehFox]

Personally I am a bit worried - I feel as though the strategy holds no acknowledgment of what's occurring in continental Europe. Nearly 400 deaths in one day across Italy is chilling. And just like what's happening in the US, I have no trust that the British public can hold an isolation tactic. 

 

It's hard to motivate yourself for work etc when you can't help but feel this work/my industry will be on virtual lockdown within a week. 

[filbertway]

5 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

Personally I am a bit worried - I feel as though the strategy holds no acknowledgment of what's occurring in continental Europe. Nearly 400 deaths in one day across Italy is chilling. And just like what's happening in the US, I have no trust that the British public can hold an isolation tactic. 

 

It's hard to motivate yourself for work etc when you can't help but feel this work/my industry will be on virtual lockdown within a week. 

It's interesting isn't it. I'm starting to think that a lock down, especially if it ends up in company's going out of business and hundreds of thousands of jobs lost, will end up leaving a large portion of the country in a state of depression. Which could be far more devastating long term impact on the country.

 

I'd hate to be one of the decision makers at the minute. Whatever choice you make is likely to have fairly serious consequences and the public and media will be looking to batter you, whatever decision you make.

[CosbehFox]

Just now, filbertway said:

It's interesting isn't it. I'm starting to think that a lock down, especially if it ends up in company's going out of business and hundreds of thousands of jobs lost, will end up leaving a large portion of the country in a state of depression. Which could be far more devastating long term impact on the country.

 

I'd hate to be one of the decision makers at the minute. Whatever choice you make is likely to have fairly serious consequences and the public and media will be looking to batter you, whatever decision you make.

What will be further interesting is when will things in Italy turn for the better - if their public begins to see results, they will be happy to hold themselves in isolation for longer. At the moment, in pure basic terms it doesn't appear to work. And stories of medical staff dying simply overwhelmed is very sad too. 

 

I just can't help but there's not enough worldwide collaboration - surely you'd be consulting the likes of South Korea now - even if just for their test results data. There was a graph I seen what suggested people between 20 -29 tested at nearly 70% but their symptoms were largely minimal. 

 

 

[Dahnsouff]

3 minutes ago, filbertway said:

It's interesting isn't it. I'm starting to think that a lock down, especially if it ends up in company's going out of business and hundreds of thousands of jobs lost, will end up leaving a large portion of the country in a state of depression. Which could be far more devastating long term impact on the country.

 

I'd hate to be one of the decision makers at the minute. Whatever choice you make is likely to have fairly serious consequences and the public and media will be looking to batter you, whatever decision you make.

Summed up nicely. 

You decide to lock down, you will be lambasted for reacting too soon and leaving us open for worse when the virus returns and causing mental health issues due to isolation.

You decide to not lock down and hope to build some immunity, you will be lambasted for lack of care.

We seem to be behind the rest of Europe, so imagine we will get locked down soon.

[Countryfox]

My stars in the paper today say something about a trip being cancelled ...   who writes this sh1t !!!??
 

I think I could earn a few bob doing it  ...     “I foresee a problem arising with regard to wiping your arse” ....   money for old fookin rope.

[davieG]

[Desabafar]

I am glad to see the government is doing daily media conferences but I think they need to change strategy now towards full lockdown ASAP. I was behind the government last week but they've lost control over the weekend and the public is panicking and I'm getting more worried they are way off the mark as the rest of Europe shuts down. I think these measures would help show some leadership now. I think they underestimate what the public will tolerate

[Blarmy]

18 minutes ago, davieG said:

Or, the one who stayed away prevented the others from fulfilling their only purpose in life. 

[Bayfox]

My fear with lockdown is, who pays the Bill's, what can be put in place to solve those issues. Who picks up the tab. I know most will be in the same boat, 

 

I can't afford time off work being self employed and my savings won't go far, could survive a few weeks yes but not months on end.

 

My wife has spent all last week making sure her team at work can work remotely, but as they need to do site visits etc as part of job and if no one is at work, building or submitting planning application's it actually seems a little waste of resources to be honest.

 

Be interesting to see once we come out the other side how the face of the world has changed, industry's such as tourism may well not survive without bailouts the knock on effects of this could be life changing for many. Even if lucky enough to avoid the virus.

 

Madness that in 2020 something like this can cause world wide issues.

 

It is like living some film script.

 

Have to say I'm very much in the carry on and take the risk category, but some direction from the government would be nice.

 

 

[SpacedX]

 

[Leicester_Loyal]

35 minutes ago, Desabafar said:

I am glad to see the government is doing daily media conferences but I think they need to change strategy now towards full lockdown ASAP. I was behind the government last week but they've lost control over the weekend and the public is panicking and I'm getting more worried they are way off the mark as the rest of Europe shuts down. I think these measures would help show some leadership now. I think they underestimate what the public will tolerate

How exactly has the Government 'lost control over the weekend'?

 

Go into lockdown yourself if you truly believe this is the right thing to do, don't wait for the Government to tell you.