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Leicester_Loyal

The Politics Thread 2020

By Leicester_Loyal, in General Chat

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LiberalFox

LiberalFox

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

You make some good points: the 5-year strategy, image as local campaigners v. central govt establishment, successful Tory "coalition of chaos" campaign.

I certainly wouldn't be so simplistic as to claim that it was all down to punishment for austerity or supporting the Tories - and the points you've made were part of the explanation.

 

But...

- The LD vote fell from 23% to 7.9%, losing 2/3 of those who voted for them in 2010

- The Lab vote increased overall, despite being an establishment party & leading Miliband's "coalition of chaos" (& losing lots of votes to SNP & UKIP)

- The Green vote rocketed, despite being potential members of the "coalition of chaos"

 

Where did those lost 2/3 of 2010 LD voters go? Only some went to the Tories, whose vote rose just 0.7% (albeit that this understates the LD votes gained, as the Tories lost plenty to UKIP).

Labour lost stacks of votes to the SNP and no small number to UKIP, yet its vote was up overall.....where did all its extra votes come from?

 

Re. LD marginal seats: I had a look at 3 random seats that they lost to the Tories - Cornwall North, Devon North & Twickenham.

In those 3 marginals, the LDs lost a 16-18% vote share, Labour gained votes and the Greens gained 3-4%. In Twickenham, Labour's vote gain was bigger than Cable's margin of defeat.

Personally, I'd have voted LD if I'd been living there, but disillusionment with LD "support" for Tory austerity is surely part of the explanation. 

 

Maybe, with hindsight, the LDs would've done better if they'd fought austerity more or ensured that they got into some public rows with the Tories in those last 2 years, by rejecting Tory austerity?

I have a keen interest in politics and didn't notice the LDs fighting their corner on that, so it's unsurprising if a lot of anti-Tory voters saw them as going along with Tory policy, however much they might have argued behind the scenes.

Well the strategy clearly didn't work. You can't oppose austerity and be in coalition with the Tories. But I do think being an opposition party under successive New Labour governments and the Iraq war had left the party with a lot of unstable left wing protest voters. I don't know what policies the Lib Dems were trying to differentiate on because I was quite disillusioned with them myself and intended to vote Labour right up until the election but ended up voting Lib Dem anyway because I just found Milliband weak and didn't feel Labour did anything to actually win my vote. If I actually lived in a marginal I would have backed the party most likely to beat the Conservatives.  

 

The Eastleigh by-election (2013) was quite important as it was taken as an indication that the party losses would be moderate in 2015 and secured Nick Clegg's position. 

 

Personally I just think the party HQ gambled on winning a bunch of votes that didn't actually exist. They should have listened more to people on the ground. On the other hand a lot of ex Lib Dem seats were always going to be a headache because of support in those areas for Brexit. 

 

 

 

 

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Dunge

Dunge

Posted
Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, LiberalFox said:

Well the strategy clearly didn't work. You can't oppose austerity and be in coalition with the Tories. But I do think being an opposition party under successive New Labour governments and the Iraq war had left the party with a lot of unstable left wing protest voters. I don't know what policies the Lib Dems were trying to differentiate on because I was quite disillusioned with them myself and intended to vote Labour right up until the election but ended up voting Lib Dem anyway because I just found Milliband weak and didn't feel Labour did anything to actually win my vote. If I actually lived in a marginal I would have backed the party most likely to beat the Conservatives.  

 

The Eastleigh by-election (2013) was quite important as it was taken as an indication that the party losses would be moderate in 2015 and secured Nick Clegg's position. 

 

Personally I just think the party HQ gambled on winning a bunch of votes that didn't actually exist. They should have listened more to people on the ground. On the other hand a lot of ex Lib Dem seats were always going to be a headache because of support in those areas for Brexit. 

 

 

 

 

Funnily enough, I thought in 2015 that the Lib Dems had proven themselves as a party of sensible governance and so I voted for them - switching from the Tories 5 years previously. I quite liked the Conservative/Lib Dem coalition, I felt it hit the sweet spot for me politically. Unfortunately it seems not many people agreed with me and their vote plummeted.

 

Whenever I’ve looked at the Lib Dems since, it always comes across quite clearly that I can never be forgiven for voting Brexit. My take on them these days is that they’ve returned to a state of not being willing to make the tough decisions.

Edited by Dunge
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Finnaldo

Finnaldo

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

 

 

12 hours ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

Tories on the slide! Green Party surge!

 

 

And more changes afoot in Scotland.....

 

 

 

1 hour ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

Cover your eyes, Sir Kieth

 

 


Minus the Delta poll, I’m surprised the vaccine bounce is already falling off. Expect it will go back up once reopening properly starts in April/May. 


Hangover from the NHS payrise/Policing Bill issues? 

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RoboFox

RoboFox

Posted
Posted (edited)
38 minutes ago, Mike Oxlong said:

I’m surprised anyone gives a shit about these polls at the moment 

One person on here clearly cares a lot more than others. 

 

Edited by RoboFox
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UpTheLeagueFox

UpTheLeagueFox

Posted
Posted
55 minutes ago, Mike Oxlong said:

I’m surprised anyone gives a shit about these polls at the moment 

 

17 minutes ago, RoboFox said:

One person on here clearly cares a lot more than others. 

I love the debate it can create :thumbup:

I'm sure others would enjoy them more if Kieth was 20 points ahead :thumbup:

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Dahnsouff

Dahnsouff

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, RoboFox said:

One person on here clearly cares a lot more than others. 

 

So if the polls were reversed it would be magnanimously different?  

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RoboFox

RoboFox

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Dahnsouff said:

So if the polls were reversed it would be magnanimously different?  

Would @UpTheLeagueFox be sharing so many polls showing a Labour dominance of the polls over his favoured Conservatives to a largely left-leaning user base on this forum?

 

You'd have to ask him.

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Dahnsouff

Dahnsouff

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, RoboFox said:

Would @UpTheLeagueFox be sharing so many polls showing a Labour dominance of the polls over his favoured Conservatives to a largely left-leaning user base on this forum?

 

You'd have to ask him.

I would hazard a guess that blue Geoff may not. lol
 

But I do hope you are not suggesting that forum members post should tend to a red flavour by default!

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RoboFox

RoboFox

Posted
Posted

I don't think anyone's surprised by Boris' behaviour, TBH. We all knew what was going on there. He's a slimy, lying, repugnant cvnt.

 

What is more serious is there was some not-at-all-typical Tory nepotism going on in the shape of £126,000 given to her tax payer grants and three official trips. 

 

Did he act with honesty and integrity? Was there a conflict of interest? Did he give her preferential treatment? And should the affair have been declared? 

 

The Greater London Authority should be nailing him for this (and they have the legal power to summon him) - this private matter has now become one of public interest. 

 

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RoboFox

RoboFox

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Voll Blau said:

I would say it's a bit weird that barely anyone's up in arms over this Arcuri stuff, but I guess it's not really.

 

Are Boris hahaha what a player. His hair is funny.

It's absolutely the most important political story at the moment.

 

But nah fvckin ledge m8 bozza 1 of da ladz


 

Edited by RoboFox
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Bellend Sebastian

Bellend Sebastian

Posted
Posted

There's a lot of great stuff in this Marina Hyde piece, as usual...

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/30/barnard-castle-johnson-covid-vaccines-irony-shame

 

...but the following quote is cutting and poignant at the same time, and for me a pretty good summary of where we are:

 

"It is impossible to read Failures of State, the frequently jaw-dropping book by Sunday Times journalists Jonathan Calvert and George Arbuthnott, and not conclude that the British people deserved far, far better from the government. Yet its deeply healthy approval ratings suggest that people didn’t think they did. That is a tragedy in its own way, though not for the Johnson administration. It is, of course, hugely encouraging news for a cabinet of this calibre that people expect to be governed badly – indeed, are taken to approve of it."

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