The Politics Thread 2020

[BenTheFox]

10 hours ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

Channel 4 have done some polling on the 'Red Wall' seats. 

There are 15 tweets in the thread, good news and bad news for both parties.

 

 

I don't really know what Labour's best course of action is in terms of rebuilding the red wall. Many seats in the midlands and Northern England voted overwhelmingly in favour of Brexit and as a result Labour's stance (or lack of) on Brexit at the last general election played a significant part in losing the heartlands. A number of people lent the Tories their vote because of Brexit so you'd think that Boris Johnson and co will have their work cut out trying to keep those votes. However, this was clearly not the only issue for Labour. Corbyn came with a lot of baggage and I'm sure a lot of people, myself included felt that their manifesto, which was essentially a long wishlist didn't seem credible. 

 

I initially felt that Keir Starmer was a safe choice as I felt that a lot of undecided voters who lean more towards the centre are more likely to vote for him than Corbyn and those votes are undoubtedly important.  However, the more I think about it the less convinced I am that a millionaire remainer based in London is the right person to connect with the Labour heartlands. 

[Strokes]

22 minutes ago, BenTheFox said:

I don't really know what Labour's best course of action is in terms of rebuilding the red wall. Many seats in the midlands and Northern England voted overwhelmingly in favour of Brexit and as a result Labour's stance (or lack of) on Brexit at the last general election played a significant part in losing the heartlands. A number of people lent the Tories their vote because of Brexit so you'd think that Boris Johnson and co will have their work cut out trying to keep those votes. However, this was clearly not the only issue for Labour. Corbyn came with a lot of baggage and I'm sure a lot of people, myself included felt that their manifesto, which was essentially a long wishlist didn't seem credible. 

 

I initially felt that Keir Starmer was a safe choice as I felt that a lot of undecided voters who lean more towards the centre are more likely to vote for him than Corbyn and those votes are undoubtedly important.  However, the more I think about it the less convinced I am that a millionaire remainer based in London is the right person to connect with the Labour heartlands. 

Maybe instead of deciding what’s best for the people they want to represent, they should listen to them and try to gain a real understanding. It’s easy to pigeonhole the whole brexit voting masses as thick racists but don’t expect them to go and vote for you if you do.

[Alf Bentley]

11 hours ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

Channel 4 have done some polling on the 'Red Wall' seats. 

There are 15 tweets in the thread, good news and bad news for both parties.

 

 

 

That poll tells us a lot more than most  - especially in combination with the previous Red Wall poll. Like the national polls, it suggests that Labour can expect to do very badly in May (unless some govt crisis occurs in the meantime).

 

But it mainly shows how volatile voters' loyalties are. According to the Nov 2020 poll, within a year of taking power the Tories were set to lose most of their Red Wall gains. Yet, 4 months later they're set to hold most of them.

Whatever people tell pollsters, that must mainly be because in November the outlook was bleak due to Covid and the Govt response was perceived to have been shambolic.

Now, the outlook seems much brighter, people are looking forward to lockdown ending and the Govt is getting credit for the successful vaccination programme.

 

The good news for the Tories is that voters seem to have already forgotten the shambolic Covid response - and I doubt that much notice will be taken of negative findings in any investigation, which the Govt will probably kick into the long grass, anyway. The bad news for them is that appreciation of vaccine success may prove just as short-lived.

 

So, beyond May (likely good for Tories, bad for Labour & other parties except SNP), it's all to play for electorally. If the economy & employment are OK, public services aren't slashed & public money is injected into "pork barrel" Red Wall projects, the Tories could be set for another big win in 2024. But, given short voter attention spans, if anything goes wrong with that - and it's a tough ask - then allegiances could shift as quickly as they did last year and this year.

 

On Starmer, I'm not sure he could have avoided this current perception of a lack of clarity and leadership. Despite what poll respondents say, I reckon he'd have been judged even more negatively if he'd attacked the Govt more over Covid response - the "playing party politics" negative rating would have been through the roof. I also doubt it would have achieved anything if he'd unveiled exciting new plans in other policy areas....that would have come across weird in the middle of a pandemic when little else mattered.

 

Assuming we continue to emerge OK from pandemic and lockdown, now is his opportunity to start revealing his vision and priorities - and he might get a hearing now (especially if anything goes wrong with the economy, Brexit, public services etc.).

 

I voted "Nandy 1, Starmer 2" in the leadership ballot partly because Starmer seemed highly competent but lacking in charisma. Nandy came across as almost as competent but more natural and likelier to get a positive response from voters. I'm quite happy with how Starmer has performed - providing he starts presenting a few visionary ideas soon. It would help if he came across as more interesting, but a good leader doesn't always need to be charismatic (Attlee had a dull persona, by all accounts). It helps if a few other leading party figures have a bit more charisma - and I'd say that Labour has a few of them, some of them surprisingly so: Nandy, Miliband, Lammy, Phillips. That might be an argument for moving Anneliese Dodds from Shadow Chancellor, as she's rather like "Kieth" so far - highly competent but rather dull. All still to play for in 2024, though I'm expecting a 0-5 home defeat in May!  

 

Edited 31 March 2021 by Alf Bentley

[BenTheFox]

3 minutes ago, Strokes said:

Maybe instead of deciding what’s best for the people they want to represent, they should listen to them and try to gain a real understanding. It’s easy to pigeonhole the whole brexit voting masses as thick racists but don’t expect them to go and vote for you if you do.

Oh that definitely played a big part in it and what's bad is that a lot of people still don't realise it. 

[Strokes]

42 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

That poll tells us a lot more than most  - especially in combination with the previous Red Wall poll. Like the national polls, it suggests that Labour can expect to do very badly in May (unless some govt crisis occurs in the meantime).

 

But it mainly shows how volatile voters' loyalties are. According to the Nov 2020 poll, within a year of taking power the Tories were set to lose most of their Red Wall gains. Yet, 4 months later they're set to hold most of them.

Whatever people tell pollsters, that must mainly be because in November the outlook was bleak due to Covid and the Govt response was perceived to have been shambolic.

Now, the outlook seems much brighter, people are looking forward to lockdown ending and the Govt is getting credit for the successful vaccination programme.

 

The good news for the Tories is that voters seem to have already forgotten the shambolic Covid response - and I doubt that much notice will be taken of negative findings in any investigation, which the Govt will probably kick into the long grass, anyway. The bad news for them is that appreciation of vaccine success may prove just as short-lived.

 

So, beyond May (likely good for Tories, bad for Labour & other parties except SNP), it's all to play for electorally. If the economy & employment are OK, public services aren't slashed & public money is injected into "pork barrel" Red Wall projects, the Tories could be set for another big win in 2024. But, given short voter attention spans, if anything goes wrong with that - and it's a tough ask - then allegiances could shift as quickly as they did last year and this year.

 

On Starmer, I'm not sure he could have avoided this current perception of a lack of clarity and leadership. Despite what poll respondents say, I reckon he'd have been judged even more negatively if he'd attacked the Govt more over Covid response - the "playing party politics" negative rating would have been through the roof. I also doubt it would have achieved anything if he'd unveiled exciting new plans in other policy areas....that would have come across weird in the middle of a pandemic when little else mattered.

 

Assuming we continue to emerge OK from pandemic and lockdown, now is his opportunity to start revealing his vision and priorities - and he might get a hearing now (especially if anything goes wrong with the economy, Brexit, public services etc.).

 

I voted "Nandy 1, Starmer 2" in the leadership ballot partly because Starmer seemed highly competent but lacking in charisma. Nandy came across as almost as competent but more natural and likelier to get a positive response from voters. I'm quite happy with how Starmer has performed - providing he starts presenting a few visionary ideas soon. It would help if he came across as more interesting, but a good leader doesn't always need to be charismatic (Attlee had a dull persona, by all accounts). It helps if a few other leading party figures have a bit more charisma - and I'd say that Labour has a few of them, some of them surprisingly so: Nandy, Miliband, Lammy, Phillips. That might be an argument for moving Anneliese Dodds from Shadow Chancellor, as she's rather like "Kieth" so far - highly competent but rather dull. All still to play for in 2024, though I'm expecting a 0-5 home defeat in May!  

 

Forgotten? Most likely forgiven.

 

I agree that I think Starmer on a whole has performed quite well, my opinion of him has certainly improved.

I just hope he has the power to continue the long game into building confidence, because although the maniacs have been banished, the door they are locked behind isn’t particularly secure. If the party move back towards corbynism within one term, I don’t think they will be taken seriously for a long time again.

[leicsmac]

1 hour ago, Strokes said:

Maybe instead of deciding what’s best for the people they want to represent, they should listen to them and try to gain a real understanding. It’s easy to pigeonhole the whole brexit voting masses as thick racists but don’t expect them to go and vote for you if you do.

I'm genuinely curious to know what the concerns regarding Brexit were apart from immigration that would be better addressed by a Tory government than a Labour one in the eyes of a northern voter.

 

It's not like either party has done much for the "Red Wall" area economically in recent times.

[bovril]

The entire trajectory of the UK has changed massively in the last five years, to the point where the country itself might split up. Mostly because the Conservatives were afraid of losing a minority of the electorate to UKIP because they were worried about Eastern Europeans living next door.

 

And still they think they're being ignored. 

[Alf Bentley]

28 minutes ago, Strokes said:

Forgotten? Most likely forgiven.

 

I agree that I think Starmer on a whole has performed quite well, my opinion of him has certainly improved.

I just hope he has the power to continue the long game into building confidence, because although the maniacs have been banished, the door they are locked behind isn’t particularly secure. If the party move back towards corbynism within one term, I don’t think they will be taken seriously for a long time again.

 

Perhaps a mixture of "forgotten" and "forgiven"? People might partly be thinking "unprecedent crisis, not sure anyone else could've done better". But a few months back Johnson was getting plenty of blame, as the Nov 2020 poll suggests.

Maybe memories of the blameworthy shambles have faded a bit when set against the successful vaccination rollout and optimism re. lockdown ending? That rosy goodwill might dissipate if lots of jobs are lost or Sunak tightens the purse strings much more.

 

I'm sure if/when Labour does badly in the May elections, that will encourage some carping from the "maniacs" - hopefully just hot air from a minority without real power. However, that probably makes it all the more important that Starmer does start presenting some appealing ideas for a Lab Govt in the coming months, preferably at least some that appeal to the Left while not putting off moderates/swing voters (perfectly possible - Green New Deal, economic investment in regions/small business, National Care Service linked to NHS, crackdown on corporate tax avoidance, restore nurses' bursaries to recruit more etc.). Wouldn't want perceived drift lead to the Corbynistas taking charge of the NEC or annual conference. 

[Jon the Hat]

28 minutes ago, bovril said:

The entire trajectory of the UK has changed massively in the last five years, to the point where the country itself might split up. Mostly because the Conservatives were afraid of losing a minority of the electorate to UKIP because they were worried about Eastern Europeans living next door.

 

And still they think they're being ignored. 

In good news, if you and your ilk still believe a word of this nonsense we may never have a Labour Government again!  Result!!

[RoboFox]

The four steps to post-Brexit Tory dominance.

 

1. Keep the working classes suppressed

2. Limit access to education for the countries' poorest

3. Convince them via the right-wing media that they share a common enemy

4. Profit.

 

And now the policing bill. GDP is projected to decrease by up to 6% due to not being part of the EEA. A sad preventative measure in preparation for the inevitable shit storm that will follow once the population realises the knock-on effect this will have on our quality of life.

 

[bovril]

Just now, Jon the Hat said:

In good news, if you and your ilk still believe a word of this nonsense we may never have a Labour Government again!  Result!!

Nigel Farage put out an advert in the national press explaining why he was worried about Romanians moving next door. Then the PM promised a referendum on EU membership because the government were worried about losing a minority of voters to UKIP. That actually happened, it's not nonsense. 

[leicsmac]

But on the topic of other Brexit consequences:

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-56587811

[Jon the Hat]

19 minutes ago, bovril said:

Nigel Farage put out an advert in the national press explaining why he was worried about Romanians moving next door. Then the PM promised a referendum on EU membership because the government were worried about losing a minority of voters to UKIP. That actually happened, it's not nonsense. 

You have a quote for that?  A policy statement?  

 

If I recall the government put itself in a corner by going to negotiate some concessions with the EU (which they expected to get) and the EU flat out refused to give an inch.  We might never had had a referendum had Cameron better understood the EU position in advance, or the EU conceded on a few points.  The Conservatives have been split over Europe for a generation, as it seems have the country.  To point at Farage and Conservative infighting for everything that follows is overly simplistic.

[Jon the Hat]

14 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

But on the topic of other Brexit consequences:

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-56587811

"Man pitches for funding" would be a better headline perhaps.  All conjecture, and he is lobbying against someone he has heard a rumour about by the sounds of it.  As ever the proof is in the final budgets I guess.

[Strokes]

1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

I'm genuinely curious to know what the concerns regarding Brexit were apart from immigration that would be better addressed by a Tory government than a Labour one in the eyes of a northern voter.

 

It's not like either party has done much for the "Red Wall" area economically in recent times.

Being concerned about immigration doesn’t necessarily make you racist for a start.

Thats an immediate trap.

There are plenty of reasons to be concerned that do not mean you hate the people that are coming in.

When businesses employ ready made employees from abroad, they are skipping the need to train employees, thus making it harder for anyone starting out in employment as there are fewer apprenticeships etc.

Also Labour wanted to be in customs Union, which would have given the ECJ overruling power and plenty of people want to feel more in control, even if it’s futile.

[Strokes]

1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Perhaps a mixture of "forgotten" and "forgiven"? People might partly be thinking "unprecedent crisis, not sure anyone else could've done better". But a few months back Johnson was getting plenty of blame, as the Nov 2020 poll suggests.

Maybe memories of the blameworthy shambles have faded a bit when set against the successful vaccination rollout and optimism re. lockdown ending? That rosy goodwill might dissipate if lots of jobs are lost or Sunak tightens the purse strings much more.

 

I'm sure if/when Labour does badly in the May elections, that will encourage some carping from the "maniacs" - hopefully just hot air from a minority without real power. However, that probably makes it all the more important that Starmer does start presenting some appealing ideas for a Lab Govt in the coming months, preferably at least some that appeal to the Left while not putting off moderates/swing voters (perfectly possible - Green New Deal, economic investment in regions/small business, National Care Service linked to NHS, crackdown on corporate tax avoidance, restore nurses' bursaries to recruit more etc.). Wouldn't want perceived drift lead to the Corbynistas taking charge of the NEC or annual conference. 

It’s a tough one for Labour right now, they seem to be at a crossroads every few years and they keep selecting the road that goes in circles and leads them back to the same point.

I genuinely do hope they find a way through, even if it can be amusing at times. It will be better for all of us if they can be an effective opposition and be a genuine option at the ballot. I just fear they will go backwards if they don’t back KS.

[bovril]

Just now, Jon the Hat said:

You have a quote for that?  A policy statement?  

 

"It looked very much at the time as if the Conservative Party was not going to be able to get an overall majority on its own, particularly if it failed to promise a referendum. Under those circumstances, a Conservative Government, if it were able to be formed at all, might have depended on a UKIP alliance of some kind."

 

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/interview-pdf/?personid=43379

[Sharpe's Fox]

The best way to view Keir Starmer is that he is apolitical. That's not saying he is a centrist or middle of the road, Tony Blair was never apolitical, but that he lacks views on political issues. People waiting for "visionary ideas" from Starmer are going to wait a long time because he doesn't even comment on other people's ideas never mind have his own. If you think that's a good thing then fair enough but don't argue Starmer is something he isn't or that you are waiting for something he is never going to give.

[leicsmac]

2 minutes ago, Strokes said:

Being concerned about immigration doesn’t necessarily make you racist for a start.

Thats an immediate trap.

There are plenty of reasons to be concerned that do not mean you hate the people that are coming in.

When businesses employ ready made employees from abroad, they are skipping the need to train employees, thus making it harder for anyone starting out in employment as there are fewer apprenticeships etc.

Also Labour wanted to be in customs Union, which would have given the ECJ overruling power and plenty of people want to feel more in control, even if it’s futile.

If I wanted to trap, I wouldn't be nearly so obvious as that. The sentence should have stood on its own as a legit point to question, evidently that wasn't clear. Thanks for the answers, in any case.

 

I can understand the concern regarding jobs and immigration putting strain on such a market, but at the same time I'm not seeing much in the way of training projects for "homegrown" potential employees either. In any case, I think automation is going to force a change to the whole working world sooner rather than later and everyone - the UK included - needs to be ready for that.

 

4 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

"Man pitches for funding" would be a better headline perhaps.  All conjecture, and he is lobbying against someone he has heard a rumour about by the sounds of it.  As ever the proof is in the final budgets I guess.

If the UK decides to chip in an extra 2bn a year and there aren't any cuts to UK and collaborative science projects given the present economic climate then I'd be amazed.

 

The concern is perfectly legit. The events of the last year should have shown folks just how important scientific research is, and that's barely a glimpse of what is coming.

[Strokes]

13 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

If I wanted to trap, I wouldn't be nearly so obvious as that. The sentence should have stood on its own as a legit point to question, evidently that wasn't clear. Thanks for the answers, in any case.

 

I can understand the concern regarding jobs and immigration putting strain on such a market, but at the same time I'm not seeing much in the way of training projects for "homegrown" potential employees either. In any case, I think automation is going to force a change to the whole working world sooner rather than later and everyone - the UK included - needs to be ready for that.

 

 

Sorry if I wasn’t clear, I was not accusing you of setting a trap, just that it’s a trap people often fall into.

Its why people often didn’t even dare talk about immigration concerns if they were not racist. For fear of being thought as one.

[leicsmac]

Just now, Strokes said:

Sorry if I wasn’t clear, I was not accusing you of setting a trap, just that it’s a trap people often fall into.

Its why people often didn’t even dare talk about immigration concerns if they were not racist. For fear of being thought as one.

Fair enough, thank you.

 

There is of course more than one reason for being concerned about excessive competition in the job market. Also, racists do exist (in some number) too. So yeah, more than one focus.

 

However, I do think such concerns would be better served by adaptation to an environment where everyone would be able to work less and make as much (due to automation taking the load off while maintaining revenue) rather than trying to pursue a model that may become outdated in a changing world. R.Buckminster Fuller had it right.

[Strokes]

8 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Fair enough, thank you.

 

There is of course more than one reason for being concerned about excessive competition in the job market. Also, racists do exist (in some number) too. So yeah, more than one focus.

 

However, I do think such concerns would be better served by adaptation to an environment where everyone would be able to work less and make as much (due to automation taking the load off while maintaining revenue) rather than trying to pursue a model that may become outdated in a changing world. R.Buckminster Fuller had it right.

I’m sure there are better ways of creating the perfect world without stopping freedom of movement. However those choices are never available directly at the ballot box and that’s why so many seized the chance I think.

Oh and absolutely plenty of them are racist, I don’t deny that, I just deny that it was all or even most of them. And I deny that I’m ever deliberately racist.

Edited 31 March 2021 by Strokes

[Voll Blau]

4 hours ago, BenTheFox said:

I don't really know what Labour's best course of action is in terms of rebuilding the red wall. Many seats in the midlands and Northern England voted overwhelmingly in favour of Brexit and as a result Labour's stance (or lack of) on Brexit at the last general election played a significant part in losing the heartlands. A number of people lent the Tories their vote because of Brexit so you'd think that Boris Johnson and co will have their work cut out trying to keep those votes. However, this was clearly not the only issue for Labour. Corbyn came with a lot of baggage and I'm sure a lot of people, myself included felt that their manifesto, which was essentially a long wishlist didn't seem credible. 

 

I initially felt that Keir Starmer was a safe choice as I felt that a lot of undecided voters who lean more towards the centre are more likely to vote for him than Corbyn and those votes are undoubtedly important.  However, the more I think about it the less convinced I am that a millionaire remainer based in London is the right person to connect with the Labour heartlands. 

 

The guy's not been perfect by any means but I do find this an odd insult the Tories keep throwing at him, as if a London-based Etonian millionaire (who actually lived in Islington, unlike Starmer, despite his weird jibes recently at PMQs) was so off-putting for people. I know he doesn't enjoy playing up to it but Starmer will really need to emphasise his working class roots more in the lead up to 2024 if he wants to convince people he's not some sort of out of touch elitist (I don't get the sense he is by any stretch - he actually comes across as quite an empathetic guy, if lacking the killer instinct to really stand up and nail the Tories when it's needed).

 

That said, I do accept a Lisa Nandy or Andy Burnham would have to do a lot less work than he will to convince Northern/Midlands voters. I feel a bit sorry for Dodds but it would be great to see Nandy as Shadow Chancellor, she impresses me more every time I see her on TV.

[twister]

1 hour ago, Sharpe's Fox said:

The best way to view Keir Starmer is that he is apolitical. That's not saying he is a centrist or middle of the road, Tony Blair was never apolitical, but that he lacks views on political issues. People waiting for "visionary ideas" from Starmer are going to wait a long time because he doesn't even comment on other people's ideas never mind have his own. If you think that's a good thing then fair enough but don't argue Starmer is something he isn't or that you are waiting for something he is never going to give.

Labour are ****ed because just as they needed centrism to rise

 

the much more out left wing,woke  progressive tickets are pumping through left wing circles

 

Its not a election winner in the red wall but he wont be able to avoid as it grows amongst their base

 

Look at the demographics of the voters their not on labours side yet, their ****ed for now

 

they have **** all chance winning the next election

[Sharpe's Fox]

1 hour ago, Voll Blau said:

Starmer will really need to emphasise his working class roots more in the lead up to 2024 if he wants to convince people he's not some sort of out of touch elitist

What working class roots  the guy was at the top of the prosecution service after being a human rights lawyer. I'm not saying that's a bad thing, it's a perfectly admirable thing to do in life, but why make things up about the guy that no one is buying

Edited 31 March 2021 by Sharpe's Fox