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filbertway

Coronavirus Thread

By filbertway, in General Chat

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Otis

Otis

Posted
Posted
Just now, Heathrow fox said:

What should be worrying is the fact that these bunch of cuthberts running the country seem quite worried now.Do they know something we don’t?

No idea but you can't stay locked down for ever.

 

As soon is people start moving around more of course the cases will rise, just like the flu and other infectious deseases/viruses.

 

I agree everyone needs to be sensible, not go around licking each other. The current measures have gone to far peoples lives are being ruinned.

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Corky

Corky

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Innovindil said:

No people at sporting events til potentially March.

 

Wtf. lol

I really don't understand this. Why not just keep assessing the situation regularly instead of pinning a date well into the future which will pretty much plunge sports into meltdown?

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yorkie1999

yorkie1999

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Legend_in_blue said:

In 5 minutes if Bojo makes reference to this, he has well and truly lost the plot imo.

 

image.png.08b9ef8b5271df9d519e18935dbbb3f8.png

 

Calls for him to ditch Vallance and Whitty today and go with a more informed scientific opinion.  The tide is shifting.

They have to give the worst possible scenario though. If they said 10000 and it did actually end up being 50000, then they’d be in trouble. if it ends up being 10000 there’s not a problem, it’s the same as quoting a timescale for something to be done, if you over quote and deliver early the customer is happy, if you under quote they get pissed off.

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simFox

simFox

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

They have to give the worst possible scenario though. If they said 10000 and it did actually end up being 50000, then they’d be in trouble. if it ends up being 10000 there’s not a problem, it’s the same as quoting a timescale for something to be done, if you over quote and deliver early the customer is happy, if you under quote they get pissed off.

Eh? It's an economy and livelihoods of an entire population. If someone's going to make predictions that affect every aspect of our lives then they better be pretty sure about them and be put under intense scrutiny.  

 

Fergusons model has been proven to be so far out, Boris would have been better off asking Vardy.

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Benguin

Benguin

Posted
Posted

Message seemed quite clear to me.

 

I see breaches of social distancing and other regulations all day, everyday. We need to learn to live with this virus until there’s a vaccine and we can’t just shut everything down. The message is to obey the rule of 6 and social distancing. 
 

it’s too easy to make jokes about schools being open or Cummings not being fined but ultimately there’s a balance between allowing education and the economy to rebuild but also using common sense and not being a turnip.

 

Unfortunately, people are going to carry on being turnips so I can either see us going back to April style regs, or COVID taking over.

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Otis

Otis

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, simFox said:

Eh? It's an economy and livelihoods of an entire population. If someone's going to make predictions that affect every aspect of our lives then they better be pretty sure about them and be put under intense scrutiny.  

 

Fergusons model has been proven to be so far out, Boris would have been better off asking Vardy.

Agree by posting charts like that they are losing all credibility.

 

Why not post a chart that quadruples, then by Christmas there'll be no one left.

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dsr-burnley

dsr-burnley

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

They have to give the worst possible scenario though. If they said 10000 and it did actually end up being 50000, then they’d be in trouble. if it ends up being 10000 there’s not a problem, it’s the same as quoting a timescale for something to be done, if you over quote and deliver early the customer is happy, if you under quote they get pissed off.

In that case couldn't they have quoted that everyone would be dead by weekend?  

 

The main purpose of their quote was to try and frighten people,  Not to inform people or to advise people, but to frighten them into doing as they are told.  They invented an unrealistic figure which they know is wrong but which they thought was just low enough to be believable.

 

And we're supposed to "follow the science"?  This is pure spin.  Might as well go to Alistair Campbell.

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UpTheLeagueFox

UpTheLeagueFox

Posted
Posted
58 minutes ago, Benguin said:

Message seemed quite clear to me.

I see breaches of social distancing and other regulations all day, everyday. We need to learn to live with this virus until there’s a vaccine and we can’t just shut everything down. The message is to obey the rule of 6 and social distancing. 

it’s too easy to make jokes about schools being open or Cummings not being fined but ultimately there’s a balance between allowing education and the economy to rebuild but also using common sense and not being a turnip.

Unfortunately, people are going to carry on being turnips so I can either see us going back to April style regs, or COVID taking over.

Common sense posts like this should rightly be applauded :appl:

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Guest Fktf

Guest Fktf

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, Benguin said:

Message seemed quite clear to me.

 

I see breaches of social distancing and other regulations all day, everyday. We need to learn to live with this virus until there’s a vaccine and we can’t just shut everything down. The message is to obey the rule of 6 and social distancing. 
 

it’s too easy to make jokes about schools being open or Cummings not being fined but ultimately there’s a balance between allowing education and the economy to rebuild but also using common sense and not being a turnip.

 

Unfortunately, people are going to carry on being turnips so I can either see us going back to April style regs, or COVID taking over.

Full lockdown incoming. Too many people saying 'f-it, I'll do as I please', whilst also being the most vocal about how we can't afford another lockdown. Whether you agree with the necessity of controlling the virus or not, it's quite clear the govt have decided they're going to keep imposing measures until we halt the growing spread of the virus. We should all be playing the game to avoid the full lockdown, but too many individuals and companies/ organisations won't care.

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Kopfkino

Kopfkino

Posted
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18 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Is anyone even looking into the false positive numbers?

 

Why does it matter? If your curve is going upwards at a reasonable pace then, unless you're testing huge amounts more everyday or the test just gets magically less reliable everyday, it's because there's more actual cases. If cases double every week, then even if half your positives are false you only have an extra week to respond.  So what is the relevance of false positives?

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Guest Fktf

Guest Fktf

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

 

Why does it matter? If your curve is going upwards at a reasonable pace then, unless you're testing huge amounts more everyday or the test just gets magically less reliable everyday, it's because there's more actual cases. If cases double every week, then even if half your positives are false you only have an extra week to respond.  So what is the relevance of false positives?

Clutching at straws to personally justify not helping out.

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martyn

martyn

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, simFox said:

Eh? It's an economy and livelihoods of an entire population. If someone's going to make predictions that affect every aspect of our lives then they better be pretty sure about them and be put under intense scrutiny.  

 

Fergusons model has been proven to be so far out, Boris would have been better off asking Vardy.

What's the proof that Fergusons model is so far out? 

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Leicester_Loyal

Leicester_Loyal

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

 

Why does it matter? If your curve is going upwards at a reasonable pace then, unless you're testing huge amounts more everyday or the test just gets magically less reliable everyday, it's because there's more actual cases. If cases double every week, then even if half your positives are false you only have an extra week to respond.  So what is the relevance of false positives?

Cases will be nowhere near as high as the stats show if false positives are a decent sized number. For example at the start of September we conducted 158k tests, but on September 18th we conducted 233k tests. Those extra 75k tests could account for 600 cases, not a massive number granted but it certainly makes a difference. If the rate is 0.8% and we conducted 233k tests, over 1800 positive tests would be false.

 

Additionally you'll have people isolating with their families, costing them money if they get a false positive.

 

I was just wondering if anyone has raised it as I've only seen it mentioned on LBC but nothing has really been said by Boris or MPs about it.

 

1 minute ago, Fktf said:

Clutching at straws to personally justify not helping out.

Just gonna point out I've had about 14 days off since March, so the majority of the population can get to work on time, medical supplies can be delivered, food supplies can be delivered and people can lead a normal life. I've also deferred nearly all of my annual leave until next year to help out. My only freedom at the minute is going to the pub every 4 or so weeks.

 

So in summary:

 

tenor.gif?itemid=14523970

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Guest Fktf

Guest Fktf

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Cases will be nowhere near as high as the stats show if false positives are a decent sized number. For example at the start of September we conducted 158k tests, but on September 18th we conducted 233k tests. Those extra 75k tests could account for 600 cases, not a massive number granted but it certainly makes a difference. If the rate is 0.8% and we conducted 233k tests, over 1800 positive tests would be false.

 

Additionally you'll have people isolating with their families, costing them money if they get a false positive.

 

I was just wondering if anyone has raised it as I've only seen it mentioned on LBC but nothing has really been said by Boris or MPs about it.

 

Just gonna point out I've had about 14 days off since March, so the majority of the population can get to work on time, medical supplies can be delivered, food supplies can be delivered and people can lead a normal life. I've also deferred nearly all of my annual leave until next year to help out. My only freedom at the minute is going to the pub every 4 or so weeks.

 

So in summary:

 

tenor.gif?itemid=14523970

I owe you an apology. I should have read the posts before the one I quoted, as clearly my comment looked very pointedly directed at you. I didn't intend that.

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Guest Fktf

Guest Fktf

Posted
Posted
Just now, Leicester_Loyal said:

No worries mate, apologies for the GIF. We all get a little heated sometimes.

 

:thumbup:

Perfectly justified in your case, given what my comment looked like it was implying. No offence taken on my part mate 

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