Coronavirus Thread

[Charl91]

10 minutes ago, Parafox said:

 

 

It'll be the arrogant teens and the knuckle-draggers that will take offence to being challenged. The very same people that don't give a flying FuK about social distancing and house parties. The supermarkets need a greater level of security staff. They should be the ones challenges the idiots.

I've seen lots of "anti-masker" videos from America. Most of them certainly aren't teens.

 

 

[Parafox]

29 minutes ago, Charl91 said:

I've seen lots of "anti-masker" videos from America. Most of them certainly aren't teens.

 

 

Me too but we're not America. Anti-maskers aren't the same as people not bothering to wear masks but will socialise in large groups and those, in this country, are mainly teens and twenty-somethings from the published evidence and from personal experience.

Edited 23 September 2020 by Parafox

[Milo]

Feckers can barely wear their trousers properly...maybe masks are just too much of a challenge for them. 

[UniFox21]

27 minutes ago, Parafox said:

Me too but we're not America. Anti-maskers aren't the same as people not bothering to wear masks and those, in this country, are mainly teens and twenty-somethings from the published evidence and from personal experience.

From personal experience for me of comnuting twice daily on a train, every age group is at fault and just as guilty of not wearing a mask

[Wolfox]

Well test and trace is sloooow

 

Dropped my eldest daughter off at University last week - exciting times - new city - new people 

 

A girl in her dorm tested positive at the weekend and my daughter got a test the very same day (Saturday) she’s just got the result (positive) back today (4 days)

 

She’s fine - next to zero symptoms

 

No test and trace done - she’s been contacting people she’s been around independently and they’ve lost the march on the process - this is how it spreads quickly unless you’re all over it 

 

 

[Wolfox]

Just now, Wolfox said:

Well test and trace is sloooow

 

Dropped my eldest daughter off at University last week - exciting times - new city - new people 

 

A girl in her dorm tested positive at the weekend and my daughter got a test the very same day (Saturday) she’s just got the result (positive) back today (4 days)

 

She’s fine - next to zero symptoms

 

No test and trace done - she’s been contacting people she’s been around independently and they’ve lost the march on the process - this is how it spreads quickly unless you’re all over it 

 

 

Nearly a full house for my family!

 

My wife and I had it in March along with my youngest daughter 

 

my sister and her kids had it just after…

 

I need to get my son in on the act now…!

[Leicester_Loyal]

 

[Nuge]

On 22/09/2020 at 07:34, Col city fan said:

Which part isn’t relevant?

Nigel Farage. 

[simFox]

19 hours ago, Kopfkino said:

 

No, they'll be higher. We're still not in a position where testing is revealing every single case, the ONS's random sample study (which of course will have an element of false positives itself) put daily infections at about 6000 between 04/09 and 10/09, or about double what testing was showing. Thinking about numbers of false positives is a bit daft given actual cases are almost certainly significantly higher than known cases identified through the testing system. The ONS's study remains near enough constant in its sample size and yet showed close to a doubling from the previous week, that can't be attributed to FPR. False positives are just a smokescreen for people in denial trying to sound clever, it can't explain away the direction of travel and there's plenty of other data points which hint towards that direction of travel anyway.

 

False positives are caused by the cycles used in PCR testing, each cycle magnifies the virus so it can be detected, the earlier it is detected in the cycle the more infectious you are.

 

UK is using 40+ cycles. USA also I believe.

Germany is using apx 33 cycles. 

 

Anything over 30 is likely just magnifying dead fragments of virus and not someone who is infectious. So Germany only go to apx 33.

 

To put this into perspective, if the USA used 33 cycles, something like 70% of the detected cases wouldn't be cases.

 

The UK cycles used for PCR is coming under review.

 

I hope that clears your question up.

 

Have a Google to get the exact cycle numbers, bit you will find that we are being over sensitive in our testing.

 

It's like being drunk, pulling a stunner and waking up next to a minger. The UK testing is currently drunk so the stunner detector is working overtime.

Edited 23 September 2020 by simFox

[UniFox21]

4 minutes ago, simFox said:

False positives are caused by the cycles used in PCR testing, each cycle magnifies the virus so it can be detected, the earlier it is detected in the cycle the more infectious you are.

 

UK is using 40+ cycles. USA also I believe.

Germany is using apx 33 cycles. 

 

Anything over 30 is likely just magnifying dead fragments of virus and not someone who is infectious. So Germany only go to apx 33.

 

To put this into perspective, if the USA used 33 cycles, something like 70% of the detected cases wouldn't be cases.

 

The UK cycles used for PCR is coming under review.

 

I hope that clears your question up.

Pretty much spot on, our testing system has been set to identify basically every case rather than have false negatives.

 

Only pedantic thing I'll mention is the 'dead' virus, given it's never actually alive. It'll amplify small fragments likely broken down or in quantities that don't make the person infectious, as you mentioned. 

 

Don't understand the original posters "smokescreen" comment regarding false positives either. 

[fuchsntf]

1 hour ago, Col city fan said:

Just heard something which pretty much sums this country up at the moment....

Myself and Mrs Col are away on the second week of our holiday at the East Coast

I’ve just shopped around the local, mid-range food store and was chatting with the old gal on the till

She told me it was COMPANY POLICY not to challenge anyone who came in without a mask (across the whole chain of stores)

Not just ‘avoiding it’ but literally being warned NOT to challenge (and she said for fear of abuse etc). 
I said well what’s the point in having this rule now then? With which she shrugged her shoulders 

 

Brings me back again to you can have all the bloody rules and regs in place you want but who will enforce them? In this case, a policy of non-challenge 

 Contemporary Britain in a nutshell...

The Good citizen has been shot down in flames,by Silly govt,policing,& Judicial nanny state mentality & approach....

 

Where you off to col..??   Ingoldmells..Skeggy, or Russian 

You seem to like,the east coast,do you have anything there...??

Edited 23 September 2020 by fuchsntf

[yorkie1999]

1 hour ago, Col city fan said:

You misunderstand me

Of course I’m not advocating the gal on the till takes it upon herself to challenge Neanderthals

The point I was making is how on earth can this be enforced in any way?

By making it illegal to enter a shop without a mask 

[yorkie1999]

17 minutes ago, simFox said:

False positives are caused by the cycles used in PCR testing, each cycle magnifies the virus so it can be detected, the earlier it is detected in the cycle the more infectious you are.

 

UK is using 40+ cycles. USA also I believe.

Germany is using apx 33 cycles. 

 

Anything over 30 is likely just magnifying dead fragments of virus and not someone who is infectious. So Germany only go to apx 33.

 

To put this into perspective, if the USA used 33 cycles, something like 70% of the detected cases wouldn't be cases.

 

The UK cycles used for PCR is coming under review.

 

I hope that clears your question up.

 

Have a Google to get the exact cycle numbers, bit you will find that we are being over sensitive in our testing.

 

It's like being drunk, pulling a stunner and waking up next to a minger. The UK testing is currently drunk so the stunner detector is working overtime.

Shouldn’t there be a world standard set by the who. How can someone be positive in one country, fly to another and test negative 

[yorkie1999]

Anyone thinking that schools and universities return was a good idea only has to look at the current Glasgow situation.

[Kopfkino]

1 hour ago, simFox said:

False positives are caused by the cycles used in PCR testing, each cycle magnifies the virus so it can be detected, the earlier it is detected in the cycle the more infectious you are.

 

UK is using 40+ cycles. USA also I believe.

Germany is using apx 33 cycles. 

 

Anything over 30 is likely just magnifying dead fragments of virus and not someone who is infectious. So Germany only go to apx 33.

 

To put this into perspective, if the USA used 33 cycles, something like 70% of the detected cases wouldn't be cases.

 

The UK cycles used for PCR is coming under review.

 

I hope that clears your question up.

 

Have a Google to get the exact cycle numbers, bit you will find that we are being over sensitive in our testing.

 

It's like being drunk, pulling a stunner and waking up next to a minger. The UK testing is currently drunk so the stunner detector is working overtime.

 

No cos you haven't answered how that explains the quickly rising number of cases identified by the testing system, the ONS's figures, ZOE symptom tracker, REACT nor the rising number of hospitalisations which unfortunately will only continue to rise and result in deaths. Which are the things that matter. Unless come the start of September we conveniently all of sudden found loads more people to test with smaller amounts of the virus present that slipped the net before but given most people presenting for a Pillar 2 test have symptoms, it's unlikely.

 

For reference, New Zealand performs tests with 45 cycles, has performed 924,637 tests and returned 1,468 positive cases, a maximum possible FPR of 0.15%. The ONS's lowest number of positives was 50 from 120000 tests, a maximum FPR of 0.04%. 

 

I'd particularly like a source with hard evidence for this bit, "Anything over 30 is likely just magnifying dead fragments of virus and not someone who is infectious." Given that virus identified during a higher cycle could be because of poor sampling or at the start of an infection. And that when Dutch hospitals used testing to see if people could come out of isolation, the vast majority of IC patients were negative after two weeks. So if our testing is picking up all these false positives, it's because people have recently been infected anyway.

 

I await yet more obfuscation

 

1 hour ago, UniFox21 said:

 

Don't understand the original posters "smokescreen" comment regarding false positives either. 

 

Unsurprising.

Edited 23 September 2020 by Kopfkino

[Kopfkino]

Looks like those holding Sweden up as the holy grail might have to move on 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/23/sweden-shifts-no-lockdown-strategy/

[Leicester_Loyal]

 

[UniFox21]

1 minute ago, Kopfkino said:

Unsurprising.

Go on, enlighten me with why I'm too thick understand. 

[yorkie1999]

16 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

 

Something doesn’t add up. They’ve had 7 million cases and 200000 deaths. 6% of 7 million is 420000.

[Innovindil]

12 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

Something doesn’t add up. They’ve had 7 million cases and 200000 deaths. 6% of 7 million is 420000.

...Eh?

 

Where you getting 6% from? 

[st albans fox]

12 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

Something doesn’t add up. They’ve had 7 million cases and 200000 deaths. 6% of 7 million is 420000.

They must have had more than 7million cases .....they’ve had 7 million positive  tests 

 

why are you multiplying by 6% ?  Not everyone who has died is over 70 ??

[st albans fox]

1 hour ago, simFox said:

False positives are caused by the cycles used in PCR testing, each cycle magnifies the virus so it can be detected, the earlier it is detected in the cycle the more infectious you are.

 

UK is using 40+ cycles. USA also I believe.

Germany is using apx 33 cycles. 

 

Anything over 30 is likely just magnifying dead fragments of virus and not someone who is infectious. So Germany only go to apx 33.

 

To put this into perspective, if the USA used 33 cycles, something like 70% of the detected cases wouldn't be cases.

 

The UK cycles used for PCR is coming under review.

 

I hope that clears your question up.

 

Have a Google to get the exact cycle numbers, bit you will find that we are being over sensitive in our testing.

 

It's like being drunk, pulling a stunner and waking up next to a minger. The UK testing is currently drunk so the stunner detector is working overtime.

Surely if the false positive is because of dead virus showing up, it reveals that the person has had the virus before. So it’s still a genuine positive case for stats , even though they may not currently be infectious.  

[Benguin]

18 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

Something doesn’t add up. They’ve had 7 million cases and 200000 deaths. 6% of 7 million is 420000.

You have simply added the percentages up to get 6%. Maths doesn’t work like that. 
 

I you would need to do a sum based on the death rate an case number for each age group and add up. When that’s done you achieve the reported deaths number. 

Edited 23 September 2020 by Benguin

[joachim1965]

11 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Surely if the false positive is because of dead virus showing up, it reveals that the person has had the virus before. So it’s still a genuine positive case for stats , even though they may not currently be infectious.  

are you saying we should lockdown a country because it's full of people who have had a virus and are not infectious and therefore no longer a danger to anyone ?

The clue is in the terminology "false positive" 

Edited 23 September 2020 by joachim1965

[st albans fox]

3 minutes ago, joachim1965 said:

are you saying we should lockdown a country because it's full of people who have had a virus and are not infectious and therefore no longer a danger to anyone ?

The clue is in the terminology "false positive" 

I’m just pointing out that a false positive is still a positive re stats on positive cases. Strange that someone who has had the virus before now feels the need to get tested and didn’t when they actually had it !