Coronavirus Thread

[SpacedX]

5 minutes ago, joachim1965 said:

you hit the nail right on the head , sage are indeed a bunch of clowns.

There are plenty of eminent epidemiologists out there that are questioning the government experts, maybe you should go look yourself rather than Bury your head in BBC news.

Who mentioned BBC news? Science is axiomatic, evidence based and has a voice of its own. That does not involve cherry picking - something that you seem to be utterly unable to comprehend. 

[joachim1965]

1 minute ago, Line-X said:

Who mentioned BBC news? Science is axiomatic, evidence based and has a voice of its own. That does not involve cherry picking - something that you seem to be utterly unable to comprehend. 

I do comprehend, I comprehend very well which is why many many respected scientists are questioning sage. 

Neil Ferguson has a fantastic record don't you think.

 

[st albans fox]

Am I living in a parallel universe ?

 

mid September we were warned that cases would increase a lot over the next month if nothing was done

 

repsonse :  that’s rubbish, cases are only amongst the young and covid deaths are really low and hospital admissions are low.

 

six weeks later we have an average covid daily death rate of 220 (and increasing), cases are apparently approaching 100k daily and many hospital ICU’s in the worst affected areas are close to capacity 

 

response :  see mid September reply above 

 

I’m not arguing for any particular response but I have to call stuff out when it appears 

 

[Guest Fktf]

2 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Am I living in a parallel universe ?

 

mid September we were warned that cases would increase a lot over the next month if nothing was done

 

repsonse :  that’s rubbish, cases are only amongst the young and covid deaths are really low and hospital admissions are low.

 

six weeks later we have an average covid daily death rate of 220 (and increasing), cases are apparently approaching 100k daily and many hospital ICU’s in the worst affected areas are close to capacity 

 

response :  see mid September reply above 

 

I’m not arguing for any particular response but I have to call stuff out when it appears 

 

We live in days where opinions seem to matter more than data. Bizarre, isn't it? 

[Sol thewall Bamba]

12 hours ago, Trav Le Bleu said:

If these two statements are in fact true (I've seen them frequently mentioned in the media)...

 

A) 100,000 people per day are catching covid19

 

B) cases are doubling every 9 days

 

And it remains constant, then by Christmas over 6 million people will have it (not have had it, but actually have it) and by the end of January, everyone will have it or have had it.

 

Not saying that will happen, but it seems possible.

Back in the ground February then  

[Alf Bentley]

5 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

Back in the ground February then  

 

You confused me briefly there. I was thinking "back in the ground"......what, Welford Road Cemetery? 

[Costock_Fox]

2 hours ago, String fellow said:

Maybe the virus should be renamed COVID-19-DAYS. 19 days seems to be the average time that you spend with symptoms before either recovering or meeting the grim reaper.

Would solve it all wouldn’t it, thanks for your suggestion.

[Ollie93]

27 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Am I living in a parallel universe ?

 

mid September we were warned that cases would increase a lot over the next month if nothing was done

 

repsonse :  that’s rubbish, cases are only amongst the young and covid deaths are really low and hospital admissions are low.

 

six weeks later we have an average covid daily death rate of 220 (and increasing), cases are apparently approaching 100k daily and many hospital ICU’s in the worst affected areas are close to capacity 

 

response :  see mid September reply above 

 

I’m not arguing for any particular response but I have to call stuff out when it appears 

 

Just out of interest, what was the daily death rate during July/August time, when you'd expect it to be lower? Can it be tied into seasonal changes?

[Leicester_Loyal]

1 hour ago, Ollie93 said:

Does these Tiers actually make a difference? People are still doing what they want. Stay away from the vulnerable, respect those who want space, and live your life.

Only to businesses and pubs really. I'm not sure if local pubs will be enforcing the no mixing of households rule, otherwise they may as well close down, unless they just sit everyone 2 meters apart? I guess I'll find out soon enough!

[Innovindil]

31 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Am I living in a parallel universe ?

 

mid September we were warned that cases would increase a lot over the next month if nothing was done

 

repsonse :  that’s rubbish, cases are only amongst the young and covid deaths are really low and hospital admissions are low.

 

six weeks later we have an average covid daily death rate of 220 (and increasing), cases are apparently approaching 100k daily and many hospital ICU’s in the worst affected areas are close to capacity 

 

response :  see mid September reply above 

 

I’m not arguing for any particular response but I have to call stuff out when it appears 

 

It really is madness on here. We had people "Bleh it's only single figure deaths just carry on"... Now its above single figure deaths "Bleh it's still in line with excess deaths just carry on" even though most of the country hasn't peaked yet. 

 

The government have made plenty of mistakes throughout this (so has pretty much every Western government) but at least they are willing to shift policy to try and suit outcomes, instead of shifting outcomes to suit policy. 

 

Wonder how many have to be in hospital for the die hard no lockdown people to think twice. 

 

For the record, I don't like lockdown either, think it's a horseshit situation. But until there's a better option... 

[SpacedX]

47 minutes ago, joachim1965 said:

I do comprehend, I comprehend very well which is why many many respected scientists are questioning sage. 

Neil Ferguson has a fantastic record don't you think.

 

So does Fred Singer. I think you need to understand the difference between science and scientists, anecdote and empiricism, objectivity and subjectivity, opinion and causality. In the meantime, congratulations, these are for you...

 

https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/appeal-to-authority

 

https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/logicalfallacies/Cherry-Picking

 

 

[leicsmac]

47 minutes ago, Fktf said:

We live in days where opinions seem to matter more than data. Bizarre, isn't it? 

*cries in climate scientist*.

[Alf Bentley]

28 minutes ago, Ollie93 said:

Just out of interest, what was the daily death rate during July/August time, when you'd expect it to be lower? Can it be tied into seasonal changes?

 

Death rate was much lower in July/August. Started in high double figures, fell to single figures or low double figures.

4th graph down: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

 

Experts reckon season could have an impact as many viruses survive longer in cooler temperatures (e.g. flu virus).

But also, Covid spreads much more indoors than outdoors - and people spend more time indoors in winter than summer, obviously.

 

The season might be having some impact, but the dramatic rise in infections, hospitalisations and deaths is mainly down to people mingling more, I reckon.

In early July, numbers were low as we were just out of full lockdown, so there was much less virus out there and it wasn't spreading quickly throughout summer.

More people returning to work, school & uni (especially from summer) and "lockdown fatigue" set numbers rising again - though cooler temperatures & people being indoors more has doubtless exacerbated that. 

[CosbehFox]

2 hours ago, Ollie93 said:

Does these Tiers actually make a difference? People are still doing what they want. Stay away from the vulnerable, respect those who want space, and live your life.

There’s evidence to suggest Tier 3 is working within Manchester and Newcastle 

[reynard]

2 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

There’s evidence to suggest Tier 3 is working within Manchester and Newcastle 

And Liverpool I think where numbers in some areas are falling or at least stabilising.

Trouble is Tier systems only work if the vast majority of people obey the rules. For pity's sake some people can't even be bothered to wear masks.

[reynard]

Not sure if this link has been posted but if not and anyone wants to find out how their own tiny area is faring it is handy. The date as ever is a few days behind real time to allow for data to be more accurately updated.

https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map

[Buce]

57 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Only to businesses and pubs really. I'm not sure if local pubs will be enforcing the no mixing of households rule, otherwise they may as well close down, unless they just sit everyone 2 meters apart? I guess I'll find out soon enough!

 

My daughter does a few evening shifts in an Oadby pub, and they are turning a blind eye to any such transgressions on the basis that their local competitors are doing the same.

[String fellow]

It seems a bit strange to slag off Sage and praise Neil Ferguson, when he himself was part of Sage, before having to resign. If I recall correctly, the naughty man was visited at his home by his fancy piece in early May, whilst restrictions in London were still at their tightest. That's not exactly 'a fantastic record' on his part.

[joachim1965]

57 minutes ago, Line-X said:

So does Fred Singer. I think you need to understand the difference between science and scientists, anecdote and empiricism, objectivity and subjectivity, opinion and causality. In the meantime, congratulations, these are for you...

 

https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/appeal-to-authority

 

https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/logicalfallacies/Cherry-Picking

 

 

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

On a positive note flu deaths are reported to be down on previous years. 

[dsr-burnley]

20 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

There’s evidence to suggest Tier 3 is working within Manchester and Newcastle 

One thing they need to be careful of is attributing cause and effect.  If I stand on a beach and sea a wave coming towards me, I can say "get back" and it will.  It doesn't mean I have power over the water.

 

Is it the same thing with lockdowns?  Are they, presumably by accident not by design, waiting until the wave is at or near its peak before ordering lockdown, so that lockdown gets the credit for the wave receding when it would have done that anyway?  After all, the spring wave still receded in countries that didn't have lockdown.

[joachim1965]

1 hour ago, Line-X said:

So does Fred Singer. I think you need to understand the difference between science and scientists, anecdote and empiricism, objectivity and subjectivity, opinion and causality. In the meantime, congratulations, these are for you...

 

https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/appeal-to-authority

 

https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/logicalfallacies/Cherry-Picking

 

 

Do you know who Karry Mullis is ?

In case you don't,  he is a nobel prize winner who invented the Pcr test, the same test that is being used to diagnose covid 19.

Karry Mullis is on record stating that Pcr cannot be used to diagnose illness, it cannot tell you if you are sick, or are going to become sick. This is fact, not a cherry picked fallacy, but we continue to use this test to confirm "cases" , if you want to listen to "so called experts " then that's up to you but you can't argue with facts, and the facts state that there is currently no excess deaths in England, if you don't want to believe this then that is up to you, but please don't try to ridicule me because I have  different opinion to you.

 

Edited 30 October 2020 by joachim1965

[CosbehFox]

10 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

One thing they need to be careful of is attributing cause and effect.  If I stand on a beach and sea a wave coming towards me, I can say "get back" and it will.  It doesn't mean I have power over the water.

 

Is it the same thing with lockdowns?  Are they, presumably by accident not by design, waiting until the wave is at or near its peak before ordering lockdown, so that lockdown gets the credit for the wave receding when it would have done that anyway?  After all, the spring wave still receded in countries that didn't have lockdown.

Personally I think it’s more like related to Unis reading weeks and half term than the actual restrictions. 
 

However the R rate is slowing in the North so 

[leicsmac]

18 minutes ago, joachim1965 said:

Do you know who Karry Mullis is ?

In case you don't,  he is a nobel prize winner who invented the Pcr test, the same test that is being used to diagnose covid 19.

Karry Mullis is on record stating that Pcr cannot be used to diagnose illness, it cannot tell you if you are sick, or are going to become sick. This is fact, not a cherry picked fallacy, but we continue to use this test to confirm "cases" , if you want to listen to "so called experts " then that's up to you but you can't argue with facts, and the facts state that there is currently no excess deaths in England, if you don't want to believe this then that is up to you, but please don't try to ridicule me because I have  different opinion to you.

 

Purely for everyone else's benefit, he's on record saying nothing of the sort and this has been covered before.

[WigstonWanderer]

1 hour ago, dsr-burnley said:

One thing they need to be careful of is attributing cause and effect.  If I stand on a beach and sea a wave coming towards me, I can say "get back" and it will.  It doesn't mean I have power over the water.

 

Is it the same thing with lockdowns?  Are they, presumably by accident not by design, waiting until the wave is at or near its peak before ordering lockdown, so that lockdown gets the credit for the wave receding when it would have done that anyway?  After all, the spring wave still receded in countries that didn't have lockdown.

Yup, that’s exactly right, it’s all a conspiracy! Prescient bastards!