Coronavirus Thread

[foxile5]

2 hours ago, yorkie1999 said:

There’s simply no point in radical action whilst kids are at school. We can isolate all we like but sending a child to school with 30 others in one room is just increasing the odds massively of it spreading back to the home, and if someone’s got 3 children then it’s a 90 to one probability of the virus being brought home. Everyday.

Yeah. You're right. 

[Nod.E]

12 hours ago, Line-X said:

Really? I suggest that you read the last month of this thread. Actually don't.

 

A key part in Australia's defences lies in its geography being an isolated island. In March, it promptly closed its international borders to foreign travellers to prevent imported infections - also state lockdown policies have been decisive, committed and effectual aided by a compliant citizenship that unlike the UK has embraced distancing protocols. This in tandem with a comprehensive programme of testing and contact tracing. Lockdown is not an isolated measure - it is designed to reduce clinical impact and bring the virus under control and is not a policy that operates in isolation of a range of other measures. It is however demonstrably necessary. 

I'd be much more inclined to agree with you if I had any faith at all in the government being able to manage an effective test and trace system. 

[Nod.E]

5 hours ago, String fellow said:

With hospitals filling up again with COVID-19 patients and the daily death rate starting to rise ominously, maybe we'll see a return to the Thursday evening street applause for NHS staff. Unrelated to that, I'm struggling to work why England's 3 tiers are named medium/high/very-high and not low/medium/high, and Scotland's 5 tiers are numbered 0-4 and not 1-5. 

*Shudders*

 

[joachim1965]

6 hours ago, Sampson said:

Not to mention that chart is ony up to 7th October - which is 3 weeks ago now in real time and a week old on the ONS reports, which come out 2 weeks later so they can compile everything.

Conveniently, that was the last week where we were below the 5 year average. As you can see on the actual latest ONS data from the ONS website below, it was the week of 10th-16th October where the deaths started to go above that again (and as we know have continued to rise since).

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending16october2020



That said, we don't know how bad this 2nd wave will be yet. I'd wager it will be flatter but longer, due to greater social distancing and better health care knowledge. But given 0.066% of our population have died of Covid, compared to say, 0.18% of the population of New Jersey (and now sadly rising again), there's certainly the scope for there to be as many deaths in this 2nd wave, or even twice as many deaths if it were to rip through the population.

Perhaps the most worrying thing this highlights though, which is what we were hoping would be the case, is that Covid only seems to be making a small difference to the usual number of people dying from flu or other forms of contagious pneumonia. Which you'd hope it would be the same people dying of flu and Covid, but that only seems to be making a small impact on less flu/pneumonia deaths than the past 5 year average. Meaning the double-whammy of both flu and covid this winter on top of each other (rather than cancelling each other out and having roughly the same number of deaths) seems increasingly likely.

Even the charts you have posted look nothing out of the ordinary, we will see an uptick in deaths as it is that time of year , but it looks pretty average based on government information,  not getting into wild debates with anyone but just thought some sanity was needed as one poster was hysterical, claiming 1000 deaths per day through November, daily death figures can be misleading as it is excess deaths that should be looked at.

The chart I posted takes in the 14th October, I will look at next week's covid surveillance report and see if anything is happening,  if the deaths are rising I will be the first one to hold up my hands and say I was wrong.

Edited 28 October 2020 by joachim1965

[Strokes]

11 hours ago, Trav Le Bleu said:

Erm.... I think I know what you're trying to say, but that's not the right way. 90-1 is decreasing the odds.

Quick get making babies.

[StanSP]

What does everyone think will happen for Xmas then in terms of guidelines/rules? 

 

Rule of six to stay in place or be temporarily stopped? 

 

I think several people/families will break the rules regardless which in some ways shows how careless they can/will be. 

 

It'd be weird if they stopped the rules for a day or two as it is. As if coronavirus takes a break for the holidays too... 

[Nalis]

2 minutes ago, StanSP said:

What does everyone think will happen for Xmas then in terms of guidelines/rules? 

 

Rule of six to stay in place or be temporarily stopped? 

 

I think several people/families will break the rules regardless which in some ways shows how careless they can/will be. 

 

It'd be weird if they stopped the rules for a day or two as it is. As if coronavirus takes a break for the holidays too... 

I reckon they'll say something like meeting no more than 3 households in the hope people stick to it, maybe with the caveat of harder restrictions prior to Christmas.

 

Lets face it, at least 80% of people wont stick to Tier 1 restrictions for Xmas let alone Tier 2 or 3 so the government know they'll have to be realistic in their advice regardless of the level of cases.

 

I know a couple of high risk people in their 80s who want to see their family for Xmas rather than not and possibly end catching and/or dying of covid within the year anyway.

[Leicester_Loyal]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8886855/Police-commissioner-says-officers-break-Christmas-dinners-families-flout-lockdown-rules.html

 

My nan's going to get nicked isn't she? Straight in cuffs then onto a cell in D wing

[Nalis]

56 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8886855/Police-commissioner-says-officers-break-Christmas-dinners-families-flout-lockdown-rules.html

 

My nan's going to get nicked isn't she? Straight in cuffs then onto a cell in D wing

It could end up being a convenient excuse not to invite family members you dont want around. 'Sorry nan in law, you cant come round for xmas, covid restrictions etc, sorry. Nothing to do with you being a moaning racist craic killer at all....'

Edited 28 October 2020 by Nalis

[Leicester_Loyal]

3 minutes ago, Nalis said:

I could end up being a convenient excuse not to invite family members you dont want around. 'Sorry nan in law, you cant come round for xmas, covid restrictions etc, sorry. Nothing to do with you being a moaning racist craic killer at all....'

Get the ***** round then ring the old bill and have them all arrested

 

'They just turned up uninvited Mr. Officer'.

[Innovindil]

52 minutes ago, StanSP said:

What does everyone think will happen for Xmas then in terms of guidelines/rules? 

 

Rule of six to stay in place or be temporarily stopped? 

 

I think several people/families will break the rules regardless which in some ways shows how careless they can/will be. 

 

It'd be weird if they stopped the rules for a day or two as it is. As if coronavirus takes a break for the holidays too... 

I'm 100% in this group. I've been a good puppy since day one but there is not a chance I don't spend time with the family at Christmas. 

[dsr-burnley]

1 hour ago, Nalis said:

I reckon they'll say something like meeting no more than 3 households in the hope people stick to it, maybe with the caveat of harder restrictions prior to Christmas.

 

Lets face it, at least 80% of people wont stick to Tier 1 restrictions for Xmas let alone Tier 2 or 3 so the government know they'll have to be realistic in their advice regardless of the level of cases.

 

I know a couple of high risk people in their 80s who want to see their family for Xmas rather than not and possibly end catching and/or dying of covid within the year anyway.

Everybody in their eighties is high risk.  Some people might be amazed at how many old people die - 10% of people aged 80 or over this Christmas will be celebrating their last one.  10% of over eighties die each year.  In the last 7 months that rate of death has changed to 11-12%.  Some over-80s don't see that as an unbearable risk.

Edited 28 October 2020 by dsr-burnley

[Samilktray]

Took my other half for a test at the birstall park and ride. Felt like I was landing a Boeing 747

[Trav Le Bleu]

24 minutes ago, Samilktray said:

Took my other half for a test at the birstall park and ride. Felt like I was landing a Boeing 747

So many innuendos.

[reynard]

Not sure how our situation is tracking that in the rest of Europe but there are some serious developments in some countries. I fear we are around 3-4 weeks behind France where it looks like there will be another full lockdown.

[Leicester_Loyal]

21 minutes ago, reynard said:

Not sure how our situation is tracking that in the rest of Europe but there are some serious developments in some countries. I fear we are around 3-4 weeks behind France where it looks like there will be another full lockdown.

If we don't have another full lockdown, they'll be the majority of councils in Tier 2 & 3 at some point, it was always going to happen through winter.

[nnfox]

5 hours ago, StanSP said:

What does everyone think will happen for Xmas then in terms of guidelines/rules? 

 

Rule of six to stay in place or be temporarily stopped? 

 

I think several people/families will break the rules regardless which in some ways shows how careless they can/will be. 

 

It'd be weird if they stopped the rules for a day or two as it is. As if coronavirus takes a break for the holidays too... 

I read somewhere that there are plans to lift restrictions for two days over Christmas.  The net effect will be minor if the restrictions go back on swiftly.  On a family level, some people WILL die before their time because they contracted it from a relative whilst having Christmas dinner. 

It's very much going to be up to the individual.  Personally I'm not sure it's worth it, if there is an elderly family member who can reasonably be expected to live for the next 5 years, then I'd rather pass this year in the hope of having 4 more with them.  That's the gamble.

[yorkie1999]

1 hour ago, reynard said:

Not sure how our situation is tracking that in the rest of Europe but there are some serious developments in some countries. I fear we are around 3-4 weeks behind France where it looks like there will be another full lockdown.

The reason we were 3-4 weeks behind countries like italy and france was because of the virus migrating through countries i.e. it had to get here and then spread and take hold and then we see the result. Since global restrictions on travel etc, i don't think that's the case anymore but think it's more to do with each countries attempts at internally controlling the virus. If we locked the whole country down tomorrow for a month and stopped any travel into the country, the virus must surely disappear, as everyone who currently has it will either pass it on to their immediate household and they'll all be ill but recover from it or need to go to hospital, It can't spread anymore than each individual household.

[dsr-burnley]

21 minutes ago, nnfox said:

I read somewhere that there are plans to lift restrictions for two days over Christmas.  The net effect will be minor if the restrictions go back on swiftly.  On a family level, some people WILL die before their time because they contracted it from a relative whilst having Christmas dinner. 

It's very much going to be up to the individual.  Personally I'm not sure it's worth it, if there is an elderly family member who can reasonably be expected to live for the next 5 years, then I'd rather pass this year in the hope of having 4 more with them.  That's the gamble.

On a family level, there are always people who die before their time because they go and see family for Christmas dinner.  And catching a respiratory disease is the most common way of doing it.  This year the odds will be worse - as I said earlier, the March/April rapid spread of coronavirus has changed the likelihood that a person over dies this year from 10% to 11%.  If we have a second wave as bad as the first, that will make it 12%.  Which means that if there is a 20% chance that this is your last Christmas, the odds are perhaps in your favour.

 

Even if your elderly family member does have five more years of life, what quality will they be?  The last 4 years may see them unable to walk.  This may be the last year when they are compos mentis.  The year of purdah will almost certainly set them back if they have any tendency to dementia at all.  If death is certain or highly likely from coming to Christmas dinner, it would be different; but as one Christmas dinner increases their chance of death from 10% to perhaps 10.01% (and even that is based on the idea that 1 in 100 old folks' coronavirus deaths were caused by 1 family dinner) then it isn't worth sacrificing this year in hope fo 4 more.

 

What I'm saying, basically, is that if you tell your old relatives who have been shielding for months that they can come and have a normal family Christmas, that will be far better for them than telling them that they are stuck on their own for another 6 months, see you in April if we have a vaccine.  There's more to life than breathing.

[z-layrex]

21 hours ago, Sampson said:

How bad were you when you had it in February?

 

I know you said the hospital beds are filling up again. How are they looking in comparison to March/April time?

 

There was an interesting article on the BBC website a couple of days ago about how people aren't being put into comes anymore they're mostly awake and talking. So ICU has a different feel to it.

 

Would be interested to get your take.

That article on the BBC was pretty ignorant to be honest. ICU populations are always less acute during the warmer months, the patients starting to come in now are as sick as before. All perfectly manageable in terms of beds at the moment, Wales and Manchester area getting hit pretty hard though.

 

We had a lot of sickness at work over those couple weeks in feb. I had been feeling off for a few days, was on a night shift and started feeling worse and worse, dry cough and fever. Went home and got in bed, my mrs was away working. I had hallucinations for about a day after that so must have had a stonking fever, constantly feeling ice cold and very nasty cough. Just thought it was the flu! After my fever came down my chest got worse, but I also remember being incredibly hungry. I ordered 2 dominoes and I usually hate shit pizza like that. Definitely the weirdest illness I ever had. What was weird was I always felt worse after taking ibuprofen.

 

 

Edited 28 October 2020 by z-layrex

[whoareyaaa]

1 hour ago, z-layrex said:

That article on the BBC was pretty ignorant to be honest. ICU populations are always less acute during the warmer months, the patients starting to come in now are as sick as before. All perfectly manageable in terms of beds at the moment, Wales and Manchester area getting hit pretty hard though.

 

We had a lot of sickness at work over those couple weeks in feb. I had been feeling off for a few days, was on a night shift and started feeling worse and worse, dry cough and fever. Went home and got in bed, my mrs was away working. I had hallucinations for about a day after that so must have had a stonking fever, constantly feeling ice cold and very nasty cough. Just thought it was the flu! After my fever came down my chest got worse, but I also remember being incredibly hungry. I ordered 2 dominoes and I usually hate shit pizza like that. Definitely the weirdest illness I ever had. What was weird was I always felt worse after taking ibuprofen.

 

 

had something similar myself in feb caught it off this bloke from work by the time i got home i felt awful same things as you got.

 

I do wonder but does adverse effects of a panic attack or anxiety cause people to require ventilators? 

[urban.spaceman]

As of Friday Nottingham will be in the top tier for the first time in 20 years.

[SpacedX]

2 hours ago, dsr-burnley said:

There's more to life than breathing.

I think you'll find that there is nonetheless a link between the two. 

[RowlattsFox]

So Germany and France announce "lockdowns" when they're aren't really from what I can see? Just additional restrictions. And now people are complaining we aren't doing the same when there isn't much different to a tier 3 here, just restaurants closed as well. 

 

Inevitably most areas will be tier 3 in sure. 

[Leicester_Loyal]

5 hours ago, nnfox said:

I read somewhere that there are plans to lift restrictions for two days over Christmas.  The net effect will be minor if the restrictions go back on swiftly.  On a family level, some people WILL die before their time because they contracted it from a relative whilst having Christmas dinner. 

It's very much going to be up to the individual.  Personally I'm not sure it's worth it, if there is an elderly family member who can reasonably be expected to live for the next 5 years, then I'd rather pass this year in the hope of having 4 more with them.  That's the gamble.

Just be sensible in the week or 10 days leading up to Christmas, that's what I'd suggest, but obviously like you say it's up to the individual.