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The most worrying thing is that this rise in cases, and deaths, is going to continue unabated because the government are dead set against radical action. 

 

I'm going to predict a 1000 a day at least through November, December, and January. We will hear the phrase 'robust response' at least twice a week. 

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4 minutes ago, foxile5 said:

The most worrying thing is that this rise in cases, and deaths, is going to continue unabated because the government are dead set against radical action. 

 

I'm going to predict a 1000 a day at least through November, December, and January. We will hear the phrase 'robust response' at least twice a week. 

The latest government covid surveillance report states that there are currently no excess deaths in England, we are currently following the five year average, no more people are dying now than were at this time last year or the previous five years.

Screenshot_20201023-171628_Drive.jpg

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3 hours ago, z-layrex said:

I had covid in February when it ripped through my hospital (we didn't know what it was at the time). I've been looking after covid patients mostly non stop since, short of a brief period in the summer. My ffp3 mask never fits properly because I have a big nose, sometimes I am lazy and don't shave for a few days so the seal isn't there. The trust provided me a big reusable mask that does protect me properly, but I honestly just find it too painful to wear for 13 hour shifts so I don't.

 

Been exposed constantly, I've worn just a surgical mask with undiagnosed covid patients coughing all over me and in my face. Doing bronchoscopies on the icu creating an aerosol all around me with the mask slipped down below my nose cos I'm sweaty and my hands are full/contaminated so cant pull it up.

 

I had zero antibodies when tested a few months ago.Touch wood I am still fine, I have to be immune to not be getting sick with this constant exposure surely?

From what I can work out, antibodies  are produced by the immune system as memory cells which fight all these viruses so they’re not present all the time, only as and when required else you’d have all these different antibodies floating round in your system attacking each other.

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8 minutes ago, foxile5 said:

The most worrying thing is that this rise in cases, and deaths, is going to continue unabated because the government are dead set against radical action. 

 

I'm going to predict a 1000 a day at least through November, December, and January. We will hear the phrase 'robust response' at least twice a week. 

There’s simply no point in radical action whilst kids are at school. We can isolate all we like but sending a child to school with 30 others in one room is just increasing the odds massively of it spreading back to the home, and if someone’s got 3 children then it’s a 90 to one probability of the virus being brought home. Everyday.

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2 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

There’s simply no point in radical action whilst kids are at school. We can isolate all we like but sending a child to school with 30 others in one room is just increasing the odds massively of it spreading back to the home, and if someone’s got 3 children then it’s a 90 to one probability of the virus being brought home. Everyday.

Erm.... I think I know what you're trying to say, but that's not the right way. 90-1 is decreasing the odds.

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1 hour ago, Charl91 said:

Because if you named a tier 'low', then people there wouldn't STAY ALERT and CONTROL THE VIRUS.

But they would know if what they’re currently doing is helping control the virus in their area. It’s a bit defeatist if everyone in an area has done their best to prevent the virus spreading only to be told that it’s not enough. People will end up just saying fvck it. 

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1 hour ago, joachim1965 said:

The latest government covid surveillance report states that there are currently no excess deaths in England, we are currently following the five year average, no more people are dying now than were at this time last year or the previous five years.

Screenshot_20201023-171628_Drive.jpg

As was the case in March, right before we got tonnes of deaths every day for a sustained period. Only last time we had summer to rescue us.

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33 minutes ago, Fktf said:

As was the case in March, right before we got tonnes of deaths every day for a sustained period. Only last time we had summer to rescue us.

Not to mention that chart is ony up to 7th October - which is 3 weeks ago now in real time and a week old on the ONS reports, which come out 2 weeks later so they can compile everything.

Conveniently, that was the last week where we were below the 5 year average. As you can see on the actual latest ONS data from the ONS website below, it was the week of 10th-16th October where the deaths started to go above that again (and as we know have continued to rise since).
image.png.b2d04e8f68f39ce78a7d2d54a47729ea.png
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending16october2020



That said, we don't know how bad this 2nd wave will be yet. I'd wager it will be flatter but longer, due to greater social distancing and better health care knowledge. But given 0.066% of our population have died of Covid, compared to say, 0.18% of the population of New Jersey (and now sadly rising again), there's certainly the scope for there to be as many deaths in this 2nd wave, or even twice as many deaths if it were to rip through the population.

Perhaps the most worrying thing this highlights though, which is what we were hoping would be the case, is that Covid only seems to be making a small difference to the usual number of people dying from flu or other forms of contagious pneumonia. Which you'd hope it would be the same people dying of flu and Covid, but that only seems to be making a small impact on less flu/pneumonia deaths than the past 5 year average. Meaning the double-whammy of both flu and covid this winter on top of each other (rather than cancelling each other out and having roughly the same number of deaths) seems increasingly likely.

Edited by Sampson
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2 hours ago, yorkie1999 said:

There’s simply no point in radical action whilst kids are at school. We can isolate all we like but sending a child to school with 30 others in one room is just increasing the odds massively of it spreading back to the home, and if someone’s got 3 children then it’s a 90 to one probability of the virus being brought home. Everyday.

Yeah. You're right. 

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12 hours ago, Line-X said:

Really? I suggest that you read the last month of this thread. Actually don't.

 

A key part in Australia's defences lies in its geography being an isolated island. In March, it promptly closed its international borders to foreign travellers to prevent imported infections - also state lockdown policies have been decisive, committed and effectual aided by a compliant citizenship that unlike the UK has embraced distancing protocols. This in tandem with a comprehensive programme of testing and contact tracing. Lockdown is not an isolated measure - it is designed to reduce clinical impact and bring the virus under control and is not a policy that operates in isolation of a range of other measures. It is however demonstrably necessary. 

I'd be much more inclined to agree with you if I had any faith at all in the government being able to manage an effective test and trace system. 

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6 hours ago, Sampson said:

Not to mention that chart is ony up to 7th October - which is 3 weeks ago now in real time and a week old on the ONS reports, which come out 2 weeks later so they can compile everything.

Conveniently, that was the last week where we were below the 5 year average. As you can see on the actual latest ONS data from the ONS website below, it was the week of 10th-16th October where the deaths started to go above that again (and as we know have continued to rise since).
image.png.b2d04e8f68f39ce78a7d2d54a47729ea.png
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending16october2020



That said, we don't know how bad this 2nd wave will be yet. I'd wager it will be flatter but longer, due to greater social distancing and better health care knowledge. But given 0.066% of our population have died of Covid, compared to say, 0.18% of the population of New Jersey (and now sadly rising again), there's certainly the scope for there to be as many deaths in this 2nd wave, or even twice as many deaths if it were to rip through the population.

Perhaps the most worrying thing this highlights though, which is what we were hoping would be the case, is that Covid only seems to be making a small difference to the usual number of people dying from flu or other forms of contagious pneumonia. Which you'd hope it would be the same people dying of flu and Covid, but that only seems to be making a small impact on less flu/pneumonia deaths than the past 5 year average. Meaning the double-whammy of both flu and covid this winter on top of each other (rather than cancelling each other out and having roughly the same number of deaths) seems increasingly likely.

Even the charts you have posted look nothing out of the ordinary, we will see an uptick in deaths as it is that time of year , but it looks pretty average based on government information,  not getting into wild debates with anyone but just thought some sanity was needed as one poster was hysterical, claiming 1000 deaths per day through November, daily death figures can be misleading as it is excess deaths that should be looked at.

The chart I posted takes in the 14th October, I will look at next week's covid surveillance report and see if anything is happening,  if the deaths are rising I will be the first one to hold up my hands and say I was wrong.

Edited by joachim1965
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What does everyone think will happen for Xmas then in terms of guidelines/rules? 

 

Rule of six to stay in place or be temporarily stopped? 

 

I think several people/families will break the rules regardless which in some ways shows how careless they can/will be. 

 

It'd be weird if they stopped the rules for a day or two as it is. As if coronavirus takes a break for the holidays too... 

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2 minutes ago, StanSP said:

What does everyone think will happen for Xmas then in terms of guidelines/rules? 

 

Rule of six to stay in place or be temporarily stopped? 

 

I think several people/families will break the rules regardless which in some ways shows how careless they can/will be. 

 

It'd be weird if they stopped the rules for a day or two as it is. As if coronavirus takes a break for the holidays too... 

I reckon they'll say something like meeting no more than 3 households in the hope people stick to it, maybe with the caveat of harder restrictions prior to Christmas.

 

Lets face it, at least 80% of people wont stick to Tier 1 restrictions for Xmas let alone Tier 2 or 3 so the government know they'll have to be realistic in their advice regardless of the level of cases.

 

I know a couple of high risk people in their 80s who want to see their family for Xmas rather than not and possibly end catching and/or dying of covid within the year anyway.

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56 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

It could end up being a convenient excuse not to invite family members you dont want around. 'Sorry nan in law, you cant come round for xmas, covid restrictions etc, sorry. Nothing to do with you being a moaning racist craic killer at all....'

Edited by Nalis
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3 minutes ago, Nalis said:

I could end up being a convenient excuse not to invite family members you dont want around. 'Sorry nan in law, you cant come round for xmas, covid restrictions etc, sorry. Nothing to do with you being a moaning racist craic killer at all....'

Get the ***** round then ring the old bill and have them all arrested:wave:

 

'They just turned up uninvited Mr. Officer'.

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52 minutes ago, StanSP said:

What does everyone think will happen for Xmas then in terms of guidelines/rules? 

 

Rule of six to stay in place or be temporarily stopped? 

 

I think several people/families will break the rules regardless which in some ways shows how careless they can/will be. 

 

It'd be weird if they stopped the rules for a day or two as it is. As if coronavirus takes a break for the holidays too... 

I'm 100% in this group. I've been a good puppy since day one but there is not a chance I don't spend time with the family at Christmas. 

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1 hour ago, Nalis said:

I reckon they'll say something like meeting no more than 3 households in the hope people stick to it, maybe with the caveat of harder restrictions prior to Christmas.

 

Lets face it, at least 80% of people wont stick to Tier 1 restrictions for Xmas let alone Tier 2 or 3 so the government know they'll have to be realistic in their advice regardless of the level of cases.

 

I know a couple of high risk people in their 80s who want to see their family for Xmas rather than not and possibly end catching and/or dying of covid within the year anyway.

Everybody in their eighties is high risk.  Some people might be amazed at how many old people die - 10% of people aged 80 or over this Christmas will be celebrating their last one.  10% of over eighties die each year.  In the last 7 months that rate of death has changed to 11-12%.  Some over-80s don't see that as an unbearable risk.

Edited by dsr-burnley
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21 minutes ago, reynard said:

Not sure how our situation is tracking that in the rest of Europe but there are some serious developments in some countries. I fear we are around 3-4 weeks behind France where it looks like there will be another full lockdown.

If we don't have another full lockdown, they'll be the majority of councils in Tier 2 & 3 at some point, it was always going to happen through winter.

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