Coronavirus Thread

[Super_horns]

11 minutes ago, Charl91 said:

Well my friends wedding is ****ed then, and possibly mine too. 

 

Thanks, Tories. 

Sorry to hear that.

 

Guess they will say weddings can be indoors and with people in close contact but then so is going to the pub potentially? 

[Leicester_Loyal]

46 minutes ago, StanSP said:

 

Absolute bollocks. How can a successful vaccine programme lead to the first wave being exceeded at this point of the pandemic? (its not even classed as a pandemic any more?) 

 

What happened to being led by the data and not overwhelming the NHS? Surely lack of severe hospitalisations and low deaths does that? 

 

Original plans are for just under 90.

 

My gut feeling is it'll be 50 or some arbitrary figure. It's a plus because it finally goes over the 30 limit which has been in place far too long. I still can't comprehend how it's remained at 30 for so long while other events have been allowed to have so many more. It's ridiculous. 

Yeah I doubt you'll get anywhere near 90 sadly, I think 50 as well tbh.

 

I know a few people in the same boat, rearranged from 12 months ago and they'll now have to rearrange it again or just have a smaller guestlist

[Innovindil]

 

 

My extended family holiday is booked for 17th July. Balls. 

[Leicester_Loyal]

When questioned whether there would be a two or four week delay to the June 21 reopening, Mr Raab said with a smile: "You'll have to wait for Monday for that one."

 

https://www.itv.com/news/2021-06-11/dominic-raab-tells-england-fans-at-euro-2020-dont-boo-your-team-for-taking-the-knee

 

 

I actually hate these ***** Talking about it and laughing like it's one big joke.

[Dunge]

I think this is an interesting article to throw into the mix:

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57431420

 

I was trying to find answers to this question on Google earlier in the week but couldn’t phrase it well enough to get decent responses.

 

Essentially, there will be variants - more variants. It’s inevitable. And the most successful ones will likely be those that manage to evade the vaccines to some degree because they’ll have a genetic advantage. Hopefully and theoretically we’ll be able to tweak the vaccines to fight them in future rounds. And something else that’s inevitable - we’ll hear about them. Probably before scientists have nailed down how bad they are in a number of ways. Even if the media don’t report them, social media will. And we’re talking over a course of years here. So we’ll all have to get a bit numb to it.

[leicsmac]

Well, having seem the last page or two of content I am really hoping that the vaccine will remain effective against whatever variants exist. Because it's reasonably clear that a lot of people have had enough and also simply do not understand that while humanity can and will do its best to ensure continuity and "normal life" for itself, the natural world out there offers no such guarantees and doesn't care. It can and will change the way the world is as and when it likes, and all we can do is adapt, change or perish.

 

Good luck, we'll probably need it.

Edited 12 June 2021 by leicsmac

[Nalis]

Everyone knows there is a lag of a one or two weeks between cases and hospitalisations but cases have been increasing for well over a month now and yet any increase in hospital figures is pretty much nominal. 

Edited 12 June 2021 by Nalis

[Soup]

7 hours ago, Corky said:

There wasn't mass testing in the first wave though so we don't know the true amount of cases from that time.

Absolutely bang on. This is the kind of thing that's scares some people to death. You then explain to them what you've just said and they ' the weather's nice isn't it' ' . As if they don't want to even consider that they're being fed horse shit. The media are a total disgrace

[Crinklyfox]

Statistically most infections are occurring amongst the unvaccinated, the younger population.  It's unlikely that this will result in a huge increase in deaths as the young are less likely to die from Covid than the elderly; however they are still able to suffer from 'long Covid' with symptoms that can affect their lives for months or years to come.

 

I'd love to see all the restrictions lifted, but I'm in the fortunate position of having had both doses of the vaccine.  There are many that have not so although all freedoms now would feel great to me IMO it's morally unacceptable to expose the younger percentage of our population to risk before they've had the chance to get vaccinated.  

[st albans fox]

20 minutes ago, Nalis said:

Everyone knows there is a lag of a one or two weeks between cases and hospitalisations but cases have been increasing for well over a month now and yet any increase in hospital figures is pretty much nominal. 

because the number of cases is still going  up from a low base

 

at the risk of upsetting @Costock_Fox

 

At the current rate of growth, as estimated on Thursday, the UK will reach 15,000 cases a day by 21 June and January levels of infections by late July - that is without any further relaxation of rules.

 

that’s just basic maths. If we carry in as we are now we will have more cases than we had in January by late July. With full removal on the 21st, just how many cases do you think there will be?? Until the authorities have proof that the vaccinated infected will prevent hospitalisations going up in ratio then how can they possibly relax further. The problem is that there are millions unvaccinated and this strain appears to be more virulent re hospitalisations then previous. 

 I fear for some of you. Too many in here seem to want us to go back to April 2020 or jan 2021. That’s what looks v possible if we remove all restrictions next week. 

 

I went to the pub last night 

I’m going to a party tonight 

 

it isn’t perfect but it certainly isn’t terrible!

 

if you have an event planned then I feel for you - but the stuff was all there ref 21st. It wasn’t ever cast in stone. I know a few family members that had weddings to arrange carried over from last year and they decided to push back to 2022.

 

govt needs to extend support for the sectors affected and bring back the legal restrictions on bringing court action for non payment of rents etc  

[st albans fox]

11 minutes ago, Soup said:

Absolutely bang on. This is the kind of thing that's scares some people to death. You then explain to them what you've just said and they ' the weather's nice isn't it' ' . As if they don't want to even consider that they're being fed horse shit. The media are a total disgrace

We had decent testing in the second wave - that’s why it showed a larger hump than the first wave, even though it’s likely the first wave was just as high as the second (if not bigger)

 

once they know for sure that hospitals will not become overwhelmed then i expect that they will relax - BUT if the scientists convince them that the risk of developing a local variant that evades the vaccine is high if hundreds of thousands of daily cases are allowed to to just happen then I guess we’re stuck in this until enough of us are vaccinated twice and the numbers fall back because of that. 

[Soup]

13 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

We had decent testing in the second wave - that’s why it showed a larger hump than the first wave, even though it’s likely the first wave was just as high as the second (if not bigger)

 

once they know for sure that hospitals will not become overwhelmed then i expect that they will relax - BUT if the scientists convince them that the risk of developing a local variant that evades the vaccine is high if hundreds of thousands of daily cases are allowed to to just happen then I guess we’re stuck in this until enough of us are vaccinated twice and the numbers fall back because of that. 

Decent testing yes but now they're almost dragging people off the streets and doing it at gun point. 

[st albans fox]

4 minutes ago, Soup said:

Decent testing yes but now they're almost dragging people off the streets and doing it at gun point. 

The ongoing ONS survey continues to give the most likely numbers .....has always been higher than the official recorded cases. (Not surprising)

 

anyway, it’s not the number of cases but the rate of rise and what they actually lead to ...... as much as we want to get back to how it was eighteen months ago, the reality is that we won’t be allowed to. and those who want to be allowed to ‘take their chances’ will be breaking the law by doing so in order that the NHS is protected and can try to carry out the non covid tasks it needs to. 

 

 

[Leicester_Loyal]

25 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

once they know for sure that hospitals will not become overwhelmed then i expect that they will relax - BUT if the scientists convince them that the risk of developing a local variant that evades the vaccine is high if hundreds of thousands of daily cases are allowed to to just happen then I guess we’re stuck in this until enough of us are vaccinated twice and the numbers fall back because of that. 

The vaccine doesn’t stop you getting the virus though, so how will it stop mutations? 
 

Someone else mentioned long covid, does the vaccine stop you getting that? Genuine question here as I don’t know the answer. 

[filbertway]

1 minute ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

The vaccine doesn’t stop you getting the virus though, so how will it stop mutations? 
 

Someone else mentioned long covid, does the vaccine stop you getting that? Genuine question here as I don’t know the answer. 

Same way in that it stops you getting seriously ill I suppose. Your immune system is better trained to fight the virus so less damage is done by either the virus or your immune system going mad.

 

I believe the hope is that if peoples bodies are successfully fighting the virus, then there will be less of it to transmit which means it becomes less transmissable.

 

It's not a binary definitely work every time thing. It just edges the odds in our favour over time. Like Pearson's small margin philosophy to football

 

 

[st albans fox]

6 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

The vaccine doesn’t stop you getting the virus though, so how will it stop mutations? 
 

Someone else mentioned long covid, does the vaccine stop you getting that? Genuine question here as I don’t know the answer. 

two questions currently without answers

 

why the science wants to wait 

 

the politicians have to make the call 

 

I guess we’re stuck in the middle.  
 

No delta variant = June 21 would be allowed.

 

Even if we had managed to keep it out (as we should), it would have arrived eventually. Would the ‘vaccinated population’ by that time have kept it at v low levels ?  But Without it having arrived, would the under forties be that bothered about getting vaccinated?

it’s a fluid situation which is why putting specific dates etc on timelines is fraught with danger politically.  you can write provisos underneath but not many  will read them and the media are guilty of shouting ‘freedom day’ etc which drives the narrative. 
 

the Welsh and Scots didn’t have this date in writing - what’s the situation in those countries re expected final relaxations ??

 

 

 

[VLC86]

1 hour ago, st albans fox said:

because the number of cases is still going  up from a low base

 

at the risk of upsetting @Costock_Fox

 

At the current rate of growth, as estimated on Thursday, the UK will reach 15,000 cases a day by 21 June and January levels of infections by late July - that is without any further relaxation of rules.

 

that’s just basic maths. If we carry in as we are now we will have more cases than we had in January by late July. With full removal on the 21st, just how many cases do you think there will be?? Until the authorities have proof that the vaccinated infected will prevent hospitalisations going up in ratio then how can they possibly relax further. The problem is that there are millions unvaccinated and this strain appears to be more virulent re hospitalisations then previous. 

 I fear for some of you. Too many in here seem to want us to go back to April 2020 or jan 2021. That’s what looks v possible if we remove all restrictions next week. 

 

I went to the pub last night 

I’m going to a party tonight 

 

it isn’t perfect but it certainly isn’t terrible!

 

if you have an event planned then I feel for you - but the stuff was all there ref 21st. It wasn’t ever cast in stone. I know a few family members that had weddings to arrange carried over from last year and they decided to push back to 2022.

 

govt needs to extend support for the sectors affected and bring back the legal restrictions on bringing court action for non payment of rents etc  

I understand cases are going up, that isn’t my argument. 

[st albans fox]

2 minutes ago, Costock_Fox said:

I understand cases are going up, that isn’t my argument. 

I meant that you highlighted that my posts generally elicit impending Armageddon ...... 

[AS78UK]

AZ being 60% effective means a significant proportion of over 50s are at high risk from the Delta variant.  Think this is why we will eventually see hospitalisation and deaths increase rapidly.   

[StanSP]

8 hours ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Yeah I doubt you'll get anywhere near 90 sadly, I think 50 as well tbh.

 

I know a few people in the same boat, rearranged from 12 months ago and they'll now have to rearrange it again or just have a smaller guestlist

 

Yeah we decided we're getting married regardless of number of people. Not moving and scrambling around for a date. 

 

7 hours ago, Innovindil said:

 

 

My extended family holiday is booked for 17th July. Balls. 

My wedding is 18th! 

[filbertway]

4 minutes ago, AS78UK said:

AZ being 60% effective means a significant proportion of over 50s are at high risk from the Delta variant.  Think this is why we will eventually see hospitalisation and deaths increase rapidly.   

Is that a made up stat or do you have a link? 

[st albans fox]

5 minutes ago, AS78UK said:

AZ being 60% effective means a significant proportion of over 50s are at high risk from the Delta variant.  Think this is why we will eventually see hospitalisation and deaths increase rapidly.   

Have I missed something ??

[AS78UK]

Read it somewhere, will try and see if I can find the link.   

[AS78UK]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57214596

[AS78UK]

Just now, AS78UK said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57214596

Under the real world evidence part of the article it quotes pfizer and AZ efficency.  This was early doors, so not sure if further research supercedes it.