Coronavirus Thread

[st albans fox]

12 minutes ago, AS78UK said:

Under the real world evidence part of the article it quotes pfizer and AZ efficency.  This was early doors, so not sure if further research supercedes it.  

 

There wasn’t enough evidence of AZ efficacy as cases were low and unsurprisingly amongst the unvaccinated age group. Remember Pfizer had a couple months start and also has more global data.  However, I have a feeling that AZ will turn out to be less effective than Pfizer. 

Edited 12 June 2021 by st albans fox

[Costock_Fox]

21 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

I meant that you highlighted that my posts generally elicit impending Armageddon ...... 

Sorry, I didn’t mean to be a dick. Whenever I read your posts in this thread you are obviously very risk averse when it comes to Covid.

 

Nobody is arguing case numbers won’t rise, what we are saying is that we need to trust that A- the group that get it generally won’t be too poorly and B- the group that we need to protect on the whole will be protected.

[Costock_Fox]

15 minutes ago, AS78UK said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57214596

What happened with the double vaccinated people in Bolton when this started? Must be like a scene from Dawn of the Dead up there at the minute.

 

Didnt they say that people who had both vaccines and still got it weren’t nearly as ill as those who hadn’t had it?

[Lionator]

1 hour ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

The vaccine doesn’t stop you getting the virus though, so how will it stop mutations? 
 

Someone else mentioned long covid, does the vaccine stop you getting that? Genuine question here as I don’t know the answer. 

It's 80-90% effective at blocking infection after two doses so it does stop you getting the virus. 

 

And yes it does, vaccination generally lead to much less severe symptoms. The ZOE app research has shown that those catching it after the vaccine are only getting ill for 3-4 days with cold symptoms compared to a full on 10 day illness which gives you a 1 in 10 chance of being hospitalised. 

[Lionator]

55 minutes ago, AS78UK said:

AZ being 60% effective means a significant proportion of over 50s are at high risk from the Delta variant.  Think this is why we will eventually see hospitalisation and deaths increase rapidly.   

Noooo this isn't true. The 60% is against symptomatic infection, it's even more effective (up to 95%) against severe illness. So even if an over 50 caught covid, the chance of it being anything other than a cold is tiny. Hospitalisations will rise because 80% of under 30's are unvaccinated and there are groups in communities where vaccination is less than 50% (eg Pakistani community in Blackburn) so there's enough unvaccinated people to cause a wave of cases which will inevitably lead to a wave of hospitalisations given the vaccination rate. If you get two vaccines you will not go to hospital because of covid although you may still do if you have significant co-morbidities. 

[st albans fox]

27 minutes ago, Costock_Fox said:

Sorry, I didn’t mean to be a dick. Whenever I read your posts in this thread you are obviously very risk averse when it comes to Covid.

 

Nobody is arguing case numbers won’t rise, what we are saying is that we need to trust that A- the group that get it generally won’t be too poorly and B- the group that we need to protect on the whole will be protected.

if the vaccines weren’t as effective then where would we be now ref the spread of this. Govt are getting a free ride ref the arrival of the delta variant.  If they open up completely and we develop a local strain that means the vaccines are only 20% effective ...... so we need another lockdown come October ........ and then Xmas is at risk again.  is that a sensible strategy?  If the non risk averse on here are wrong and we end up with another sh1tshow then it won’t matter to them. It will matter to the politicians and the nhs. 
 

Worth looking back at this thread last October when some were saying that it was fine to stay open and others were arguing that we needed larger restrictions.  It’s never black/white 
 

25 minutes ago, Costock_Fox said:

What happened with the double vaccinated people in Bolton when this started? Must be like a scene from Dawn of the Dead up there at the minute.

 

Didnt they say that people who had both vaccines and still got it weren’t nearly as ill as those who hadn’t had it?

Yes - all part of the data that they are reviewing but the timing isn’t great ref 21st 

[harpendenfox]

2 hours ago, Soup said:

Decent testing yes but now they're almost dragging people off the streets and doing it at gun point. 

You’ve gone a bit Daily Mail there chief 

[Soup]

1 hour ago, harpendenfox said:

You’ve gone a bit Daily Mail there chief 

Is that what they are saying? Fair play to them then

[RonnieTodger]

So long story short:

 

Government decide not to stop travel from India for their own gain. Then “Indian variant” reaches the UK and causes numbers to rise, but it’s in our best interests to delay lifting of restrictions because of their incompetence. 

 

Nice one. 

[FLAN]

4 minutes ago, RonnieTodger said:

So long story short:

 

Government decide not to stop travel from India for their own gain. Then “Indian variant” reaches the UK and causes numbers to rise, but it’s in our best interests to delay lifting of restrictions because of their incompetence. 

 

Nice one. 

Groundhog Day basically 

[st albans fox]

31 minutes ago, RonnieTodger said:

So long story short:

 

Government decide not to stop travel from India for their own gain. Then “Indian variant” reaches the UK and causes numbers to rise, but it’s in our best interests to delay lifting of restrictions because of their incompetence. 

 

Nice one. 

Seems to sum it up pretty well .....

[Corky]

2 hours ago, RonnieTodger said:

So long story short:

 

Government decide not to stop travel from India for their own gain. Then “Indian variant” reaches the UK and causes numbers to rise, but it’s in our best interests to delay lifting of restrictions because of their incompetence. 

 

Nice one. 

Yes, basically this. You were told to not see anyone, not go beyond "local" but people were seemingly able to fly from other parts of the world.

[Izzy]

2 hours ago, RonnieTodger said:

So long story short:

 

Government decide not to stop travel from India for their own gain. Then “Indian variant” reaches the UK and causes numbers to rise, but it’s in our best interests to delay lifting of restrictions because of their incompetence. 

 

Nice one. 

What exactly do you mean by “for their own gain?”

 

 

[Facecloth]

2 minutes ago, Izzy said:

What exactly do you mean by “for their own gain?”

 

 

I don't know if there's confirmation, but there's an idea that Johnson wanted a trade deal and part of it was leaving the travel corridor open to appease India, rather than close it and try and prevent the variant getting here in large numbers.

[Nalis]

6 hours ago, st albans fox said:

because the number of cases is still going  up from a low base

 

at the risk of upsetting @Costock_Fox

 

At the current rate of growth, as estimated on Thursday, the UK will reach 15,000 cases a day by 21 June and January levels of infections by late July - that is without any further relaxation of rules.

 

that’s just basic maths. If we carry in as we are now we will have more cases than we had in January by late July. With full removal on the 21st, just how many cases do you think there will be?? Until the authorities have proof that the vaccinated infected will prevent hospitalisations going up in ratio then how can they possibly relax further. The problem is that there are millions unvaccinated and this strain appears to be more virulent re hospitalisations then previous. 

 I fear for some of you. Too many in here seem to want us to go back to April 2020 or jan 2021. That’s what looks v possible if we remove all restrictions next week. 

 

I went to the pub last night 

I’m going to a party tonight 

 

it isn’t perfect but it certainly isn’t terrible!

 

if you have an event planned then I feel for you - but the stuff was all there ref 21st. It wasn’t ever cast in stone. I know a few family members that had weddings to arrange carried over from last year and they decided to push back to 2022.

 

govt needs to extend support for the sectors affected and bring back the legal restrictions on bringing court action for non payment of rents etc  

I didnt mention anything about June 21st, it was more a point about those a month ago screaming that hospitalisations would be going through the roof by this stage, hope those who predicted it arent too disappointed it hasnt come to fruition.

[Izzy]

10 minutes ago, Facecloth said:

I don't know if there's confirmation, but there's an idea that Johnson wanted a trade deal and part of it was leaving the travel corridor open to appease India, rather than close it and try and prevent the variant getting here in large numbers.

Ah ok. 
If true, I guess you could argue that decision was made for the benefit of the UK economy rather than ‘their’ (the governments) personal gain.

Either way, looks like a bad call in hindsight 

 

[st albans fox]

1 minute ago, Nalis said:

I didnt mention anything about June 21st, it was more a point about those a month ago screaming that hospitalisations would be going through the roof by this stage, hope those who predicted it arent too disappointed it hasnt come to fruition.

Who would be disappointed?

 

there is a difference between people on here making estimates and the official ones ! 

[Facecloth]

6 minutes ago, Izzy said:

Ah ok. 
If true, I guess you could argue that decision was made for the benefit of the UK economy rather than ‘their’ (the governments) personal gain.

Either way, looks like a bad call in hindsight 

 

Well it would be their gain as they could boast they got another trade deal. And overall locking up will damage the economy, trade deal or not.

 

We've been in some kind of lockdown for over a year. They stopped travel from other countries with better infection figures. So theirs no hindsight, this should have been seen beforehand and not allowed to happen.

Edited 12 June 2021 by Facecloth

[Izzy]

33 minutes ago, Facecloth said:

Well it would be their gain as they could boast they got another trade deal. And overall locking up will damage the economy, trade deal or not.

I’m not sure the government want to secure better trade deals for the UK economy just so they can ‘boast’ about it. 

 

[Facecloth]

1 minute ago, Izzy said:

I’m not sure the government want to secure better trade deals for the UK economy just so they can ‘boast’ about it. 

 

You sure about that?

 

You're a nice guy Izzy but you do tend to look for the good in people even when it's clearly not there. It's not a bad thing to hope people are nice and start from that stand point, but after everything I would have thought that belief would be wavering with this government.

Edited 12 June 2021 by Facecloth

[Izzy]

33 minutes ago, Facecloth said:

You sure about that?

 

You're a nice guy Izzy but you do tend to look for the good in people even when it's clearly not there. It's not a bad thing to hope people are nice and start from that stand point, but after everything I would have thought that belief would be wavering with this government.

Yeah you’re probably right.

I make a pretty decent living by looking for the good in people and it generally serves me well.

My belief in this government is irrelevant really. I can’t control things outside of my sphere of influence so I don’t spend much energy worrying about it.

Just play the hand I’m dealt and get on with it best I can really.

[Otis]

1 hour ago, Facecloth said:

Well it would be their gain as they could boast they got another trade deal. And overall locking up will damage the economy, trade deal or not.

 

We've been in some kind of lockdown for over a year. They stopped travel from other countries with better infection figures. So theirs no hindsight, this should have been seen beforehand and not allowed to happen.

Remember at the time in India the 1000s of deaths a day and 100,000s + cases yet they where on the amber list.

In Portugal the smallest change in infection rate = straight to the amber list.

This current situation is purely down to Boris.

The British public have had restrictions of some kind for the last year and a half, yet he makes decisions such as this.

[Nalis]

1 hour ago, st albans fox said:

Who would be disappointed?

 

there is a difference between people on here making estimates and the official ones ! 

Fair enough, I'm probably being a bit facetious on reflection

[Babylon]

8 hours ago, Costock_Fox said:

Sorry, I didn’t mean to be a dick. Whenever I read your posts in this thread you are obviously very risk averse when it comes to Covid.

 

Nobody is arguing case numbers won’t rise, what we are saying is that we need to trust that A- the group that get it generally won’t be too poorly and B- the group that we need to protect on the whole will be protected.

And that’s why they want to wait, to make damn sure that’s the case. 

[Costock_Fox]

5 minutes ago, Babylon said:

And that’s why they want to wait, to make damn sure that’s the case. 

That’s true but we have data to show 2x vaccines give high protection.